Seat of the week: Port Adelaide

Keeping things focused on South Australia as the state election looms into view, the latest instalment of Seat of the Week takes us to the state’s safest Labor seat.

Numbers indicate size of two-party preferred booth majority for Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Port Adelaide includes Port Adelaide itself and the adjacent Le Fevre Peninsula, including the suburbs around Sempahore and Largs Bay, along with Woodville and its surrounds to the north of the city and, some distance to the north-east, a stretch of suburbs from Parfield Gardens north to Salisbury North, which are separated from the rest of the electorate by the Dry Creek industrial area. A very safe seat for Labor, its margin after the 2013 election was 14.0%, pared back from a redistribution-adjusted 20.9% by a 6.9% swing to the Liberals.

Port Adelaide was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949 from an area that had previously made Hindmarsh a safe seat for Labor. Such was Labor’s strength that the Liberals did not field candidates in 1954 and 1955, when the only competition for Labor came from the Communist Party. Rod Sawford assumed the seat at a by-election in 1988 upon the resignation of the rather more high-profile Mick Young, who had been the member since 1974. With Sawford’s retirement at the 2007 election the seat passed on to Mark Butler, the state secretary of the Left faction Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union and a descendant of two conservative state premiers: his great- and great-great-grandfathers, both of whom were called Sir Richard Butler.

Butler quietly established himself as a rising star over Labor’s two terms in government, winning promotion to parliamentary secretary in June 2009 and then to the junior ministry portfolios of mental health and ageing after the 2010 election. The latter promotion came despite his noted hesitancy in jumping aboard the Julia Gillard bandwagon during the June 2010 leadership coup. Butler was elevated to cabinet in December 2011 when social inclusion was added to his existing responsibilities, and he further gained housing and homeless in the February 2013 reshuffle which followed the departure of Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans. He remained solidly behind Gillard when Kevin Rudd challenged her for the leadership in February 2012, but emerged among the decisive defectors to the Rudd camp ahead of his successful leadership bid in June 2013. The subsequent reshuffle saw him promoted to environment and climate change, which he retained in the shadow ministry following the election defeat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

581 comments on “Seat of the week: Port Adelaide”

Comments Page 1 of 12
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  2. P1

    When more of your life is behind you than ahead of you, it naturally seems more important to rewrite history than to change the future.

    Best just leave them to it – time is both a necessary and sufficient remedy for such nonsense.

    True. It’s also that the more time and effort people have spent on something, the more it is their identity. Anything that criticises that persons party/cult/faction etc is perceived as a personal assault and so there is endless repairs to and defence of the fantasy castle the person lives in..

  3. When are we going to see some more polling? Obviously not this weekend, but maybe a Newspoll or Neilsen next weekend perhaps?

  4. William

    I’ve got a friend who knows Butler. She said he was really gutted by having to choose between Gillard and Rudd at the end and agonised over it. She says he’s a really good guy.

  5. confessions: I will be surprised if we don’t get at least one of Newspoll or Nielsen next weekend. Newspoll especially will be latest on recent record if not out next weekend.

    From previous:

    zoomster@2425

    KB

    don’t know if you caught my post yesterday thanking you for that piece, which I’ve distributed widely.

    Pspehs are getting to be a dime a dozen (sorry, William)– good analysis of policy in plain language is a rare beast indeed.

    So thank you.

    Yes I did see that and thanks for doing so. It’s an issue which I really despair of the poor quality of public debate about and understanding of.

  6. @confessions

    A guy from Morgan came to my friend’s house yesterday, asking questions about a whole raft of things including fed voting intention, so I’m assuming they’ve got ne coming out after the long weekend.

  8. [KB
    don’t know if you caught my post yesterday thanking you for that piece, which I’ve distributed widely.

    {snip} good analysis of policy in plain language is a rare beast indeed.

    So thank you.]

    +1

    Very informative and useful piece, Mr B. I have also passed it on to a few who can use it.

  9. RE Hillary Clinton and disasterous policies
    ____________________
    _Last night with surprising _honesty…Psephos told us that the peak zionist Lobby group…AIPAC,,,will lavishily fund Clinton for the next Presidential campaign….that’s a way of buying influence …they are good at that and have vast funding and wealth to do it
    That was Psephos not me…so hold off ESL… on charges of anti-semitism…

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/lrc-blog/hillary-clintons-responsibility-for-libyas-misery

    A US writer today looks at the disasters in the M East which have affected the whole world since Bush’s Iraq wsar…and the article loooks at the crisis and collapse effected Libya…a special Clinton project

    and we know those who want anokther major conflict which would effect us all..,.with Iran …a nation 4 times as populous as Iraq and five times as difficult to subdue
    Psephos said that”Iran must be dealt with”…I think he means a war like Iraq.
    Clinton however ,funded by the Lobby would be a danger to peace .. Perhaps with Blair and Bush she should be appearing before the Hague War Crimes Tribunal

  13. I’m at liberty to say that ReachTEL were reported in the field a couple of days ago:

    [ dion kennedy @dionkennedy1

    Just did Reachtel survey -rate PM Op leader,state of economy past present and future -does welfare need review]

    Presumably voting intention in the mix there too.

