Seat of the week: Port Adelaide

Keeping things focused on South Australia as the state election looms into view, the latest instalment of Seat of the Week takes us to the state’s safest Labor seat.

Numbers indicate size of two-party preferred booth majority for Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Port Adelaide includes Port Adelaide itself and the adjacent Le Fevre Peninsula, including the suburbs around Sempahore and Largs Bay, along with Woodville and its surrounds to the north of the city and, some distance to the north-east, a stretch of suburbs from Parfield Gardens north to Salisbury North, which are separated from the rest of the electorate by the Dry Creek industrial area. A very safe seat for Labor, its margin after the 2013 election was 14.0%, pared back from a redistribution-adjusted 20.9% by a 6.9% swing to the Liberals.

Port Adelaide was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949 from an area that had previously made Hindmarsh a safe seat for Labor. Such was Labor’s strength that the Liberals did not field candidates in 1954 and 1955, when the only competition for Labor came from the Communist Party. Rod Sawford assumed the seat at a by-election in 1988 upon the resignation of the rather more high-profile Mick Young, who had been the member since 1974. With Sawford’s retirement at the 2007 election the seat passed on to Mark Butler, the state secretary of the Left faction Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union and a descendant of two conservative state premiers: his great- and great-great-grandfathers, both of whom were called Sir Richard Butler.

Butler quietly established himself as a rising star over Labor’s two terms in government, winning promotion to parliamentary secretary in June 2009 and then to the junior ministry portfolios of mental health and ageing after the 2010 election. The latter promotion came despite his noted hesitancy in jumping aboard the Julia Gillard bandwagon during the June 2010 leadership coup. Butler was elevated to cabinet in December 2011 when social inclusion was added to his existing responsibilities, and he further gained housing and homeless in the February 2013 reshuffle which followed the departure of Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans. He remained solidly behind Gillard when Kevin Rudd challenged her for the leadership in February 2012, but emerged among the decisive defectors to the Rudd camp ahead of his successful leadership bid in June 2013. The subsequent reshuffle saw him promoted to environment and climate change, which he retained in the shadow ministry following the election defeat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

581 comments on “Seat of the week: Port Adelaide”

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  1. Psephos – I’ll post a link to “The King Never Smiles” when you get home. if your are interested.

    Its banned up there of course.

    Shows the King in a totally different light.

    Better not to goggle it in Thailand either.

  2. Psephos

    Quite right that its not really the same. No two countries are and Australia has a much stronger democratic heritage than Thailand. Our LNP still think they’re “born to rule”, however just like the Thai elite.

    However, one of the biggest gripes of the Chinese Thai elite and their business associates has been the increase in the minimum wage across rural Thailand.

    Those working in Bangkok were already getting a bigger pay packet than the rural poor. As such they haven’t got anywhere near as much from the Pheu Thai party as the north and north east have. Hence, many of them are siding with Suthep and his followers from Phuket and the southern provinces. They make up the Thai middle class.

    Also you’re right about what is considered the so-called inferiority of the peasants. Many white skinned Thais from Bangkok can’t stand the brown skins of the north and north east. It’s almost a mini caste system. The Chinese heritage is what gives them their white skin.

    Worse still Falang who congregate in Phuket are even influenced by the north south divide and many openly refer to those from Chiang Mai or Issan using derogatory, demeaning terminology.

  3. Ausdevo, that’s all true. There is a strong racial undertone to a lot of Thai politics. You may know the word “jek” as a derogatory term for the Chinese. It’s floating around a lot at present. Of course Thaksin and Yingluck have Chinese ancestry, too, so it’s a complicated issue.

  4. Psephos

    Yes quite true. My rellies over there always seem to know (and let me know) when some local person has part Chinese blood. The history of the chinese in Thailand is, in itself, quite a story.

  5. [300….ausdavo]

    Interesting notes, ausdavo. It’s great to see some commentary about this country. I’ve been there a couple of times in the last ten years, but only on holiday with with the kids and been focused on the elephants, the beaches and the sights – such places as Sukothai – so I am lamentably ill-informed.

