Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

As other pollsters find support for Labor trending downwards, Newspoll breaks ranks with the Abbott government’s worst poll result since it came to power.

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. [His diary at the time lists each day the pilots he knew killed in the Battle.]

    There were only two ways more certain of being killed in WW2 than being a fighter pilot in the Battle of Britain. One was to be a Japanese kamikaze pilot (where being killed was the whole idea), and the other was to serve in German U-boats, where about 80% of all who served were killed. Even Red Army infantry had better survival rates. Bomber Command crew also had very high loss rates, but not as high as fighter pilots. Being on a bomber was in some ways worse, though, because survival was almost entirely a matter of luck, whereas fighter pilots could defend themselves.

  2. [I want the bugger crucified just on general principles. :(]

    While I oppose capital punishment, (amongst other things it makes you no better than an American), if there is any that need doing, I am more incensed by Nash.

    I think her behaviour is an example of (structural) corruption which is far worse than hillsong incompetence.

    As a (jnr) Minister for Health to actually put the profits of big international drug (sugar) pedlars ahead of the health of Australians (supposedly her responsibility) is unforgivable and should result in dismissal.

  3. GG

    [An alleged bloodbath where no blood was spilled is evidence of nothing more than rhetorical flourish. The alleged loser of said debate has now been promoted and the Catholic faith and influence is stronger than it’s ever been in this country. So, clearly the atheists are winning!]

    It seems to me that one can put forward the following theories for Pell’s new job.

    1. The Vatican has no extradition treaty with Australia, so he is safe from more questioning on sensitive matters
    2. Pell is an embarrassment in public. In private he can’t make the Church look bad
    3. He has the kind of people skills that make Abbott seem unremarkable.Pairing him up with a ledger seems an obvious choice

  4. Did G.G. just imply that Catholicism is extremely influential in Australia now because our incompetent arse hat and moronic wank stain of a Prime Minister happens to be a Catholic?

  5. I gather even the devil (Rupert Murdoch is one of his current forms) tweeted with congratulations to Pell.

    That surely must be a worry to the Church!!

  6. [It seems to me that one can put forward the following theories for Pell’s new job.]

    Or, to be fair:

    4. That he is a competent bureaucrat who might actually do a good job of cleaning up the Vatican’s scandalous financial mess.

  7. The role of Fascists in the Ukrainian revolution
    _______________________
    Our media seems rather shy of looking at the role on the streets of Kiev and elsewhere in the Ukraine ,of an alarming range of local fascists groups,and a kind of “international brigade” of like-minded thugs from all over Europe..

    .The media seems happy to paint the picture of the groups on the streets as liberal democrats,but the article by American-Jewish writer,Blumenthal has given some alarming details of the facists groups now operating there.
    ,and very prominent in the chaotic situation there now

    Blumenthal is a noted US writer on Eastern Europe and the Middle East and has recently written “Goliath” a study of the far-right in Israel,which is a best seller in the USA

    He goes as far as to speak of neo-Nazis in the forefront of the Ukranian revolution,and the boost this will give to similar groups elsewhere in Europe

    \http://www.alternet.org/tea-party-and-right/us-backing-neo-nazis-ukraine?paging=off&current_page=1#book

  8. [Or, to be fair:

    4. That he is a competent bureaucrat who might actually do a good job of cleaning up the Vatican’s scandalous financial mess.]
    I didn’t realise that cult is in such bad shape. I thought they owned lots of real estate?

    The real scandal is their history of covering up sexual abuse. I don’t think Pell has shown any interest in fixing up that scandal.

  9. [That he is a competent bureaucrat who might actually do a good job of cleaning up the Vatican’s scandalous financial mess.]

    Much as I love Italians. You need other cultures to sort out the Vatican mess.

    I hope that is not “racist”.

  10. [The real scandal is their history of covering up sexual abuse. I don’t think Pell has shown any interest in fixing up that scandal.]

    There are even worse scandals than that. The treatment of native Americans in the Spanish/Portuguese Empires stand out as even more evil.

  11. Wasn’t Pell said by Abbott to be his confessor”..rather like some medieval King would have same

    who will now cleanse Abbott of his sins??

  12. [Should the then WA minister have been held directly responsible for the conduct of those prison van drivers who allowed an indigenous man to die on their transport journey between prisons?]

    Not the same i think fess. Sin of omission vs one of commission. Not that it makes it right, and the contractor needed to get a bollocking.

  13. Psephos

    [4. That he is a competent bureaucrat who might actually do a good job of cleaning up the Vatican’s scandalous financial mess.]

    If that turns out to be the case, it will be a bonus. The Pope, rather than use the papal red shoes reportedly asked that some shoes he had in Argentina be repaired and sent to him. Perhaps he’s just someone who doesn’t like tossing away old stuff. Repair, re-use, recycle.

    Apparently he’s got some cleric working on an environmental policy. George should love being close to that.

  14. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, February 26, 2014 at 11:28 pm | PERMALINK
    I did notice that PM Blood Oaf’s hairline has receded almost to the back of his neck. Now I know why he was so desperate to get out of the LOTO’s seat and into the PM’s.]

