As talk firms of a September 7 election, we review another two seats which might form part of a hypothetical Labor majority, being conservative marginals in the relatively promising states of Western Australia and Queensland.
Swan (Liberal 2.5%)
The perennially tight marginal seat of Swan covers areas of inner Perth bounded to the north by the Swan River and the west and south by the Canning River. It extends from South Perth and Como north-eastwards through Victoria Park to Belmont, and south-eastwards through Bentley to Cannington. There is a division in the electorate between the affluent and Liberal-voting west and lower-income Labor-voting east, reflected in the corresponding state seats of South Perth and Victoria Park which are respectively safe for Liberal and Labor. The combination of the two areas has left the federal electorate finely poised, being decided by margins of 164 votes in 2007, 104 votes in 2004 and 294 votes in 1993.
Swan in its present form is unrecognisable as the seat that was created at federation, which covered the state’s non-metropolitan south-west. The seat’s inaugural member was John Forrest, explorer, colonial Premier, federation founding father and senior minister in early non-Labor governnments. The electorate was drawn into the metropolitan area when parliament was enlarged in 1949, at which point it continued to cover the eastern suburbs as far north as Midland. Labor only intermittently held the seat until 1969 when it was won by Adrian Bennett, who retained it until his defeat in 1975 by John Martyr.
Swan returned to the Labor fold in 1980 with the election of 32-year-old Kim Beazley Jr, future party leader and son of the Whitlam government Education Minister and long-serving Fremantle MP Kim Beazley Sr. Beazley strengthened his hold on the seat with consecutive swings of 8.1% and 8.6% in 1980 and 1983, but the expansion of parliament in 1984 cut his margin by 4.1% by transferring inner eastern suburbs around Bassendean to Perth. A sharp swing at the 1990 election further pared back Beazley’s margin, and he began to cast around for a safer seat after surviving the 1993 election by 294 votes. A safety hatch opened when Wendy Fatin retired in the somewhat safer seat of Brand along Perth’s coastal southern suburbs at the 1996 election, which Beazley was nonetheless able to retain by just 387 votes.
Swan meanwhile fell to Liberal candidate Don Randall, who was tipped out by a 6.4% swing in 1998 before returning at the 2001 election in his present capacity as member for Canning. The new Labor member for Swan was former farmer and prison officer Kim Wilkie, who barely survived a poor performance by Labor in Perth at the 2004 election despite a disastrous campaign for his Liberal opponent Andrew Murfin. A correction after the Liberals’ under-performance in 2004 presumably explains the seat bucking the trend of the 2007 election, at which the seat was one of only two in the country to fall to the Liberals, the other being the northern Perth seat of Cowan.
The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Steve Irons, a former WA league footballer and proprietor of an air-conditioning business. Irons’ tiny margin was erased by a 0.4% redistribution shift ahead of the 2010 election, but he retained the seat with a 2.8% swing that was closely in line with the statewide result. Labor’s candidate is John Bissett, deputy mayor of the Town of Victoria Park.
Dawson (Liberal National 2.4%)
Extending along the central Queensland coast from Mackay northwards through the Whitsunday Islands, Bowen and Ayr to southern Townsville, Dawson has had a wild ride after the past two elections, firstly falling to Labor with an epic swing of 13.2% in 2007 before returning to the conservative fold in 2010. The swing on the latter occasion was 5.0%, approximately in line with the statewide result, which rose to double figures in the Whitsunday region booths around Airlie Beach and Proserpine. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, and has consistently been centred on the sugar capital of Mackay. While Mackay has consistently been an area of strength for Labor, the surrounding rural territory has tended to keep the seat in the conservative fold. The only Labor member prior to 2007 was Whitlam government minister Rex Patterson, who won the seat at a by-election in February 1967 and kept a tenuous hold until his defeat in 1975.
The Nationals retained the seat throughout the Hawke-Keating years, despite close calls in 1983 (1.2%) and 1990 (0.1%, or 181 votes). De-Anne Kelly succeeded Ray Braithwaite as the party’s member in 1996, become the first woman ever to represent the party in the House of Representatives. The swing that unseated Kelly in 2007 was one of three double-digit swings to Labor in Queensland at that election, and the only one to strike a sitting member. Labor’s unxpected victor was James Bidgood, a former Mackay councillor noted for linking the global financial crisis to biblical prophecy. Bidgood bowed out after a single term citing health problems, and was succeeded as Labor’s candidate by Whitsunday mayor Mike Brunker. Brunker however proved unable to hold back a statewide tide at the 2010 election which almost entirely undid the party’s gains of 2007.