  6. And from the Land of the Free –

    Mitch McConnell reckons the Repugs are “open for business”.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/01/mcconnells-slogan-win-undecided-voters-we
    Look at the extent of obstructionism that Obama has had to put up with.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/01/van-susteren-and-roberts-dismiss
    This is an interesting technological breakthrough.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/01/powering-phones-pcs-using-sugar
    A SCOTUS case to watch.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/01/26/1271712/-Will-the-Supreme-Court-take-its-latest-chance-to-weaken-unions
    This is an interesting examination of the inclination of US voters. Doesn’t look too promising for conservatives.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/01/22/1271593/-The-two-charts-that-objectively-prove-Democrats-aren-t-even-slightly-hurt-by-becoming-more-liberal

  7. ugh . . . far too early in the morning.

    It’s very interesting hearing more about the Thai situation. It sounds like the current government, even if it /is/ corrupt, is at least acting in the interest of the bulk of the population.

    Probably the best way to push a country like Thailand forward is to make maximum effort to improve the situation of the majority of people. Not only does that give them a much more significant stake in the country than it would otherwise (encouraging them to be more politically engaged), it also gives them impetus towards the middle class that’s pretty much essential for our modern idea of democracy to work. Ironically it’s also the best way to reduce the influence of corruption . . .

    It’s a little funny that the party and people most accused of corruption are probably doing the most to reduce corruption in the long run. Maybe they really /are/ politically naive.

    himi

  8. [Foundation, in calling for another study even before the survey of scientific literature is released.

    “We all need to be concerned about whether he’s being influenced by little more than a cult,” ]

    The good Professor hasn’t been paying attention — being influenced by cults is a ‘thing’ for Tony.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-to-seek-independent-review-of-the-health-impact-of-wind-farms-despite-earlier-findings-20140126-31gz4.html#ixzz2rXgkdYbG

  9. OC

    So, did Australia end up by rounding up some Aboriginal women from the Palm Island concentration camp to act as prostitutes for US soldiers?

    If they did the Momii’s* claim that ‘any’ country in the war engaged in mass rape operations on behalf of their soldiers is perhaps not quite as absurd as it seems.

    As part of their general approach to denying their World War Two atrocities, the Japanese use the term ‘comfort women’. Momii does not use the word ‘rape’ of course, but let’s just call a spade a spade.

    Ordinarily you would think that the newly appointed head of the NHK might show some degree of being conflicted about the recent Japanese laws designed to limit freedom of speech.

    But no. Momii feels comfortable about that.

    *Momii has just been appointed head of the NHK, the Japanese equivalent of the ABC.

  10. himi

    Vote buying corruption allegations are made against Thaksin and Pheu Thai in order to justify the actions of the elite in attempting to depose them.

    In fact the elite (and their access to vast sums of money) probably do more vote buying for the (so-called) Democrats than Pheu Thai do for their members. I’ve seen both attempts first hand. The election result would still be the same.

    As for corruption in Thailand it’s not so much a political thing as endemic across the middle class and even affects the peasants.

    An example was when we needed a certificate from the local Amphur (Govt. Office) in a hurry. It was politely suggested that I buy a bottle of Scotch and pass it through my wife to the floor manager (in a brown paper bag, of course). I got a nice smile and wai from him to show his appreciation. We got the certificate 10 minutes later instead of waiting 3 days.

    Many Government jobs are “bought” for rellies on the basis of how many perks may be available.

    As a comparison, in Australia if you want to renew your passport and need it “fast-tracked” there’s an extra fee for you to pay. That revenue of course goes to the Government.

    There are many more examples that I’ve witnessed first hand.

  11. Zoomster

    [The good Professor hasn’t been paying attention — being influenced by cults is a ‘thing’ for Tony.]

    He is being coy.

  12. Surprise No 93. Despite having only just received a report on the possible health impacts of wind farms, Abbott immediately calls for another study. Sceptics suggest that the existing report does not give climate nutters in the Abbott Government the answer they wanted. Naturally, and in line with the Abbott Opposition’s repeated promise to provide greater accountability, the existing report has not been released.

