BludgerTrack: 50.7-49.3 to Labor

After wildly divergent results from Nielsen and Newspoll, it’s far from clear which of the two was the rogue, or if both were. For the time being, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate splits the difference.

The enterprise of poll aggregation has been thrown into a spin after one major pollster, Nielsen, reported a 53-47 lead to the Coalition last week, and another, Newspoll, reported a 54-46 lead to Labor this week – leaving a 1% gap between the outer edges of the two error margins (UPDATE: Nielsen was actually 52-48, so scratch that about the gap between the error margins). BludgerTrack plots a course through the middle, with some residual influence of scattered results from Morgan and Essential, to give Labor a 50.7-49.3 lead after a dead heat last week. However, that only converts to a two-seat Labor gain on the seat projection, with one seat added from the New South Wales tally and another from Queensland, leaving the Coalition one seat shy of an absolute majority. Labor’s primary vote gain comes mostly at the expense of the Greens, who lose a bit of air after inflating over previous weeks, while the Palmer United Party maintains a slow downward trajectory to record its weakest result since the election.

The dire result for the Coalition from Newspoll was reflected in the leadership ratings, which have caused Tony Abbott’s trend on net satisfaction to point downwards again after levelling off in the early new year period. The trendlines on preferred prime minister had likewise flattened out over the past month or two, with Tony Abbott record a lead of slightly below double figures, but it now looks to be narrowing again, at least for the time being. The one constant is Bill Shorten’s net satisfaction, the only measure in the Newspoll numbers that is not off trend. Shorten is accordingly down to a new low, as he has been with every update so far this year. He has, however, been spared the ignominy of crossing paths with Abbott, which he came within 0.3% of doing last week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,632 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.7-49.3 to Labor”

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  2. [However, that only converts to a two-seat Labor gain on the seat projection, with one seat added from the New South Wales tally and another from Queensland, leaving the Coalition one seat shy of an absolute majority. ]

    It’d almost be worth the aggro to see how Abbott would handle a hung Parliament.

  5. Morning all. Today is D day for Qantas and Alan Joyce, the D standing for dumb. For Australian taxpayers it stands for “dodgy”.

    The government will try to downplay the risks of handing a guarantee to borrow billions to a company with a junk debt status. In the past decade almost a dozen national airlines have gone broke and are no longer flying, including Swiss and Belgian to name a few. Why do we believe ours are immune to the same forces?

    The real mystery is how do Joyce and the Qantas board keep their jobs? The real answer is, thanks to private equity, they cannot be removed. This is little more than a management raid.

  7. From poacher to gamekeeper in one fell swoop. This photo from the Cadbury $16m government handout announcement, after Cadbury had sponsored Tony Abbott’s PolliePedal.

    But we are assure there was no conflict of interest, move along now, nothing to see.

    [Mr Furnival had worked for Cadbury and months earlier had lobbied the Tasmanian government on behalf of the company to secure $400,000 for a visitor centre.

    Pictures located by the Seven Network show Mr Furnival was at the Cadbury announcement in August sitting with Mr Abbott and other senior figures.
    The pictures suggest Mr Furnival, who went on to hold a key post in the Abbott government with critical responsibility for food policy, was central to Coalition discussions resulting in a promised transfer of taxpayer funds to the company.
    Mr Abbott announced the $16 million pledge during the election campaign. He has since refused to say what links he had to Mr Furnival and what role Mr Furnival might have played in brokering the proposed transfer of millions in taxpayer funds to a multinational-owned company.
    Also sitting with the pair was Liberal Senate leader, Eric Abetz, and Liberal veteran Philip Ruddock.
    ]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-and-axed-man-at-cadbury-photo-op-20140226-33inb.html#ixzz2uSiGWKk9

  8. Socrates

    D-Day for Qantas and on the same day over the Tasman sea.

    [Air NZ profit soars 40pc

    Air NZ has this morning unveiled a record interim financial result for the first half of the 2014 financial year.

    The airline says its net profit after tax was $140m – a 40 per cent jump on the same period the year before.

    It has hiked its interim dividend by 50 per cent and will pay out 4.5 cents per share to shareholders.]
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11210709

  13. Poroti

    Thanks. Virgin is the same – profits and market share up. Kudos to Crikey blogger Ben Sandilands of Plane Talking for covering Qantas problems in detail for a long time.

    I wonder who the Qantas private equity investor suckers were?

