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| Numbers indicate size of two-party preferred booth majority for Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
The electorate of Port Adelaide includes Port Adelaide itself and the adjacent Le Fevre Peninsula, including the suburbs around Sempahore and Largs Bay, along with Woodville and its surrounds to the north of the city and, some distance to the north-east, a stretch of suburbs from Parfield Gardens north to Salisbury North, which are separated from the rest of the electorate by the Dry Creek industrial area. A very safe seat for Labor, its margin after the 2013 election was 14.0%, pared back from a redistribution-adjusted 20.9% by a 6.9% swing to the Liberals.
Port Adelaide was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949 from an area that had previously made Hindmarsh a safe seat for Labor. Such was Labor’s strength that the Liberals did not field candidates in 1954 and 1955, when the only competition for Labor came from the Communist Party. Rod Sawford assumed the seat at a by-election in 1988 upon the resignation of the rather more high-profile Mick Young, who had been the member since 1974. With Sawford’s retirement at the 2007 election the seat passed on to Mark Butler, the state secretary of the Left faction Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union and a descendant of two conservative state premiers: his great- and great-great-grandfathers, both of whom were called Sir Richard Butler.
Butler quietly established himself as a rising star over Labor’s two terms in government, winning promotion to parliamentary secretary in June 2009 and then to the junior ministry portfolios of mental health and ageing after the 2010 election. The latter promotion came despite his noted hesitancy in jumping aboard the Julia Gillard bandwagon during the June 2010 leadership coup. Butler was elevated to cabinet in December 2011 when social inclusion was added to his existing responsibilities, and he further gained housing and homeless in the February 2013 reshuffle which followed the departure of Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans. He remained solidly behind Gillard when Kevin Rudd challenged her for the leadership in February 2012, but emerged among the decisive defectors to the Rudd camp ahead of his successful leadership bid in June 2013. The subsequent reshuffle saw him promoted to environment and climate change, which he retained in the shadow ministry following the election defeat.
Diog
No. You’re allowed to do some work, just as you are on any other form of pension (I think in the case of DSP it’s limited to 15 hours a week).
Given that — as we’ve discussed endlessly — someone who works one hour a week can be counted as ’employed’, a DSP recipient working one day a week could also be counted as ’employed’.
mb
Thanks for that. Obviously some medical conditions fluctuate in their severity.
Furthermore if a person has been employed for a period of time which is less than two years Centrelink would still meet meet the person and review the person’s circumstances but generally if the person is still finding their way into the workforce Centrelink takes a flexible approach.
Re unemployment: when I finished full time education in the early 1970s unemployment was something that my parents’ generation remembered from before the war. The Federal Government worried when unemployment climbed towards 2%. There was full employment in Australia in those days., from the end of WW2 until 1974.
It all changed in 1974 when the ongoing impacts of the first oil shock hit Australia. Unemployment and inflation both rocketed. At the time it was all blamed on Gough. Others blamed ‘dole bludgers’, although it was never explained why several hundred thousand people decided to abandon work in the space of a year. In any case, the same was happening worldwide.
Since that time, we’ve never been able to run the economy without pushing the bottom 5 to 10% of the workforce out of employment. Unemployment in Australia has never been below 4% since 1974 and never below 5% except for brief periods. ‘Full employment’ used to mean about 1% unemployment but since the mid 70s means about 5%.
Business interests and their political allies say its because wages are too high, but low wage countries also have high unemployment. Clearly globalisation and the end of protection have a lot to do with it.
499
The DSP is for those who cannot work more than 15 hour per week. Thus if they are applying for less than 15 hours of work, there is probably no reason to think they can work more than 15 hours and thus they would not loose their DSP.
Thank you all. That makes sense.
bemused
as I suspected, we were actually largely in agreement.
Whether or not the official ABS figures (which Mitchell, as you note, uses himself) represent the true state of employment or not is a moot point. We measure things the way we measure them; you are never going to get a system which everyone agrees with (for example, we have an official measure of population which everyone accepts for the purposes of discussion, but which clearly cannot be accurate).
The evidence is that, over the last ten years, Australia has had as good an employment position as it ever has. That doesn’t mean things are going to stay that way, and I haven’t argued that they will.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/01/27/australia-s-turn-back-boat-policy-there-always-a-choice.html Interesting read
I was watching some b-grade movie his afternoon on FTA (nine probably) and they were running the story about the adolescent in Westmead Hospital who had been assaulted at a party. Naturally, they went for the “coward’s punch’ meme. They didn’t even qualify it as “what has been called … ”
Hmm … Murdoch …
More generally though as this was a party we don’t even have the licenced premises thing to connect it, nor can we really know how affected by alcohol the attacker was. We probably don’t even know if the attacker struck the victim once or multiple times or if the blow that ostensibly caused the victim to fall was delivered in he course of a struggle.
