BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

After a period of erratic poll results from various outfits, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate appears to be recovering its equilibrium.

This week’s 51-49 Newspoll result has caused a slight moderation in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which blew out to 52.2-47.8 last week on the back of strong result for Labor from ReachTEL. The 0.5% shift has had a bigger-than-usual effect on the seat projection, with Labor slipping four seats to barely make it to majority government status. This amounts to one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. There are two new data points for leaders’ ratings, from Newspoll and Essential, and they’ve caused the trendlines to continue moving in the directions they were already headed – inexorably downwards for both leaders on net approval, with a gently narrowing trend on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,558 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

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  1. guytaur

    The weather put a lot off the Sydney event but I would have thought at least 15K if not 20K.

    Lots of young people as well, or am I just getting older?

  4. mike

    I posted a photo of when the march was at Broadway. I would put it higher too. However I am no expert crowd counter 🙂

  5. Pegasus

    Yes, I read that and enjoyed it. It is hard for some dry heads to visualise an economy that does not depend on the usual rape and pillage of the environment.

  7. [Damage to Denison ballot papers
    On Saturday evening the returning officer for Denison conducted a count of 3,727
    postal votes. In preparation for the count, postal vote certificate envelopes were
    opened with a letter opening machine.

    As a result of improper operation of the machine and poor quality control
    measures, 2,338 postal ballot papers were damaged.

    While 2,175 ballot papers were able to be repaired and admitted to the count, 163
    were irreparably damaged and have had to be treated as informal.
    A range of candidates are likely to have been affected, but Liberal Party candidates disproportionately so.

    As Electoral Commissioner I bear ultimate responsibility for this extensive
    procedural failure, and I apologise unreservedly to Denison candidates and voters. ]

    How can these votes be informal? They were real votes, the Commissioner can’t just wash them down the loo.

  8. MTBW

    Thanks, not something I usually do but the crowd made you feel that you aren’t alone in your concerns over the Abbott Government. Very friendly atmosphere as well.

  11. guytaur

    The photo you posted is the view I was talking about but from about 100m further on. The road dips so you get a great view.

  12. As a result of improper operation of the machine and poor quality control measures, 2,338 postal ballot papers were damaged.

    I’ve got mental images of machinery whirring and shreds of paper spewing out like confetti with poor electoral commission people running around going “omg!” “what have we done!”

    It’s very unfortunate but I can’t help giggling.

  14. lizzie,
    [Material from W-Wilson and Milne is the reason I wondered how the Greens had “destroyed” Tassie.]
    It is interesting that a party considered to be irrelevant is responsible for everything evil lol

    Perhaps, it is something to do with maintaining the status quo / business as usual?

  15. Mr Wish-Wilson may want to revisit this.

    [The majority of Tasmanians will be driving electric cars, made in Australia…]

  18. Pegasus

    If only people would try to think outside their comfortable little boxes. Malcolm Turnbull and Greg Hunt are typical examples of the terrified little men.

  19. Jackol,

    That letter opening machine will need remedial counselling to adjust its poor attitude to quality outcomes.

  25. 😆 Richo the Rat and Michael Kroger , shock horror ,declare that the South Australian electoral peeps should be taken out and shot. Because ? The Liberals didn’t win.

  26. From the article linked above:

    [British singer Billy Bragg, currently on tour in Australia, was a surprise guest. He sang a song and lamented the recent remarks mining magnate Gina Rinehart made praising former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
    All mentions of Ms Rinehart’s name were met with booing.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/march-in-march-tony-abbott-gina-rinehart-cop-blasts-in-sydney-protest-20140316-34v63.html#ixzz2w6kql4mQ%5D

  27. ru,

    Tassie is the perfect place for electric cars.

    On the mainland the extension leads would need to be far too long.

  28. Jackol@2362

    As a result of improper operation of the machine and poor quality control measures, 2,338 postal ballot papers were damaged.


    I’ve got mental images of machinery whirring and shreds of paper spewing out like confetti with poor electoral commission people running around going “omg!” “what have we done!”

    It’s very unfortunate but I can’t help giggling.

    When you put it like that, you have got me giggling too!

    Was there no ‘off’ switch? Couldn’t someone pull the plug out? Oh… the panic! 😆

  29. lizzie
    [If only people would try to think outside their comfortable little boxes.]
    Unfortunately, the fortress mentality is alive and well in many quarters of our society.

    Questioning your world view can be confronting because then you might need to question who you really are.

  32. Pegasus,

    Your name is Pegasus,
    Your name means horse.
    If you really want to question who you really are.
    Try “Neigh” sayer

  33. MTBW

    Yep, plenty of home made placards with diverse messages & a bunch of people with boat shaped costumes with different names such as HMAS Media Diversity, HMAS Ausaid & HMAS World Heritage. A good dig at Abbott’s stop the boats rant.

