Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

The weekly campaign Newspoll at least partly corroborates the Coalition swing indicated in all those marginal seat automated polls.

After a steady drip of Newspoll chatter over the past two hours, GhostWhoVotes finally reports the headline figure: 54-46 to the Coalition. The primary votes are 34% for Labor (down one), 47% for the Coalition (up one) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Tony Abbott has now comfortably surpassed Kevin Rudd on net approval, his approval rating up three to 41% and disapproval down one to 51%, while Kevin Rudd is down three to 35% and up two to 54%. Rudd however maintains a 43-41 on the head-to-head preferred prime minister rating, down from 46-37. A question on best party to manage the economy has both parties down three points, Labor to 33% and Liberal to 45%.

UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll. This one records only slight shifts on last week, but last week was Labor’s worst result yet in this evidently Labor-leaning series since Kevin Rudd’s return, and the movements this time, slight as they may be, are in the Coalition’s favour. Labor is steady on the primary vote at 36.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 44.5% and the Greens down one to 9.5%. Distributing preferences as per the previous election, the Coalition lead widens slightly from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent allocated preferences, it’s out from 50-50 to 51-49 in the Coalition’s favour. State breakdowns are available at the above link.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research bucks the trend in having Labor at 50-50, up from 51-49 a week ago. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, Labor to 40% and the Coalition to 44%, with the Greens steady on 8% and others down two to 8%. There is also a question on most trusted media outlets for election coverage, which as usual shows public broadcasters far more trusted than commercial ones, and papers which had traditionally been broadsheets more trusted than tabloids. Four times as many respondents (28%) had “no trust at all” in the Daily Telegraph as “a lot of trust” (7%). The Australian, recently heard hectoring the ABC for being too biased to be trusted as a host of leaders’ debates, scored well below the Fairfax papers. Also featured are results on firmness of voting intention and party and leader attributes, which you can read all about here.

UPDATE 3: Now newcomer automated pollster Lonergan makes its first entry in the national polling stakes (UPDATE: Not quite – turns out they did one just after Rudd’s return), and it’s about in the middle of the overall trend at present in having the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition leads 44% to 35%. Lenore Taylor of The Guardian provides the following further detail:

It found Labor’s primary vote in Queensland was 34% compared with the Coalition’s 50%. In NSW, Labor’s primary vote trailed 33% to 47% and in Victoria 32% to 44%.

It also found the Coalition’s lead was bigger with men (46% of the primary vote compared with 35% for Labor) than women (42% to 34%).

The only age bracket in which Labor was in the lead was 18- to 24-year-olds, where it attracted 42% of the primary vote compared with 37% for the Coalition. The Coalition was slightly ahead among 25- to 34-year-olds (39% to 34%) but strongly ahead among 35- to 49-year-olds (44% to 33%) 50 to 64-year-olds (44% to 38%) and the over-65s, where the Coalition leads 53% to Labor’s 30%.

UPDATE 4: And now AMR Research, an online pollster which has published two previous federal voting intention results that were broadly in line with the national trend, echoes the methodologically similar Essential Research in finding a result of 50-50. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, 41% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. There are also a series of head-to-head responses comparing Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott on various attitudinal measures. The poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday from a sample of 1134.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,764 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 29 of 36
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  1. Dio

    tsk, tsk, some balance please:

    If your daughter had any wisdom she would be saying:

    The last time the Liberal Party should have thrown a prime minister out, Howard, it did not; and this time the Liberal Party should have thrown the LOTO out, and it did not.

  2. [Just in relation to your Wakefield assessment Mumble reckons SA will be the biggest swing state to the coalition this year.]

    Yes, Mumble’s been saying that for months. I agree there will be some sharp swings but I believe it will still be difficult to overcome the margins of most Labor candidates.

  4. Dio

    ‘She really didn’t seem convinced it was a good idea.’

    There was a bit of talk around that Rudd didn’t bother checking with Cabinet to see what they thought of this policy.

