In a spirit of providing a new post every day during the campaign over and above things like the Senate of the Day entries, today I offer the following scattered assortment of bits-and-pieces relating to contentious preference deals.
• The biggest headline-generator has been the Wikileaks Party, whose most contentious choices have involved a New South Wales ticket which places the Greens behind both the quasi-fascist Australia First and, more consequentially, Shooters & Fishers, and a Western Australian ticket which has the Greens behind the Nationals. Responding to an immediate backlash on social media, the decisions were put down to “administrative errors”, which appeared to involve paperwork being lodged by activists with different ideas about strategy from the party executive. Three of the most noteworthy critics of the arrangement have been Julian Assange’s Senate running mate in Victoria, academic and ethicist Leslie Cannold, who resigned complaining that the party’s democratic processes had been bypassed (albeit that this happened too late to affect her inclusion on the ballot paper); Julian Assange’s mother, Christine Assange, who said that if she lived in Western Australian she would vote for Scott Ludlam of the Greens, who has been the strongest parliamentary supporters of her son’s cause; and Julian Assange himself, who apologised for having “over-delegated” such matters to persons evidently less capable than himself. For all that, the preference arrangements have conferred tactical advantage on the party in some cases, such as in Western Australia where it will be fed preferences from Family First, the Katter and Palmer parties, and a lengthy list of smaller concerns.
• Four parties in Victoria remarkably failed to lodge preference tickets, which among other things offered a potent insight into the closeness of the relationship between them. This was further delved into by Andrew Crook at Crikey, who noted the same personages at work behind the Liberal Democratic Party, Stop the Greens, the Smokers Rights Party and the Republican Party. A source quoted by Christian Kerr of The Australian put the non-lodgement of the tickets down to matters having been “thrown into chaos as it became clear Labor would do a deal with the Greens”. This came as bad news to the Sex Party, which had dealt its way into a national arrangement with the parties concerned that also involved One Nation. To those angered to discover that the party had done Pauline Hanson a good turn in her bid for a New South Wales seat, the party weakly responded that “you have to put these lunatic parties somewhere”, while failing to acknowledge that in Hanson’s case “somewhere” was number 10 out of 110, ahead of Labor, the Coalition and the Greens.
• The complex of preference harvesters and opportunists willing to make deals with them has gifted Pauline Hanson with what occasional psephologist Polly Morgan describes as “an incredibly favourable preference flow”. However, Hanson faces the stumbling block that the Coalition have her placed last, so unlike other parties to the arrangement she does not stand to benefit from the surplus after the election of their third Senator, which in the context of the current election could be substantial. Indeed, Hanson’s candidacy may end up doing the left a good turn, as other right-wing candidates with the potential to be elected with help from Coalition preferences could instead get excluded at an earlier stage of the count by virtue of their failure to overtake Hanson. Should Hanson not poll quite so well as that, there are a range of potential scenarios for a seat to go to a micro-party. The most likely contender could be the Liberal Democrats, who have had a lucky break in being drawn as “Group A” on the enormous Senate ballot paper. Experience suggests this will substantially boost the number of votes they get from those confusing them with the Liberal Party, the Coalition ticket being a lot harder to locate (“Group Y” out of a listing the continues all the way out to “Group AR”).
• Labor has made the highly unusual decision to place the Liberals ahead of Andrew Wilkie in Denison. It presumably did so in the expectation that its preferences would not be distributed, the weakness of the Liberals in the electorate meaning the final count will most likely be between Wilkie and the Labor candidate, Jane Austin. However, the weekend’s ReachTEL poll of 563 respondents cast at least some doubt on this, showing the Liberal candidate leading Austin 23.1% to 18.0%. Wilkie’s position nonetheless appears strong enough to ensure his re-election regardless of how preferences are directed.
• Labor has entered a preference arrangement with Katter’s Australian Party in Queensland in which the latter will receive the former’s preferences for the Senate ahead of the Greens, in exchange for which the latter will direct preferences to Labor ahead of the Liberal National Party in Hinkler, Herbert, Flynn, Capricornia, Forde and Petrie. This could well entail the high price of having KAP Senate candidate James Blundell elected ahead of the Greens, a prospect that would be pleasing to an incoming Abbott government. As Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports, it has also caused some not unpredictable dissent in the KAP.
what the hell are medicare locals anyways??
Urrggh. Abbott sleazery: check the looks on their faces at 50 secs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xv-QBeurUvc&feature=share&list=UUnrH5FobxzlickepvRKw5Cw
How the media cocked up the costings story today.