  18. Qantas no doubt will be the focus of the day.

    But Labor should pursue Abbott on his Cadbury foray with Mr Furnival. As they say a picture is worth a thousand words.

  21. I was wrong about who owns Qantas, forgetting that the private equity offer got ditched. These are the investment geniuses that own most Qantas share. More than 70% of the share are held by four groups.
    [The largest Qantas shareholder—with 22.72 percent of the company—is J. P. Morgan Nominees Australia, a division of the global J. P. Morgan investment house.
    The second largest is HSBC Custody Nominees with 18.91 percent. Next is National Nominees with an 18.26 percent stake. The fourth largest is Citicorp Nominees.]
    So Australian taxpayers will be guaranteeing the debts of foreign investors who goofed.

  23. How Warren Truss solves problems —

    [Permits for oversized haulage that used to take up to three days to process can now take 28 days.]

    […The problems started with a new system introduced this month.

    Permits have not been handled by the states’ NSW’s Roads and Maritime Services and VicRoads but by the National Heavy Vehicle Regulator since February 10.]

    [..Member for Indi Cathy McGowan took up the issue with deputy Prime Minister and Infrastructure and Regional Development Minister Warren Truss in Parliament on Tuesday.

    That followed complaints from several constituents.

    Ms McGowan said Mr Truss had said he shared her concern and had found an interim solution with the states reverting to the old system while national issues were resolved.

    “It is good to hear that the minister has a solution,” she said.

    “I trust he will implement it quickly so our trucking businesses can get back to work.”]

    [..But Mr Walker said nothing had changed, despite the assurances.

    “All applications are still subject to national regulations,” he said.

    “I spoke to VicRoads on Tuesday and the process is still going to take 28 days.

    “All they’ve done is hand power back to the states, but the states still have to apply the new regulations and laws.”]

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/2116375/permits-a-load-of-pain-for-truckies/?cs=11

  24. Psephos’s reach for the far-fetched hypothesis on the causality of Reza Berati’s death reminds me of the role played in the ideas we entertain of cultural consonance.

    As a small child of a politically engaged Labor Catholic family, I shed more than a tear at the death of JFK and of his brother Bobby as well. I had no reason to doubt the dominant theory that some fanatical fellow traveller of the evil Communist Castro had struck down the US President. Of course, I was very young, and ignorant of almost everything important at the time, and a victim of celebrity culture in which the lives of the glitterati are far more admirable, cautionary and tragic than the undistinguished folk who die in banality without mention in the boss class press.

    Years later, when I knew quite a bit more about the context — the campaign of imperialist aggression against Cuba; the attempts at economic sabotage and assassination against Castro personally — this rather strengthened my view of the theory. Doubtless, a supporter of Cuba would feel justified at striking at JFK. In my twenties, I heard it put that in fact, Castro’s agents had apprehended a hit squad sent by the Mafia to kill him, and after a stiff talking to, and threats to their potential to play extras in The Godfather, had induced them to instead kill their client.

    This theory, though seriously implausible, had a lot going for it. It had the kind of “this time it’s personal” / what goes around comes around narrative tidiness that generally only occurs in cinematic romps. I liked the idea of a return to sender assassination. So with a smile, I’d whimsically put this from time to time. Yet it’s almost certainly no more credible than the official theory, and possibly less so.

    I’m pretty sure I know why Psephos proposed his piece of malicious whimsy last night. He’d love it to be true. Yet Occam’s Razor suggests that “bollocks” is the right call. It’s utterly counter-intuitive and there is far stronger evidence for alternative causality.

    It’s really about his cultural impulses and the corrosive effect these can have on perspicacity and the unwillingness to appear foolish in public.

  27. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    MUST READ! Tara Moss exposes what went on inside Manus.
    http://taramoss.com/manus-island-insiders-report/
    Mark Kenny – Fiona Nash is in a mess.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/fiona-nash-has-been-poor-the-pm-must-be-worried-20140226-33il1.html
    Oh dear! Now some evidence of Furnival’s direct role in the deals with Cadburys.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-and-axed-man-at-cadbury-photo-op-20140226-33inb.html
    And yet another dock-up by Nash.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fiona-nash-admits-resource-library-wasnt-duplicated-20140227-33iu2.html
    A good Peter Fitzsimons contribution on the toll often taken on high profile sports stars.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/swimming/grant-hackett-the-latest-swimmer-to-fall-victim-to-the-sports-relentless-demands-20140226-33i6s.html
    If this is not a disgrace then nothing is!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/financial-planners-free-to-flout-advice-rules-due-for-repeal-20140226-33ige.html
    Some intra-government introspection on the proposed legislation for drunken assaults.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberal-mp-peter-phelps-says-harsher-drink-laws-no-deterrent-for-steroidmunching-types-20140226-33ia1.html
    If you don’t want to get angry don’t read these.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/royal-commission-tears-as-woman-tells-of-abuse-in-parramatta-girls–dungeon-20140226-33h5n.html
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/26/royal-commission-abuse-nsw-government-girls-homes
    Virgin accuses the government of “picking winners”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/26/virgin-qantas-debt-guarantee-worth-100m

