I’m running the above headline essentially because I have no new poll to trumpet for the following assortment of bits-and-pieces. The latest addition is yesterday’s large-sample ReachTEL poll, which was a relatively good result for Labor taking into account the past lean to the Coalition in this series. Its inclusion caused a 0.6% shift in Labor’s favour without affecting the seat projection, mostly because the improvement was concentrated in Victoria where there are few marginal seats. This isn’t the first time recently that the addition of a ReachTEL result has caused BludgerTrack to move in Labor’s favour, which raises the possibility that the series is not as pro-Coalition as it used to be. If so, the addition of the result with out-of-date bias adjustments attached might be causing the present BludgerTrack numbers to flatter Labor slightly. There has apparently been, for the second evening running, a poll conducted overnight by ReachTEL which will have been unveiled on Seven Sunrise by the time most of you are reading this.
(UPDATE: A less good result today for Labor, and another good one for the Palmer United Party. Labor’s primary vote is down to 32.7% and the Coalition’s up to 43.6%, with the Greens on 10.0% and Palmer on 6.1%. Two-party preferred is 53-47 to the Coalition. ReachTEL also has a very ugly result for Labor from the Tasmanian seat of Bass, courtesy of the Launceston Examiner, with Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic on 51.8% and Labor member Geoff Lyons on 26.6%.)
Now to those bits and pieces. First, I address what looks to be one of the election’s most significant imponderables: the share of the vote that will go to micro-parties in the Senate. Much hinges on the answer, given the tightness of the preference arrangements between micro-parties and the extremely limited value of polling as a guide to the smaller details of Senate voting patterns. Tim Colebatch of Fairfax has run reports over the past week based based on what Antony Green’s Senate election calcalators come up with when seemingly plausible vote share scenarios are plugged into them, which have been partly inspired by simulations conducted by Poll Bludger commenter Truth Seeker (who details them on his own blog).
One particularly headline-grabbing observation was that Pauline Hanson might succeed in her bid for a New South Wales Senate seat at the expense of Arthur Sinodinos, who has the number three position on the Coalition ticket in New South Wales. Since Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all have Hanson last on their preference order, this can only happen if she and the various parties feeding her preferences collectively amount to more than a quota (14.3%). Colebatch argues that this is highly plausible: “In 2010, 29 micro-parties won 14 per cent of the vote between them. This time there will be 41 of them, and disillusioned Labor supporters could swell their collective vote to 20 per cent – easily enough for a Senate quota.”
This appears to assume that collective vote share of micro-parties will continue to expand as more of them enter the field. Evidence from the last three elections, which provide a common footing in that the Democrats and One Nation had faded from minor to micro-party status, provides some support for this. Excluding the unusual circumstance of South Australia in 2007, when Nick Xenophon polled a full quota in his own right, there are 17 state-level observations for modelling the relationship between the number of Senate groups and the vote share for micro-parties (which I take to mean everyone other than Labor, the Coalition and the Greens). The model I have derived is 0.243+(0.283*A)+(0.681*B), where A is the number of Senate groups and B is the “others” vote in the House of Representatives from the state in question. This has an R-squared of 0.517 and a p-value of 0.006, which is to say that the model explains 51.7% of the variation in these 17 results and has a 99.4% chance of being better than no model at all.
With unprecedented numbers of Senate groups at this election ranging from 23 in Tasmania to 44 in New South Wales, this suggests “others” votes ranging from 12.9% to 20.5% (going off the BludgerTrack projections for the lower house “others” vote), which is well in line with Colebatch’s expectations. However, there’s a considerable theoretical problem with the model in that it presumes the relationship to be perfectly linear. If this were so, the major party vote would disappear altogether if only enough micro-parties took the field. In reality, the rate of increase has to taper off, and the meagre sample of observations available offers no insight as to point at which it does so. My own guess though is that it kicks in fairly sharply before we reach the stage where we can start talking of an aggregate micro-party vote approaching 20%.
To offer some historic guidance as to the sorts of numbers you should be punching into the Senate calcalators, the table below displays the vote for micro-parties of various kinds in each state. “Religious” includes the Democratic Labour Party, although they no doubt occupy something of a grey area. The “right” category is exclusive of the “religious” one. “Left” is defined broadly to incorporate the Democrats and all environmentalist concerns, even ostensibly conservative ones. There were also parties and independents that were deemed not to fall into any of these categories, so the “total” column is not simply an aggregate of the other three.
