As one of Tasmania’s constitutionally mandated five House of Representatives seats, Franklin has a lower than normal enrolment (72,500 compared with a national average of about 96,000) and has existed without interruption since the state was first divided into electorates in 1903. With Denison accommodating central Hobart and the suburbs on the western bank of the Derwent River, Franklin covers the eastern bank suburbs and areas immediately south of Hobart, starting from the outskirts township of Kingston, together with the unpopulated southern part of the World Heritage area in Tasmania’s south-west.
Labor first won Franklin at a by-election held two months after the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929, before losing it again amid the party’s debacle of 1931. It subsequently changed hands in 1934, 1946, 1969 and 1975, before remaining in the Liberal fold throughout the Fraser years and the first 10 years of the Hawke-Keating government. Labor finally won the seat when colourful Liberal member Bruce Goodluck retired at the 1993 election, which together a strong statewide shift to Labor delivered a 9.5% swing to their candidate Harry Quick. Quick maintained the seat with only mild swings either way at subsequent elections, although there were occasional suggestions he might be brought undone by internal party machinations. When his preselection appeared in danger ahead of the 2004 election, he was able to see off the threat partly by indicating that he might run as an independent.
After choosing his own time of departure at the 2007 election, Quick sought to keep the seat out of factional hands by promoting his staffer Roger Joseph as his successor. This was thwarted when a deal assigned Franklin to Kevin Harkins, state secretary of the Left faction Electrical Trades Union, and Bass to the Right-backed Steve Reissig. Objecting that Harkins was a “right thuggish bastard” who would lose the seat, Quick declared he would vote for the Greens. His attacks drew blood as newly anointed Labor leader Kevin Rudd sought to distance the party from unsavoury union associations, with Harkins carrying baggage from the 2003 Cole royal commission into the building and construction industry. Harkins’ position ultimately became untenable in July 2007 when the Australian Building and Construction Commission brought charges against him over an illegal strike. When he won preselection for the Senate ahead of the 2010 election, he was again rolled by the intervention of Kevin Rudd.
With Harkins gone and the election looming, the preselection was referred to the party’s national executive, which maintained the factional balance in choosing the Left’s Julie Collins, state party secretary and a strongly performing though unsuccessful candidate at the March 2006 state election. The loss of Quick’s personal vote combined with the manner of his departure resulted in Collins suffering a 3.1% swing to the Liberals, one of only four swings to the Coalition at that election. Coming off a suppressed base, she went on to enjoy a 6.8% swing at the 2010 election, the selection highest recorded by a Labor candidate. Collins was made a parliamentary secretary after the election, winning further promotion to the outer ministry in December 2011 as Community Services Minister.
The Liberals have preselected Bernadette Black, a Kingborough councillor who according to the Mercury “has made a name for herself as a spokesman for teenage mums after having her first child aged 16”. Black won preselection ahead of another Kingborough councillor, Nic Street.
Contrary to received wisdom I believe Thursday’s events may well be cathartic for the ALP.
A new Cabinet, with fresh, young talent, united and leak free with a singular goal.
The Rudd rump consigned to the back bench.
And the added bonus … Fairfax with great big putrid lump of rotten egg on its face courtesy of its star Press Gallery journos being so comprehensively gamed and now being humiliated by their journo colleagues is going to have to do a lot of soul searching of its political reporting.
And a fresh new face in the Oz edition of The Guardian starting soon.
Still a long uphill battle ahead but I feel more confident today than I have for months.
ModLib
no, she didn’t.
Rudd resigned and she replaced him.
All the evidence is that she was told she was going to be the next PM, regardless – and that she argued against that.
[If you still believe that Ruddstoration is possible, then you obviously think your man is a bigger liar than I do.]
So Gillard saying she wouldnt challenge and then challenging is not a lie?
Or saying there would be no carbon tax under a government she led and then introducing a carbon tax?
Or going back on her promise to Wilkie?
The trouble with you folk is that you condemn Rudd for disloyalty, but absolve Gillard.
Displayname – Alright, here is how I demonstrate humility when a weakness in my argument is exposed.
Quite correct, I will rephrase – they print what they THINK their audience wants to read.
It’s really not that hard. None of you have answered the question of what mechanism Rudd could have used to take the leadership that did not involve challenging.
Zoom, I note you trying to use your claimed experience as support of your argument. That is weak. If your arguments can’t stand alone, how does an unprovable claim add credibility to it?
You would make a very poor politician.
“@FunHoleNo_5: Hey Dummy!
#PM attempts #MRRT + #CT
Attacked by FACELESS polluters and miners!
#PM attempts #MediaReform
Slaughtered by #MSM!
Questions?”
