Redcliffe by-election live

Live coverage of the count for Queensland’s Redcliffe by-election.

# % Swing 2PP (proj.) Swing
Andrew Tyrrell 177 0.7%
Sally Vincent (Family First) 586 2.5% -2.1%
Len Thomas 2,513 10.6%
John Marshall (Greens) 950 4.0% -2.7%
Gabriel Buckley 230 1.0%
Yvette D’Ath (Labor) 10,375 43.6% +12.9% 56.2% +16.3%
Talosaga McMahon 317 1.3%
Liz Woollard 279 1.2%
Kerri-Anne Dooley (Liberal National) 8,353 35.1% -14.1% 43.8% -16.3%
FORMAL/TURNOUT 23,780 71.7%
Informal 655 2.7% +0.3%
Booths reporting: 13 out of 13

9.49pm. The two-party results from the pre-polls have now been added. I’ve switched off booth-matching, so all swings shown above compare the current result with the final total from 2012.

8.30pm. All booths now in on 2PP, and around 4000 new pre-poll votes added on the primary vote. I’m guessing a two-party result for the latter votes is the last outstanding addition for the evening.

8.04pm. All booths in on 2PP now except Scarborough North. The latest additions have slightly moderated Labor’s winning margin.

7.57pm. All booths in on the primary vote, four outstanding on 2PP.

7.52pm. Redcliffe TAFE 2PP added, with four left to go on 2PP, and Scarborough the one straggler on the primary vote.

7.39pm. When I said Scarborough had reported before, I meant Woody Point. Kippa-Ring north has reported as well, as have seven booths all told on 2PP. So the Labor margin of 7% is looking solid.

7.36pm. Bally Cara 2PP result added, which has moderated Labor’s gain on the preference share considerably: now up 3.6%, with the LNP down 6.3%, and exhausted up 2.8%. Still a projected Labor winning margin of 7% though.

7.33pm. Scarborough booth added on the primary vote, leaving only two more to go, but with still only one booth reporting on 2PP.

7.30pm. The pre-poll votes also have 2PP results now, and here Labor’s gain on the preference share is more modest. However, the projection above is based on polling booth results only.

7.29pm. Finally a 2PP result, from Kippa-Ring South, and the projection is now using this result rather than the 2012 election to extrapolate across other booths. This has given a solid boost to the projected Labor margin, with Labor’s share of preferences up 9.7%, the LNP’s down 8.0%, and exhausted down 1.8%.

7.23pm. Andrew Bartlett relates: “Preferences from 86 Greens votes at Kippa Ring booth went 40 ALP, 4 LNP, 42 exhausted.”

7.19pm. Independent Len Thomas, who ran in opposition to anti-bikie laws, has his head above double figures.

7.16pm. Smallish Scarborough North booth added on primary vote, leaving three more to come; still nothing for 2PP.

7.13pm. Clontarf and Redcliffe South push projected Labor margin over 5%. Four booths outstanding on primary vote, and still nothing for two-party preferred.

7.11pm. Biggest booth in yet from Kippa-Ring, which produces a good result for Labor that pushes the projected margin to nearly 5%. Still no preference counts though …

7.09pm. Woody Point South added, projected Labor margin now reaches 4.0%.

7.08pm. Clontarf Beach added, slightly increasing projected Labor winning margin. Still no two-party results though, so this assumes 2012 preference flows.

7.06pm. Bally Cara and Redcliffe TAFE have reported on the primary vote. The former is a retirement village and comfortably the electorate’s most conservative booth. Respective two-party swings are 11.8% and 14.8%, well in line with overall trend and confirming an impression of Labor winning by 3-4%.

7.04pm. 2463 pre-polls added, which I don’t have configured for booth-matching, but the swing on them is perfectly consistent with the overall trend. I gather this is about half the likely pre-poll total.

6.59pm. Second booth in now, from Frawley, and projected Labor winning margin up from 2.6% to 3.5%. Still going off 2012 preferences here, so a small degree of caution advised.

6.52pm. So far, I’m going off the 2012 election preferences. The first two columns in the above table are raw representations of the primary votes, but the swing and two-party columns are based on booth-matched results.

6.48pm. The Humpybong booth is first out of the blocks, and it shows a Labor swing 12.7%, enough to overturn the overall 10.1% by a small margin. This was Labor’s best booth in 2012, or its least bad — the LNP margin was 57-43.

6pm. Polls have now closed, as ReachTEL reports an exit poll shows Labor headed for a comfortable victory. Stay tuned for coverage of results as they emerge, which should start to happen in three-quarters of an hour or so.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

158 comments on “Redcliffe by-election live”

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  1. ausdavo

    I basing it on Antonys figures of;

    “There are 6,653 Pre-polls that will be counted tonight. Presumably these will come in late, but they were taken at three different centres so they may be reported progressively.

    There are also 3,255 postal votes that have so far been received. These will not be counted until tomorrow.”

    He has also said there are about 4000 pre polls to be counted in Kippa Ring which would agree with the figure above.

  2. C@t

    I had mentioned to mari earlier. I have recollections of a posfer stating they had received receipts for donations made to the Liberal party in NSW, despife never having made such donations. I believe it was posted on the pbxmas sife ages ago. Do you have a memory of it?

  3. confessions,
    Only started blogging again recently. Felt pretty raw after being stiffed by the Tragic ones. Was over it but Migs extended a helping hand and a warm welcome. So started blogging under my original nom, ‘Hillbilly Skeleton’.

  4. everything

    how about last election this election
    LNP 49.24% 35.22%
    ALP 30.76% 43.16%
    anti bikie laws 0.00% 10.60%

    swing against LNP pretty huge 14.02%
    to ALP 12.40%

    More like good to me but you can bask in your delusion.

  5. Kevjohnno

    It appears the postals etc are up on last election:
    Total votes 28,414
    Booth votes 20,467
    Post/Pre 5,973
    Absent 1,728
    A few others 246

    There should be no Absent this time so they may have caused the others to rise (of course they are not necessarily the same voters this time).

  6. vic,
    Yeah, Libs targeted our Deb full on up here last election. They knew she was a popular Labor MP and they threw everything they had at her. And their rich mates with their popular local sporting identity candidates in covertly-affiliated front parties. Deb still one on Primary Votes but the preferences from the Affiliated Stooge Party candidate sunk her.

    I hear they are thinking about trying it on again in the next NSW State election, in order to try and funnel votes back to the Liberals from disaffected voters.

    Both within and without the Liberal Party it appears to be the latest con, putting up popular local sporting identities as candidates. Though how they make good legislators and governors of the nation I don’t know. I believe it is the ‘leadership qualities’ and ‘proven winners’ attributes that they are trading off with these characters. Clive PUP is onto it too.

  7. Thanks deblonay at 96.

    I was certainly aware of his failure to answer and saw your post straight after his and simply added weight to a most reasonable request. Will say no more until he denigrates reasonable PBer’s again.

  8. C@tmomma

    You’re quite right about the proliferation of a group of different high profile people standing as independents to funnel preferences back to them.

    The Senate of course, is one of their big goes and has lead to some ridiculous results as we all know.

  9. c@tmomma

    Labor obviously have to counteract this practice themselves. In any case, hopefully the Libs will be on the nose by the time of fhe next election

  10. [A loss of such proportions makes it very clear that Newman not only lacks a mandate for the future. It is a ringing dis-endorsement of ALL that he has done to Qld so far.]

    By-elections are hard to interpret. Labor got an even bigger swing at Miranda, yet O’Farrell is still miles ahead in the statewide polls and no-one thinks NSW Labor is even close to recovery. It’s certainly a very good result, but I’d be careful reading too much into it.

  11. I don’t think O’Farrell & Newman are a fair comparison on the basis that the NSW LNP could be considered more center populist (eg. their support for Gonski) whilst Queensland LNP appear to be totally out of control right wingers.

  12. ausdavo,
    Yeah, it’s the Local Council strategy writ large. Hoover up votes that aren’t going directly to the Liberal Party candidates on the ticket with candidates set up to funnel votes back to them.

  13. [Here’s an atrocity from Palestine just to provide balance. ]

    Yes, that is a good story. I don’t dispute for a second that ordinary Palestinians are much nicer people than the bloodthirsty crazies who lead them. But the difference between the two stories is that in the first one it’s the Israeli state providing medical assistance to wounded Syrians, not an isolated individual.

  14. Firstly, in Queensland there is little or no stink attached to the few remaining ALP MP’s.

    NSW is different with MP’s there still carrying a bit of the past.

    Secondly, O’Farrell appears not to have moved with such little regard for the public as Newman has. Naturally O’Farrell and the LNP are holding up well.

    It may well be that the LNP are in for a real shock this time next year and we may end up without a majority party. The ALP, Palmer Party and Katter could all slice the LNP in different regions and with the benefit of optional preferential voting!

  15. Antony Green comments on turnout:
    “First preferences for the additional pre-poll votes have come in. Turnout up to 73.5%, which will mean eventual turnout of around 85%.”

