ReachTEL has published results of an automated phone poll of 2922 respondents across the country which has the Coalition leading 51-49, down from 52-48 in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change, from primary votes of 39.3% for Labor (up 0.5%, 45.4% for the Coalition (up 0.3%) and 8.3% for the Greens (down 0.4%). ReachTEL shows Kevin Rudd with an unusually narrow 52.4-47.6 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, but the knife is nonetheless turned on Abbott by a result on voting intention under a Malcolm Turnbull leadership which has the Coalition lead at 58-42. Turnbull is also favoured 65-35 over Rudd as preferred prime minister.
psephos
Well done and congratulations.
alias
I think Peter O’Neill must be pretty confident of carrying this as well and the inducements are clearly going to be huge both at the National and Manus Provincial levels.
The PNG PM has to sell it to his own people as well. It is extraordinary that a PNG PM would ever agree in the first place and I think we will see further reporting along these lines in the days ahead.
But Australia was probably going to have to spend the same type of money on AS etc in the coming years anyway.
As western countries leave Afghanistan next year, I think there would have/ will be a huge rush by Afghanis to get out.
Briefly.
As I said at top of page.
Just that the selected destination is off the list.
Display Name ! has your Spine Evaporated ?
Man, or Woman Up !
Psephos
Congratulations on your work, and the recognition by those on the ground. I say, with some firsthand knowledge, that the mood for change over there is overwhelming.
Boerwar:
I don’t often agree with your cynical view of the legal fraternity, but on this matter I think you’re spot on.
briefly
‘There is a kind of presumption that refugees may assert rights to settle wherever they like. This is just false.’
Indeed. Not even the judiciary would be stupid enough to hand over a basic element of our sovereignty kit to foreigners.
[Psephos, do they let you into Malaysia these days?]
I may found that out soon. I like Penang.
Dave – Yes, aside from the domestic political implications, and the AS issue itself, this is remarkable indeed in terms of the Oz-PNG relationship. If nothing else is achieved, perhaps it will open eyes across the wider community in Australia as to the difficulties faced by those governing this little understood country to our north.
Psephos:
Well done.
Where did our National Skittles Team end up last night?
Are we at Boof has been booted yet? Are we up to Mickey Arthur, all is forgiven.
Has the team cancer been surgically removed?
Briefly !
…. Yer Spine, He Fine !
[Simultaneous is try is it not?]
Yep, especially as the ref called try. Show pony strikes again.
confessiona
So you think a boat a day is not an issue? I am torn on this issue but see that something has to be done.
There are literally thousands of people waiting for public housing in the country and while they are waiting some of the DOH housing is being used to absorb some of those arriving by boat nearly everyday.
BTW Gillard did not have the skills to do much about any of those issues.
Alias 1990
Yes that is one of the reasons why I have changed my view. As I said earlier today the 1951 Convention really is obsolete. The most persecuted minorities are not the ones who are allowed and can afford to get on a plane to Indonesia for a start. When you think about all the persecuted people in places like North Korea or sub-Saharan Africa that have no chance to get to Indonesia in the first place, the whole current system has become a lottery that is being gamed by many people. It does not have any ethical superiority. We need to do something new, along the lines of the principles I outliners earlier today.
That being said, even if this is a political success for Labor, I take no joy at seeing a lot of people sent to PNG who, while they may not be in fear of their lives, would still like a better one. This highlights the problems caused by the massive differences in standard of living that exist in the world today. The real problem here is inequality, not persecution.
With a more compassionate approach proving unworkable, there is no good (i.e. nobody suffers) solution. We have to chose the policy that causes the least harm. However, we also have to do more to reduce the inequality that causes people to risk the boat trip in the first place.
hoping Gold Coast beat the Pies
Oh, oh. SHY has been reduced to tears.
[1. No regime in Port Moresby will be able to resist the (as yet undisclosed) honey pot that accompanies this deal from Canberra]
which is conveniently counted as increasing Aust foreign aid contribution to a third world country. that is the genius in the plan.
