The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.
Elsewhere in polldom:
• Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.
• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.
• The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).
UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.
UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.
Psephos
[Up to a point he was, yes. He was very well read in military history and theory. In the first two years of the war he showed consistently good strategic judgement.]
I am yet to be convinced of Hitler’s “strategic judgement” ever being good.
Given his main aim (apart from celebrating his cult of “death”) was invading and occupying the east, Hitler set himself up for failure from September 1939.
1. He politically miscalculated in thinking the British/French would accept his invasion of Poland.
2. He failed in knocking Britain out of the war when he might have had a chance.
3. He failed by delaying the invasion of Russia to support the Italian “side show” in Greece, North Africa
4. He failed when he tried to fight a “two front” war.
5. He has contempt for everyone and failed to enlist the real desire for freedom from Russian communism of many east europeans.
6. He happily sacrificed 600,000 men on the Eastern Front rather than allow them to withdraw to fight another day.
I think Hitler was a strategic idiot.
Pendant
http://www.defence.gov.au/defencenews/stories/2013/sep/0919b.htm
Sent to me by one of my followers, note who else features in there our new GG “Old boys Club” ???
@Confessions/1699
In duly noted what Confessions said in this post, I think it’s also highly hypercritical of the blame game, when so called Red Tape, Safety measures and so forth are weakened (by Federal or State) to the extent that problems do arise, the law.
Especially over time, where laws are overturned, or rewritten to suit specific agenda’s (i.e. watering down for example).
Contract between the Goverment (state or Federal) should be clear and precise as to who is what responsible for what.
Many cases, half the time that isn’t the case.
Alert male testosterone….
@BBCBreaking: President Vladimir Putin orders test of combat readiness of troops in central and western Russia
I’m a bit slow to read the Oz today, but I think this is the comedic highlight
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/popularity-stakes-prove-risky-for-alp/story-fn53lw5p-1226837655143#
so being more popular than a government that should be enjoying a honeymoon period is a problem for labor, and inches of column length are devoted to shorten’s ‘slide’ in popularity and the implication and disapproval that shorten is acting like a populist leader.
abbott’s terminal decline and failed populism does not get a mention.
they outdo themselves for satire in doing rupert’s bidding to spin everything against labor and the greens. what a strange culture it must be in the Oz’s offices.
[What i have never been able to work out is why Germany declared war on the US after the Japanese attack in the Pacific. To me that ranks very close as an “ultimate war losing decision” to the decision to invade Russia and then faf around in the south instead of going straight for the logistics hub of Moscow.]
Three issues there.
1. Yes the declaration of war on the US is a puzzle. I think he felt he owed it to Japan as an ally, and he presumed that the US would soon come into the European war anyway, which was probably true.
2. The decision to invade Russia was the logical expression of his ideology. He wasn’t in the war to fight the British. He wanted to destroy Jewish-Bolshevism, and that required attacking Russia.
3. Yes that was a serious error. But then, Napoleon waged a “narrow front” war in Russia and he lost too.
As Tony Greig often said:
[HIRTLER WARS A FORKING DORK HEAD]
A funny example of foot-in-mouth politically statements.
Johann Lamont Scottish Labour Leader (anti-independent) tells the voters that “we’re not genetically programmed in Scotland to make politically decisions” … wtf
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBH55ZeZU4w
[1. He politically miscalculated in thinking the British/French would accept his invasion of Poland.
2. He failed in knocking Britain out of the war when he might have had a chance.
3. He failed by delaying the invasion of Russia to support the Italian “side show” in Greece, North Africa
4. He failed when he tried to fight a “two front” war.
5. He has contempt for everyone and failed to enlist the real desire for freedom from Russian communism of many east europeans.
6. He happily sacrificed 600,000 men on the Eastern Front rather than allow them to withdraw to fight another day.]
1. That was a political error rather than a strategic one. Based on what he had seen of Chamberlain and Daladier at Munich, it was an understandable one. He underestimated Chamberlain, as did most other people.
2. I don’t think he was ever close to achieving that.
3. That’s a myth. The delay to Barbarossa was caused by the Russian weather, not the Greek campaign.
4. He believed he could knock our Russia before the US came into the war. That turned out to be wrong, but not by much, and it was a widely shared view that Russia would collapse.
5. That was certainly a political error, but it flowed from his ideology. He didn’t invade Russia to liberate the Russians, but to build a German slave empire in the east.
6. I’m not sure what specifically that refers to.
Thanks for the heads up on Shorten’s speech. I have only watched a half of one QT this year. QT has really gone down the pit.
Swamp
I am no military historian, but I think you may find that Hitler was forced by circumstances for each strategic mistake.
I think he under estimated Churchill. Remember that Hitler had very good reason to believe that much of the UK elite including the former King and other members of the Royal F, swathes of the British upper class etc would swing behind him. The plan was to join with the UK to war with Russia. For whatever reason this plan fell apart and Hitler decided to put pressure on Britain by bombing.
Bombing the UK was a very stupid action because it alienated the Brits forcing Germany into war with both the UK and Russia.
