Seat of the week: Barton

This week we visit yet another endangered Labor seat in Sydney which the party is unaccustomed to losing.

Barton has covered Kogarah and surrounding areas on the north shore of the Georges River since its creation in 1922, currently extending north through Rockdale to Earlwood and Kingsgrove. Past members for Barton include Herbert “Doc” Evatt, who won the seat from the United Australia Party in 1940 and held it until 1958, when he moved to Hunter after close shaves in 1951 (when World War II hero Nancy Wake, running for the Liberals, came within 243 votes of victory) and 1955 (when Evatt prevailed by 226 votes). The seat nonetheless stayed with Labor until the 1966 disaster, subsequently changing hands along with government in 1975 and 1983. Gary Punch held the seat for generally narrow margins in the 1980s, but put enough fat on the margin in 1993 that his successor Robert McClelland survived the 1996 landslide.

A member of the NSW Right, McClelland held a series of senior portfolios after entering the shadow ministry in 1998 and served as Attorney-General since the election of the Rudd government. McClelland emerged as an important part of the Kevin Rudd camp during Julia Gillard’s prime ministership, an association going back to Rudd’s ascendancy over Kim Beazley in December 2006. An oblique reference by McClelland to the AWU affair in June 2012 was invoked as validating the subsequent blizzard of media interest in the matter, and was generally seen as a deliberate effort to undermine her. He had been dropped from the ministry after Rudd’s failed leadership bid the previous February, which followed two months from his demotion to emergency management and housing.

McClelland announced in January 2013 that he would bow out at the election, causing concern to Labor that the NSW government might seek to precipitate a by-election by offering him a position on the state’s Industrial Relations Commission. Reports in mid-2011 suggested McClelland was being advised to step aside to avoid a preselection stoush. It was thought the seat might provide an entry for former Premier Morris Iemma, who told the media he would not be interested if it involved “backstabbing friends”. The Iemma for Barton idea was again raised in October 2012 by Bob Carr, who speculating on the possibility that McClelland might decide to retire. When that duly came to pass in January 2013, Iemma did not emerge as a starter for the seat, encouraging the conclusion that he was not fancying Labor’s electoral prospects.

Labor will instead take the field with Steve McMahon, chief executive of the NSW Trainers Association (as in thoroughbred horses) and former mayor of Hurstville. McMahon won a local preselection ballot with 128 preselection votes against 101 for Shane O’Brien, Rockdale mayor and NSW Public Service Association assistant secretary, a former adviser to Tony Burke. McMahon reportedly had backing from Morris Iemma and state upper house MP Shaoquett Moselmane, key to votes from the Lebanese Muslim community, leading O’Brien to complain that his own support had come instead from “free-thinking individuals”. O’Brien’s opponents accused him of being a sore loser who had himself had courted the Macedonian and Greek vote. Moselmane had himself been a nominee early in the process but he quickly withdrew, amid suggestions he was merely seeking leverage to shore up his position on the upper house ticket.

The Liberal candidate is Nick Varvaris, accountant and mayor of Kogarah.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,124 comments on “Seat of the week: Barton”

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  1. Fran Barlow..952 and Meher Baba…
    I have to disagree with you both, for I believe Privatisation has NO PLACE in ANY human enterprise that involves possible detrimental or unequal representation in a socialy delivered service…ie; Education, essential utilities, social services, health.
    Those enterprises that involve entrepreneurial speculation, sure..with conditions.
    The unlimited and unsuprising deviousness of human ingenuity to corrupt, extort, blackmail and destroy any and all civilised institutions, demands rigorous govt’ oversight.
    In fact, to be honest, I wouldn’t allow the entrepreneurial middle-class anyway NEAR the human services sector.

  2. Gorgeous Dunny.

    No worries.

    CTar1 and DisplayName,

    Yes, I don’t regret trying. I can even point to some successes from my papers (e.g., differential indexation, a weighting towards loadings), but the biggest issue was the continuation of the SES model. Of course, the systemic school authorities have enough political power to stop it in its tracks or at least deliver a serious wound to it. They were conned by the Howard government’s “no losers” guarantee last time. They may be conned again.

    The “no attribution to the author” is true. I learnt years ago that you can do something in full public view and nobody notices. I’ll share an example with you because I can:

    Union ire at pupil-free debate
    Bridie Smith, The Age, April 24, 2008

    PLANS to make Victorian teachers the best paid in the nation collapsed yesterday after Education Minister Bronwyn Pike angered the education union by insisting pupil-free training days would “have to go”….

    Ms Pike yesterday said the Government was willing to offer a wage increase in excess of 3.25% a year if teachers gave up three pupil-free curriculum days as part of a bid to boost productivity.

    “They are inconvenient for the parents and they rob children of three extra days of teaching time,” she told ABC radio. “Teachers need to engage in shared professional development before the students come back to school.” …

    (http://www.theage.com.au/news/education-news/trainingday-view-riles-teacher-union/2008/04/23/1208743040359.html)

    It is teachers who have been robbed
    The Age, 26/4/2008

    ACCUSING teachers of being greedy (Letters, 25/4) is like accusing the victims of a burglary of being greedy because they demand back what was stolen from them and insist that they do not have to hand over something else in return.