    As soon as any poll other than Essential is released my aggregate will be re-activated. It went to sleep because it was hungry a couple of weeks ago.

  14. Hi Boerwar.

    Things are good. My mother is now based in Melbourne, and will be moving into a flat across the road from me in a couple of weeks.

    We are having fun playing in the garden and nagging my OH.

    I hope all is well with you and your family.

  15. deblonay

    Back about the “noughties” when the drums of war against Iran were beating loud in Washington a snippet was leaked . No doubt from within the military. The Pentagon had war gamed a war with Iran and the US had come second 3 out of the five times.
    The decisive factors were the anti ship + air missiles they had along the Hormuz and the fact they were set up deep underground where nothing short of nuclear bombs would take them out. That and their “swarms” of anti ship missile armed small boats that would overwhelm defenses.

  17. [deblonay

    Back about the “noughties” when the drums of war against Iran were beating loud in Washington a snippet was leaked . No doubt from within the military. The Pentagon had war gamed a war with Iran and the US had come second 3 out of the five times.
    The decisive factors were the anti ship + air missiles they had along the Hormuz and the fact they were set up deep underground where nothing short of nuclear bombs would take them out. That and their “swarms” of anti ship missile armed small boats that would overwhelm defenses.

    by poroti on Jan 26, 2014 at 3:37 pm]

    Well, not terribly surprising, IMHO. The US came second in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. They won practically every single battle but lost the wars.

  20. Boerwar

    And a few days ago there were people suggesting we should go to war with Indonesia and we would win because of cultural differences or some such.

  22. [ Prime Minister Tony Abbott is determined that recognising indigenous people in Australia’s constitution is a “national crusade” that should be important to everyone. ]

    Everything with Abbott has to be a “crusade” because he lacks the critical faculties to either understand or expound any rational arguments.

    Someone probably told him this will win him some votes – which to him probably just means he might hold onto his job a bit longer.

  23. No, Diog – charities, pollsters and political parties will always be exempt. That’s because the latter are responsible for the regulations.

  24. Z

    [No, Diog – charities, pollsters and political parties will always be exempt. That’s because the latter are responsible for the regulations.]

    Why should pollsters and political parties be exempt?

  27. Prime Minister Tony Abbott is determined that recognising indigenous people in Australia’s constitution is a “national crusade” that should be important to everyone.

    Ok, so where was Abbott on this issue over the last 3 years when an official process to do this was put in place?

    The committee formed to look at this decided that there wasn’t enough support to take anything to a referendum quickly – and a lack of bipartisanship on this issue would have been a major factor in that.

    Yes, Abbott and co never dissed the concept entirely, but they were always strangely absent from the debate and unenthusiastic about it.

    So, opportunistic and hypocritical are a given with Abbott I guess, so let’s move on.

    Making a big deal out of this (and it remains to be seen whether a ‘national crusade’ is something that Abbott actually makes a big deal of) is risky for Abbott.

    He can’t afford to talk too big about this because his party and his supporters won’t let him support any substantive change to the constitution. “Recognition” in Abbott’s hands is almost undoubtedly just something not too far removed from Howard’s “let’s fiddle with the preamble and job done”.

    If Abbott makes a big deal out of this and then delivers Howard-mark-2 I don’t think that will go down too well. The Mundines and Pearsons who have hitched themselves to his wagon are the ones who most fiercely talk about how pointless tokenism and symbolism are, but that’s all Abbott can offer here.

  29. Jackol

    In fairness to Abbott he has been in favor of that for quite a while.

    Bolt has called him a racist for supporting it.

  30. [Boerwar

    And a few days ago there were people suggesting we should go to war with Indonesia and we would win because of cultural differences or some such.

    by rossmcg on Jan 26, 2014 at 3:49 pm]

    There are certainly some people who think that culture matters and that it would make the vital difference between victory and defeat in a war with Indonesia. I suppose relative ‘cultures’ might help to explain partially why we lost in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, so ‘culture’ might not be such an irrelevant consideration in a possible war with Indonesia. Memo to self: reread Patrick White’s oevre, the King James version of the Bible from cover to cover, watch the entire series of ‘Neighbours’, listen to Kylie Minogue for one whole day and listen to replays of all of Abbott’s speeches – all the while draped in the Australian flag.

  31. [The default will be that telemarketers can’t ring you unless you opt in on a register as someone they can ring.]

    Sounds like a reverse do not call register.

    There are (or are plans for) do not knock laws here so salespeople can’t door knock your house, but I think religious people and pollsters are exempt from those too.

  32. Diog

    didn’t say they should be, just that they would be (people here are always confusing explaining with supporting — you can explain something without agreeing with it).

  33. Diog – I’m not sure what ‘it’ is that Abbott has been in favour of – there are a couple of different proposals on the table, as I understand it, ranging from the Howard-style adding words to the preamble to substantive stuff about removing race powers and the like.

    But that’s not what I’m saying about hypocrisy. Now that he’s in government it’s a “National Crusade”. When the process was under way under the previous government where was Abbott talking about it being a “Crusade” and going on about how the ALP government wasn’t moving quickly enough or prioritizing it etc?