    Had he done so they would have nixed it.

    Wong may well be regretting that she was one of the decent people who thought that you could put lipstick on a pig.

  6. Carey M:

    I was surprised because I was under the impression Tasmania would be the state that swings hardest to the coalition.

  7. Boerwar

    Posted Monday, August 19, 2013 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

    Dio

    ‘She really didn’t seem convinced it was a good idea.’

    There was a bit of talk around that Rudd didn’t bother checking with Cabinet to see what they thought of this policy.
    ——————————————————

    Abbott and Rudd seem more and more alike.

    Abbott didn’t take PPL to the Party, his front bench or caucus

  8. it is going to be interesting to see how many women in small suddenly get pay rises to 150k just before going on maternity leave. this is going to be rorted big time.

  11. #1407

    Nor did he have any discussion with the business community to look at any complications/opposition etc

    What was it he accused Labor about when they didn’t discuss something with business???

  12. [I was surprised because I was under the impression Tasmania would be the state that swings hardest to the coalition.]

    The weird thing about SA is that, despite there being a string of bad economic news, the anger against Labor is not that loud. I mean, there’s a swing against them and the mood is the government is gone, but there isn’t that hostile desperation to get rid of them as there have been in other states with similarly dire situations for the ALP. While there will be pain here, I’m not sure it’s going to be the blowout some are predicting. At least not federally.

  16. Carey

    We haven’t bad the blatant lies or the corruption other states have had. And Weatherill is impossible to hate (unless you are in the Labor Right).

  17. “@tribalscientist: I pity the intern who will have to trawl through #askbolt in the morning in search of a single serious question.”

  18. Hola everyone

    Leaving on a jet plane . . . this time tomorrow night.

    Leaving all this angst about Labor behind. Europa here we come.

    Looks like half yhe Labor vote is expat. But do we have to suffer such ennui?

    No way. We’re gonna enjoy.

    Sayonnara amigos.

    Keep those chins up.

    PS Aunty Kezza says gedday. And will join you on Septembre 7.

  21. Abbott took to saying that Rudd was telling ‘lies’ today. I think he was trying to be positive about it, but I am not sure.

  23. Three LOTO since 2007
    Nelson
    Turnbull
    Abbott

    And still the Institute of Public Affairs states that;

    Tony Abbott take his inspiration from Australia’s most left-wing prime minister – Gough Whitlam.

    They couldn’t find a Liberal PM worthy to emulate

  25. [We haven’t bad the blatant lies or the corruption other states have had. And Weatherill is impossible to hate (unless you are in the Labor Right).]

    I’d agree on people in the hard right (Farrell, Snelling, Kout, Kenyon etc.) people in the soft right, especially staffers actually think he’s not that bad and he’s the right kind of leader for a state that’s blooming. Shame he was tacked on at the end of a decade long government (it probably would’ve been better to let Rau take the ship down at the next election and then get Weatherill to take over as OL but I guess that would’ve been too much for the factional machine.

  26. To give an indication of how woeful the Labor campaign is, today (or maybe it came yesterday) I received an email from George Wright. It was wondering where the shadow ministers were, notably Dutton, Abetz and a couple of others.

    What an absolute waste of time! Like Facebook posts, I want email content I can share with friends and family that they would be interested in. Not self indulgent, insider nonsense that is totally irrelevant to them!

    I didn’t bother finishing to read the email and just deleted it.

  28. Of course I could be wrong about SA’s outlook federally but right now, I am seeing Hindmarsh fall, Adelaide either barely falling or barely retained and Makin in serious trouble. I think Wakefield will be a retain and Kingston will see a massive swing and return to its marginal status but will still be a retain. Port Adelaide, of course, will be a definite retain. As will the 5 Lib seats.

    What will be working in everybody’s favour is that SA MPs know that being locally popular can give them a really strong edge and they can get home in close races based on their personal popularity.

  30. [To give an indication of how woeful the Labor campaign is, today (or maybe it came yesterday) I received an email from George Wright. It was wondering where the shadow ministers were, notably Dutton, Abetz and a couple of others.