On the question of “alcohol-fuelled violence” it seems to me that tougher sentences, and certainly mandatorily tougher sentences can serve no good purpose and is subversive of good sentencing practice. If we are troubled by he role of alcohol usage in predisposing dangerous physical conflict, then it seems far easier just to make alcohol somewhat less accessible. Not inaccessible mind you, but less so than it is now. Let licences to supply alcohol in a particular precinct be capped by volume and make putative licensees bid for quota. Let those entertaining customers on premises also bid for quota. Let all alcohol supply stop between 10pm and 10am. Exempt alcohol suppliers from competition policy, allowing them to collude on pricing. And of course, tax alcohol more heavily. Much more heavily. Use the extra revenue to create alternative entertainment for the under 30s and to police the licencing regime.
Oh … And create a legal regime for the supply of THC-based drugs.
Sure the alcohol industry wouldn’t like it, but if they are keen …
Steve
that’s where participation rates kick in and cloud the picture — even in the early seventies the number of women who stayed at home and weren’t seeking work was quite significant.
When we’re comparing figures, that needs to be kept in mind.
I think – and I haven’t checked this, so I might be wrong – that Australia has both a high participation rate and a high employment rate at present, and this is a very rare convergence.
Tom
Its not that they cannot work more than 15 hours but due to the disability or medical condition the person is deemed as not being able to work as productively as a skilled qualified experienced worker.
Of course a lot depends on the person and the condition which is why Gillard was right to return it too 30 hours.
507
The post war unemployment level was lower than it has been in the last few decades. For most of 3 decades, pretty much any employable person could get a job. There was a lower participation rate because of married women mostly not being employed but that does not explain the unemployment rate being several times higher today than then.
Mumbles writes
[PRIME Minister Tony Abbott had this to say on the weekend about his cherished planned constitutional amendment:
“If we had known in 1901 what we know now, if our hearts had been as big then as now, we would have acknowledged Indigenous people in the constitution back then”.
News Ltd columnist Andrew Bolt could not disagree more, blogging in response that this was “utter nonsense”.
“Australia’s founders no more lacked heart than do people today”, he writes. “The difference is that they were inspired by the creed that all citizens are as one before the law.”]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/abbott_and_bolt_both_wrong/
victoria
BoltA missed a word.
[…..they were inspired by the creed that all European citizens are as one before the law.]
Victoria
[“Australia’s founders no more lacked heart than do people today”, he writes. “The difference is that they were inspired by the creed that all citizens are as one before the law.”]
Hardly. They got into an almighty bunfight about how to exclude the indigenous from population data and about the right of the states to treat them as if they were fauna. Equally, they were keen on keeping out those who were not of British stock, particularly if they were dark-skinned, as were many of the folk in Britain’s colonial territories.
Bolt once again underlines his ignorance and the reality that nationalism is a form of mythology.
Obama has real problems with his Health care plan
_________________________________________
Obamacare has been badly sold by the White House and a range of polls(see below) shows its support level running far below the “against” score in polls across the USA
and this in a congressional election Year(Nov)
How could those around the White House run such a poor campaign to sell the plan…in a place where advertising is so powerful???
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html
Australia’s participation rate, which refers to the proportion of people working or looking for work during the month, was steady on 64.8 per cent.
September’s participation rate figure was revised down from 64.9 per cent to 64.8 per cent
FRan…re myths
________
Napolean knew about nationalism…He said “men and nations are led by myths”
rua
If you are around I have just caught up with your news.
My deepest sympathies to you and yours and take special care of your Mum.
It is hard!
Tom
Women make up 46% of the workforce – so if we sent even half of them back home, that would create just short of 5 billion jobs.
At present, there are around 720,000 unemployed.
Damn maths – – 2.5 billion (read the wrong sum off my scribbling….)
Still trumps the unemployment figure and even the underemployment figure.
Zoom and you’re doing a Barnaby on us…
If you want to know how DSP works, who gets it, how many hours a recipent can work and whatever then why not go straight to the human services website and look it up instead of playing Chinese Whispers here.
Try this – just use the links.
http://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/themes/people-with-a-disability
More re the Murdoch Monster_________
____________________
I wonder if he is the most significant propaganda figure in the history of the media after the notorious Dr Goebells
In the USA he funds “The Weekly Standard” which is also free on line
It is the national mouthpiece of many of Murdoch’s pet interests and favourites …The warmongering Neo-Cons,the Tea Party,(created by his Fox men )a host of right-wing Repugnants, and the zionist Lobby with really virulent ones like Kristol and Wolfowitz and Bonkers Bolton
So they want an end to welfare,cut out food stamps,make the poor hungry and they’ll find work,and wait for the miracle of capitalism to solve all problems
Like “The Oz” the “Weekly Standard” is often quoted by the lazy media…and like The Oz it loses millions each year….but its one of Murdochs influence buying publications and he must love it…and like the Oz it might NOT survive his demise because it is a financial black-hole…though widely available and on line too
Have a look..see the familiar Murdoch style
Murdoch’s “Weekly Standard”
______________________ Have a looki
http://www.weeklystandard.com/
Steve777@504
We must be of a similar vintage.