  13. After this quick visit I’m off to open the newsagency and help distribute Murdoch’s big 3 – Courier, Tele and Aus.
    The first two are bought more for their racing guides than their distorted reporting. s
    Interestingly, sales of the Aus are still half of what they were 6 months ago. The Aus doesn’t look like reclaiming the lost customers.
    Have a great holiday everyone.

  14. ausdavo,

    Although I think it’s probably very hard to say for sure (there doesn’t seem to be much solid research on corruption causes), my feeling is that corruption of the kind you describe is to a large extent driven by a combination of pay and conditions being pretty miserable, and the overall economy suffering extreme inequality. Someone who’s very poor will see no real alternative to contributing to a corrupt official/system, and if they’re in the position of power they’ll have a “whatever it takes to get by” approach to the receiving end.

    On top of that, when the society is extremely unequal then people’s (almost inevitable, sadly) upward envy can only refer to examples that are totally out of their reach by legitimate means. In a society like Australia it’s entirely possible to do well at school, go to University, work hard, and with only a modicum of luck end up in the top 5% or so. In somewhere like Thailand that’s just not possible.

    People are, in general, very strongly inclined to stick to what are considered legitimate paths in their society. that inclination is so strong that it keeps people on the straight and narrow even when they’re looking at a world like ours where the upper crust is pretty damned far out of the vast majority’s league. In the developed world we have reference points for our goals that are easily within reach – buying a new car, a house, a flat screen television, a new iphone, etc. Then we have aspirational reference points – a bigger house, a nicer car, that sort of thing. They’re reachable if we work on it, though they’re often quite hard to achieve. Above those we have dreams that we can look at from afar and which if we’re lucky enough we can maybe hope to reach.

    In somewhere like Thailand the bulk of the population /can’t/ realistically achieve many of the basic goals, and the aspirational goals are probably completely out of reach. In that situation people’s inclination to stay within legitimate paths breaks down fairly quickly, and things like corruption become far more acceptable on both an individual and societal level.

    Just making it possible for people to realistically aspire to things like television sets, cars and nice smartphones may well be enough to shift people’s view of petty cheating and breaking of rules, making corruption rarer and hopefully ultimately making it the preserve of sociopaths.

    himi

  15. Good Morning

    Psephos is leaving Thailand in the nick of time. Protests turning violent. Going to get worse as the red shirt majority react to being denied their vote.

  16. Abbott plans to expand/increase work for the dole. This is because people love living on $250 week and need to be encouraged to get work that pays more than the $250

    But in typical hypocritical Abbott manner at the same time Abbott has cut funding to training programs that would help the unemployed gain skills for employment.

  17. Interesting analysis by Bianca Hall regarding the “one punch” legislation in NSW.

    According to Hall, O’Farrell’s laws will apply statewide and to both public and private situations – with a probable unintended consequence being to the benefit of women.

    That is, acts of domestic violence will be also be captured by this law.

    Hall says that since 2000 there have been 91 deaths Australia-wide from one-punch assaults, yet there were 45 homicides in family settings during 2012-13 in Victoria alone.

    Australia-wide it has been estimated that 44 per cent of all ”intimate partner homicides” involve alcohol.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/new-laws-will-also-hit-domestic-violence-20140125-31f9i.html#ixzz2rXye1zX0

    By contrast, in Afghanistan where according to Psephos women have never had it better, in 2013 “the Ministry of Justice added a provision to the criminal justice code banning testimony from family members, making it difficult to prosecute for domestic abuse.”

    Read much more about the reduction in women rights across the board in Afghanistan throughout 2013 here:

    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia/2014/01/hrw-women-rights-declining-afghanistan-20141221119835144.html

    When I said the other night I thank my lucky stars I’m a female in Australia rather than in Afghanistan, I didn’t think I was making a feminist statement, rather I was saying how much better it is for women in the West.

    Women at least have a choice, and are protected by law in the West. And seemingly will be even better protected by O’Farrell’s new laws.

    Disclaimer: Some women do commit acts of violence against men.

