Seat of the week: Ryan

The subject of a better-late-than-never Seat of the Week is the wealthiest electorate in Brisbane, which has reverted solidly to conservative type since a fleeting moment of glory for Labor in 2001.

Teal and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The western Brisbane seat of Ryan is dominated geographically by the Taylor Range to the city’s north-west, but nearly all of its voters are drawn from the suburban plains to the east and south. The suburbs of Ferny Grove and Enoggera at the northern end are Labor-leaning, but in the south are wealthier Indooroopilly and Kenmore on the northern shore of the Brisbane River, with conservative-leaning The Gap and Bardon lying in between. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, from territory which had been passed around over time between Lilley, Brisbane and Moreton. It has covered much the same area since, although between 1998 and 2010 the northern end was exchanged for Middle Park and Jindalee south of the river.

Ryan has been won easily won by the Liberals, and more lately the Liberal National Party, at every general election since its creation. Prior to 2001 it had had only two members, firstly Nigel Drury until 1975, and then Howard government Defence Minister John Moore. Then came the only interruption to the seat’s history of conservative dominance after Moore quit parliament when he lost his portfolio in a reshuffle. At a troubled time for the Howard government, the ensuing by-election in February 2001 was won by Labor with a 9.8% swing, giving them what proved an ill-founded confidence boost concerning their prospects at the election due later in the year. Labor member Leonie Short went on to defeat the following November at the hands of Liberals candidate Michael Johnson, a 34-year-old Hong Kong-born and Cambridge-educated barrister of part Chinese extraction. Johnson won a local preselection plebiscite amid loud complaints of branch stacking, and after a defeated candidate’s successful Supreme Court action against a move by the state executive to install its own candidate.

The statewide swing to Labor in 2007 cut the margin from 10.4% to 3.8%, from which it was further reduced to 1.1% by the redistribution that took effect at the 2010 election. Meanwhile opposition to Johnson was mounting within his own party, with reports emerging of an internal investigation into his expenditure records and fundraising activities. In May 2010 he was expelled from the party for attempting to broker an export deal between the Queensland Coal Corporation and a Chinese conglomerate during parliamentary sittings and with the use of his parliamentary email address. A preselection was then won comfortably by Jane Prentice, who served the Indooroopilly-based ward of Walter Taylor on Brisbane City Council. Johnson ran as an independent in 2010 but secured only 8.5% of the vote, with Prentice securing the seat for the LNP with a 6.0% swing. She picked up a further 1.4% swing in 2013, boosting her margin to 8.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

991 comments on “Seat of the week: Ryan”

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  1. re Bernadi and

    “the ABC is crowding Fairfax and Murdoch out of the internet space ….. it prevents competition and stops them from making a profit”

    is the equivalent of saying that the Milky Way is crowding out the other galaxies from the Universe.

  2. What is it with these SA Liberals?

    Pyne? Enough said?

    Bernadi? Enough said.

    Downer? So using spey services for commercial gain is a storm in a tea cup …… old news. Well here’s hoping.

    My delight if this bastard got bitten by his past unethical behaviour would be extreme.

    I was going to say that my delight would be unmatched and supreme if Downer got his comeuppence but then I thought of the queue ….. Abbott, Pyne, both Bishops, Dutton, Morriscum, Abetz, Minchin, Cash, Bernardi …… there are so many potential delights in store for me if there is a Dog and all of these geese’s chickens come home to roost.

  4. This quote is interesting, in that it provides an insight into the government’s approach —

    [The government is incredulous at being denied its plans to scrap the carbon and mining taxes and at being forced to negotiate with the Greens..]

    http://www.thecourier.com.au/story/1949859/australian-prime-minister-tony-abbott-threatens-tougher-action-on-asylum-seekers-after-losing-parliamentary-vote/

    I accept it’s unattributed and not too much weight should be placed on a statement made in a newspaper article – but I would argue that it fits the evidence.

    It’s all very well to argue that Abbott is used to being the Golden Child, sitting back and letting someone else (Dad, John Howard…) sort out his problems for him, but much the same mentality seems to apply to the government as a whole.

    It was evident in Opposition – when it was pointed out to a Liberal MP (as it was on many occasions) that carbon pricing was going to sail through Parliament, their answer was always that they believed some Labor MPs would cross the floor and vote against it. When this failed to happen in the HoR, this fantasy was transferred to the Senate.