    Camera angle?

    PS. That would have to be the funniest comment I’ve read, in ages. Guffaw Plus.

  15. [Psephos
    Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 12:15 am | PERMALINK
    It seems to me that one can put forward the following theories for Pell’s new job.

    Or, to be fair:

    4. That he is a competent bureaucrat who might actually do a good job of cleaning up the Vatican’s scandalous financial mess.]

    The court jester. You win the prize tonight.

  16. [I think the ALP should pursue her endlessly.]

    Particularly now her fearless leader has calle dit as such a minor matter. He has obviously thought deeply about it and reached a judgement on the matter. 🙂 He…owns it now. 🙂

  17. Someone has now suggested to me that Reza Berati was in fact killed by other Iranian detainees under cover of the riot because they knew (or suspected) that he was an Iranian government agent. Apparently the Iranian regime has an extensive spy network among the Iranian diaspora, so it’s not entirely implausible. I’d want to see some evidence however. It does suggest how dangerous it is to jump to conclusions as so many have done.

  18. fran
    [Pairing him up with a ledger seems an obvious choice]

    What better job for Pell than to be linked to his obvious strength.

    Pope Frank’s proving to be a master at the art.

  19. That about Abbott sins
    ___________________Pell must have been the worst possible public spokesman for any group I could think off

    On the media he seemed to radiate a kind of authoritarian arrogance which must have alienated most viewers

    He may well do ,a good job in the labyrinthine criminal world of the Vatican and it certainly needs a clean-up from many financial scandals

    Some time ago I read”God’s Banker” about a former head of the Bank of the Holy Spirit(what a wonderful name!!)who was implacated in the 1970ies with much embezzlement and died at the end of a rope under a London Bridge…at about the same time as the Pope of the day ,only in office a short time died in his sleep in Rome(he must have eaten something that disagreeed with him)

    The Vatican reads like the plot of a ripping novel

    anyway it’s get rid of Pell from our shores

  20. imacca

    it raises questions of integrity of government ministers

    ownership of Government by corporate interests

    it sets a theme that can resonate, especially when the TPP hands over power to corporations.

    I actually believe there will come a day when Governments will be replaced by Corporations. (though I will be dead by then, thank God)

  21. Psephos
    [Someone has now suggested to me that Reza Berati was in fact killed by other Iranian detainees under cover of the riot because . . .

    It does suggest how dangerous it is to jump to conclusions as so many have done.]

    Looks like you’ve joined the bandwagon. Enjoy.

  22. psephos

    [Why do you feel impelled to be a rude and unpleasant dickhead all the time?]

    Probably the same reason you feel impelled to be an obnoxious prat all the time.

  23. I am of the opinion that the Pope is lining up Pell to handover church monies to victims of their crimes.

    I was and am frightened that Murdoch via Pell is being invited into the dead heart of the Vatican.

    It would scare me more if the Pope seemed to be a dead head, which he is not.

    Cunning plan, perhaps.

    And who will replace Pell.

    Someone to the Pope’s liking, I guess.

  24. [Probably the same reason you feel impelled to be an obnoxious prat all the time.]

    I choose when to be an obnoxious prat. I’ve never once seen you make a comment here about anyone or anything that wasn’t rude and unpleasant.

  25. [Someone has now suggested to me that Reza Berati was in fact killed by other Iranian detainees under cover of the riot because they knew (or suspected) that he was an Iranian government agent.]
    Why would an Iranian agent potentially kill themselves by getting on a crappy asylum seeker boat? It just defies logic. If they wanted to get into Australia wouldn’t the Iranian government forge a passport and put them on a plane?

    This is a similar sort of argument that Peter Reith proposed after 11/9/01 terrorist ttacks that asylum seekers arriving by boat could well be terrorists, for which he didn’t present a scrap of evidence to back up the claim.

  26. deblonay

    [The Vatican reads like the plot of a ripping novel]

    I think there is already any amount of garbage like that already written. Have you heard of Da Vinci Code?

  27. [Why would an Iranian agent potentially kill themselves by getting on a crappy asylum seeker boat? It just defies logic. If they wanted to get into Australia wouldn’t the Iranian government forge a passport and put them on a plane? ]

    No, the theory is that he was there to spy on the other Iranians.

  28. Psephos
    [I choose when to be an obnoxious prat.]

    😆

    You’re so up yourself you can’t even be polite when addressing a fellow postee on this blog.

    [I’ve never once seen you make a comment here about anyone or anything that wasn’t rude and unpleasant.]

    You should stop speed-reading, you miss out out on all the polite nuance.

  29. [No, the theory is that he was there to spy on the other Iranians.]
    That still implies he risked his life on an asylum seeker boat headed to Australia.

    I find the idea to be unbelievable.

  30. Psephos

    [Someone has now suggested to me that Reza Berati was in fact killed by other Iranian detainees under cover of the…]

    Who is this “someone”?

    Are you spreading malicious roomers against a recently dead person?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *