| # | % | Swing | 2PP (proj.) | Swing | |
| Andrew Tyrrell | 177 | 0.7% | |||
| Sally Vincent (Family First) | 586 | 2.5% | -2.1% | ||
| Len Thomas | 2,513 | 10.6% | |||
| John Marshall (Greens) | 950 | 4.0% | -2.7% | ||
| Gabriel Buckley | 230 | 1.0% | |||
| Yvette D’Ath (Labor) | 10,375 | 43.6% | +12.9% | 56.2% | +16.3% |
| Talosaga McMahon | 317 | 1.3% | |||
| Liz Woollard | 279 | 1.2% | |||
| Kerri-Anne Dooley (Liberal National) | 8,353 | 35.1% | -14.1% | 43.8% | -16.3% |
| FORMAL/TURNOUT | 23,780 | 71.7% | |||
| Informal | 655 | 2.7% | +0.3% | ||
| Booths reporting: | 13 out of 13 | ||||
9.49pm. The two-party results from the pre-polls have now been added. I’ve switched off booth-matching, so all swings shown above compare the current result with the final total from 2012.
8.30pm. All booths now in on 2PP, and around 4000 new pre-poll votes added on the primary vote. I’m guessing a two-party result for the latter votes is the last outstanding addition for the evening.
8.04pm. All booths in on 2PP now except Scarborough North. The latest additions have slightly moderated Labor’s winning margin.
7.57pm. All booths in on the primary vote, four outstanding on 2PP.
7.52pm. Redcliffe TAFE 2PP added, with four left to go on 2PP, and Scarborough the one straggler on the primary vote.
7.39pm. When I said Scarborough had reported before, I meant Woody Point. Kippa-Ring north has reported as well, as have seven booths all told on 2PP. So the Labor margin of 7% is looking solid.
7.36pm. Bally Cara 2PP result added, which has moderated Labor’s gain on the preference share considerably: now up 3.6%, with the LNP down 6.3%, and exhausted up 2.8%. Still a projected Labor winning margin of 7% though.
7.33pm. Scarborough booth added on the primary vote, leaving only two more to go, but with still only one booth reporting on 2PP.
7.30pm. The pre-poll votes also have 2PP results now, and here Labor’s gain on the preference share is more modest. However, the projection above is based on polling booth results only.
7.29pm. Finally a 2PP result, from Kippa-Ring South, and the projection is now using this result rather than the 2012 election to extrapolate across other booths. This has given a solid boost to the projected Labor margin, with Labor’s share of preferences up 9.7%, the LNP’s down 8.0%, and exhausted down 1.8%.
7.23pm. Andrew Bartlett relates: “Preferences from 86 Greens votes at Kippa Ring booth went 40 ALP, 4 LNP, 42 exhausted.”
7.19pm. Independent Len Thomas, who ran in opposition to anti-bikie laws, has his head above double figures.
7.16pm. Smallish Scarborough North booth added on primary vote, leaving three more to come; still nothing for 2PP.
7.13pm. Clontarf and Redcliffe South push projected Labor margin over 5%. Four booths outstanding on primary vote, and still nothing for two-party preferred.
7.11pm. Biggest booth in yet from Kippa-Ring, which produces a good result for Labor that pushes the projected margin to nearly 5%. Still no preference counts though …
7.09pm. Woody Point South added, projected Labor margin now reaches 4.0%.
7.08pm. Clontarf Beach added, slightly increasing projected Labor winning margin. Still no two-party results though, so this assumes 2012 preference flows.
7.06pm. Bally Cara and Redcliffe TAFE have reported on the primary vote. The former is a retirement village and comfortably the electorate’s most conservative booth. Respective two-party swings are 11.8% and 14.8%, well in line with overall trend and confirming an impression of Labor winning by 3-4%.
7.04pm. 2463 pre-polls added, which I don’t have configured for booth-matching, but the swing on them is perfectly consistent with the overall trend. I gather this is about half the likely pre-poll total.
6.59pm. Second booth in now, from Frawley, and projected Labor winning margin up from 2.6% to 3.5%. Still going off 2012 preferences here, so a small degree of caution advised.