2010 Relig. Right Left Total NSW 3.63 5.55 3.37 13.82 Victoria 5.35 3.83 3.28 13.2 Queensland 4.31 7.59 3.61 16.43 WA 3.71 2.66 2.81 9.92 SA 5 2.65 2.55 11.11 Tasmania 1.69 2.24 0.66 5.36 TOTAL 4.16 4.81 3.18 13.13 2007 NSW 3.83 3.35 2.44 10.17 Victoria 3.77 1.24 3.16 8.72 Queensland 2.76 6.73 3.04 13.08 WA 3.57 1.1 1.84 7.04 SA 3.97 1.68 1.68 22.25 Tasmania 2.67 0.19 0.78 4.38 TOTAL 3.48 2.97 2.57 10.71 2004 NSW 3.17 3.73 3.88 12.17 Victoria 4.16 1.55 4.18 10.98 Queensland 3.37 9.34 4.09 18.05 WA 2.73 2.82 3.05 9.22 SA 3.98 1.53 3.95 10.02 Tasmania 3.03 0.16 0.82 7.04 TOTAL 3.42 2.93 3.84 12.22
Now to some scattered bits of news for around the traps that I have recently used to supplement the seat-by-seat election guide:
Indi (Liberal 9.0%):Liberals have been telling journalists of serious concerns for Sophie Mirabella’s hold on Indi, where she faces a well-organised challenge from independent Cathy McGowan. The Guardian reports on widespread opinion polling being conducted in the electorate; the Weekly Times reports that Labor are campaigning strongly to boost McGowan; and The Australian reports some in the Liberal Party have been urging Tony Abbott to visit the electorate. The contest is another source of friction between the coalition parties, with former state Nationals MP Ken Jasper among those who are throwing their weight behind McGowan.
Melbourne (Greens 6.0% versus Labor): The Greens have been spruiking a poll of 400 respondents conducted for them by Galaxy showing Adam Bandt’s primary vote up 4% since the 2010 election, with “as many as four in 10” Liberal voters in the seat planning to ignore the direction of their party’s how-to-vote card that voters should favour Labor ahead of the Greens in their preference allocation. This is actually in line with the 35% rate of leakage in inner Melbourne when the Liberals likewise directed preferences against the Greens at the 2010 state election, which nonetheless wasn’t high enough to win them any of the seats they were anticipating. But taken together with the purported primary vote swing, it suggests a very close result.
McMahon (Labor 7.8%): The Liberal candidate for Chris Bowen’s western Sydney seat, Liverpool area police superintendent Ray King, has been defended by a series of police figures and corruption investigators after Labor claimed he had a “close friend” in Roger Rogerson, the notorious detective who was imprisoned in 1990 for perverting the course of justice. The claim has been denied by Rogerson as well as King, with retired assistant commissioner Geoff Schuberg complaining of a “grubby, baseless smear campaign”.
Forde (Liberal National 1.6%):The Australian reports that Forde MP Bert van Manen, who is fighting off a challenge from Peter Beattie, was the half-owner and recently resigned director of a financial planning firm which owed creditors more than $1.5 million when it collapsed last year. The report says administrators KPMG had told creditors of “unreasonable director-related transactions” behind the collapse. A Liberal spokesperson was quoted saying van Manen had personally settled with the main credtior, Westpac, but no comment was offered on $325,000 owed to three further creditors.
Greenway (Labor 0.9%): The Sydney Morning Herald observes a “systemic” silence among Liberal candidates in Sydney, “with multiple examples emerging of candidates pulling out of events or interviews”. The low profile assumed by Greenway MP Jaymes Diaz has been particularly widely noted, after he failed to show for a candidates forum in Blacktown last week.
Herbert (Liberal National 2.2%) and Dawson (Liberal National 2.4%): Sid Maher of The Australian identifies marginal seats on the central Queensland coast as the main targets for the Coalition’s promised curtailing of marine protected areas, a pitch at commercial and recreational fishers. A similar promise before the 2010 election was “credited with delivering the seat of Dawson”, by persons unidentified.
