Morgan has released what it describes as the “first major public opinion poll of 2014”, though it could just as easily have dropped the “major”. It provides no indication of festive cheer softening attitudes towards the new government, showing the Coalition down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39% with Labor also down half a point to 38%, the Greens up half a point to 10.5% and the Palmer United Party steady on 3.5%. That translates to a 53-47 lead to Labor on 2013 preference flows and 52.5-47.5 on the headline respondent-allocated figure. As has been Morgan’s form for a while now, this poll combines its regular weekend face-to-face polling with SMS component, in this case encompassing 2527 respondents from the two weekends past. The first Essential Research result for the year should be with us tomorrow.
UPDATE: Little change also from Essential Research, which opens it account for the year with a result from the polling period of Friday to Monday only, rather than its two-week rolling average. This has the Coalition leading 51-49, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens each up a point on the primary vote to 45%, 38% and 8% respectively, with the Palmer United Party steady on 4% and others down two to 6%. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, showing a slight improvement for Tony Abbott – up two on approval to 47% and down three on disapproval to 43% – and a softening for Bill Shorten, down four to 35% and up one to 32%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s lead shifting from 43-33 to 42-31. The poll also finds strong opposition to fees for GP visits, with 28% approving and 64% disapproving, and 47% support for Australia becoming a republic at the end of the Queen’s reign against 32% opposed.
144
The RBA may have learn’t from the past. We have had ridiculous buying power for a long time while the rest of the world is working out how to repay there unpayable debt. If they were to hike in front of USA,Uk,Euro,NZ and others it would not only be a huge mistake but the most talked about world wide.
I don’t think there’s any mechanism for “sacking judges” unless they are convicted of an offence. There certainly ought not to be.
149
I do not believe they have refused a revote on those grounds for a HoR recount.
There was a Senate revote in SA in 1906, not refused on the grounds of cost.
Dodgy http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/doubts-over-work-by-wife-of-exmp-alex-somlyay-20140113-30qvk.html
152
The grounds are “proved misbehavior or incapacity”. It does not say to whom it has to be proved or to what standard.
http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Australia_Constitution_Act
[Immaca … sacking judges is thankfully not a feature of our political landscape…]
Ok, point taken. Then chain them to their desks and refuse them port, cigars, and internet porn until they clear their case backlog. 🙁
Anyway, this is a silly discussion (like many involving Tom). No-one is going to sack the High Court for being slow to make decisions.
The fairfax count was slow. Every body knows why. The high court is probably facing the same issue.
157
William started it.
The High Court is unlikely to be slow enough for anybody of consequence to consider sackings.
Psephos 157 … fair enough …but no harm in having a grumble about their glacial decision making. I wouldn’t want them making the decisions in a real crisis.
TTFaB – I’m not sure phrasing it in terms of “refuse a revote” is very useful. Some of the petitions have suggested a fresh vote (presumably the AEC’s has suggested it), but some have certainly not – the ALP and PUP, eg, I’m assuming have suggested that the initial count should stand.
The Court of Disputed Returns isn’t therefore “refusing a revote”, they’re trying to judge what the best outcome is, given the fuckups that have led us to this point.
And part of that assessment is the matter of cost, as well as fairness.
It’s not a matter of judging what the law says – the law is silent on what should happen now, apart from saying the CoDR has the power and the duty to resolve the issue.
[Psephos 157 … fair enough …but no harm in having a grumble about their glacial decision making. I wouldn’t want them making the decisions in a real crisis.]
They decided the ACT marriage case very quickly, when the AG asked them to.
[The fallacy of the so-called “Judeo-Christian heritage ”]
I enjoyed that piece, about time. As if Christianity wasn’t primarily responsible for 2000 years of anti-Semitism. Teach the kids that!
But no, the Anglophone Right invents one hyphenated oxymoron and it magically goes away.
[I enjoyed that piece, about time. As if Christianity wasn’t primarily responsible for 2000 years of anti-Semitism. Teach the kids that! But no, the Anglophone Right invents one hyphenated oxymoron and it magically goes away.]