  28. Section 2 . . .

    I wonder if there has been any research on what motivates this use of steroids.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/young-men-dying-from-heart-disease-linked-to-steroid-use-20140226-33ije.html
    Michael Gordon’s editorial reckons that yesterday may have been a turning point for Shorten.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/coalition-stumbles-on-high-moral-ground-20140226-33ihq.html
    And The Guardian writes it up well, too.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/26/shorten-accuses-faux-patriotism-campbell-cover-up-
    Kristina Keneally says good riddance to George Pell.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/george-pell–the-view-from-the-pew-20140226-33h07.html
    Alan Moir on how Qantas may cut costs further.

    Cathy Wilcox welcomes Pell to the Vatican.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    David Rowe has the toy soldier as a political football.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    A very clever one from Pat Campbell on Qantas “baggage” handling.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
    And Ron Tandberg has his say on the potential Qantas ownership change.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  29. And from the Land of the Free –

    Same sex marriage ban in Texas ruled unconstitutional.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/02/26/same-sex-marriage-ban-in-texas-ruled-unconstitutional-two-tweets-say-it-all-lgbt/
    How’s this for hypocrisy!!
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/02/26/exxon-mobile-ceo-suing-his-own-company-to-stop-fracking-at-least-in-his-neighborhood/
    Guns again. How mad are they?
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/02/25/supreme-court-inflicts-flesh-wound-nra-kids-guns/
    The FBI is perfect and beyond reproach. Just ask them!
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/02/26/will-fbis-win-streak-stop-at-150-0-or-does-their-cheating-continue/
    Policing New Jersey style.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/02/secret-video-reveals-cop-beat-defenseless
    The Repugs are squirming over the proposed Arizona anti-gay legislation.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/02/26/1280562/-Republicans-squirm-over-Arizona-anti-gay-bill
    Vale Chris Christie. But look at the two front runners for 2016!
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/02/26/1280581/-Poll-Republicans-don-t-want-Christie-to-run-in-2016

  30. Fran

    I was raised in a lefty house and never, ever believed the rubbish about Kennedy.

    Perhaps more amazingly my BRILLIANT history teacher in class was sceptical about the shooting of Robert Kennedy, thinking it an election stunt. She naturally withdrew the comment when he died.

    Just for interest my teacher had been a Jewish refugee arriving in Australia as a child BEFORE WWII, amidst quite a lot of prejudice known as a “refo”

  32. BK

    Re “How’s this for hypocrisy!!” . Our Twiggy Forrest is in to a bit of that as well .

    [Oh, the irony! Twiggy fights bid to mine his farm

    Mr Forrest, 51, founder and executive chairman of Fortescue Metals Group, is suing to block attempts to search for uranium on his Minderoo Station and last month failed in an attempt to halt sand mining on the property.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/oh-the-irony-twiggy-fights-bid-to-mine-his-farm-20130225-2f0im.html#ixzz2uSti6Y2U

  33. [ Socrates
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 7:29 am | Permalink

    In the past decade almost a dozen national airlines have gone broke and are no longer flying, including Swiss and Belgian to name a few. Why do we believe ours are immune to the same forces?

    The real mystery is how do Joyce and the Qantas board keep their jobs? The real answer is, thanks to private equity, they cannot be removed. This is little more than a management raid.]

    A buyout involving former Qantas MD, Geoff Dixon, Singleton and others (who already have joint business ventures with a number of Sydney pubs) has long been foreshadowed.

    Wouldn’t it be ‘interesting’ if the Irishman and his staunch tory Chairman Leigh Clifford got everything they wanted from the abbott tories and then Dixon, Singleton & anors pounced and took it all away from them with a buyout?