[zoomster
Posted Saturday, March 23, 2013 at 9:59 am | PERMALINK
ModLib
no, she didn’t.
Rudd resigned and she replaced him.
All the evidence is that she was told she was going to be the next PM, regardless – and that she argued against that.]
Oh, I see. Rudd just had an epiphany and decided to resign on the spot, did he?
The immaculate assassination, eh? :devil:
You guys are just too funny!
zoom
The following is from Radguy
My italics.
Mod Lib…you have such a light touch on intellectual debate it almost appears invisable!
now we wait for the new Ministry. 🙂
@BBCWorld: Cyprus parliament approves measures to help raise 5.8bn euros required to qualify for 10bn-euro bailout http://t.co/UP2iqecDyy
ModLib
I’m not saying that Gillard has never lied in her life – although you’d be surprised the lengths politicians go to NOT to lie – I’m talking about Rudd’s behaviour, which is the subject at hand.
If you want to discuss leaders who lie, I’m quite happy to examine Turnbull and Abbott’s record in this regard.
In this case, we have Rudd trying to pretend that he wasn’t lying when he said he wouldn’t challenge. That’s entirely a question about Rudd’s truthfulness, not Gillard’s.
If the topic under discussion was “Who is the bigger liar? Rudd or Gillard?” you’d have a point…but it isn’t.
The OO trains its sights on Hartcher and Kenny:
[It was Monday and Fairfax mastheads The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age gave front-page prominence not just to Gillard’s words of defiance but also to the latest Nielsen poll that declared the Prime Minister had just 31 per cent support as preferred Labor leader compared with Kevin Rudd’s 62 per cent.
“If I haven’t flinched yet, why would I flinch now?” Gillard told The Age political editor Michael Gordon, setting the scene for a week of chaos, a pressure cooker environment that the same media outlet helped to fuel.
Chris Mitchell, editor-in-chief of The Australian, looked into the story. “I spoke to Kevin several times during the week, as did my senior staff,” Mitchell says.
“We did not put this story on page one because we knew he would not challenge and the yarn was being pushed to create a climate of panic by people who desperately wanted him to change his mind. Journalists who swallowed this were being used.”
Peter Hartcher of The Sydney Morning Herald was the main driver of the narrative. Target firmly in his sights, “The evidence of the last month is that, as a campaigner, Gillard is ineffectual,” Hartcher said of the Prime Minister’s attempts to win over voters in Sydney’s west. “So if Gillard can’t do it for Labor, who can?”
The following day Hartcher doubled up with Fairfax’s new political correspondent Mark Kenny to deliver perhaps the key story of the week.
“Ministers turn on PM” the headline said, the exclusive report detailing how Foreign Minister Bob Carr and a key Labor Left faction member Mark Butler had voiced their lack of support for the Prime Minister.
“Both are understood to have developed grave doubts about the Prime Minister’s political judgment and her ability to campaign,” the story said, again upping the mood for change among those in the Rudd camp.
Hartcher’s analysis that day was even more to the point, declaring the government to be in the grip of a full-blown “crisis of confidence in its leader”.
“The dam of Gillard support has now been breached,” he told Fairfax readers.]
…
[But the Fairfax reporting team were unrepentant, forging on with the story they were now so sure was correct – that Rudd was on the eve of challenging for the leadership and that indeed the numbers were firming behind him.
And by now they were not on their own as all outlets – with the exception of The Australian Financial Review and The Australian – joined the hunt, ramping up a situation already overcooked. Says Mitchell: “It should be clear to any observer that Fairfax’s journalists, in their rush not to repeat their failures to report the leadership story in 2010, when they completely ignored the mining tax debacle, have done a great disservice to their readers and to the government.”]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/opinion/government-disharmony-and-gallery-fantasy-make-for-one-ugly-scene/story-e6frg99o-1226603803324
Hartcher is a laughing stock.
As long as you admit that Gillard is a liar I will ask no more!
That is more than enough for this early on a Saturday morning 🙂
Ratsars@12
Well fancy that!
Well, a whole lot more of us are going to share your experience after the next election so don’t feel too bad.
[joe carli
Posted Saturday, March 23, 2013 at 10:02 am | PERMALINK
Mod Lib…you have such a light touch on intellectual debate it almost appears invisable!]
We can count ourselves collectively lucky that you bring your depth here for all to see!
😉
radguy
My experience is not ‘claimed’ – most people on this blog know who I am and what my history is.
As for my skills as a politician, I have the three best results for Labor at a Federal level in this electorate since at least the 1930s – and in every State election I stood I recorded historic levels of support.