    The LNP were as silent as they could be on the issue without actually opposing it. Until now.

  34. [The committee formed to look at this decided that there wasn’t enough support to take anything to a referendum quickly – and a lack of bipartisanship on this issue would have been a major factor in that.

    Yes, Abbott and co never dissed the concept entirely, but they were always strangely absent from the debate and unenthusiastic about it.]

    Ken Wyatt was the Liberal representative on that committee, but towards the end of the parliamentary term he was pulled off it from memory, and the coalition started to really disengage from the issue.

    If Abbott can get the coalition back re-engaged with constitutional recognition, I will be happy. Even more so if he can put aside his thuggery and effect the bipartisanship in order to deliver it.

  35. zoomster

    You need to keep in mind that most of us here are adults.

    Do you address those in your class room like you speak to people on here.

    Enough already!

  36. [a national crusade]

    So, the Mad Monk is launching a Christian-style Jihad. But against what or against whom?

    I thought we had already beaten the Indigenous people into some sort of submission?

    If Abbott follows Howard’s lead, his government will systematically target Indigenous organisations as the enemy of the government.

    In Opposition, Abbott appeared to think that a week’s FIFO posturing in a Cape York community by a stranger actually made a difference on the ground and provided some sort of experiential alternative to solid policy work on Indigenous programs and policies.

    How else could we explain that Abbott has already cut spending for Indigenous organisations including organisations dedicated to addressing one of the great injustices in Australia – the overpolicing of Indigenous people and their disproportionate incarceration rates. Abbott has formed a completely unrepresentative Indigenous Advisory Council. Mundine’s public contribution has been to explain that Indigenous people have to suffer along with everyone else when budgetary conditions are tough. (He must have forgotten about the 15,000 wealthiest superannuants who gobbled up an additional $300 million at the same time as Abbott was cutting Indigenous programs.) Abbott’s hand-picked adviser on Indigenous education (a non-Indigenous person) is doing a review of education – and, with some prescience, announced the outcomes before he commenced the review. Two of Abbott’s mates, Estens and Tudge, are recommending ‘transitional’ jobs, aka jobs which will have lesser pay and fewer conditions for Indigenous persons. And here’s a prediction: if the Abbott Government can find a way of gaining direct control of the Indigenous Land Corporation funds and the Indigenous Business Australia funds, it will do so.

    So while the Mad Monk is preaching a holy jihad on behalf of Indigenous people, the Abbott Government’s real war on Indigenous people has already started.

    Meh. White man speaks with forked tongue.

  37. MTBW

    sorry, but Diog asked me to justify something when I was only answering his question. (and seriously, diog can look after himself – what business is it of yours how I talk to him? Talk about interfering old busy bodies…)

  40. Abbott did not want a referendum into recognition to mess up his election strategy, it may have moved him off message.

    So he got Brandis to fluff about lack of consultation, when it was Abbott et al that killed it off. I reckon the same thing will happen next tine a referendum is put forward, it will never be quite the proper time for the Libs.

  41. Zoomster

    Take heart, your situation was covered by Johne Donne, many centuries ago:

    [THE SUN RISING.
    by John Donne

    BUSY old fool, unruly Sun,
    Why dost thou thus,
    Through windows, and through curtains, call on us ?
    Must to thy motions lovers’ seasons run ?
    Saucy pedantic wretch, go chide
    Late school-boys and sour prentices,
    Go tell court-huntsmen that the king will ride,
    Call country ants to harvest offices ;
    Love, all alike, no season knows nor clime,
    Nor hours, days, months, which are the rags of time.

    …]

    http://www.luminarium.org/sevenlit/donne/sunrising.htm

  42. Boerwar:

    As usual your unique way with words has cut this down to what it really is:

    [White man speaks with forked tongue.]

  45. rua

    [Abbott did not want a referendum into recognition to mess up his election strategy, it may have moved him off message.

    So he got Brandis to fluff about lack of consultation, when it was Abbott et al that killed it off. I reckon the same thing will happen next tine a referendum is put forward, it will never be quite the proper time for the Libs.

    by ruawake on Jan 26, 2014 at 4:29 pm]

    The reactionaries were petrified that the changes would be to the body of the Constitution in which case, depending on the substance of the changes, Indigenous people might no longer be totally dependent on the Mad Monks of Australia for whatever they decide to piss down on them. Potentially, in such circumstances, Indigenous people could take issues themselves off to the High Court instead.

    My guess is that Abbott, with Mundine in tow, will come up with some mealy-mouthed set of words in the Preamble. They will sell this to the reactionaries and the shock jocks as not making any real differences while at the same time taking all the pressure off genuine Constitutional change. Further, they will be able to put it up and put Labor into a position of seeming to oppose Indigenous ‘progress’. In such a scenario, the only real interest is whether Pearson, who would be fully aware of the implications of the difference between Preamble and Body of the Constitution, finally parts public company with Abbott.

  49. Cf Butler.

    IMHO, it is a special quality of rotten apples that they tend to leave the people around them only with bad choices.

    The Liberals are finding this with whatever they might do, for example, with the PPL.

    One down. One to go.

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