Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

The weekly campaign Newspoll at least partly corroborates the Coalition swing indicated in all those marginal seat automated polls.

After a steady drip of Newspoll chatter over the past two hours, GhostWhoVotes finally reports the headline figure: 54-46 to the Coalition. The primary votes are 34% for Labor (down one), 47% for the Coalition (up one) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Tony Abbott has now comfortably surpassed Kevin Rudd on net approval, his approval rating up three to 41% and disapproval down one to 51%, while Kevin Rudd is down three to 35% and up two to 54%. Rudd however maintains a 43-41 on the head-to-head preferred prime minister rating, down from 46-37. A question on best party to manage the economy has both parties down three points, Labor to 33% and Liberal to 45%.

UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll. This one records only slight shifts on last week, but last week was Labor’s worst result yet in this evidently Labor-leaning series since Kevin Rudd’s return, and the movements this time, slight as they may be, are in the Coalition’s favour. Labor is steady on the primary vote at 36.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 44.5% and the Greens down one to 9.5%. Distributing preferences as per the previous election, the Coalition lead widens slightly from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent allocated preferences, it’s out from 50-50 to 51-49 in the Coalition’s favour. State breakdowns are available at the above link.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research bucks the trend in having Labor at 50-50, up from 51-49 a week ago. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, Labor to 40% and the Coalition to 44%, with the Greens steady on 8% and others down two to 8%. There is also a question on most trusted media outlets for election coverage, which as usual shows public broadcasters far more trusted than commercial ones, and papers which had traditionally been broadsheets more trusted than tabloids. Four times as many respondents (28%) had “no trust at all” in the Daily Telegraph as “a lot of trust” (7%). The Australian, recently heard hectoring the ABC for being too biased to be trusted as a host of leaders’ debates, scored well below the Fairfax papers. Also featured are results on firmness of voting intention and party and leader attributes, which you can read all about here.

UPDATE 3: Now newcomer automated pollster Lonergan makes its first entry in the national polling stakes (UPDATE: Not quite – turns out they did one just after Rudd’s return), and it’s about in the middle of the overall trend at present in having the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition leads 44% to 35%. Lenore Taylor of The Guardian provides the following further detail:

It found Labor’s primary vote in Queensland was 34% compared with the Coalition’s 50%. In NSW, Labor’s primary vote trailed 33% to 47% and in Victoria 32% to 44%.

It also found the Coalition’s lead was bigger with men (46% of the primary vote compared with 35% for Labor) than women (42% to 34%).

The only age bracket in which Labor was in the lead was 18- to 24-year-olds, where it attracted 42% of the primary vote compared with 37% for the Coalition. The Coalition was slightly ahead among 25- to 34-year-olds (39% to 34%) but strongly ahead among 35- to 49-year-olds (44% to 33%) 50 to 64-year-olds (44% to 38%) and the over-65s, where the Coalition leads 53% to Labor’s 30%.

UPDATE 4: And now AMR Research, an online pollster which has published two previous federal voting intention results that were broadly in line with the national trend, echoes the methodologically similar Essential Research in finding a result of 50-50. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, 41% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. There are also a series of head-to-head responses comparing Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott on various attitudinal measures. The poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday from a sample of 1134.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,764 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 31 of 36
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  7. Diogenes Housing is a necessity and has been completely ignored this election. Affordability is a serious problem in Sydney and something needs to be done to address it.

    Of course lots of building is going on, but the housing is unaffordable except for investors.

  13. [Mr Denmore ‏@MrDenmore 2m
    Come on Australia. The Coalition are clueless. They are making it up as they go along. It is scaremongering economic illiteracy. #qanda]

  14. Why does Hockey know more about how much those stimulus cheques cost than he does his party’s own signature PPL policy?

  23. Bowen is being completely destroyed by hockey. When a liberals can get more cheers on qa the. An alp and all Bowen has is lies. You know you are losing

  29. [dovif
    Posted Monday, August 19, 2013 at 10:03 pm | PERMALINK
    Bowen is being completely destroyed by hockey. When a liberals can get more cheers on qa the. An alp and all Bowen has is lies. You know you are losing]

    LIES!….

  32. [Andrew Leigh ‏@ALeighMP 2m
    Opposition’s costings problem arises from 3 years of saying yes to every special interest, and no to every sensible saving measure. #QandA]

  33. No cheers for Bowen again. Clear sign he is being destroyed. Hockey gets cheers again. An alp member getting destroyed by the audience of qa. Horrible

  34. confessions @ 1467: “Have Labor taken up my suggestion from the other day of stacking debate audiences with their own happy clappers?”

    What a sad commentary on the hopelessness of modern politicians, that they should want to stack audiences with supporters. I remember talking in the past with old school politicians from both sides, and an audience full of supporters was the one thing they dreaded. They wanted interjectors from the other side there, to spice things up. No wonder political discourse is so boring these days.

  48. so I think I’ve got it now….when posters on PB say Hockey is being destroyed by Bowen and it’s a sad bloodbath for the coalition that’s code for oly shit Bowen is being done like a dinner?
    Right?

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