6.52pm. So far, I’m going off the 2012 election preferences. The first two columns in the above table are raw representations of the primary votes, but the swing and two-party columns are based on booth-matched results.
6.48pm. The Humpybong booth is first out of the blocks, and it shows a Labor swing 12.7%, enough to overturn the overall 10.1% by a small margin. This was Labor’s best booth in 2012, or its least bad — the LNP margin was 57-43.
6pm. Polls have now closed, as ReachTEL reports an exit poll shows Labor headed for a comfortable victory. Stay tuned for coverage of results as they emerge, which should start to happen in three-quarters of an hour or so.
[Is Liz Woollard the Liberals for Forests lady from WA?]
That was Janet.
psephos,
you’re right they’re not.
But Sin Jin keeps slurring people and is unwilling to put his money where his mouth is – quite a despicable person.
Vote One Zionist Atrocities, for better roads in Redcliffe.
Lucky Kerri-Anne is picking up the FF vote, must be a personal backing. 😉
Better roads in Redcliffe is an LGA issue nothing much to do with this election! LOL
Greens vote down AGAIN. Does Andrew Bartlett have a theory about that?
[Better roads in Redcliffe is an LGA issue nothing much to do with this election! LOL]
The Zionist Atrocities Party will deliver better roads anyway. The Rothschilds will pay.
everything
care to update your projections?
A 17% swing would deliver Labor 43 seats.
@ Psephos 56
I’d hazard a guess that most of the swing against the Greens went Labor’s way (wanting to ride the strongest surfer on the wave against the LNP), maybe some of it went to Len Thomas (he seems to be the primary “I hate both major parties” protest vote here).
18% swing – double yikes!
@ Psephos 59
43 seats in addition to their 8, or 43 seats in total?
Psephos
that’s what happens in Israel – roads bulldozed straight over the ruins of palestinian homes stolen without compensation!
Given the way things have worked out for Janet Woollard and her family in WA I’m the last few years she is not likely to be putting herself up for election again any time soon! even in Queensland. Not nearly far enough away.
Ironically, an 18% 2PP swing here would give Redcliffe the status of being Labor’s safest seat in the state, outclassing Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat of Inala (currently held on a 6.9% 2PP margin).
[The Zionist Atrocities Party will deliver better roads anyway. The Rothschilds will pay.]
Yeah but only in Newport.
Arrnea, 43 + 8
[that’s what happens in Israel – roads bulldozed straight over the ruins of palestinian homes stolen without compensation!]
I doubt there are many Palestinians in Redcliffe, so that problem won’t arise.
@ Psephos 67
That would certainly speak to a certain… volatility in politics of late (Miranda by-election in NSW, Queensland election in 2012, seat swings in Tasmania in the 2013 federal election), would it not?
Yes!
Anyone who calls Public Hospital Doctors, Nurses and hard-working Firies, “Union Thugs” deserves to lose BIG TIME!
[That would certainly speak to a certain… volatility in politics of late (Miranda by-election in NSW, Queensland election in 2012, seat swings in Tasmania in the 2013 federal election), would it not?]
As long-term party loyalties decline, that’s what we’d expect.
Hi c@t
You have been missed!!!!!
@ Psephos 71
Well, less rusted-on voters and more people actually trying, at least on some level, to choose a candidate based on the issues (or what they think the issues are) is something I can definitely live with.
Psephos
the one who should fess up is sin jin.
Instead he goes to ground and allows you to repeatedly trivialise a very serious issue that most Australians have no knowledge of.
Hey C@t, hope you’ve been well.
[Well, less rusted-on voters and more people actually trying, at least on some level, to choose a candidate based on the issues (or what they think the issues are) is something I can definitely live with.]
Sadly, I don’t think that’s happening. I think there is a a declining belief in the efficacy of democratic politics and therefore a declining interest in politics generally. As well both the traditional working class and the traditional small-farmer class are rapidly disappearing.
[Instead he goes to ground and allows you to repeatedly trivialise a very serious issue that most Australians have no knowledge of.]