Here is the nub of the problem:
[Employment remains low and is lagging GDP growth, a pattern that began at least three recessions ago and that has become more pronounced with each recovery. In most advanced economies, the tradable sector has generated very limited job growth – a problem that, until 2008, domestic demand “solved” by employing lots of people in the non-tradable sector (government, health care, construction, and retail).]
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/michael-spence-explains-why–secular-stagnation–is-not-a-problem-that-the-us-and-other-advanced-economies-should-try-to-solve
Leone What Chinese whispers would that be?
victoria:
Mumble tweeted earlier re indigenous constitutional recognition:
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 5h
. @Drag0nista @joshgnosis Original constitution did specifically acknowledge Indigenous Australians. Just not in a positive way.]
Some social and economic changes since the early 1970s contributing to higher unemployment. This is my take, the list is far from exhaustive:
– end of protection means stronger competition from imports. Of course even if it were a good idea, protection is no longer an option
– automation, including computerisation, has eliminated many jobs that were done by the less skilled (or even those with skills – jobs involving manual record keeping, filing, typing, even jobs like bank teller)
– many other jobs done by the less skilled have either been exported (e.g. Less skilled manufacturing) or are no longer done (e.g. tea lady, bus conductor, railway ticket collector)
– State and Federal Governments and their agencies absorbed one quarter of school leavers year after year, including many apprentices. This no longer happens on anything like that scale
– most of those who for whatever reason are unable to complete school and gain qualifications of some sort are effectively unemployable now but could get a job back then. They get left behind.
– private companies are far more aware of the bottom line and are quick to get rid of surplus staff. There are no more jobs for life. In the 70s people didn’t get retrenched 5 minutes after they ran out of work (or before they ran out of work, with their erstwhile colleagues having to take it on).
Another hole for HoJo to fill.
[Small and medium businesses locked out of ‘direct action’, Coalition warned
The CEFC also points out in its submission that the new government’s plan to abolish it is not cost-free. Treasury’s economic forecasts put the cost of carbon price repeal at more than $7bn.]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/27/direct-action-risks-failure-if-the-ret-is-scrapped-coalition-warned
rua, I’m sorry to read your news and offer my condolences to you and your family.
521
I presume you are talking about Australia and thus mean 2.5 million jobs rather than billions.
That of course ignores that fact that the mass employment of married and otherwise partnered women unlike the situation in the post war period, except with it increasing towards the end of that period, created many hundreds of thousands of jobs, especially in the childcare and domestic services industries, through necessity and greater demand.
A willingness to have employment encouragement and economic equality policies more like those of the post war period would lower unemployment and underemployment and raise equality. A tight labour market is key to greater equality.
Dreadful news RUA. Let me wish you the very best in dealing with your loss.
Steve
all of those are trumped by the numbers of women in the workforce.
Not saying it’s a bad thing!
Yes, the changes you refer to occurred – but since the Industrial Revolution, these kind of adjustments have been happening.
I could (most probably) sit down and make a similar list of vanished opportunities for the 1950s, another time of high employment (but where workforce participation was comparatively low).
(I’m being tantalised by sources which claim to give me workforce participation graphs for Australia going back to 1967 but which only appear to start in 2002 – but even those clearly show a steady rise in the workforce).
Hockey re-applies a debt limit. He only ever wanted it increased, not done away with –
[ Hockey sets debt limit at $500bn
Treasurer Joe Hockey has given a directive to set Australia’s debt limit at $500 billion, despite parliament voting to abolish the ceiling altogether.
The directive relating to government borrowing was officially gazetted on January 22.
“I direct that the maximum total face value of stock and securities that may be on issue is $500 billion,” Mr Hockey states.
The directive expires on April 1, 2024.
A spokesman for Mr Hockey said it was in line with the legislation passed in December to abolish Labor’s $300 billion debt ceiling and “satisfied funding and operation requirements”.
The abolition of the debt limit was the result of a compromise with the Australian Greens, after Mr Hockey’s initial attempt to legislate the $500 billion ceiling failed.
The mid-year economic review released last year forecast debt to rise from $310 billion in 2013-14 to $460 billion by 2016-17, and $667 billion by 2023-24 if the budget is not brought under control. ]
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/1/27/national-affairs/hockey-sets-debt-limit-500bn
Tom
Told you my maths was wonky!