Pity they were all ultra safe Conservative seats!
sprocket, those Latham comments are fantastic
worth repeating
Thursday’s fiasco in Canberra may not have flushed out Kevin Rudd as a leadership challenger in a party room ballot, but it has exposed the delusional nature of his leadership ambitions. His hope that Labor might arrive at a cross-factional consensus on the need to restore him to The Lodge was shockingly misplaced. A majority of his caucus colleagues despise him with an intensity rarely seen in politics, even by the toxic standards of the modern system.
To their credit, in a strong, principled act of defiance, these MPs have said they would rather die on their feet with Julia Gillard than live on their knees under Rudd. This is something high-prancing Tories will never understand – the guts and determination of people who believe in something bigger than themselves to make a stand, not because it’s easy or convenient, but because it’s the right thing to do. It’s an echo of the incomparable Ben Chifley: things worth fighting for, no matter the odds stacked against the cause of Labor. Maybe there is life in the old, battle-scarred beast after all.
Radguy
Humility is overrated :P.
On most issue they report on that’s probably true (they’re a business after all and one would expect some measure of self preservation), but when it comes to political reporting I’m not sure that they’re using their brains at all :D.
Geez, I love Andrew Elder….
” The business model of the Prime Minister has not been smashed. What the press gallery and the Opposition insist is a “shambles” would have been represented as a triumph for any other leader: the challenger chickened out and his supporters have fled. At those press conferences where Ferguson, Bowen et al departed it was hard to hear the lamentation of their women,”
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/
ModLib
all politicians find themselves branded liars at some stage or another.
It goes with the territory.
Against that background, Gillard has been remarkably honest, and certainly far more so than Rudd, Turnbull or Abbott.
@SimonSheikh: The Liberals are shedding jobs in Canberra even before they are in power. Out of money and out of control: http://t.co/8moK5zWPS5
victoria@22
More Gillardista bullshit!
You would be more credible if you were an ALP member.
I can’t explain it any better than this post on The Piping Shrike:
[Spot on shrike. The Labor party is now a death cult, with Julia Gillard as its high priestess, leading all the faithful into a volcano.
The backers and supporters behind Gillard are now talking about “honourable defeat” as if being chucked into opposition for being a bunch of self-obsessed power hungry morons is honourable!
They seem to think that maybe with just a Victorian rump left the party can get back to what it does best, whatever that is. I’m assuming it means fighting over the “spoils” of opposition. What a bunch of losers.
Poll after poll has shown that Australian’s don’t like Gillard and her leadership team, aren’t listening to them, and won’t be voting Labor. Their tin-ears are unfathomable.
I was actually hoping for a snap early election, just to end this psycho-drama. Talk about a case of political blue-balls!]
ModLib
the events of that night are well recorded, and they all bear out that Gillard was told she either took the position or it would be given to someone else.
If you want to argue with that, you’re welcome to provide actual evidence (e.g. statements from those involved which say something differently to that).
Guytaur – You say Rudd was counting numbers. He asked those urging him to challenge if he had the numbers. That is not a challenge for the leadership no matter what any of you say. It is counting numbers, nothing more and nothing less.
You can say that he should have stuck to remarkable ambivalence and not discussed numbers with anyone, however if team Gillard were held to THAT HIGH ACCOUNT, you would have to drop your support of them. A supporter would not go against the word of the one they support, to make a simple example of these double standards.
If I were him and the answer was yes, I would have said petition Gillard to stand down. Then I may be drafted.
The fact that I’m arguing this here is a clear demonstration as to why Team Gillard logic is not going to connect with those you need for a Gillard victory.
bemused
There is a flaw in your argument. Jesus Christ would be most popular in polls too. He has as much chance as Rudd does of leading the Labor party.
A Rudd admirer who was disappointed and disillusioned with Rudd’s rolling, I’ve gradually seen his true colours and have nothing but contempt and disgust for Therese’s ToyBoy, for that is what he is
Suck it up to the last bitter dregs of your hero’s political demise, Ruddistas, for there is nothing worse than betrayal. He will always be “Chicken Kev” now. Politically he’s done.
The delicious thing in hindsight is that Howard got done over by a more devious, lying, backstabbing cowardly prick than himself!!
😆 :lol
[Does anyone think for a moment, if the answer to either of those questions was a Yes, he still wouldn’t have challenged? Of course he would.]
Speculation.
The question now Bemused, is will you get on board, or keep on helping Abbott get the keys to the Lodge. Its Gillard or bust, so if you are a true Labor man, help Labor get re-elected, as unlikely as you think that would be
BK – The most beautiful cricket ground in the world is the perfect place for a wedding celebration.
Hope the day is wonderful for all of you.
[zoomster
Posted Saturday, March 23, 2013 at 10:10 am | PERMALINK
ModLib
the events of that night are well recorded, and they all bear out that Gillard was told she either took the position or it would be given to someone else.