    It was evident in the way Abbott approached negotiations with the indies. I’m sure he was incredulous then that they didn’t just do what they were told.

    It hasn’t needed much political knowledge at all to understand that the present Senate is controlled by people who voted for the measures that Abbott is now asking them to vote out.

    A party who looked like they had a chance to form government at the next election would have factored this into their strategies.

    They wouldn’t be ‘incredulous’ when the bleeding obvious happened.

  10. Only just heard this morning that Greens have conditions (more transparency/reporting) on the removal of debt ceiling. Most reports have implied Greens simply letting it through. The media concentrating more on the sideshow, of course.

  11. 109

    I am not an ALP member, so I will not be emailing them.

    I was just pointing out what Psephos had posted, in case you missed it.

  13. Eric Abetz, is a millstone around Tasmania’s neck,

    [This is highlighted by two significant job-creating and economy-stimulating projects of great benefit to Tasmania which depended on private innovative thinking outside the negative politics practised by thinkers like Abetz.

    MONA has succeeded because politicians had no say in it. Unlike the hundreds of millions of dollars if taxpayers’ money which, as Minister for Forests, Eric Abetz injected into the job-shedding logging industry in Tasmania, MONA was not built on government handouts.

    “Now we have Graeme Woods’ Triabunna triumph of a concept for converting a failed woodchip mill into a successful modern, tourism hub which promises to be the pride of the region and once again without government handouts. Like all the other woodchip mills in Tasmania, this one was closed and rusting when Wood took it over. Now he has unveiled plans for an exciting tourism and scientific study centre and Abetz is bad-mouthing both the project and the visionary behind it. Abetz is a millstone around Tasmania’s neck in 2013,” Brown says.]

    http://bobbrown.org.au/content/index.php/foundation/media_extended/millstone-abetz

  14. [ “the ABC is crowding Fairfax and Murdoch out of the internet space ….. it prevents competition and stops them from making a profit”]

    So when you have more competition you prevent competition. Well if you say so Bernadi.

  15. “@jessmcguire: Someone at the ABC needs to make a brutal but necessary threat to older conservative voters: stand up to Liberals or lose Midsomer Murders!”

  18. bemused

    given that we were all being assured that it wasn’t on the Admin committee agenda, of course it was a feeble campaign.

    We thought we’d won the battle – HO had, after all, opened nominations, finalised the voting rolls and mailed out a timetable for the vote.

    If there’d been more evidence that Admin was going to reverse its decision, then there would have been a more vigorous campaign.

  19. Hogwashgate
    Could a case for compensation be made for ruining a man’s career out of political spite? (And this journalist gets the spelling of Thomson correct)

    [This must be a blow for the mainstream, as a Thomson trial without the sex and the sleaze is a bit like a sausage without the sizzle.

    Yesterday, I note heralded the return of Pia Ackerman, … to writing on the matter for The Australian.

    Despite the dismissal of charges relating to brothels and escorts, and the porn movies turning out to be Julie Andrews musicals for all we know, Pia Ackerman who has been slammed by the magistrate for her “factually incorrect” reporting on this case couldn’t help but add her unique sense of Murdochian “balance” and “factual reporting” to her article yesterday, when she asserted:

    ‘Mr Thomson is facing over 200 charges relating to alleged misuse of Health Services Union credit cards to pay for pornographic films, female escorts, flights and cash withdrawals during his time as the union’s national secretary and as a Labor MP.’

    Actually, Pia, it’s 145 charges now, it’s The Sound Of Music, not pornographic films, and there are no escorts anymore. But never mind, why don’t you throw in a couple of war crimes while you’re at it?

    On Monday morning, I described the case so far by saying that “the circus continues”. Seems I was underestimating.]

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/craig-thomson-trial-day-two–reversal,5952

  20. Abbott: The Mother of All Negotiators

    (1) Negotiates with Reith to run for Liberal Party President: Result: Reith does not gain presidency as a result of an Abbott stab-in-the-back. Other result, recently: Reith has been publicly and loudly scathing of Graincorp decision.

    (1) Negotiates with conservative-leaning Independents for their support for out of three years of government. Result: Independents give support to Labor. Other result: Indies reckon that Abbott would sell his arse for power.