Here’s another addition to famous misjudgements.
https://twitter.com/pauljmcgann/status/438439473907384320/photo/1
[Thanks for the heads up on Shorten’s speech. I have only watched a half of one QT this year. QT has really gone down the pit.]
That’s what usually happens with majority government.
But also as Tony Greig used to say:
[Bronwyn Bit-chop is a forking dork head.]
zoid:
The failures of the HIP were directly attributable to the tradies involved. There was little to no federal govt oversight of their activities – it was state govt regs.
Not so subcontracted entities by the federal govt. But that said, to hold federal ministers responsible for day to day operational failures of subcontractors is a stretch IMO. Do we really want ministers drilling down into the nuts and bolts of day to day operations for each and every contract they oversee?
Leases are in a similar vein, esp for local govt. At what point are individual councillors personally responsible for the conduct of a leaseholder?
I did notice that PM Blood Oaf’s hairline has receded almost to the back of his neck. Now I know why he was so desperate to get out of the LOTO’s seat and into the PM’s.
[Here’s another addition to famous misjudgements.]
George Pell deciding to debate Richard Dawkins.
1706
Napoleon started his failed Russian campaign on the 22nd of June 1812. Hitler, because of the Italian “sideshow”, launched his invasion of Russia on the 22nd of June 1941.
Hitler`s campaign lasting 3 years rather than 1 was mainly due to improvements in the technologies of transport, food, clothing and communications, although a significant proportion of the German and other Axis armies were made up of non-mechanised units with horse transport similar to the used by Napoleon (but that were transported on trains where possible).
Napoleon should have known better because the Russians had previously used the tactic they used on him on the Swedes leading to the defeat at Poltava (now in Ukraine).
Napoleon should have taken Russian territory in smaller portions rather than try for one big defeat.
Highest Record in 15 years for unemployment:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/dole-queue-at-record-length-national-jobless-rate-the-highest-in-15-years/story-fni0xqrc-1226837687528
What DT didn’t tell is what happened since September election!
Now using it for excuse to put their own agenda in!
[George Pell deciding to debate Richard Dawkins.]
Yes that was a bloodbath. But I was very annoyed at Tony Jones for making it a debate about politics rather than theology. If you have a Cardinal debating an atheist scientist, the question they should be debating is “Does God exist?”, not whether religion is politically a good thing or not.
[Do we really want ministers drilling down into the nuts and bolts of day to day operations for each and every contract they oversee?]
That should read that their Department oversees.
[Hitler, because of the Italian “sideshow”, launched his invasion of Russia on the 22nd of June 1941.]
I’ve already pointed out that isn’t true. You can’t invade Russia until the roads dry out, which they don’t do until June. The Greek campaign did not delay Barbarossa, although it did divert some units.
@Confessions/1714
Perhaps they should? Over a certain limit?
It may help prevent larger failers?
Like HIP, like One.Tel, etc.
There were no deaths in the HIP in SA, because anyone who installed Home Insulation (except for their own house, I believe) needed a Builders Licence, They could have assistants of course, but someone with a BL needed to do the installation.
It is not the Minister’s fault that other states did not have such strong regulations. The Minister could have insisted on people with Builders Licences doing the work, but I am not sure how the Feds could have policed that
[But that said, to hold federal ministers responsible for day to day operational failures of subcontractors is a stretch IMO. ]
Agreed, but contracted personnel facilitating, and it appears actually engaging in the bashing of people they are contracted to guard is a bit more than a “day to day operational failure”.
I’d argue that it indicates something systemic is badly wrong and for that the minister should be responsible.
What’s a Richard Dawkins and why doesn’t anyone give a stuff?
daretotread
[Bombing the UK was a very stupid action because it alienated the Brits forcing Germany into war with both the UK and Russia.]
The British Empire was at war with Germany before Germans bombed UK.
German bombing of cities rather than air defences actually gave the RAF to a break to recover and win the air battle. Though I think that was Goring’s strategic mistake.
A good strategist takes advantage of “circumstances”. Hitler was hopeless: driven by hatred, prejudice and belief in nonsense. Someone like that may be able to ride the skills of others for a time and even get lucky sometimes but will inevitably fail.
Premier Barry O’Farrell has been forced to admit he “dropped in” on a meeting attended by Liberal identity Nick Di Girolamo and former resources minister Chris Hartcher, whose relationship is being examined as part of a major corruption inquiry.
The government has also admitted the meeting, on February 28, 2012, may have occurred before Mr Di Girolamo was placed on the official lobbyist register representing the Korean government-owned company Kores, raising questions about whether Mr Hartcher breached the ministerial code of conduct.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/barry-ofarrell-dropped-in-on-meeting-attended-by-nick-di-girolamo-and-chris-hartcher-20140226-33i5u.html#ixzz2uQnJcHXx
http://www.defence.gov.au/op/afghanistan/bio/angusCampbell/campbell.htm
[In late 2005, he joined the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet as a First Assistant Secretary to head the Office of National Security and was subsequently promoted to Deputy Secretary and appointed to the position of Deputy National Security Adviser. In these roles he was responsible for the preparation of advice to the Prime Minister on national security issues and coordinating the development of whole-of-government national security policy.]