    Teachers have had their pay cut, relatively speaking, by $28,788 since 1979. They have had the staffing of the average secondary school cut by five teachers since then. They have had permanent employment stolen and replaced by short-term contracts. They have had their teaching loads increased, the pool of deductions from teaching loads for leadership positions abolished, and their professional say reduced.

    If the sticking point in this dispute is teaching time, then the Government and the union should agree to undo the 12-minute cut made to the secondary teaching day in 1991. This would add eight days of teaching time in a year, whereas taking away pupil-free days would add only three. Restoring the length of the school day is Labor Party policy. Cutting pupil-free days is not.

    (http://www.theage.com.au/news/letters/respect-my-view-but-not-my-enemys/2008/04/25/1208743241654.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1)

    Teachers win new agreement for work trade-offs
    Nick Higginbottom, John Ferguson and Jane Metlikovec, Herald Sun, May 06, 2008 12:00am
    TEACHERS were handed pay rises of up to $10,000 yesterday in a windfall deal that will cost well over $2 billion.…

    Secondary teachers will work an extra 10 minutes each day — adding up to an extra six days of tuition each year.

    Ad-hoc scheduling of three pupil-free days a year will be replaced with three statewide planning and professional development days before the start of the school year….

    (http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23651604-2862,00.html)

    Teachers did not have to work one minute a day extra and they did not lose any pupil-free days. All that happened was that the minimum instructional day was restored to the 300 minutes it had been in 1990. Not one article I read after the settlement ever referred to my letter.

    So, I keep going, and I advise everyone to do the same – unless they’re wrong of course. Then they should give up and let me have my way!!

  3. jv

    How are universities educating elites, given there is no longer a cap on enrolments?

    Or would you rather the Liberal’s plan to cut enrolments by 200,000 to return the value of degrees?

  4. ruawake

    It’s the political strategy to take advantage of the public perception that mumble is pointing to.

  5. ru

    [How are universities educating elites, given there is no longer a cap on enrolments? ]

    Depends what you mean by elite. Intellectual elite would fit with university.

  6. I have a uni degree and I am certainly not an Intellectual Elite.

    I guess a degree in electronics is not really that intellectual. 😆

  7. [1005
    jaundiced view

    ruawake

    It’s the political strategy to take advantage of the public perception that mumble is pointing to.]

    http://www.budget.gov.au/2007-08/fbo/html/02_part1-03.htm
    http://www.budget.gov.au/2011-12/content/fbo/html/part_1.htm

    Commonwealth Government Spending on Education (Final Outcomes)

    2007/8 = $ 18.433 billion
    2011/12 = $ 29.050 billion

    All that money is purely in order to take “advantage of public perception”?

    That is absolutely risible.

  8. Lizzie

    As reported by fairfax

    [For a fearful moment, Australia was in danger of losing its First Bloke.
    Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s partner Tim Mathieson had just led a swarm of almost 30 motorcyclists from Sydney’s Kirribilli House to Canberra when, only a few kilometres from The Lodge, his motorbike hit a round-about too fast, scraped a footpeg, hit the kerb and flew into the air.]

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/first-bloke-survives-motorbike-tumble-20130414-2htj6.html#ixzz2QQNm0dfR

  9. I’m suprised William has not put up the Galaxy Poll today as a post. Perhaps he is either away, or waiting for any Nielsen to turn up tomorrow (I’ve no idea if will or not). The Galaxy was the full poll, even though they buried the TPP etc underneath that Super question.

  10. BK

    [WHo would listen to any word this creep would utter on governance?]

    You beat me to it! He should look in the mirror before preaching to others.

  11. The Galaxy poll showing an improvement to ALP of 46/54 has sunk without a trace in the #newscorpse organs.

    Has anyone seen the tables for this one?

  12. [Your irrational hatred of all things George Pell reveals your inner Wally.]

    GG, I think you need to accept that it is not irrational to have a deep dislike of George Pell. This has nothing to do with his (or your) religious beliefs as such. It’s to do with his complete lack of leadership in dealing with the repeated sex-abuse scandals among Catholic clergy, as well as his refusal to inform himself of the facts about climate change before he sounds off about it in public. Whatever his spiritual qualities may be, I think his lamentable performance debating Dawkins shows he is an inferior intellect and not up to the job he faces in dealing with the secular (not religious) issues the Catholic Church has created for itself.

  13. Leroy, do you have a link to the Galaxy?

    Can’t find it on Daily ToiletPaper or CourierMail, and not on Galaxy site.

  14. Greensborough Growler

    [
    BK,

    Your irrational hatred of all things George Pell reveals your inner Wally.]
    Perhaps you could balance things by informing the PB lounge of Pell’s redeeming features ?

  15. Psephos

    [It’s to do with his complete lack of leadership in dealing with the repeated sex-abuse scandals among Catholic clergy, as well as his refusal to inform himself of the facts about climate change before he sounds off about it in public.]