If you want to argue with that, you’re welcome to provide actual evidence (e.g. statements from those involved which say something differently to that).]
Right. So she was faced with the choice of being loyal or disloyal and she chose disloyal as it was better for her personally.
Got it.
radguy
You are arguing semantics. From what I have seen of ALP politics such semantics cut no ice. People know its an attempt at a leadersihp challenge.
No ifs buts or maybes.
I notice ModLib fiercely defending his beloved Turnbull from accusations of lying…
Oh, that’s right. It’s OK, because he’s cool and wears a leather jacket.
Best blessings for the day BK.
@BreakingNews: Apple shuts down Apple ID, iCloud password reset system because of security flaw – @appleinsider http://t.co/W7lilWWJyy
[zoomster
Posted Saturday, March 23, 2013 at 10:10 am | PERMALINK
ModLib
the events of that night are well recorded, and they all bear out that Gillard was told she either took the position or it would be given to someone else.
If you want to argue with that, you’re welcome to provide actual evidence (e.g. statements from those involved which say something differently to that).]
You mean like Gillard admitting her office was writing an acceptance speech 2 weeks before she claims she was suddenly drafted to take the job and had no choice?
@GCobber99: Perrett urges AFP to investigate #Ashby now, adds Abetz to list
http://t.co/FNi59Jnvm3
[To their credit, in a strong, principled act of defiance, these MPs have said they would rather die on their feet with Julia Gillard than live on their knees under Rudd. This is something high-prancing Tories will never understand – the guts and determination of people who believe in something bigger than themselves to make a stand, not because it’s easy or convenient, but because it’s the right thing to do.]
Yes Andrew, it’s well worth repeating! 😉
I’m so glad Latham is back in the tent now. Labor needs more of its former MPs him in the media rather than the hollowed out, sold out Richo types.
ModLib
better for the party. As she recognised.
Very few serious challengers are willing to give their opponent time to get their act together. Gillard was. She was overruled.
But anyway, how about defending Malcolm? Or can’t you?
Or Abbott?
Or are you admitting that you support liars?
BK – Best wishes to you and the family for today.
zoomster isnt it amazing how history has been re-written so that the backstabbing bitch knifed the PM.
The actual reports were that she was arguing for Rudd to be given more time, and ended up with a take it or someone else gets it situation. You only have to look at her face that night to see it all.
You may well have year after year to criticise Prime Minister Turnbull the way things are going zoomster! Its starting to look like another gloriously long period of Liberal rule thanks to Gillard’s selfishness…and I can tell you it is a very exciting time to be a Liberal minded political tragic :devil:
[But anyway, how about defending Malcolm? Or can’t you?]
Against what?
This says it all about Rudd’s manoeuvrings
[Chris Mitchell, editor-in-chief of The Australian, looked into the story. “I spoke to Kevin several times during the week, as did my senior staff,” Mitchell says.]
What is a backbench MP doing by speaking with the CEO of News Ltd so frequently? Whilst Bowen and Co were leaking to the journalists Rudd went to their boss.
Mod Lib…
Give it a rest will you? We ALL know the shameless LIAR in parliament is the Leader of the Opposition…
He has admitted it himself …on several occasions …even tries to present it as some sort of virtue …such is his twisted morality …
ALL politicians say they won’t challenge the leader …Rudd said it whilst prosecuting a campaign of destabilisation …lasting almost three years…
There’s the difference ….
May you and yours have a wonderful day, BK
Adam Carr @AdamCarr2013 7m
@Thefinnigans More attention seeking. This is all just preparation for Challenge III in May. If Rudd wants to helpful, he should just STFU.
@AdamCarr2013 Herr Doktor, for the sake of beating Abbott, i will be generous to Mr. Lu KeWen since we speak the same language
ModLib
You are as delusional as any Ruddista.
You are far less likely to get Malcolm (who you can’t defend even a tiny bit, apparently) than we are to get Rudd.
You are arguing in support of an Abbott government.
That’s why I despise you. I can understand arguing for another leader, but to run interference day after day in support of one you profess to hate is totally incomprehensible to me.
[zoomster
Posted Saturday, March 23, 2013 at 10:15 am | PERMALINK
ModLib
better for the party. As she recognised.]
I accept that you think Gillard taking the ALP to the election is the best thing for the ALP.
Lets revisit this post in 5 years, shall we?
Mod, enjoy Mr. Abbott
Mod
*cough* delusional *cough*
and I can tell you it is a very exciting time to be a Liberal minded political tragic :devil:
But not a Turnbull tragic!
PS. how do you do the devil emoticon?