1709
Germany had been doing a good job destroying the RAF until the focus of bombing was switched to the cities. Had that decision not been taken, and had more priority been given to submarines over battleships before the war, they might have been able to invade and occupy the UK and that would have made Germany much harder to defeat because of the lack of the UK as a base to launch air raids, naval patrols and the Normandy landings then Germany would have been in with a better chance.
Oh GG, please spare us your “defender of the faith” routine. It’s very tiresome. We know you’re a loyal Catholic, but you don’t need to bang on about it.
[What’s a Richard Dawkins and why doesn’t anyone give a stuff?]
As Tony Greig used to say:
[Grow orp you forking forktord]
I think the Minister should be held responsible for not knowing wtf was going on for nearly a week after the man was killed in the Manus Island facility.
First he says the violence was because the detainees were rioting and escaping out of the camp, and then it takes days for him to own up that the violence happened inside the camp, and that is where the man was killed.
According to Morrison, he knew nuffink about nuffink because none-one told him stuff-all about nuffink.
That is a good a reason for sacking a minister as any other I can name.
Psephos
[6. I’m not sure what specifically that refers to.]
i was referring to the losses of the 6th Army under Paulus, at Stalingrad. Not meant as an exact figure. But a substantial loss, A couple of hundred thousand could have been saved.
[I think the Minister should be held responsible for not knowing wtf was going on for nearly a week after the man was killed in the Manus Island facility.]
If this happened in a state prison and Morrison was a state minister I suspect there would be inquiries flying around all over the place.
But the fact is most Australians couldn’t care less what happens to asylum seekers on Manus Island, thus Morrison can just hide behind the apathy of the Australian people.
In fact most Australians probably think Manus Island is a place owned by a judge on My Kitchen Rules.
[George Pell deciding to debate Richard Dawkins.]
As only a cultural Catholic I would not think George Pell would be a winning item. Though Dawkins is also a bit too “evangelical” and does not really understand his opponent. 🙂
swamprat,
I don’t think saving men’s lives was much of a priority in WW2, or WW1 either.
It was a case of “you take the King’s/Fatherland/Motherland/Glorious Leader’s shilling, you take your chances”.
[I think the Minister should be held responsible for not knowing wtf was going on for nearly a week after the man was killed in the Manus Island facility.]
Morrison clearly lied to voters, and sought to correct the record very late on a Saturday night.
For this he deserves to be held accountable.
[Germany had been doing a good job destroying the RAF ]
Not so much after the withdrawal from the continent. And a lot of the on the ground British losses were Coastal Command, not Fighter Command. What i’ve read indicates that the Germans did not have as many aircraft as attributed to them at the time, and British aircraft production was pretty well running ahead of losses during the air battles through to mid 41.
Also, allied pilots could bail out and be back in the air in a new plane the next day. German aircrew shot down got a long holiday at the Queens pleasure.
Puff, true but when an army is running out of lives to burn up a few hundred thousand represents some more canon fodder.
Showson,
Yes, probably. I don’t expect the masses to care much.
Psephos,
An alleged bloodbath where no blood was spilled is evidence of nothing more than rhetorical flourish. The alleged loser of said debate has now been promoted and the Catholic faith and influence is stronger than it’s ever been in this country. So, clearly the athiests are winning!
LOL
But, do carry on.
[Morrison clearly lied to voters, and sought to correct the record very late on a Saturday night.
For this he deserves to be held accountable.]
I want the bugger crucified just on general principles. 🙁
Re Stalingrad, I did say that Hitler’s grip on reality declined after the end of 1941. Stalingrad certainly showed that.
[Agreed, but contracted personnel facilitating, and it appears actually engaging in the bashing of people they are contracted to guard is a bit more than a “day to day operational failure”.]
Should the then WA minister have been held directly responsible for the conduct of those prison van drivers who allowed an indigenous man to die on their transport journey between prisons?
fess,
Yes, he was lying through his teeth, as if he did not make sure he knew what was happening. Sneaking that press release out at that time was desperate.
@1718
This couldn’t possibly have anything to do with the LNP’s ridiculously uninformed attitude to economics. Apparently, when you refuse to pump money into the economy, demand falls. Who knew!
My Father was a spitfire pilot fought in North Africa and Burma but was in training in UK during battle of Britain. His diary at the time lists each day the pilots he knew killed in the Battle. It is sad to read…. most in their early 20’s.
He was 19 at the time.
Imacca
[I want the bugger crucified just on general principles. ]
Biblical ones anyway … 😉
Imacca,
When Morrison was head of the Australian Tourism Department he gave us Lara Bingle. Now, as head of Immigration he gives us Manus Bungle.
Again, Mad As Hell was pretty good. Micalleff isn’t Jon Stewart or Bill Maher, but he’s at worst amusing. His “interview” with the Morrison “representative” was very well done.