  18. “@bkjabour: Australia Monarchist League says “almost certain violence” wld accompany a referendum on recognising indigenous people in the constitution”

    “@bkjabour: “Certainly white settlement was not without problems, but had the British not colonised this country and brought with them the concept…”

    “@bkjabour: … of law and order, Australia would not be the great and united nation it is today.” Australian Monarchist League”

    “@bkjabour: The AML also says Aboriginal recognition is set back decades when Aldi and Big W withdraw Australia est 1788 t-shirts “in fear of vandals””

  19. Interesting –
    [Asst. Employment Minister Luke Hartysuker says those working for the dole in aged care homes would be … ‘gardening’ or painting.— Latika Bourke (@latikambourke) January 26, 2014]

    Around here aged care facilities either have paid staff who carry out all maintenance including painting and gardening or they take on local contractors who are paid to provide that service. Is Mr Hartsuyker suggesting that these employees should become unemployed so work for the dole slaves can take their place? It’s entirely possible, should his brain fart become reality, that a worker made redundant by this whacko policy might find himself/herself doing as ‘work for the dole’ exactly the same job they were once paid a decent wage to do.

    I smell a very large rat here. Could this be a scheme to get some extra cash into the already bulging coffers of aged care providers? They can cut their manintenance costs by getting rid of paid staff and/or contractors and instead get it done at tax-payers’ expense by the unemployed.

  20. Tony Abbott has copped copious criticism over the last while. The polls are down, some of his new bestest friends didn’t invite him to their birthday parties, and his Gettysburg Address at Davos turned into a right fizzog.

    So, you can’t blame him for being down in the dumps, wondering if he’s really cut out for the big job.

    Sing along with Tones as he reflects on his future and a possible succession plan. Cue: “Riptide” by Vance Joy.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7RXFadHu6M

    I am scared of deviants and darkies
    I am scared of bolshie girls who won’t go near my ironing
    Oh, all my friends are turning red
    In my company they wouldn’t be seen dead
    :- (
    uh ooh ooh oooh
    uh ooh ooh am coming unstuck!
    :- (
    Lately, getting’ pulled out by the riptide
    Things are lookin’ on the dark side
    Peta’s my gun left hand man
    As for Malcolm, Joe, Julie and Scooter
    Instead of whacking Bill up the hooter
    I’m surrounded by losers
    :- (
    There’s this movie that I’m told I’ll like
    This bird gallivants all around, claimin’ lots of expenses
    They say the bird’s a bit like me
    By swannin’ around, become the ugly duckling
    :- (
    uh ooh ooh oooh
    uh ooh ooh feathers coming unstuck!
    :- (
    Lately, getting’ pulled out by the riptide
    Things are lookin’ on the dark side
    Peta’s my gun left hand man
    As for Malcolm, Joe, Julie and Scooter
    Instead of whacking Bill up the hooter
    I’m surrounded by losers
    :- (
    I just wanna, I just wanna know
    What I’m gonna, what I’m gonna do
    I just gotta, I just gotta know
    Nothing else I can, nothing else I can do
    But to pull the plug on this pageant
    Nothing else for it but to install, Peta as Princess Regent
    :- (
    Lately, getting’ pulled out by the riptide
    Things are lookin’ on the dark side
    Peta’s my gun left hand man
    As for Malcolm, Joe, Julie and Scooter
    Instead of whacking Bill up the hooter
    I’m surrounded by losers

  21. The New York Times has extensive coverage of the World Economic Forum(WEF) in Davos, with a dedicated web page and many feature articles exploring the key themes and major players. None mentions Abbott — who, by virtue of the high regard for his predecessor, finds himself the accidental president of the G20for 2014.

  22. The Guardian in Britain headlined its piece “Does Tony Abbott always make the same speech?” and reported that it “struck a familiar tone and was criticised for being inappropriately partisan.”

  23. Abbott’s speech confirmed the nagging suspicions many have had since he assumed the prime ministership, following one of the most manipulated media campaigns in any democracy in living memory.

    It repeated all the trite slogans that worked in Western Sydney:

    “You can’t spend what you haven’t got.”

    “Markets are the proven answer to the problem of scarcity.”

    “No country has ever taxed or subsidised its way to prosperity.”

  24. In New York last October, Abbott was roundly condemned for a political attack on Kevin Rudd.

    American Academic Clinton Fernandes said he created an image of

    “… coarseness, amateurishness and viciousness.”