AA
Me too. x fingers that they don’t run out of legs.
briefly:
From memory the High Court also ruled against unaccompanied minors being sent to Malaysia, but I think in the case of PNG the govt has said minors will be processed in Australia?
We will have to wait to see what the lawyers conjure up.
Not sure if the English version of Aljazeera that we see in Australia is the same as the Arabic version seen in the Middle East but boats & PNG figure prominently in the most viewed stories in the “Asia Pacific” section.
[The Australian Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, has said that no more boatpeople will be allowed to resettle in Australia.
Unauthorised arrivals will be sent to poverty-stricken Papua New Guinea, according to a new agreement between the two countries.
“From now on, any asylum seeker who arrives in Australia by boat will have no chance of being settled in Australia as a refugee,” Rudd told reporters on Friday.]
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2013/07/201371974716301126.html
AA:
I nearly tipped Gold Coast too.
izatso, I’m afraid it’s not my spine that requires bolstering.
Well, I will take helping people by stealth over leaving the issue as a political football for gormless hypocrites to scare votes out of spineless jellyfish with weak constitutions :P.
…..Bugger it.
Full Marks, You Lot.
This time.
[Not even the judiciary would be stupid enough to hand over a basic element of our sovereignty kit to foreigners.]
Well, I fear they might, actually. That’s why I think we will probably end up withdrawing from the Convention. I wish Rudd well trying to get it revised, but as with everything in the UN system, there are too many vested interests involved.
We do have a serious problem with the domination of the higher levels of the judiciary (the Federal Court in particular) by left-liberal elitists contemptuous of public opinion (what does it matter what bogans and rednecks think?). I have to admit this is the work mostly (though not entirely) of Labor Attorneys-General appointing their friends and colleagues to the bench.
Socrates.. A thoughtful, insightful post that captures the essence of the issue perfectly.
[Oh, oh. SHY has been reduced to tears.]
“High five!”
[So you think a boat a day is not an issue?]
I think it’s a very big issue.
I think that the hundreds of people who drowned, or presumed drowned is a big issue.
I think the current system being abused by people for their own personal gain is a big issue.
That is why I supported the Malaysia deal and why I support the announcements from yesterday.
[BTW Gillard did not have the skills to do much about any of those issues.]
The announcement yesterday was initiated by the Gillard government, with much of the work done behind the scenes undoubtedly taking place prior to the leadership change.
MTBW@1975
As I have been saying, only one thing to do:
IGNORE THE BORE 👿
[You should explain that to the Greens and those who opposed the Malaysia deal and who now oppose the PNG deal.]
Trying to explain things to the Greens is a futile exercise.
Citizen
Thanks for that Al Jazeera report.
It just reminds me of Rudd’s uncanny ability to drive home a message like this with magnificent simplicity, clarity and bluntness.
You read those words in the Al Jazeera report and there is no doubt what’s going on. None of the argy-bargy over whether “turning back the boats” without Indonesia’s consent is effective.
Rudd has brilliantly managed to take an action that conveys with white-hot blinding clarity that boarding a boat to Australia is a seriously bad idea.
Want citizenship in a hellhole? Go right ahead.
[1923
Centre
The usual maxims just don’t apply to the current situation.
What maxims would they may be?]
I’m not sure whether the usual stuff about incumbents’ advantages will apply, after all, Rudd is not the standard incumbent. He is the new broom you get without an election. And while Labor is in power, they need to win seats to remain in office, so while they should be thought of as the incumbent, they are the underdog in this election.
Meantime, while the LNP may have a long-standing party advantage, they are handicapped by the most disliked LOTO to contest an election in modern times.
All I’m thinking is that it the probabilities in these circumstances are contradictory and therefore difficult to compute. Since I have never placed a wager with a bookie on anything, I’m not accustomed to thinking about these things. It just seems to me “the form” is more than usually hard to read.
[Some bludgers may recall that a few weeks ago I posted an analysis of the rigging of the Malaysian election at my website]
I’ve shared it with a few of my Malaysian friends too, including some who have relatives and friends who are Opposition activists.