That’s true, but of course there is a “Judeo-Christian heritage” because Christian beliefs and ethics, which have been profoundly important in shaping our culture, are based on the beliefs and ethics of Judaism. Christianity began as a sect of Judaism, based on the false-Messiah cult of Yeshua ben Yosif, a millenarian Jewish preacher. By the same tokem, there is a “Judeo-Islamic heritage”, too, because Islam began as a false-prophet cult based on Judaism. It was only when the Jews of Mecca rejected Mohammed’s claim to be a prophet that he turned his cult into a new religion. The Quran is a confused jumble of Jewish and Christian themes and stories, mixed in with pagan elements. Judaism, therefore, has been far and away the influential body of thought in human history.
That last sentence should say “most influential.”
161
The AEC calling for a revote has to carry a lot of weight and the political parties/candidates arguing against it are mainly (and transparently) just arguing that their candidate should be elected without a new election.
[They decided the ACT marriage case very quickly, when the AG asked them to.]
Cool, lets all email Brandis and i’m sure he’ll get the Ashby appeal sorted toot sweet. 🙂
TTFaB – and none of that changes the nature of the decision the CoDR has to make or how it chooses to make that decision.
Just because a political party argues for an outcome that favours its candidate doesn’t make that outcome a bad one – the Court would want to have more justification than just the arguments of the political parties in question, of course.
And just because the AEC recommends a course of action to rectify its fuckups doesn’t mean the Court is obliged to follow that recommendation.
ie the Court needs to assess all the possible options and decide which one is the best in terms of the integrity of the election process along with practicalities like the cost to the public.
Is a newspoll expected tonight?
The tension builds…
Bit early in the year for Newspoll, and we’d certainly have seen it by now if there was one coming this week. History shows it’s a bit unpredictable in its date of return after the Christmas break:
15-17 January 2010
4-6 February 2011
27-29 January 2012
11-13 January 2013
William Bowe
Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 8:35 pm | Permalink
YB, the objective evidence suggests that Sean is actually a very important thinker, because 47% of your comments (I counted) relate to him in some way.]
Blimey, when I read that, I though to myself, if only I had been born with that level of intelligence, the whole world would have been, not just my oyster, but a hole string of pearls.
In such case, if I was not careful, I could easily strangle myself if I were to be too vain in decorating myself with those pearls of wisdom that gave me such enjoyment ! 😉
[ Judaism, therefore, has been far and away the influential body of thought in human history. ]
Yeah! It was particularly influential in Asia.In China,Japan and Indonesia etc specifically where most of the people of the world live!
It really made a mark in world history there!
It made a great mark in less than a quarter of the population of the world who thought it an interesting concept to attempt to wipe out itself in the name of religion.
As Richey Benaud would say, MARVELOUS!
05:04:00 14/01/2014 ——- Nett_NEWS++™ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy #auspol NB Pique of the Week
[ie the Court needs to assess all the possible options and decide which one is the best in terms of the integrity of the election process along with practicalities like the cost to the public.]
You would think the cost argument would not weigh very heavily, it’s far more important that the result be seen to be correct.
If the Fairfax newspapers’ allegations against Alex Somalyay are substantiated and bear out the prima facie case of defrauding the Commonwealth, then the Coalition has some serious questions to answer — Somalyay was the (then) Opposition Whip in his time — the fish rots from the head down, and there appears to be a strong likelihood of entrenched impropriety among senior ranks of the Coalition.
Makes Craig Thomson look like a rank amateur — he got caught allegedly diddling a union credit card (a matter still untested in Court) before he was even an MP, and has been crucified for it — whereas Somalyay gets to retire on a fat MPs pension, having got out before he was sprung.
Stinks to high heaven — hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars handed over to an MP’s wife for doing nuthin’ at all — especially given the gormless Coalition grandstanding over Slipper’s (one of their own) taxi ride to a winery…
Makes all the Coalition barrackers’ confected outrage over Thomson and Slipper look all the more hollow.
Greedy greedy grubs who have no business pointing the finger at others.