    What an absolute waste of time! Like Facebook posts, I want email content I can share with friends and family that they would be interested in. Not self indulgent, insider nonsense that is totally irrelevant to them!

    I didn’t bother finishing to read the email and just deleted it.]

    Yet you bothered to share it with us. Rudd is doing far better than Gillard was ever doing who would have led the ALP to between 30-40 seats in the house. you are clearly still struggling to get over the departure of Gillard.

  33. Can the Rudd fanboys please stop resorting to the “Gillard would’ve done worse!” kneejerk reaction. The fact is this campaign is going terribly and to try and bat it away with speculation that it would be worse under Gillard is, frankly, woefully pathetic and demonstrative that you really are intolerant of any criticism towards Rudd.

  35. Things are going real good in England. This was posted by a friend

    what is it with the Royal mail in England….I pay money to buy presents, then I pay through the nose to post them to my mum in England and then Royal mail want more money from my mum to get the presents….robbing bastards….they have already got nearly one hundred pounds out of her for presents that I have already sent and now they want another 20 pounds to pick up her birthday present….well they are getting no more money from her….they have said that if she doesn’t pick it up in a certain time frame then they will return it to the sender, so I guess I will be getting it back, at their expense….

  37. [you are clearly still struggling to get over the departure of Gillard.]

    Oh I’m well over Labor’s self indulgent machinations, as I expect are most voters.

  38. Diogenes

    Posted Monday, August 19, 2013 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

    Who would have thought we have 2.3 million registered guns in Australia.
    —————————————————–

    plus all the illegal imported guns

    plus all the guns that buried in people’s backyards during Howard ‘buy back’.

  39. [Can the Rudd fanboys please stop resorting to the “Gillard would’ve done worse!” kneejerk reaction.]

    Nothing knee jerk just fact. If Gillard was still in the chair you would be staring at 60/40 in all likelihood with zero scrutiny on Abbott and probably a skeleton campaign team because everyone would have realised they were on the losing team from the start. Atleast Rudd has injected some competition in this campaign which only matters in last 10 days which we have yet to enter.

  40. Just weighed my luggage for the 53rd time

    Only 19.2 kgs
    Can still fit in another 750g of Milo!!

    Ah mah gawd.

    And that’s after a couple of jars of vegemite

    Do you reckon a couple of tins showing up in the luggage is enough to get me pulled aside?

    As in two 750g milo + 2 jars vegemite = bomb.

    How do they tell?

  41. Question: On what date would Krudd cease to be Caretaker Prime Minister and Mr Abbott be officially sworn in?

  44. aaronkirk

    Bowen v Hockey

    Eff me, the big Dope is game – maybe Tony Jones will get man of the match for the Libs.

    Hockey wouldn’t be going on it on his own 😯

    Wait and see how Jones helps Hockey 😎

  45. IMO there will be some corrections to the margins in Adelaide based seat where Labor’s vote had been inflated during the 2007 and 2010 elections.

    However in terms of net seats IMO the status quo would remain and I predict that no seats will change in SA

  47. Lady Miranda Ann Caulfeild Ackermann-Boltt

    Posted Monday, August 19, 2013 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    Question: On what date would Krudd cease to be Caretaker Prime Minister and Mr Abbott be officially sworn in?
    —————————————————

    twelfth of never

  48. [Nothing knee jerk just fact.]

    No, there is one fact here: Rudd is the current leader.

    Right now the campaign is being run extremely poorly and, despite the adoration here, he is doing some pretty dumb stuff.

    I don’t care about what Gillard would’ve done or how she would’ve fared. What I care about is here and now, that is the reality, end of story. It’s just pathetic scapegoating when you try to deflect into hypotheticals.

  49. Qanda is having a Bowen v Hockey debate tonight.

    Abbott’s PPL has been copping a bit of flack in the media today, so hopefully Bowen can exploit that.

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