Well I have a great deal of knowledge about it, so don’t provoke me – not in this thread, anyway.
Good to see you c@t! How’s those 3 local state libs looking?
I’m hardly provoking you – if anything you provoked me.
And.. you’re not the only one with a great deal of knowledge
regardless of how highly you regard your opinions.
[And.. you’re not the only one with a great deal of knowledge
regardless of how highly you regard your opinions.]
I can’t think of another subject on which the abyss of ignorance and prejudice among people at this forum is so deep.
Love this tweet!
[Labor undefeated in 2014 ]
You have to feel for them.
[https://twitter.com/The_BrownDog/status/437159239300046848/photo/1/large
Well, in that case, they are (unfortunately) not far from the truth. The stench of self-serving corruption of the ruling class is beginning to get the common folk’s ire (and both major parties are guilty of this).
Ah, what I wouldn’t give for a proper grass-roots social democratic movement without the baggage associated with the Greens (and other minor leftist parties), or that associated with Labor and the union movement.
How many votes still to come, William? Turnout is still only 59%. Labor still has fewer actual votes than it polled in 2012. How much of the swing is due to LNP voters staying at home?
I assume with a swing like this most of the newly elected (and more) LNP members would be out at the next election. Will they be tempted to dump Newman to save their seats?
@ Psephos 84
Looks like the turnout was ~64%. Ouch.
There seems to have been a revolution in Ukraine.
[Ah, what I wouldn’t give for a proper grass-roots social democratic movement without the baggage associated with the Greens (and other minor leftist parties), or that associated with Labor and the union movement.]
I’m starting to drift towards that point of view.
I gather there’s about 3000 outstanding pre-polls, with I guess about 2500 postals. That might push it as high as 80%, which isn’t so bad for a by-election.
I can’t speak for others but I’ve never displayed “prejudice” – simply stated facts!
As far as “ignorance” that one is distinctly subjective.
If you check back you’ll see my original comment followed on from deblonay and was to a person who runs away from the truth but repeatedly slurs others.
You, and you alone, chose to buy into my question to that person whose name is pronounced “sin jin” and decided to trivialise a very important issue which I had no intention of continuing on until you added your comments.
Those comments at no time displayed any of the “Well I have a great deal of knowledge about it, so don’t provoke me” persona you now come out with.
If anything, to me your comments were quite childish – but you chose to add them in this Redcliffe discussion.
Remaining pre polls & postals will bring the turnout up to about 80%.
@ Psephos 88
Well, the floor is open. Pitch a party, maybe you’ll pick someone up.
To sum up Len Thomas’ vote.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Vlpffta1o7A
kevjohnno
where does on find a stated number of pre polls & postals or is it based on last time? the AEC site says 2421 pre polls have been counted so far (about 12.5%) of all counted votes.
on = one (sorry)
Re Sin Jin …I accidentally placed my challenge to Sin Jin on this thread
I was in error and it should have been on another thread where he was posting earlier
sorry about that !
[ausdavo
Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 8:33 pm | PERMALINK
everything
care to update your projections?]
Huh? You mean this:
[Everything
Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 5:13 pm | PERMALINK
I reckon (based on ALP TPP):
60+ good
55-59 meh
50-54 YIKES….just!!!!!
<50 unmitigated disaster]
Nope, it still stands.
….looking like "meh" is going to be the winner too. I would guess the final margin might come back a little to the LNP with postals, but whosetoknow in a by-election????
Hi vic, confessions & outside left! 🙂
Going well. Enjoying the smell of karma in the morning up here at Xanadu on the NSW Central Coast.
Still writing, in case you hadn’t heard. Migs at AIMN has adopted this stray. I said to him, ‘Are you sure you can handle the Helen Razer of the middle-aged blogging set?’ and he said, “Sure thing!”
Anyway, patiently waiting for the truth to come out about other Central Coast Liberals with links to the 3 State Liberal MPs. Say no more, say no more.
[Well, the floor is open. Pitch a party, maybe you’ll pick someone up.]
I think the Zionist Atrocities Party has great potential.
I’ll take + 17% any day