    Considering the turnout in the general election was 91.11% this seem pretty good for a by-election. I don’t think we can put too much of the swing down to Liberal voters staying home Psephos. I agree with you about not reading too much into the result though. factoring in the Driscoll factor & the normal by-election kick at the government,
    Labor still has a lot of work to do to get back to a competitive position for the next state election.

  16. Yes Psephos and it’s also the Israeli state committing crimes against 5 year old children, women and babies.

    I abhor “the bloodthirsty crazies” that exist on both sides – not just on one side!

  17. C@t

    Newman is a military type I understand which may have something to do with his delivery, by this I mean boot camp politics.

    Apparently his nickname prior to Can-do was Noddy.

    [Campbell Newman’s detractors call him that for his perceived resemblance to the Enid Blyton character as well as his misadventures, such as an expedition he led across the Tanami Desert, in northern Australia, in which his party had no fewer than 199 flat tyres]

    I don’t get either comparisons.

  18. [ausdavo
    …..swing against LNP pretty huge 14.02%
    to ALP 12.40%

    More like good to me but you can bask in your delusion.]

    I didn’t say it wasn’t good, I just said “meh” (i.e. about what you would expect).

    Just remember ALP 43% is the same as the ALP vote in 2009 (43%)
    LNP 35% is higher than the LNP vote in 2009 (34%)

    So we have reverted to the seat before the last election

  19. Psephos,
    ‘And Palaszczuk has much more credibility than Robbo.’
    She’s come out publicly in favour of Same Sex Marriage has she?
    Pity, as a Labor man I would have thought you would at least provide tacit support for a guy who left school after Year 10 and pulled himself up by his bootstraps, despite whatever other fatal flaws he might have.

    Which isn’t to say that I don’t admire Palaszczuk. One gutsy, classy Labor woman leader. I like her dad too.

  20. Everything,
    Typical Liberal apologist. Simply delusional and quick with the exculpatory excuse for your party when it suits. Love supporting a bunch of guys with refugee blood on their hands,huh?

  21. Signing off now as working Sundays are mandated for me – $50 an hour for staff is not a possibility, so they don’t get any Sunday work.

    Good luck to those workers who can get it (mostly government employees) as it appears that the Big end of town has different pay rates for Sunday workers anyway and don’t have to pay double time. Only small businesses, so we either do the work ourselves or don’t open.

    Funny but my staff ask to do the work for normal pay as they’d rather have a day off during the week. However, I can’t agree to their offer – I’ll get fined and derided for being a bad boss. LOL

  22. [Hoover up votes that aren’t going directly to the Liberal Party candidates on the ticket with candidates set up to funnel votes back to them]

    Perhaps the Labor party could do the same thing. Nothing stopping them.

  23. [Pity, as a Labor man I would have thought you would at least provide tacit support for a guy who left school after Year 10 and pulled himself up by his bootstraps, despite whatever other fatal flaws he might have.]

    I’m afraid I have to give more weight to his fatal flaws than to his bootstraps.

  24. [Love supporting a bunch of guys with refugee blood on their hands,huh?

    Who is that again? The ALP, LNP, or both?]

    Both, but the current climate owes more to the LNP.

  25. Congratulations ALPollbludgeroonies.

    ALP gets back to pre-2012 result and the LNP goes from having 11 seats for every ALP seat to now having <10. Quite an achievement in one night.

    Sleep tight….

  26. Psephos needs to do something about his informants.
    Posted Wednesday, November 20, 2013 at 1:03 pm | Permalink

    My local informant tells me:

    * Voters are pissed off with Newman but not ready to return to Labor.
    * Labor does not in any case have a decent local candidate.
    * Yvette d’Ath is not interested, but might change her mind if the party twists her arm.
    * A good local PUP candidate or independent would win easily.

  27. I think that was accurate information at the time.
    * The voters have got a good deal more pissed off at Newman since November, mainly because of the bikie laws, it seems.
    * My informant was a former D’Ath staffer and at that time D’Ath was saying she was not a candidate.
    * The party did indeed twist her arm, because they had no-one local with any standing.
    * We’ll never know how well PUP or a good independent would have done.

  28. [
    How much of the swing is due to LNP voters staying at home?
    Irrelevant question. Didn’t want to vote for the guy willing to pay the fine, still a Liberal Vote lost.

  29. [
    Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    * We’ll never know how well PUP or a good independent would have done.
    Looks to me like a shift against greens and family first but that could be because of a field of independents to chose from. Looks like a pretty determined effort to get some balance in the state parliament to me.

  30. Good to see such a large swing against Newman.

    Yet another swing away from the Greens. Have the Greens here tried to spin it or have they stayed silent?

    Peak Puny 😎

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