Dawson has since been held by George Christensen, a former Mackay councillor and local newspaper publisher who sits in parliament with the Nationals. Christensen suffered an embarrassment during the 2010 campaign with the emergence of newsletters he had written as a university student containing what Tony Abbott conceded were “colourful” views on Jews, gays and women. He has more recently been noted for his hostility to Islamic radicalism, having been the only federal MP to attend rallies held in Australia by controversial Dutch politician Geert Wilders. His Labor opponent for the coming election is Bronwyn Taha, a former Proserpine restaurant owner and electorate officer to state Whitsunday MP Jan Jarratt.
Well it may appear that that reachtel poll is close to the mark.
Rudd has conceded today that, like I said last night, if the election were held yesterday Abbott would win it for Rupert Murdoch.
So there you go!
The Reachtel and the Newspoll this weekend will have mostly (if not all) have been taken before news of the election announcement reached the majority of voters.
Let’s see what next weekend’s polling shows.
Mod Lib
Katter will direct prefs to Kevin Rudd in Qld.
Cranky you fooled me your comments are getting quite panicky never mind it will soon be over and you will be able to retire under your rock again 😀
[This Election is going to go down to whether Abbott looks PM material]
It’s got nothing to do with that. People know he’s not vintage PM material already.
This election will go down to whether Rudd’s popularity overrides a general perception of economic mismanagement.
Laughatnane wants the second debate to be another stage managed Rooty Hill debacle.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/157988238/Brian-Loughnane-to-George-Wright
hawker @brucehawker2010 2h
Tony Abbott just refused to agree to a debate with Kevin Rudd tomorrow night, despite saying he’d debate PM when an election was called.
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on these grounds alone abbott should Never be pm
what a coward,, how can this man ever face situations of great worry in the country if he cannot think on his feet
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[Who said the election was unlosable for the Coalition?
I’ve always believed the truism that Oppositions do not win elections – Governments lose them.]
As I suspected the nerves are kicking in. Abbott will choke at the last gasp. he would know as Hewson key adviser.
So the last few polls (Coalition TPP):
Reachtel 52.5 (by my calculations)
Morgan 49.5
Essential 51.0
Newspoll 52.0
…tomorrow’s 3 polls will be very interesting!
The only positive about the Reachtel is that Abbott is more preferred PM.
Well, we know that’s crap!
Looking at it the Liberals have presuming that they win Fisher, Lyne, New England in effect 75 seats whilst the ALP are on something like 71 seats.
At this stage i cannot see where the ALP will gain five or six seats.
[ruawake
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 7:29 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib
Katter will direct prefs to Kevin Rudd in Qld.]
Is that official or your opinion? I know Kat likes Kev, but is he really sending prefs that way?
How many on here have actually worked on election campaigns?
You will see polls waxing and waning for the first couple of weeks before you get an idea of how things are going.
Go out and help you candidate get elected instead of fulminating on here.
I feel we can win this my gut tells me so and my gut is actually better than relying on most early opinion polls.
@Mod Lib
Because we haven’t seen the extent of the cuts made by the Coalition Party.
ML
“So, I take it that you thought Howard looked like a PM when he was LOTO then”
He looked a hell of a lot more compitent than the current LOTO
Senator Penny Wong @SenatorWong 1m
Abbott’s PPL & promised company tax cut now just ‘hopes’. Election called 4hrs ago and Liberals already breaking their word @7NewsMelbourne
=========================================================
can some one like finns keep a list like this
[This election will go down to whether Rudd’s popularity overrides a general perception of economic mismanagement.]
And the perception of dysfunction and a circus.
Watch for Newspoll tonight. They may try to take advantage of the election announcement.
Nielsen next Sunday?
Then we will have a good range of post-Rudd polling.
52/48?
There goes the furniture.
Almost certain Newspoll would hold off until tomorrow night. They will want full ‘election starts’ spreads tomorrow, then Newspoll for Tuesday’s papers.
Nielsen next Sunday?
Next weekend’s polls will be the ones of interest as the dust will have settled to a certain extent.
6 YEARS of Labor management has Australia
Triple A rating from all 3 agencies
Productivity rises every quarter
low official interest rates
low unemployment
low debt to GDP ratio
low inflation
record business investment
one of only 8 countries with direct exchange rate on dollar with China
rated in top 5 performing economies in the world.
third in the world for level of debt reduction
Lets get rid of this and elect the failed priest and his policies that he is too gutless to cost
Today’s Reachtel poll would have included very little effect from the announcement of the election. Remember that many people would have first heard of the election when they listened to the nightly news after the poll was finished.
The Reachtel website indicates the questions made no mention of the election announcement and were standard polling questions:
[ReachTEL conducted a six-question survey of 2,949 residents across Australia during the afternoon of 4th August 2013
Question 1:
If a Federal election were to be held today, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?]
Many people being polled would have had the revised budget announcement of Friday in mind and that news was not necessarily favourable to the government.
