Wednesday 4pm. Mal Brough has today claimed a victory that was put beyond doubt by the indicative preference count, which found Bill Schoch receiving slightly less than three-quarters of preferences and not the 85% or so he required. No further updates will be added to this thread.
Monday 4pm. They’re four booths into a two-candidate preference throw between Brough and Schoch, and whereas Kevin Bonham calculates that Schoch would need a very unlikely 85.9% of preferences to overhaul Brough, early indications are that it will be more like 75%.
Sunday 6pm. I wasn’t crediting this at the close of business yesterday, but Mal Brough is by no means safe in his bid for the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, which could join neighbouring Fairfax in going to the Palmer United Party. Palmer candidate Bill Schoch will first need to finish ahead of Labor, whom he trails 21.2% (13,519 votes) to 18.1% (11,535). The most significant of the remaining candidates whose preferences will decide the matter are the Greens (7.56%, or 4824), whose how-to-vote card directed preferences to Schoch, but whose voters are famously resistant to such guidance. There’s a further 9.3% scattered among six candidates, including Peter Slipper who polled a dismal 1.44%. It needs to be kept in mind that only preferences which favour Schoch over both Brough and Labor will help him close the gap.