The Somlyay stuff will be investigated with vigour by the Sunshine Coast Daily, just like Slipper. 😆 🙁
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Labor should really go to town on this! Unless, of course, similar things don’t exist among its own ranks. And check out the trademark Liberal hypocrisy remarks at the end of the article.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/allegations-mps-wife-drew-taxpayerfunded-salary-despite-doing-no-work-20140113-30qwu.html
Some more push back on Pyne’s curriculum brain fart.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/educators-take-minister-to-task-over-national-curriculum-review-20140113-30qm4.html
Well done Nicola and Julia! And Abbott will find it very hard to wind back.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/plain-packaging-cigarettes-prompted-a-spike-in-quitline-calls-20140113-30qwz.html
I hope the Senate committee has a field day with this!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-shepherd-urged-to-reveal-interests-20140113-30qv5.html
Here’s a good view of privatisation.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/privatisation-doesnt-always-lead-to-public-good-20140112-30oqu.html
Virginia Trioli gets a new gig.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jan/13/abcs-virginia-trioli-leaves-news-24-to-host-flagship-radio-program-am
Greg Jericho on the minimum wage.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/grogonomics/2014/jan/13/minimum-wage-fear-and-loathing-not-based-on-evidence
There will be many eyes on these cases.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/13/high-court-challenge-could-enable-asylum-seekers-to-stay-in-australia
Section 2 . . .
MUST SEE! David Rowe’e Public Service announcement re the heat wave.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
Alan Moir targets George Brandis this morning.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
Cathy Wilcox on religion.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
David Pope with a glorious image of Sharon.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
And Pat Campbell has a contribution on Israel.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
psephos@164
The mullah high command has placed a fatwa on you for speaking badly about Quran.
And from the Land of the Free –
And the digging on Chris Christie’s motives continues.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/01/12/chris-christie-answered-every-last-question-except-the-ones-that-werent-asked/
http://crooksandliars.com/2014/01/was-bridgegate-related-1-billion
http://crooksandliars.com/2014/01/cnn-feds-investigating-how-christie-used
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/13/chris-christie-investigation_n_4588132.html
Of course FoxNews comes to his rescue.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1017&pid=169184
This Pope will get assassinated the way he is going!
http://crooksandliars.com/2014/01/pope-frank-mothers-sistine-chapel-nurse-0
Mike Papantonio hammers the rude and odious Stuart Varney of FoxNews.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017169256
The WA senate hearing in the High Court is on 29 and 30 January
BK
Thanks as always
Pleased to hear of Logan’s weight gain
Morning all, and thanks BK. A lovely set of poll numbers to start the new years.
Honeymoon over, Mr Abbott, now please get on with your job. What? You only know how to criticise and destroy, not how to reform? Hmmm. A PM elected by default, turns out to not be up to the job.
Also glad to hear about Logan’s weight gain, a good sign, BK.
As for Somylay, how is claiming a wage while not working not fraud? It is no different to what Williamson and family did to the HSU, and deserves the same prosecutorial effort.
[As for Somylay, how is claiming a wage while not working not fraud? It is no different to what Williamson and family did to the HSU, and deserves the same prosecutorial effort.]
Good morning Socrates
Come on! They will say it’s the free market working.
BK
Indeed. As the customer, I’d like my money back. Buyer beware?
Have a good day all.
A bit of a tongue in cheek article looking at repealing red tape for small business – — given that Abbott’s government is unlikely to implement any of them, as they were Labor promises
http://www.smartcompany.com.au/legal/35118-government-to-hold-first-annual-repeal-day-four-pieces-of-red-tape-small-businesses-could-do-without.html#
Good Morning
On the WA Senate case. I think Antony Green is on the money.
The choice is keeping the integrity of the vote or not. Having the Court decide the result will end up with a Florida style decision that decided the President.
Compared to that cost is a long way down the list of concern.
ltep – I agree cost considerations should be discounted in the interests of the best outcome, but can’t be dismissed altogether.