11,000,000 in jobs, 46% of these are women, so we’ll say around 5 million, send half home and you create 2.5 million jobs for a unemployed population of 700,000. Even if you double that for ‘underemployed’ you’ve still comfortably accounted for them.
That I can get the figures so badly wrong and it still works shows that it’s increased workforce participation by women which explains the main difference between Australia pre 1970 and now.
Your idea that women working creates jobs for women has merit, but again the numbers don’t match – it would take ten women returning home before one childcare worker lost their job, for example.
Of course I’m being very broad brush here!
513
Mumble making a good point about the original Constitution but then arguing in favour of a more elitist, less progressive way of changing the Constitution.
Having state based elected conventions or state parliaments in charge of approving (or not as the case may be) constitutional amendments, like happens in Canada and the USA, would allow genuinely publicly opposed constitutional changes through because majorities four state conventions do not represent overall public opinion.
zoomster@536
Not good enough! I demand evidence and calculations correct to 3 decimal places! 👿
As I mentioned a few weeks back, I’m reading Shirers Rise and Fall of the Third Reich. I cannot recommend it highly enough to anyone, like me , who only knows the basics of WWII.
Actually I’m mainly listening to it on Audible when I’m in the car which is the easy option but it’s more enjoyable.
Having given up on the 1967 to the present graph (damn you and your website for all eternity, World Bank!) here’s this from the RBA –
[The participation rate has risen over recent decades, peaking in late 2010 (Graph C1). However, over the past two years the participation rate has declined, owing to both structural and cyclical factors.]
[..The upward trend in the participation rate over the past three decades has primarily reflected increased participation by women and older people in the workforce]
Some nice graphs — from 1982 onwards – demonstrating that male participation has been basically stable, people staying in the workforce beyond 55 has risen, and the participation of women has risen dramatically.
http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2013/feb/graphs/graph-c2.html
The participation rate fell —
[ over the past two years the participation rate has declined by around ¾ percentage point]
[Hockey re-applies a debt limit. He only ever wanted it increased, not done away with -]
Plus to give Labor a whack over the economy and try to further tarnish their record in govt.
The hypocrisy from this mob is shocking.
536
Sending the women home , or the men home instead, would cause a massive drop in demand for goods and services because household income would decline significantly, for the same jobs create demand reason behind the paradox of thrift that means austerity makes depressions worse not better.
rua 449
Deepest sympathy.
I lost my folks a couple of years ago and know how you feel.
bemused
I’m not that picky. I’d just like you to occasionally use evidence (and particularly, evidence which supports what you’re saying. It’s a bit pointless using evidence which supports what I’m saying…)
Dio
“medical condition” and “disability” are not synonymous terms.
The demography which mainly uses the terms interchangeably, and thus to many persons with a disability insultingly, is medicos.
Tom
now you’re getting things confused. I’m not saying we should send women home. I’m just saying that, when you compare unemployment now to unemployment a couple of decades ago, you need to remember that women weren’t in the workforce in anywhere near the same numbers.
That’s enough to account for the difference, without looking for any other excuses.
Diogenes@539
I read it years (decades?) ago and I agree with you.
Another good one is “The Struggle for Europe” by Chester Wilmott, although it is limited to the Western Front in Europe.
Anthony Beevors books on WWII are all good.
I am currently following WWII Tweets from 1942 and then looking up a lot of things on Wikipedia. Learnt a lot already.
There was an interesting 3 part series on SBS TV that finished last night. “Generation War” which is a German production from a German perspective. Should be available on the SBS website.
The tragedy of the whole damn thing makes me want to weep. 🙁
Diog
during my period of temporary disability, I was assessed as not needing to seek work (to be reviewed after a year).
I still sought work, and indeed still worked during this period – it’s just that I wasn’t required to in order to receive Newstart benefits.
And so the lies continue
TREASURER Joe Hockey has given a directive to set Australia’s debt limit at $500 billion, despite parliament voting to abolish the ceiling altogether.
Mr Hockey’s directive relating to government borrowing was officially gazetted on January 22.
“I direct that the maximum total face value of stock and securities that may be on issue is $500 billion,” Mr Hockey states.
The directive expires on April 1, 2024.
The government tried to set the debt cap at $500bn in 2013, but Labor would not agree to it.
Subsequently the coalition reached a deal with the Greens to abolish the debt cap altogether.
The Treasury has now borrowed $500bn, consistent with the government’ initial position.
A spokesman for Mr Hockey said the decision was in line with the legislation passed in December and “satisfied funding and operation requirements”.
Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said it was a classic example of the Coalition saying one thing before the election and delivering the opposite after.
zoomster@544
Get over yourself.
My evidence supported what I was saying.