Preferential treatment

Some brief insights into the horrid mess caused by our system of mandatory Senate preference dealings.

In a spirit of providing a new post every day during the campaign over and above things like the Senate of the Day entries, today I offer the following scattered assortment of bits-and-pieces relating to contentious preference deals.

• The biggest headline-generator has been the Wikileaks Party, whose most contentious choices have involved a New South Wales ticket which places the Greens behind both the quasi-fascist Australia First and, more consequentially, Shooters & Fishers, and a Western Australian ticket which has the Greens behind the Nationals. Responding to an immediate backlash on social media, the decisions were put down to “administrative errors”, which appeared to involve paperwork being lodged by activists with different ideas about strategy from the party executive. Three of the most noteworthy critics of the arrangement have been Julian Assange’s Senate running mate in Victoria, academic and ethicist Leslie Cannold, who resigned complaining that the party’s democratic processes had been bypassed (albeit that this happened too late to affect her inclusion on the ballot paper); Julian Assange’s mother, Christine Assange, who said that if she lived in Western Australian she would vote for Scott Ludlam of the Greens, who has been the strongest parliamentary supporters of her son’s cause; and Julian Assange himself, who apologised for having “over-delegated” such matters to persons evidently less capable than himself. For all that, the preference arrangements have conferred tactical advantage on the party in some cases, such as in Western Australia where it will be fed preferences from Family First, the Katter and Palmer parties, and a lengthy list of smaller concerns.

• Four parties in Victoria remarkably failed to lodge preference tickets, which among other things offered a potent insight into the closeness of the relationship between them. This was further delved into by Andrew Crook at Crikey, who noted the same personages at work behind the Liberal Democratic Party, Stop the Greens, the Smokers Rights Party and the Republican Party. A source quoted by Christian Kerr of The Australian put the non-lodgement of the tickets down to matters having been “thrown into chaos as it became clear Labor would do a deal with the Greens”. This came as bad news to the Sex Party, which had dealt its way into a national arrangement with the parties concerned that also involved One Nation. To those angered to discover that the party had done Pauline Hanson a good turn in her bid for a New South Wales seat, the party weakly responded that “you have to put these lunatic parties somewhere”, while failing to acknowledge that in Hanson’s case “somewhere” was number 10 out of 110, ahead of Labor, the Coalition and the Greens.

• The complex of preference harvesters and opportunists willing to make deals with them has gifted Pauline Hanson with what occasional psephologist Polly Morgan describes as “an incredibly favourable preference flow”. However, Hanson faces the stumbling block that the Coalition have her placed last, so unlike other parties to the arrangement she does not stand to benefit from the surplus after the election of their third Senator, which in the context of the current election could be substantial. Indeed, Hanson’s candidacy may end up doing the left a good turn, as other right-wing candidates with the potential to be elected with help from Coalition preferences could instead get excluded at an earlier stage of the count by virtue of their failure to overtake Hanson. Should Hanson not poll quite so well as that, there are a range of potential scenarios for a seat to go to a micro-party. The most likely contender could be the Liberal Democrats, who have had a lucky break in being drawn as “Group A” on the enormous Senate ballot paper. Experience suggests this will substantially boost the number of votes they get from those confusing them with the Liberal Party, the Coalition ticket being a lot harder to locate (“Group Y” out of a listing the continues all the way out to “Group AR”).

• Labor has made the highly unusual decision to place the Liberals ahead of Andrew Wilkie in Denison. It presumably did so in the expectation that its preferences would not be distributed, the weakness of the Liberals in the electorate meaning the final count will most likely be between Wilkie and the Labor candidate, Jane Austin. However, the weekend’s ReachTEL poll of 563 respondents cast at least some doubt on this, showing the Liberal candidate leading Austin 23.1% to 18.0%. Wilkie’s position nonetheless appears strong enough to ensure his re-election regardless of how preferences are directed.

