Wednesday 4pm. Mal Brough has today claimed a victory that was put beyond doubt by the indicative preference count, which found Bill Schoch receiving slightly less than three-quarters of preferences and not the 85% or so he required. No further updates will be added to this thread.
Monday 4pm. They’re four booths into a two-candidate preference throw between Brough and Schoch, and whereas Kevin Bonham calculates that Schoch would need a very unlikely 85.9% of preferences to overhaul Brough, early indications are that it will be more like 75%.
Sunday 6pm. I wasn’t crediting this at the close of business yesterday, but Mal Brough is by no means safe in his bid for the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, which could join neighbouring Fairfax in going to the Palmer United Party. Palmer candidate Bill Schoch will first need to finish ahead of Labor, whom he trails 21.2% (13,519 votes) to 18.1% (11,535). The most significant of the remaining candidates whose preferences will decide the matter are the Greens (7.56%, or 4824), whose how-to-vote card directed preferences to Schoch, but whose voters are famously resistant to such guidance. There’s a further 9.3% scattered among six candidates, including Peter Slipper who polled a dismal 1.44%. It needs to be kept in mind that only preferences which favour Schoch over both Brough and Labor will help him close the gap.
Assuming Schoch gets over Labor, he will still have needed to collect 85.9% of all third-party preferences ahead of Brough to win the seat. He is coming from such a low primary. I don’t think it’s realistic.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/2013-federal-election-late-counting.html
Some of us would not mind if Brough does not make it.
Peter Slipper got 921 votes!
1.4% of the vote.
He shouldn’t have bothered.
Worst result for a sitting member ever, I believe.
Come on PUP of to a slow start in the rejigged count, I hope they do it
I think there have been sitting Senators who have got a lower primary vote than what Mr Slipper got. (I know there is more competition than in a House of Reps seat, but thought I’d mention it for completeness)
[Peter Slipper got 921 votes!
1.4% of the vote.
He shouldn’t have bothered.]
That low a vote makes me think he didn’t really bother.
Andrew Bartlett@6
Yes I should have specified my comment was confined to the Reps.
After looking at today’s realignment results I have called this seat. Although they are from booths favourable to Brough, they are not so favourable as to suggest the slightest hope of PUP overturning his large re-alignment lead on preferences. Mal Brough will drop back slightly from his current 55.4%, maybe to 54-ish, but has certainly won.
The AEC may have to go back to TPP looks like PUP came third not second.
Brough by the Flemington Straight.
ruawake@9
PUP have always been third on primaries but is there also now reason to believe they will also be third after preferences?