    (2) Imposes deadline on Australia to achieve FTA with China. Result: China has upper hand in FTA negotiations.

    (3) Negotiates various co-operative arrangements with Sudhoyono. Result: various co-operative arrangements with Indonesia come to a dead halt. Other result: negotiations on intelligence sharing recommence. Based on Abbott’s record, good luck with that. Other result: Indonesia continues to get all of its Australian foreign aid – at the expense of Australian funding of programs to control global expidemics, such as that for malaria.

    (4) Negotiates internal Liberal/National Party compromises on Archer Daniels Midlands takeover deal. Result: There is no compromise and Australia is closed for business.

    (5) Negotiates with states on agreements for $1.2 billion education hand-out. Result: The states have the cash but Abbott has no agreement from the states to do anything at all other than take the money. Other results: it turns out that Pyne does have a use for federal education bureaucrats after all.

    (6) Negotiates agreement with Sri Lankan Government. The deal is that Abbott will condone ‘difficulties’ and the Sri Lankans get two boats to ensure that Tamils cannot escape their ‘difficulties. Result: more ‘difficulties’ for Sri Lankans.

    (7) Abbott negotiates changes to the Australian cattle and sheep cruelty regime with two countries caught carrying out large-scale cruelty to Australian cattle and sheep. Abbott condones cruelty and orders ‘departmental investigations’. Result: cruelty to Australian animals continues. Other result: none – the departmental investigations have sunk without trace.

  23. Today’s CT has a ‘Food and Wine Annual Magazine’. It contains review of Canberra’s top restaurants by various reviewers. The review of ‘Eighty-six’ is written by Bryan Martin. Part of the review reads,

    [Then, of course, they have a get-out-of-here expletive awsome popcorn caramel sundae arrangement for dessert. It should be under the hidden treasures of Canberra, like Abbott election promises.]

  29. [ “@jessmcguire: Someone at the ABC needs to make a brutal but necessary threat to older conservative voters: stand up to Liberals or lose Midsomer Murders!”]

    I’m all for keeping the ABC. But the good citizens of Midsomer could use a break. Midsomer has a murder rate higher than Detroit.

  33. So once again, Abbott & Co blaming Labor, No jobs created (infact jobs lost since election), no NBN Review, No Policies, No Environment, No Schools.

  39. Over at LP, the question has been posed about whether the pope is a communist. It’s laughable of course and it was pure clickbait, but there are some christianised social democratic claims in Evangelli Gaudium (Joy of the Gospel).

    Pope Francis said this political and economic system was inherently sinful because it violated the biblical prohibition against killing.

    “Such an economy kills,” he wrote. “How can it be that it is not a news item when an elderly homeless person dies of exposure, but it is news when the stock market loses two points?”

    So if I read this correctly, then it follows that those who defend “this political and economic system” are supporters of sin and ought, in practice, to repent of their sin and do penance and seek absolution.

    This remark could have been directed at Abbott:

    “The thirst for power and possessions knows no limits,” Pope Francis wrote. “In this system, which tends to devour everything which stands in the way of increased profits, whatever is fragile, like the environment, is defenceless before the interests of a deified market, which become the only rule.”

    I recall Abbott asking the ALP to “repent” but perhaps Abbott ought to be repenting in relation to his thirst for power and willingness to sacrifice the environment in pursuit of profits and possessions, assuming his spiritual leader is to be believed.

    Someone needs to put this to him and invite him to declare where he stands on Pope Francis’s views.

  40. @gutaur/136

    This is what happens when you attack the Economy while in Opposition, Memo to Coalition Party, don’t trash talk the economy.

  43. [What is it with these SA Liberals?]

    psyclaw You left out Jamie Briggs. He’s a great regurgitator. He said ‘cleaning up Labor’s mess’ 6 times in about 3 minutes on Sky this morning.

    As for Bernardi … whoo!! I thought Fran Kelly did a good job of putting the ABC’s case but, as others have posted, Bernardi keeps his cool and it’s that deathly coolness that scares me more than anything.

  44. Fran

    I think we are going to see a lot more coming from Pope Francis.

    I imagine that rather than just talk about Christianity he will display it through the issues he takes on.

    We could be in for an interesting ride with him.

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