FACT: the LNP didnt submit a single policy to PBO. Abbot lied oturight when he claimed they had.
Rudd shuld come out tomorrow and say it: not ONE policy run by PBO. Make the media eat shit.
http://nofibs.com.au/2013/08/29/coalition-10-billion-blackhole-and-media-reports/
No one has provided any evidence that the LNP costings are correct, btw.
Ive just realised somethign about our media: many are not only crooked – a lot of them are also really thick.
Mick77@1249
Yep, you’re an idiot.
I take it you don’t even know where western sydney or the electorate is.
Where do you live?
Are the Libs really going to cut the tax free threshold back to $6,000. While paying Lawyers and Journos $75,000 to have a baby? Really?
[Are the Libs really going to cut the tax free threshold back to $6,000]
No
[While paying Lawyers and Journos $75,000 to have a baby? Really?]
Yes and well paid Janitors
@Sean/1251
http://www.medicarelocals.gov.au/internet/medicarelocals/publishing.nsf/Content/what-is#.Uh9RFj8m2kw
“The Australian Government is investing more than $1.8 billion so Medicare Locals can coordinate and deliver important health services including after-hours GP services, immunisation, mental health support, targeted and tailored services for those in need, and eHealth.”
Plays important roles in our society Sean, something that you liberals don’t seem to understand.
[Are the Libs really going to cut the tax free threshold back to $6,000. While paying Lawyers and Journos $75,000 to have a baby? Really?]
And the low income super contribution.
The ABC: “taken the sting out of”
The SMH: Treasury “deny”, “torpedoed”
The Aus: Treasury “undermined” or “distanced themselves from”
So a range of descriptions. Whether or not Rudd is “dead” because of this and not the many other problems Labor have, is an as yet unanswered question :P.
Henry
[I take it]
That’s all I wanna hear. See you night of 7/9 when Bradbury’s gone and you’re singing my praises. Please stay in tune with lefty.
@Sean/1255
Yes they are.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/abbott-not-gillard-is-the-true-class-warrior-20130428-2imis.html
Lower the tax-free threshold from $18,200 to $6000. This will drag more than one million low-income earners back into the tax system. It will also increase the taxes for 6 million Australians earning less than $80,000.
And sexy rich lawyers for PPL.
And DN
I shall wear whatever cross-dressing outfit I choose.
Zoidlord shirley they can’t be serious. Is this some sort of prank?
Z
For the umpteenth time (maybe not to you)
[Lower the tax-free threshold from $18,200 to $6000]
is rubbish. The effect of the low income rebate (being scrapped by Labor) makes the existing tax-free threshold 16k or so, not 6k.
Sean Tisme@1255
You idiot, it’s their policy.
Gee, really Allan! Would never has guessed your a Labor voter/member.
Anyways, you will be eating humble pie & crying in your beer on election night!
Couldn’t be happier about that!
Also, interesting to see Krudd’s contrite concession speech on the night!
Zoidlord… you are going to have to dumb it down for me a bit more.
Basically what you are saying is that “Medicare Local” are fancy politician spin-speak for bulk billing doctors?
Gee.. thought we already had those…
No – because the right- wing mantra is that to get rich people to something, give then more… but to ‘help’ the poor take their support away.
Mick77@1261
Well nerr nerr to you then! See if I care when you ignore my advice and are mocked on the street!
<mutters to self>
Never gonna give him dress advice again
</mutters to self>
@paaptsef/1263
Yup.
@Mick77/1263
For the umpteenth time(maybe not to you).
Is not rubbish.
The Coalition Party are the ones who want the tax free threshold returned to $6,000.
It was Labor who made it $18,200.
Mick77@1259
What a twit you are.
You really are stupid.
That sort of selective editing floats your boat?
O..k … loser alert.
[Good to see you out and about. Don’t want you disappearing before 7/9. Please leave time to prepare your flowery concession speech to me on both bets. Extra flattery could reduce the amount of scorn I’ll feel obliged to heap on you.]
I wont welch of my committments Mick, they’ll be the least of concerns at that point – but we’re yet to work out whether you;reupto it.
Because Mick: you’re going to lose both bets. LNP wont get more than 52.7 (Rudd’s mark in 07), and the ALP will do better than 60 seats.
Oh and as for ‘flattery’, I might as well break this to you now mate: repeating the evidence of current polling is a bit closer to ‘stating the bleeding obvious’ than compelling evidence of your wondrous powers of insight.