  34. [David Stevens ‏@TheDavidStevens 4h
    Compare the Liberals to Nazis and Abbott to Hitler but don’t dare call Julia a witch guys… #MarchInMarch #pathetic pic.twitter.com/c4kCQJO6Pk ]

    Was the LOTO and senior Labor frontbenchers standing alongside it? No.

    Btw this guy identifies as a Defence contractor, but is so openly anti Labor and anti the previous Labor govt. I thought contractors carrying out work on behalf of the govt had to uphold the same non partisan professionalism as public servants.

  35. Its all very good to have protest marches but are they actually attending by anyone that voted for the government?

    Also how many of them even live in a marginal seat or one held by the government?

    It seems to me that the only people protesting would never have voted for the government to begin with thus can be dismissed as just its opponents.

    I once suggested to a Union rep during the Workchoices protest that they should do a survey of protesters to try and show how many people protesting actually lived in government held seats.

  36. [And as Kaveh Akbari, a refugee speaking on Australia’s treatment of asylum seekers, handed the microphone over to Billy Bragg, the amalgamation of social issues was made all the more stark.

    Bragg was incensed at comments from Gina Rinehart – the mere mention of her name eliciting loud boos – made earlier in month urging Australia to adopt the spirit of Thatcher.

    Demonising the welfare state was the “most pernicious” of all Thatcher’s policies, Bragg said, launching into an impassioned defence of the NHS. “I send this song out to Gina Rinehart and those people who think that everyone on welfare is somehow cheating them.” And he launched into a rendition of To Have and To Have Not.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/16/anarchists-and-babies-and-all-in-between-gather-to-march-in-march?CMP=twt_gu

  38. mexicanbeemer @2385

    [Its all very good to have protest marches but are they actually attending by anyone that voted for the government?]

    You missed the point, it’s all about the visuals. 10’s of thousands prepared to get off their respective bums & say f off Tony.

    If the Abbott government was only halfway reasonable it wouldn’t even have happened.

  39. MB

    To your point

    @daveyk317: TENS OF THOUSANDS of AUSSIES marched today too >100k protesters. Only 10k in #Ukraine #MarchInMarch #auspol @7NewsSydney #CorruptedMSM

  40. mb:

    If the protests are illustrative of genuine community concern ie the YRAW campaign or those for indigenous reconciliation, then I think you’d be mad to dismiss them as simply opponents.

  42. mikehilliard

    Yes i understand that but if you have 10,000 and a quarter were shown to be from seats held by the government then the government would find it harder to dismiss it has the Surrey Hills/Belman/Fitzroy crowd.

  44. [You missed the point, it’s all about the visuals.]

    There’s that also, but I still don’t think that is so salient. Think about all those protests against Australian asylum seeker policy and yet polling still supports harsh deterrent policies.

  45. Fessy

    This is why i asked are surveys carried out to see if any of these people are actual swing voters or live in government seats as if not then the effort would be potentially lost as the stock jocks and Tone would dismiss it as just the Surrey Hills/Fitzroy set.

  46. The point of protest marches is to allow the public to think that criticism of the government (or whatever is being protested against) is a normal, valid state. And protests are hard to filter through a biased OM perspective (not that they don’t try).

    Protests almost never directly affect governments or other entities unless they are very broadly based and persistent.

    But protests can affect public opinion. If it appears “normal” to criticize the government it can start other non-protesting members of the public to start thinking “maybe it’s ok if I think this government is crap and expressing it is ok”. “I’m not alone in being unhappy about the government.” Talking about protest action (as a topical current event) can lead into social networks adjusting their consensus attitude. Protests themselves can be a social experience and initiate new contacts among like-minded people.

    Of course protests can backfire if they are poorly attended or get hijacked by fringe loon groups.

  47. Zoomster

    [I’m not sure that’s true. Of course, some do – but most are lodging a protest vote against Labor, and others just assume that the Greens are for the environment and that’s good.]

    I think there is a stable Green vote of approx. 8%, with the further 2-8% people disaffected with the major parties. I get this because when a somewhat reasonable minor party pops up, in recent times PUP, they lose about 4% of their vote. Some of this would, of course, be people who’d never vote Greens, but I think a substantial portion of PUP voters are habitual minor party voters.

    I don’t agree with bemused, Centre’s and I think your contention that we can blame the Greens for “taking” Labor vote. It’s not the Greens fault that Labor’s policies don’t suit the 8-14% of voters who vote Green. Centre, for that matter, would probably argue, until the last second, against Labor adopting some policies that may draw them in (though I’m aware both you and bemused generally support such policies).

    I believe it’s a tactical error to dismiss the Greens and their voter’s concerns out-of-hand. I think over their time they have contributed quite a few positive things, but may be reaching the end of their usefulness. If an ALP leader rejects the possibility of forming a coalition with the Greens for all time they may end up eating their own words before their career is over.

  49. mb:

    I’m pretty sure from memory that there was polling on the impact of Workchoices back in the day. By Labor and the unions at the very least.

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