  34. So easy to forget the details, isn’t it, Morrison, when you’re searching for an accusation.

    [It was left to Morrison to respond, and pose the rhetorical question: ”Why didn’t the previous government ask for someone like General Campbell to go and fix their mess?” What he forgot was that the previous government did ask someone like General Campbell to do precisely that.

    The former head of defence, Angus Houston, was a member of the panel appointed by Julia Gillard to propose how to stop the boats – and attempts to implement the panel’s recommendations were frustrated from the start by Morrison and the Coalition.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/coalition-stumbles-on-high-moral-ground-20140226-33ihq.html#ixzz2uSxGx1Um

  35. [I’m pretty sure I know why Psephos proposed his piece of malicious whimsy last night. He’d love it to be true. Yet Occam’s Razor suggests that “bollocks” is the right call. It’s utterly counter-intuitive and there is far stronger evidence for alternative causality.]

    Full of self doubt and angst our Psephos. One needs to remember he is of the ‘right’ not just always right.

  37. poroti@8

    Socrates

    D-Day for Qantas and on the same day over the Tasman sea.

    Air NZ profit soars 40pc

    Air NZ has this morning unveiled a record interim financial result for the first half of the 2014 financial year.

    The airline says its net profit after tax was $140m – a 40 per cent jump on the same period the year before.

    It has hiked its interim dividend by 50 per cent and will pay out 4.5 cents per share to shareholders.


    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11210709

    Hey – poroti – must be about time Air NZ bought another airline and did their collectives arses and wallets – like they did with Ansett ? 🙂

    Then get nationalsed again ?

  38. Of interest today is what is Labor going to do in Question Time. What is better? Making a stand over the Speaker or more argy bargy over Senator Conroy to get some airtime over Nash>

    Personally I think they should go for the Speaker. Doing so will mean HOR coverage will be about the speaker and the substantive news would come from Estimates thus undoing the Government’s narrative

  40. mikehilliard@12

    Morning all

    I know I’m a bit slow on the uptake but can someone tell me what ESJ@4 is on about.

    When you work it out (SA election?) maybe you can tell us more broadly what he/she is ‘on’ or indeed ‘on about’.

  41. “@political_alert: Member for Griffith, Terri Butler, will give her maiden speech in the House of Representatives this morning at 9.40am #auspol”

  42. Something has to be done to KeroHead Bishop and done soon.

    It is getting beyond a joke with her.

    I can’t believe the media coverage of her performance.

    Do it soon Labor, do it soon.

  44. guy

    [Personally I think they should go for the Speaker.]

    I think that’s a waste of time.

    The only thing that will remove Bronny is a change of government.

  45. victoria

    Yes why today is a good day to go for the Speaker. Government will try and use Conroy as the secondary news thus blocking other news.

    Less news time to fill and better to fill with argy bargy with the Speaker than more on Conroy.

    Once out of news cycle harder for LnP to manufacture outrage.

  47. Would I be right in saying that Qantas wants guarantees so that it can destroy its workforce and then sell-out to a foreign owner? And the benefit to taxpayers is????

  48. Ctar

    Yes agree about chances of removal. However some standards have to be maintained. Pressure on her role could stop the worst outrageous trashing of tradition.

  50. Socrates@21

    I was wrong about who owns Qantas, forgetting that the private equity offer got ditched. These are the investment geniuses that own most Qantas share. More than 70% of the share are held by four groups.

    The largest Qantas shareholder—with 22.72 percent of the company—is J. P. Morgan Nominees Australia, a division of the global J. P. Morgan investment house.
    The second largest is HSBC Custody Nominees with 18.91 percent. Next is National Nominees with an 18.26 percent stake. The fourth largest is Citicorp Nominees.


    So Australian taxpayers will be guaranteeing the debts of foreign investors who goofed.

    No doubt ‘some’ foreign investors in the above (but currently they have to be limited to 49.9% by the Qantas Act), but generally when you see ‘nominee’ type shareholders they are holdings held on behalf of institutional investors, Super funds and the like. So….there would be heaps of local money in those nominees companies.

    But your broader question is valid – if, eerrm, when Qantas it taken over and it probably will be by foreigners – will taxpayers still guarantee their debts?

    And the debts of foreign owned Virgin. What about REX – after all everyone wants a so called ‘level playing field’.

    Will Qantas use the ‘financial firepower’ of the taxpayer G/- to bankrupt REX in a further price war?

    O what a web abbott is weaving for taxpayers…..

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