In this respect, the upcoming Newspoll will have caught people having much the same thoughts as those polled by Reachtel.
After Windsor and Oakeshott KAP preferencing Labor is very risky strategy assuming KAP polls best in conservative seats.
52/48?
There goes the furniture.
The question is : whose furniture?
this coming Tuesdays Interest rate cut. Not a bad way to kick off an election campaign.
So it’s true monkey won’t debate tomorrow night?
Gutless wonder.
The stage is all yours kev, ram it into the gutless joke.
After Windsor and Oakeshott KAP preferencing Labor is very risky strategy assuming KAP polls best in conservative seats.
I think that Katter is seen as as a loveable maverick so it may not be risky on his part.
[Senator Penny Wong @SenatorWong 1m
Abbott’s PPL & promised company tax cut now just ‘hopes’. Election called 4hrs ago and Liberals already breaking their word @7NewsMelbourne]
So things are $30 Billion worse off now than what you told us in the Budget just weeks ago, and you criticise the Opposition a day later for being cautious about its spending?
Try being a better Finance Minister and keeping control of the nation’s pursestrings instead of sniping!
Haha 🙂
gollum is getting closer to precious but it will fall just out of his grasp.
You know what’s frightening is that I’d never thought that Australia would never vote in a GW Bush 😯
@Mod Lib/2227
So Broken promises already happening.
PPL was suppose to be a key policy for Abbott, and it was suppose to be a ‘must stay’.
@SenatorWong 10m
Abbott’s PPL & promised company tax cut now just ‘hopes’. Election called 4hrs ago and Liberals already breaking their word @7NewsMelbourne
————————————————————-
so there u go paid parental leave policy gone
what does that leave anything
Sadly ML rabbit promised his stupid PPL would be delivered in his first budget regardless of circumstances.
Ouch!
[So things are $30 Billion worse off now than what you told us in the Budget just weeks ago, and you criticise the Opposition a day later for being cautious about its spending?
Try being a better Finance Minister and keeping control of the nation’s pursestrings instead of sniping!
Haha]
No the bigger laugh is the 70bn blackhole the Libs refuse to get costed by the independent office set up by none other than Costello. Abbott is an economic illiterate and that is why he refuses to debate on this. he is a gutless spinless wonder.
Mod Lib
Do you know that treasury was actually less accurate when Howard was PM?
And don’t make me brake my pact not to abuse fellow posters 😐
[So Broken promises already happening.]
How has he broken his promise?
Given the backflipping and re-guessing economic forecasting the ALP has been engaged in over the last month I think its a bit rich to say the Opposition has to instantly release all its policies and costings.
They have only had hours with the new numbers!
The PPL was never going to be introduced because Abbott is not going to increase coy tax.
Told you!
[Centre
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 7:44 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib
Do you know that treasury was actually less accurate when Howard was PM?]
Howard didnt spend every last cent that Treasury said he was going to get.
Rudd-Gillard-Rudd did.
Get it?
Six years.
Pink batts. Dead children house fires.
Grocery watch, fuel watch.
Mining tax debacle.
Failed ETS. Green alliance carbon tax.
Knifed pm. School hall rorts.
Failed NBN rollout. Cost blowout.
AWU scandal. Craig Thomson. Peter slipper.
Pm knifed again.
Boats boats boats. Over a thousand people dead.
Billions blown on asylum seekers.
Png solution 1600 arrive 40 sent. Millions wasted.
Mod Lib
Surely you will admit the L-NP have to come up with some serious budget cuts to fund their promises.
The revenue falls are facts, they will happen whoever is elected. Where do your mob find $69 billion?
Bet you can’t answer the question.
[Get it?]
Howard was lucky.
Get it?
Howard didnt spend every last cent that Treasury said he was going to get.
Rudd-Gillard-Rudd did.
Australia has a triple AAA rating under Rudd-Gillard-Rudd which they never had under Howard or any Coalition Government.
Get it?
Mod Lib, don’t tell me to get it because you don’t.
Treasury makes forecasts. Forecasts with really, really big numbers. Treasury was even less accurate under Howard, but lucky for him on the upside, not downside with Labor.
Howard wasted excess government revenue from the mining boom!
@Mod Lib
They did not have a few hours with the new numbers, they had a week.
If they cannot work with that sort of time frame then they do not deserve to be elected.
If Labor starts the campaign at 48-52 that’s fine, and probably standard.
[Australia has a triple AAA rating under Rudd-Gillard-Rudd which they never had under Howard or any Coalition Government.
Get it?]
And unlike Howard who was governing during boom times the ALP achieved this during an economic downturn.
Howard, like Labor now; spent as to treasury forecast.
Pretty simple really.
Boerwar
If you are in a marginal seat in Victoria you are being very foolish if you don’t vote properly!
New thread.