    Political scientist Norman Ornstein surmised:

    “Perhaps you can chalk it up to a rookie mistake. But it is a pretty big one.”

    Clearly, Abbott has learned nothing from that humiliation three months ago.

    Abbott then continued to spruik domestic politics — the commission of audit, paid parental leave, cutting the numbers of pensioners, and infrastructure, especially roads:

    “… because time spent in traffic jams is time lost from work and family.”

    He concluded with a final hypocrisy — following his attack on Labor for spending so much on infrastructure during the GFC.

    He gobsmacked anyone still listening with this:

    “Then, there’s the worldwide ‘infrastructure deficit’, with the OECD estimating that over 50 trillion dollars in infrastructure investment is needed by 2030.”

    Several questions arise.

    Why such an appalling performance? Where are his advisers? Does he think he needs no advice? Or is the whole Coalition this amateurish and oafish — or worse?

    And why, as ABC News highlighted, is he still battling Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard?

    Does this reflect self-doubt about his capacity in the role? They had a vision for the nation; he does not. They had plans to improve the prospects for pensioners, students and people with disabilities; he does not. They nurtured the economy; he cannot. They had character, integrity and authority; he simply does not.

    Perhaps it confirms that Abbott knows deep down that the 2013 ‘win’ was illegitimate — that it was secured only by deception and dishonesty.

  25. [Interestingly, sales of the Aus are still half of what they were 6 months ago. The Aus doesn’t look like reclaiming the lost customers.]

    One also gets the feeling that Foxtel isn’t doing too well, either. There are an awful lot of begging TV commercials, offering all kinds of “no frills” hookups at the moment.

    Soon there’ll be free broadband on offer. Yes, Foxtel is going into the internet business. Funny, that…

    The other funny thing is that the Turnbull Fraudband dog’s breakfast will be providing the perfect bandwidth for the generally low resolution Foxtel, but not for anything of much higher quality.

    And with upload speeds restricted, there won’t be any little “Foxtel” copycat operations beaming up to the rest of the world.

    You’ll need to be in a CBD, with mega data capacity available, which will suit the CBD property developers, motorway builders and general spivs and shonks that imaging Australian cities are (or could be) Little Apples.

    Bonus points for Rupert’s little operation not having to lay so many cables to households in the future. The taxpayer will fund his rollout for him!

    Ah, for the old NBN, the one that delivered optical fibre (and concomitant down and upload speeds) to just about everywhere. Rupert can’t won’t have that.

    He’s just invested billions in sport and BBC programming (to name just two), so that we can purchase a smart card and use 1990s technology set top boxes to watch them.

    With the Labor NBN, every PC would have been a potential Foxtel receiver, except for the hardware obstacle of needing a box of bit on top of it.

    And not just Foxtel. And there’s the rub…

    Murdoch has something to prove to the Jews and Gnomes of New York who told him to take his crappy newspapers and his outdated Foxtel.. please.. and go play in the far-off sandpit of Australia where he was still capable of being a Big Wheel.

    He has something to prove to the New York money lenders. He’d see them as “The Establishment”, the types who’ve written him off many times before, and who wrote his father off too. There’s all kinds of revenge and schadenfreude in the offing for Rupert if he can pull of buying a whole country, and its government.

    It’s the equivalent of trying to ban horseless carriages, of course, and with just about the same chances of success. Technology always finds a way.

    It’s just a pity that the time it will take for the nation to see sense and vote in a government that’s serious about communications (as an alternative to, say, manufacturing, which this government seems intent on closing down in its maniacal campaign against unions), will see us drop even further behind in the Clever Stakes.

    Get rid of even the rump of manufacturing that we have, reintroduce UK civics into schools, tell the Asians, black and brown immigrants that there is only one view of history (one that dismisses their histories and heritages), concentrate on industries of the future, like digging holes, so that other nations may profit from our resources, and then reward the hole diggers with riches, low taxes and hero status.

    What a blueprint for a nation!

    And all because Rupert Murdoch backed the wrong horse, and just couldn’t being himself to swap, mid-stream. That, and he just doesn’t like The Establishment telling him what he can, and can’t do.