    Spot on! His initial reaction into the child abuse issue and the intended Royal Commission was appalling.

    And just for your information GG all of my family are Catholics.

  16. sprocket_

    I had a look for the related Galaxy table through google, nothing at all over the last 24 hours. Just the article. Odd, given its still a “bad poll for the govt”. Trouble is I guess, even a marginal improvement goes against the “Super is bad for the ALP” line. Ain’t no vote changer.

  17. The guts of the poll details

    [Support for Labor has also flatlined, with a primary vote of just 33 per cent according to Galaxy, a result that would deliver a devastating electoral defeat if repeated on September 14. Support for the Coalition is steady at 47 per cent, the Greens on 12 per cent.

    Assuming a flow of preferences similar to the last election, this would deliver a two-party-preferred outcome of 54 per cent for the Coalition and 46 per cent for Labor.]

    It was Sam Maiden’s weekly offering, the CM version is here.
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/galaxy-poll-shows-tony-abbott-as-leader-voters-trust-on-superannuation/story-e6freon6-1226619876002

  18. Uh-oh:

    [BEIJING (AFP) – A seven-year-old girl is Beijing’s first human case of H7N9 bird flu, local authorities said on Saturday as China’s outbreak of the disease spread to the capital.

    The girl, whose parents are poultry traders, was in a stable condition in hospital, the Beijing health bureau said. Her mother and father had been quarantined for observation but had shown no symptoms so far, it added.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/world/16712397/first-human-h7n9-bird-flu-case-in-beijing/

  19. jv

    The human rights problem in the Israel Palestine conflict is actually simple if horrendously hard to solve.

    Both sides point to the other to excuse their human rights abuses.

  20. [It is Sunday, maybe William is busy with his life or something trivial,]

    Quite so. I’ve only just learned of this poll now. I’ll hold back on a new post until Nielsen does or doesn’t come through this evening.

  21. guytaur

    Yes, but Israel gets away with dreadful oppression protected under the skirts of the USA. Time it stopped. The US must take a hard line on the new settlements got example.

  22. [a result that would deliver a devastating electoral defeat if repeated on September 14. ]

    Actually it would deliver a 4% swing and a loss of 14 seats. That would be a clear defeat but hardly “devastating.”

  23. [@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 46 (+1) L/NP 54 (-1) #auspol]

    [
    @GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: ALP 33 (+1) L/NP 47 (0) GRN 12 (0) #auspol]

    About the limit of what Ghost tweeted, which shows NewsLtd are keeping this close to their chest. No preferred PM or net satisfactions on the leaders.

    A question on super, but would like to see the wording

    [@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Superannuation policy: ALP 34 L/NP 45 #auspol]

    Nothing it would appear on #Fraudband, but who knows? This lemon of a policy will surely get polled over the next few weeks, but how the questions are worded is important.

  24. jv

    I agree about US etc. I also agree Arab nations overlook Palestine abuses.

    The difference is because of the power dynamic.
    This is why I agree that the US has to make the first move. They are in the strongest position to do so.

    All they need is for their political leaders to lose their fear of the Jewish Lobby. Could happen the way demographics are shifting

  25. [1035
    Psephos
    Posted Sunday, April 14, 2013 at 7:11 pm | PERMALINK
    a result that would deliver a devastating electoral defeat if repeated on September 14.

    Actually it would deliver a 4% swing and a loss of 14 seats. That would be a clear defeat but hardly “devastating.”
    ]

    The use of emotive and evocative language by NewsLtd writers and sub editors is their stock in trade. Check some of the negative spin language they have used today on education policy.

    This phenomena of a major media outlet overtly campaigning (hand in hand, coordinated tactics) with an Opposition is interesting to see how it plays out. Also the government response needs to be thought through, tho a growing number of citizens either don’t read the MSM or think it is crap.

  26. BK @ 1007

    I’m with you, BK, on this one.

    Pell is the most divisive priest we’ve ever had in Australia.

    Hope this new position means he will be leaving Australia for good.

  27. ru

    [I have a uni degree and I am certainly not an Intellectual Elite.

    I guess a degree in electronics is not really that intellectual. ]

    Everyone who goes to Uni isn’t an intellectual elite, but very people who don’t go to Uni are in the “intellectual elite”.

  28. [Brown: 2-10-25-62-31.
    Blair: 4-30-30-36-14.
    Major: 1-12-40-35-9.
    Thatcher: 20-26-10-9-26.
    Heath: who?]

    all stragglers.

    Not a single inspiring politician among them.

  29. Just watching the imagery of the Thatcher protests on the news.

    Ugly, just ugly. The images of life size dolls of her being punched and whacked with planks of wood are repulsive.

    I feel for her family, it must be awfully distressing to see that so soon after she passed away.

  30. I wouldn’t mind Pell so much if he didn’t feel the need to explain what an expert he was on global warming denial science.

  31. [@vanOnselenP: @CraigEmersonMP u won’t find a mistake in my writings. Twitter..I’ll wear that when u time it for Saturday. I can admit to half baked tweets]

    Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa

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