• Labor has entered a preference arrangement with Katter’s Australian Party in Queensland in which the latter will receive the former’s preferences for the Senate ahead of the Greens, in exchange for which the latter will direct preferences to Labor ahead of the Liberal National Party in Hinkler, Herbert, Flynn, Capricornia, Forde and Petrie. This could well entail the high price of having KAP Senate candidate James Blundell elected ahead of the Greens, a prospect that would be pleasing to an incoming Abbott government. As Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports, it has also caused some not unpredictable dissent in the KAP.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,340 comments on “Preferential treatment”

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  1. The Liberal trolls are out at this time of night because they have been told that the 18-24 demographic is more likely to be on-line at these times.

    If you had a look at twitter and Facebook they would also be seeing a proliferation of Liberal trolls.

  2. It is entirely plausible that Rudd, Bowen and Wong pushed the line with their remarks, that they pushed the line with getting things costed by the Coalition and still have each of them, and Treasury, be technically correct.

    No, it hardly helps them, but whether or not it’s a big deal depends on how people see it.

    Furthermore, various news organisations explicitly said they had Treasury cost Coalition policies, which is technically incorrect.

  3. OK guys, my sides are hurting so I am going off to bed.

    You can reassure yourselves about how right you are and bemoan the lack of intelligence in Australia and the media.

    If only they could see the world as you see it, eh?

    LOL 🙂 Good night Bludgeroonies! Good night…

  4. ML
    [There is a massive swing against the ALP and we are about to have Prime Minister Tony Abbott
    All of us, including me, just have to get used to that.]
    No worries – used to it already, it’s old news.
    The real “getting used to” fun is gonna be what hits the fan in the ALP ranks. Rudd smashed, maybe lose seat but more fun if he doesn’t; ministers booted; Gillard unable to wipe smile off face; the Rudd haters with “I told you so”; Beattie … now there’s the best capt’s pick for years, followed by Nova who may also disappoint her captain. Dunno about you, but I can’t wait for the weeks after 7 Sept. PB will be the place to be!

  5. OK I don’t think Tony Abbott will wolf whistle at Angela Merkel at the G20. But we will have as PM a man who is an incorrigible liar and thug who does his utmost to create fear and panic I,n the community to further his cause – over boats, over ‘debt & deficit’. He has been talking down the economy for 4 years. He rejected a possible solution to ensure that the boats keep coming. He has held multiple positions on any number of issues, for example Climate Change. And he’s in hock to Rupert Murdoch. The least person to ever become Prime Minister. I respect John Howard but mostly disagree with him. I have no respect for Abbott.

  6. Allan Moyes- you need to get your facts straight!
    I have not personally attacked anyone with my comments, only responding with appropriate force to those who have been to me!!
    You a hypocrite!
    Um trolls??? Is this site especially reversed for the leftist view???
    Feeling a little challenged are we Allan?

  7. DN yep so the rest is at best calculated speculation. Honestly the political debate is completely useless for anyone still making up their minds about voting intentions.

  8. That poll is a blinder! 9% in Western Sydney! That will clean things out. Looks like I was worried for nothing. The diversion tactics aren’t working?

  9. It’s not even close. On the public servant job cuts, the Coalition policy begins 1 year earlier than the ALP one. If you do the maths on that one since it impacts the numbers on the 1st 3 years, it means the ALP policy is understated by nearly 50%.

  10. More from Antony Green. What Ive been saying for years.

    [The current Senate system will be a joke on September 7 and change is required. The clearest solution is a simpler system that allows voters to understand what is happening with their vote, and frees up the result from the control of back room operators.

    Put preferences back in to the hands of voters where they belong, and if this requires the acceptance of some degree of optional preferential voting, better that than magnifying glasses.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-29/green-senate-ballot-system-threatens-more-than-our-eyesight/4921966

  11. peterk:

    The only worry I have is whether I have underestimated the Coalition result with 88!

    The way the ALP folk here try to polish stuff you wonder how the campaigners on the ground are going? Are they trying to do the same thing? Yikes!!!