See ya then. Ill be round.
[ And the low income super contribution. ]
bloody hell how do they think they can get away with such pure bastardry
[You idiot, it’s their policy.]
Where can I see their policy of cutting the tax free threshold to $6000?
You are making shit up… a common trait of the Labor voters here
Wesley
[Also, interesting to see Krudd’s contrite concession speech on the night!]
I’ve got the draft here so you can have an exclusive sneak preview:
“I am proud of … blubber blubber, I am proud of …. blubber blubber, I am proud of … blubber blubber .. but I’m not proud of blubbering”
Ummmm…the Coalition want to take the tax free threshold back to $6000.
Sean Tisme@1266
Sean – no, it’s a place that centralises facilities for a range of services that many GPs can’t offer in the one place – it’s actually a bloody good idea.
Sean – no, it’s a place that centralises facilities for a range of services that many GPs can’t offer in the one place – it’s actually a bloody good idea.
paaptsef @1254
1. The tax free threshold is effectively much higher than $6,000 and you know that.
2. If you are in an income band close to that threshold you are already a significant benefactor from the Taxpayer.
3. Only a very small number will be on the maximum and all employed mothers will be much better of under the Coalition Scheme than the current one.
4. Why did it take until the election for the ALP to lift the administrative burden from small business despite advice from the outset?
Z
16k not 6k!
So where is this claim that the Coalition haven’t lodged any policies with the PBO come from. I thought the PBO had already said Coalition policies had been looked at and in the case of NBNLite said they couldn’t cost that within the required timeframe and with existing resources?
@Sean/1266
Does more than just bulk billing though Sean, after hour services including after hour pharmacy’s.
Sorry for double post – the PPL funding mechanism is setting itself up as Abbott’s mining tax.
@Mick77 what latest polling have you seen & where?
Not that it matters, ALP is going to cop a smashing!
Sean Tisme@1273
Hey dipstick it is coalition policy to increase the tax free threshold to $18,000.
Keep up fool.
CC
yes it’s effectively 16k but the ALP trolls here are as thick as Kev’s ego.
@Mick77/1280
It’s $6,000, Labor raised it to $16k.
@davidwh/1281
http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Budget_Office/costings
Coalition NBN will not be costed before the election.
Goodnight
More LNP unhinging to come. Costings costings costings 🙂
In tomorrow’s Australian Wesley. It’s a Newspoll of five seats.
Rudd should come out unapologetically tomorrow and state clearly: The LNP hasnt submitted jack to the PBO.
Because thats a fact. They are fully uncosted.
And then get back to big game: PPL is a dog,
it hurts retirees,
its a GBNT!,
and it doesnt pass the common sense test.
AND Abbott’s just told you all he’s about to slug small business to the tune of $ over instsnt write-downs.
And CUTS risk a RECESSION.
[bloody hell how do they think they can get away with such pure bastardry]
Labor cut Howards Super Co-Contribution from $1500 to $500 and gutted it by fixing the maximum income it phases out at despite incomes of Aussies rising every year.
What bastardry indeed…
Bowen will be a loss to parliament if true. Should have been made treasurer after the promised budget surplus made Swannie damaged goods.
Bradbury – who cares, will always be remembered for the tattoo and the patrol boat stunt.
By the way does anyone know how Graham Perret is tracking ?? Has been pretty quiet after he did not go through with his by-election stunt after the change of leader. One to keep an eye on election night.
Zoidlord we already knew NBNLITE wasn’t being costed.
Sean Tisme@1291
And monkey is slashing the super co contribution by $550 per year.
And the schoolkids bonus.
Give yourself an uppercut.
btw, the current rate is $18,200:
http://ato.gov.au/Rates/Tax-free-threshold-for-individuals/
From 1 July 2012, under the government’s Household Assistance Package, the tax-free threshold increased from $6,000 to $18,200.
@davidwh/1293
They complained about labor’s NBN costs, but yet don’t want their own policy costed, one has to wonder 🙂
the 300 billion that was “wasted or given away” by the Libs in tax cuts to the wealthiest 10% of the population, was it all lost in the GFC stockmarket crash or did some of it manage to trickle down?
Nite all. I go to bed disappointed that betfair is still sitting at ALP $19.50 when it earlier broke through to $21 which is Fran’s level to jump in.
Why isnt Joe Hockey’s wife called Mrs Hockey?
#braindeadRWDBs
Sean Tisme@1291
Idiot.
The stupid libs are cutting the low income super offset to nothing so f off with your nonsense.