Ultimately the Court is entirely within its rights to say that, in their judgment, the cost (in terms of money, but also inconvenience/frustration to the good folk of Western Australia) of rerunning the election is very high, and some marginal additional “correctness” is not worth it.
I’ve come around to the point of view that not only is a fresh election expensive, but it is the outcome that is least consistent with the September election. If the Court is concerned with restoring things to being as close as possible to the result sans AEC fuckups, then a fresh election is the poorest choice.
We’ll find out in due course what they are prioritizing.
Sound familiar ?
[Dude, where’s my North Sea oil money?
The party she led still touts itself as the bunch you can trust with the nation’s money. But that isn’t the evidence from the North Sea. That debacle shows the Conservatives as being as profligate as sailors on shore leave.]
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/13/north-sea-oil-money-uk-norwegians-fund
[The WA senate hearing in the High Court is on 29 and 30 January]
Thanks shellbell.
Re the WA Senate – the High Court has to decide which course of action is least worst:
– Go with the initial count, as the best available expression of the electorate’s will, in spite of the flaws that required a recount
– Go with the recount as the best available expression, in spite of missing votes
– Get a fresh expression of the will of the electorate, six months or more after they were asked the first time, with all the water that has passed under the bridge since then and the cost that this entails.
@jonathanvswan: Allegations MP’s wife drew taxpayer-funded salary despite doing no work http://t.co/ZzLnGKzQDS via @smh
“@jonathanvswan: In his farewell speech on June 24, 2013, Mr Somlyay spoke of his uncommon integrity. ”When I was first elected…”
“@jonathanvswan: “, I promised myself that I would never do the things people hate about politics,” Mr Somlyay said.”
“@jonathanvswan: ”People hate deceit and untrustworthiness in their politicians. ”My word is my bond and I can honestly say that, in my 23 years..”
“@jonathanvswan: ” in Parliament, I have never betrayed a confidence – yet.””
Psephos,
[Judaism, therefore, has been far and away the influential body of thought in human history.]
Unless, of course, you’re Chinese, or Japanese, or African, or a scholar of Ancient Greece, or a modern liberal democrat (you know, anti-slavery and stuff…).
I have an admiration of Jewish people, but these revisionist statements just are not factual.
Sean from last topic:
[it just surprises me that Vic Labor would jump into bed with Geoff Shaw to try and punish a speaker who reported him for coruption.
It really hits new lows for Labor… but this doesn’t surprise me, rorters seem to be their bread and butter these days.]
So what surprises you doesn’t surprise you? I suppose that suggests that what doesn’t surprise you surprises you. I’m not sure how one could live with a paradox as general as that.
So very true
[Roger Underwood, a bushfire specialist and former general manager of CALM,…
….NOT even Superman could save the many houses in the Perth Hills that have basically been “built to burn”
“We have had inquiries, we had the Keelty inquiry, we had hundreds of recommendations, and we have all sorts of people trying… but nothing seems to change on the ground. People just don’t take any notice of it]
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/expert-fears-deadly-blaze-will-not-be-a-wakeup-call-for-many-illprepared-residents/story-fnhocxo3-1226800755443
Morning bludgers
It is already 27 degrees here. Expected top 43. The wind has also picked up. I dont like summer!
Btw daughter who had commenced her Industry based job this year, was at the epicentre of the earghquake yesterday. The whole building shook. She had always missed the previous tremors experienced in Melbourne. Not this time. Initially they thought a truck had hit the building.
Justice Robert Jackson said about the US supreme court: we are not the final court of appeal because we are infallible; we are infallible because we are the final court of appeal.
poroti
This week is a shocker for Victoria, 40 plus days are forecast. If I lived in a high risk fire prone area, I would be out of there. I know it is not feasible for everyone to do that, but that would be my first course of action.
A senator-elect in NSW reckons we in Tassie should solve our economic problems by
lowering the minimum wage
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-14/tasmanian-told-to-wake-up-to-itself-and-pay-its-way/5198498?section=tas
And more calls for our GST to be cut. I know we’ve had assurances that it won’t be, but it’s a big concern and makes me even gladder thatI escaped the workforce last year.