  26. Ausdavo
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 8:50 am | PERMALINK
    After this quick visit I’m off to open the newsagency and help distribute Murdoch’s big 3 – Courier, Tele and Aus.
    The first two are bought more for their racing guides than their distorted reporting. s
    Interestingly, sales of the Aus are still half of what they were 6 months ago. The Aus doesn’t look like reclaiming the lost customers.
    Have a great holiday everyone.

    You have made my day saying that 🙂

  27. AA

    Not to forget that anything and everything a roman catholic does is wiped off the charge sheet by a fess up, a mea culpa, and a decade of the rosary.

    Whatever you do is ‘fixed’ with doG, and you are sweet for Heaven. What else could possibly matter?

  28. BB

    Last year News Corp was a world wide success.

    The Oz is on life support because it is a cheap way to purchase government. But the other shareholders are not all that interested, and have forced Murdoch to shed it. He delayed the timing for after the last Fed election.

    They are now hiving off the print division, have put in a money bag sweetener and are trying to flog it off.

  29. Ausdavo

    Like Mari I am cheered to hear of The Australian’s struggles. but sadly it’s influence continues while the lazy people in the rest of the media take their lead from it.

  30. Felt physically ill watching a hooked tiger shark on the news thismorning take 5 shotgun blasts to the head then get sliced open and it’s tail hacked off then dumped out to sea.

    A disgusting an appalling policy.

  31. I watched Foxtel when I was staying with family recently. A few years ago it was relatively ad-free. It was showing repeats of old favorites while the 3 commercial channels were increasingly given over to ‘reality TV’, dating and cooking shows.

    But now the ad breaks are as long an intrusive as those on free to air TV. Foxtel shows pretty much the same stuff as found on the new digital channels. I’m not particularly interested in sport so that’s not an inducement for me. So why bother forking out $100 a month for the privilege.

    And it’s largely owned by Murdoch.

  32. and – As a kid I had an imaginary friend, I would talk with him and he went everywhere with me.

    Then I grew up and stopped going to church

  33. Rex D:

    Yes, it’s not good. I hope this comes back to bite Barnett firmly on the butt. It’s a stupid policy which will do SFA except plunder our biodiversity.

  34. I am not surprised that the Australian is losing readers. It was always right-leaning but a credible journal of record with a stable of interesting and entertaining columnists. But in the last few years it has become as biased as its tabloid stablemates and seems to have embarked on a crusade (jihad?) against climate science. I decided I wasn’t going to pay for this crap and stopped buying. I am sure many of its erstwhile customers felt the same.

  35. Front page story on-line of the AFR:

    [Coalition fetes Rupert’s main man in NYC gala

    It was a scene that just six months ago would have beggared belief.

    The Australian foreign minister sitting at dinner next to Rupert Murdoch’s right-hand media man, Robert Thomson, and then toasting him in front of a 650-strong audience of political and business elite.

    On New York’s iconic Wall Street at a black tie gala dinner on Friday night, the tectonic shift in government and media relations since the federal election was on overt display.

    Julie Bishop, foreign minister and deputy leader of the Liberal Party, presented Thomson, chief executive of News Corp, with an award for outstanding corporate achievement.

    “Considered among the smartest journalists of his time and now one of the most successful CEOs as head of one of the world’s largest media organisations, Robert Thomson is nevertheless well and truly grounded by his Aussie background,” Bishop said…

    “Julie, you are what I’ve always aspired to be – an articulate, intelligent Australian,” Thomson said. “I have one of those things – I’m an Australian.”

    And, noticing the eye-catching black outfit that Bishop was wearing and which nobody had missed, Thomson followed up with this cheeky line.

    “I’ve always wanted to wear a dress like that but I don’t think I would get away with it.”

    When you’re among friends, it’s easy to get away with such mischievous remarks.]
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/coalition_fetes_rupert_main_man_PRjdpRzvFk5XDQkuANtW5M

    Picture of our foreign minister doing the honours. Are the West Coast Eagles playing in New York?

    What an accompaniment to breakfast… 🙁

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