‘Thanks for biting like the numpty you are.’
Oh dear Warrior ‘biting’ now? Pillows?
Your Freudian slips are showing.
Ellis has been beckon of propaganda to counter murdoch’s concoctions. tonight must be his best. rhetoric and fiction will outlast the lies and manipulation of abbott/murdoch coalition. if they win it will be shortest roughest attempt at government in oz history
——–
10.50 pm
A good deal has happened since 2.30 and it is possible, not certain, that a million votes, many young, many female, have shifted Labor’s way since then. Depending on how quickly news penetrates, it is likely no seats will fall now in Victoria or South Australia, and one or two go to Labor in Western Australia. The Rudd/Crabb cooking show will gain Labor three seats in Queensland, and the loss of the Brisbane railway three more. Hockey’s claim that no money will be lost by the education sector though the schoolkids will lose their money will anger many Muslim women in Sydney’s west who have, sometimes, seven children at school at the one time. The ‘filter’ touted by Turnbull then cancelled and called a typo has lost the Liberals any under-twenty-five vote they might have had. The removal of money from the world’s poor has distressed some Christians, like Tim Costello, and many immigrants worried about their relatives in their home countries.
Depending on how quickly news penetrates, it is, or could be, a game changer. The forged ReachTel tomorrow morning, showing Labor on 46, will not be believed. More to come.
Wesley Rickard … Abbott gave a character reference to a subsequently ex-communicated priest charged with paedophilia, but got off, some say on the basis of Abbott’s character reference … A long time ago true, but it goes to the character and judgement question, hence the current accusations…
Rossmore
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 11:25 pm | PERMALINK
‘How many here actually think the ALP can win?’
Me, eventually, as they always do.
—me and bob
The good thing. I think the Offshore AS is going to be shot down legally and on shore will be the only thing left.
This because I do not think even Abbott is ready to exit the Refugee Treaty yet and because it might require legislation which would be blocked by the Senate.
guytaur@2048
Yes. There is range of stuff.
People are entitled to vote as they see fit as we all know.
We don’t like the outcome but can’t do much about it atm.
‘‘How many here actually think the ALP can win?’
Me, eventually, as they always do.
—me and bob’
and…Bob’s dealer
Zoidlord – sorry, was being general as its occurred on other sites.
So if you took a offence to that, apologies.
To J341983- you implied it, child porn ring with Turnball ring a bell? Twit!
palmer has been late spoiler in election. he took essential points from labor. the fat farting toad
It was in reference to a comment… and obviously in jest – get a fucking grip.
I’m still hoping for PM Alannah, come Monday.
Rosemour or Less@2049
You’re determination to damage Labor by any means has been showing for years and intensely since you announced surrender the night the election was declared and via the 40 to 50 posts kicking Labor in the guts each and every day since.
At least a dog shows loyalty.
Wesley,
So just a generalised slur suits all your purposes.
Wouldn’t expect anything better from the likes of you.
@Wesley Rickard/2056
Is ok, I think people just getting heated up (abit like Hockey was today – just not so ‘sick’).
again… I’m increasingly of the view that the polls will only tell us broadly whose winning… but the uncertainty about the preference flows and the remaining undecideds means while I’m obviously expecting the Coalition to win… but how much is seriously up in the air.
gah! who’s
Rossmore- wasn’t aware of that story!
Find it difficult to believe that Abbott would have done that if he was aware of the circumstances!
Still doesn’t justify the accusation, absolutely disgusting!
‘People are entitled to vote as they see fit as we all know.’
The problem is a large proportion of them don’t ‘see fit’ at all, they haven’t a fuking clue about anything and yet they’re compelled to vote.
…and *by*
lefty
[Abbott single handedly prevented them forming government in 2010]
The flaw in that theme is that Turnbull would never have got the Libs/Nats to a 73-72 result in 2010. Also the Green and Wilkie were always gonna be Labor bedfellows and Katter would always not join the govt, Labor or Lib. That’s part of his psyche – to never be identified with a govt and so never to blame, always independent maverick. By losing the minority PMship in 2010, the Libs, or more correctly Abbott have given the Libs 6-12 years in govt.
