Multiple commenters relate that a ReachTEL automated phone poll of Victorian state voting intention, commissioned by Channel Seven to capitalise on the week’s turmoil, has produced a surprising result, with little change on the last such poll conducted on February 22. The Coalition primary vote is actually up slightly from 44.2% to 44.9%, with Labor up only from 34.9% to 36.9% and the Greens down from 12.6% to 12.3%. My slightly rough preference calculation had the Liberals leading 51.7-48.3 last time and 51.0-49.0 this time. The poll also has Daniel Andrews with only a slight 53.5-46.5 lead over Denis Napthine as preferred Premier (all non-respondents obviously having been excluded). More to follow, perhaps.
Why bother. Its rubbish.
Time will tell if changing leaders actually does anything at state level lol.
I assume this was taken yesterday, the day after Napthine’s elevation. It would be pretty surprising if a new premier got no bounce at all, although I don’t recall whether Brumby got a bounce when he took over from Bracks.
This was what I meant yesterday when I cautioned someone (? sprocket) not to get too excited about the turmoil in the LNP. If the transition is smooth, and not with the nasty backbiting we had with the federal ALP in 2010, it is not necessarily a negative for the affected party.
A “clean” transition can be seen as a “clean up” (e.g., possible VIC situation) rather than evidence of chaos (e.g., the apparent Federal ALP 2010 public view).
I guess that the libs who had moved away from Bailleau who had after all fallen far in th polls.. might move back with the new man having a clean slate
The test will come in the weeks ahead…if he falters and he same public dismay affects the Libs thahe mighht be on the same track as was Big Ted…then comes the winter of discontent ,with Shaw and his mad mates running wild
(and in the current endles heat any kind o0f winter will be welcome)
Mod Lib
Posted Friday, March 8, 2013 at 10:52 pm | Permalink
This was what I meant yesterday when I cautioned someone (? sprocket) not to get too excited about the turmoil in the LNP. If the transition is smooth, and not with the nasty backbiting we had with the federal ALP in 2010, it is not necessarily a negative for the affected party.
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according to the last reachtel poll the coaliton lost ground under this clean transition
A “clean” transition can be seen as a “clean up” (e.g., possible VIC situation)
Meguire Bob:
The Vic LNP is at the nadir of its term and has experienced a horror week, culminating in a new leader. When you say “lost ground” you refer to a possible 0.7% drop on TPP based on William’s estimate.
I suspect the Vic LNP are pretty satisfied with things
New leaders will attract a bounce, perhaps because they are installed when the old leader is unpopular, but I can’t see Napthine addressing govt’s weaknesses.
Gillard got an early bounce too. Way too early to tell. The are still so many unknowns, like if Shaw can still work with the government, or even what disciplinary action he might face. Conversely, under the Thompson principle, Shaw’s investigation may not be finalised before the next election.