  12. DN
    [they really have costed Coalition policy]
    I hate to break this to you, but nobody cares. It’s Gillard revisited now for Rudd; This week or last he’s announced a road, a train, a change in super, a change in foreign investment, a new airport, a shift of naval base, $10b black-hole … there’s always gotta be a !0bn black hole identified sonewhere .. yawn. No-one is listening.

  13. 1211 – don’t get too excited – clump polls are highly unreliable – FTR, I’d be saying the same if it were favourable to my side.

  14. THE Coalition was all set to grab the small business vote this election – until it announced a promise to scrap a tax concession the sector really likes.

    Coalition announced it would scrap the tax loss carry-back scheme

    Now please note, this is counted as a saving by the Liberals not a tax increase…weasel words

  15. [ Bowen and Bradbury – bye bye! ]
    thought you said Cadbury for a sec there. But no they are doing peachy keen. it’s goodbye Holden

  16. DN
    [Mick, this is the place for arguing about things no-one cares about 😛 .]
    Good – I’ve come to the right place; now about those jackets that Gillard used to wear …

  17. Z
    [According to voters, Economy is the most important issue, so I think you are abit of a stretch there.]
    According to what I’m seeing, hearing, reading the most important issue is seeing the back of the ALP, oh and “World Peace” of course.

  18. Anyway, lets get some ads on abut ABbott’s GREAT BIG NEW TAX on big business, and other GREAT BIG NEW TAXES on small business, in the form of lost write-offs.

    See how that travels.

    PPL: it doesnt pass the common sense test”: NIce sloganfrom Rooty Hill debate.

    Come on! Abbott is a very weak LNP candidate, worst since McMahon, only in game because of ALPs 3 long years of leadershit – he can be pegged back a LONG way yet…

  19. There was/is apparently a Wangaratta forum on in Indi.

    I really do hope for the residents of Indi that their seat becomes marginal, even better if the sitting member is turfed out this time.

  20. Z
    [How’s Turnbull these days? I heard he doesn’t talk about his own policy of #fraudband.]
    Again – nobody cares. They’re counting the days.

  21. Oh Z @ 1238
    [World peace never comes when Coalition/liberals are in charge.]
    Do I have to explain all my jokes to you (refer Sandra Bullock, Miss Congeniality)

  22. oOo Yes… I was excited about Rudd losing his seat but I think Mick is right.

    Why let the fun and games of the Labor circus end on election night… let Rudd retain his seat and let the show go on!!

    Rudd will demand to remain leader. Bill Shorten will want his job. It’s gonna Labor Party Shitfight Mark 3… LOVE IT!

  23. New2This – we get it you’re a happy LNP soldier in your blue t-shirt or polo shirt … It’ll just be a terrible time to be anyone else.

    I was a Liberal voter/party member until they decided to turn into the Republicans

  24. lefty e
    Good to see you out and about. Don’t want you disappearing before 7/9. Please leave time to prepare your flowery concession speech to me on both bets. Extra flattery could reduce the amount of scorn I’ll feel obliged to heap on you.

  25. Medicare locals,.. last night Abbott (admittedly in rabbit caught in spotlight mode) said they wouldn’t be touched but today they are going to be cut again, is that true?

  26. Henry @ 1246
    [I take it you haven’t met his opponent.
    I have.
    He’s safe.]
    I reckon you are just about stupid enough to publicly bet with me on Bradbury’s survival. If so please turn up on the night of 7/9 to join lefty in a few posts of “we are not worthy Mick”. You up for it? And last time I looked his opponent even had more sex appeal than Bradbury.

  27. @paaptsef/1248

    Yes.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/tony-abbott-says-he-will-review-medicare-locals-20130829-2ss3l.html

    “”I don’t guarantee that they’re all going to stay exactly the same. Our focus is on trying to move the money from the back office to front-line services. And I am confident that Medicare Locals will flourish provided that they are focused on front-line health services and not simply on more health bureaucracy as part of the government, which has now added some 18 federal bodies, apart from the Medicare Local, to look after health.””

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