The costings are based on unemployment rising to 6.25 percent? I thought everybody was going to be employed under an LNP government with rainbows in the sky and unicorns frolicking in the streets…
My God! I’ll get a violin and a high-horse
“@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: ALP 35 (0) L/NP 45 (-1) GRN 9 (-1) PUP 5 #ausvotes”
[ Rosemour or Less
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 11:52 pm | Permalink
‘People are entitled to vote as they see fit as we all know.’
The problem is…. they haven’t a fuking clue about anything and yet they’re compelled to vote. ]
Fits you to a “T”.
At least a dog shows loyalty.
“Me, eventually.” A tad obtuse I concede
PB quiz: in which iconic film did the lead characther famously use the accusatory term, ‘obtuse’?
@Mick77 2068
Abbott have given the Libs 6-12 years in govt.
——
Yeah, we’ll see about that…
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2m
#Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: ALP 35 (0) L/NP 45 (-1) GRN 9 (-1) PUP 5 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Galaxy Poll Economic Management: ALP 34 (-1) L/NP 47 (+4) #ausvotes
Right… this is seriously making we wonder if these pollsters actually know what to do with these ‘others’ preferences…
The Courier-Mail shreds any remaining credibility it had as a news source: https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/375599614176399360/photo/1
I maintain my theory: Murdoch knows the days of newspapers are over, doesnt give a crap anymore, is throwing last vestiges of cred in the trash to get Abbott elected, so he gets his way in the new digital era.
Oh and if they abolish penalty rates won’t that further decrease tax receipts?
Ahhh this proposed LNP government is living in la la land, honestly they have no idea what they’re doing…
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 29s
#Galaxy Poll Performed best in campaign: Rudd 36 Abbott 43 #ausvotes
Rossmore@2073
Shawshank Redemption.
Greensborough Growler-
Pull your head in, did you read the context of which I said it?
Your defending such a vile statement ?
Warrior Dave @ 2072
What?
Your posts aren’t making sense.
I think the plate in your head is getting crossed lines from your Menzies House feed.
Tap your left temple – gently – and see if that clears the signal.
Good Luck Warrior, I’d hate them to reassign you. I’m just starting to enjoy this….
Asha
[Yeah, we’ll see about that…]
ALP hardhats here have been predicting the imminent demise of Abbott every day for close to 4 years. 6 years in government at least is close to a certainty now.
Wesley 2065 here’s the detail on Abbott’s association with an alleged paedophile….
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/a-question-of-character/p
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Galaxy Poll Economic Management: ALP 34 (-1) L/NP 47 (+4) #ausvotes
Bingo!
Goodnight
Polls taken after this that take into account costings and filtergate will be interesting.
There will be a swing away from LNP. It will just be by how much
Haha .. who would have thought this would have hit a sore spot….who even knew it was a sore spot.
The only way Labor can win is if Abbott and Turnbull get arrested for running a child porn site.
I could have said for serial murder….would that have hit a sore spot as well.
Sometimes the reaction speaks volumes.
Wesley,
I simply object to generalised smears like you seem amazngly adept at producing.
A better man would apologise instead of continuing to prosecute their perfidy.
Rossmore- The Shawshank Redemption
[ Rosemour or Less
Posted Thursday, September 5, 2013 at 11:57 pm | Permalink
Your posts aren’t making sense ]
You’re mindless attacking the party you claim to support has never made sense.
Many many posters here agree you have never made sense.
Despised indeed.
@Mod Lib/2085
Obviously didn’t include costings stuff up today.
LNP still loosing points.
guytaur
[ filtergate]
LOL, Oh yeah big news that one .. must have a “gate” after it eh gate-aur?
Wesley that link doesnt work, try this
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/a-question-of-character
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 8m
#Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: ALP 35 (0) L/NP 45 (-1) GRN 9 (-1) PUP 5 #ausvotes
Wesley .. U win the chuck. Doesnt the warden of Shawshank Prison remind you of the modern LNP?
[There will be a swing away from LNP. It will just be by how much]
And quite a few people regretting pre-voting.
Rossmore@2095
Ahem. See 2080.
Unfortunately for Labor the wrong QLD crazy party is getting the votes. Labor needed it to be KAP.