Psephos, I wasn’t aware our judiciary were meant to be swayed by public opinion. That’s the role of politicians. If they are swayed enough to conclude that they don’t like what the legal system does, they should change it.
Psephos 2025
While I still claim to be a liberal (though not an elitist), I concede that you raise a valid point there. I recall a discussion I had with a Melbourne based immigration lawyer some years ago who zealously worked to get everyone they could into Australia. I raised the question of what about any adverse consequences from when they get here, and was simply ignored, as though no such possibility existed.
The problem is that many lawyers make their living defending the existing law, not working out what the law should be.
Have a good night all. The Lions are playing Melbourne this weekend, hurray! I am rather less optimistic about the cricket.
gloryconsequence & 1978
[Galaxy tonight for tomorrow’s spreads, or will News Ltd want all the attention on Newspoll?]
I’d say so – Galaxy usually have their results published in the Sunday papers, so we’ll probably hear later tonight.
Newspoll are still in field (a friend of mine was contacted by phone last night by them) until tomorrow, so we might hear about the toplines tomorrow night, more likely Monday night for Tuesday’s Australian newspaper.
As I stated on Thursday in the previous thread (and before the Rudd AS announcements) I was predicting 51% to 49% 2PP to the ALP for one, or both of Galaxy and Newspoll.
August 31st Election Day announcement by the end of the week, in my view.
DN…..
This cunning plan has nuances which shall assuage your shallow fears.
Thanks Alias, night all.
Off to dinner. Paella, made it myself (said modestly).
Socrates, don’t most lawyers work like that? It doesn’t matter if they’re immigration lawyers or corporate or whatever, they push for whatever they can get within the law.
Ah Penang…
Train to Butterworth from Sinkers… shown jail where Barlow and companion were hung recently by drug policeperson. We thank policeperson for tourist information.
Other parents on train explaining that if we go to the Thai border your children are at big risk of being stolen. We thank parents for sharing this useful advice.
Ferry trip in the evening from Butterworth to Penang like some sort of long-lost tropical dream.
Day 1. Corpse, children for the purpose of explaining, floated in to the beach of the resort we were staying at,
Day 2. Ex-pukkah wallah walked through resort with pet otter bounding with joie de vivre at, or around, his heels.
Day 3. Stingers sting our kids providing explanation of why no-one actually swam in the sea. One of the stings turns necrotic…
Day 4. Found sign up creek, pictures to the effect of, enter this space and you will be shot.
Day 5. We hired a taxi for a day to do the round trip around the island. One of the hairiest road experiences ever.
Day 6. Fort Cornwallis, druggies for the shelter of.
Day 7. Kick pregnant monkey in the bot gardens; said preganant monkey getting dangerously close to either clawing or biting children. Feel bad about kicking pregnant monkeys. Memo: never again buy bags of peanuts to feed the monkeys.
Etc, etc. We loved it.
izatso, this plan is about as subtle as my fears are shallow :P.
Agree re: election announcement Big Ship.
Disagree on the polls – I think Labor may have lost a couple on 2PP this week.
We’ll see.
confessions
‘briefly:
From memory the High Court also ruled against unaccompanied minors being sent to Malaysia, but I think in the case of PNG the govt has said minors will be processed in Australia?
We will have to wait to see what the lawyers conjure up.’
Ah, the unaccompanied minor Australian visa Trojan Horse trick.
citizen, yes good get, a very encouraging report that totall gets across, just swooshing over murdochs minions machinations.
HA!
Display name 2040
Yes, that is the problem. But many in this area then assume they have a degree of moral superiority on their side. I am not sure they have good reason to hold that view.
MTBW@1985
Probably because she is usually wRONg. 😛
[2012
izatso?
Briefly !
…. Yer Spine, He Fine !]
Physiologically, all intact izatso? 🙂
Soc
Really enjoy your posts they are very considered.
[2003
crikey whitey
As I said at top of page.
Just that the selected destination is off the list.
2004]
Exactly, cw