ReachTEL: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition in Victoria

ReachTEL’s second automated phone poll foray into Victorian state voting intention has the Coalition recovering on voting intention, but Ted Baillieu’s already weak personal ratings deteriorating further.

The second of what promises to be a monthly series of ReachTEL automated phone polling of Victorian state voting intention for Channel Seven is rather better news for the Baillieu government than other results they have copped over the past six months or so, with Labor down from 36.8% in January to 34.9%, the Liberals up from 34.4% to 37.6%, the Nationals up from 3.5% to 6.6% and the Greens up from 12.4% to 12.6%. ReachTEL doesn’t provide two-party results, but my own projection based on 2010 election flows has the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5 when rounded to the nearest half a point.

However, personal ratings are all bad news for Ted Baillieu, whose combined good and very good rating is steady at 24.9% while his poor and very poor rating is up from 45.2% to 51.4%, with the very poor rating up from 23.1% to 31.8%. Daniel Andrews’ lead as preferred premier has widened, from 55.6-44.4 to 58.7-41.3, and a question pitting Baillieu against Melbourne lord mayor Robert Doyle and Planning Minister Matthew Guy has 32.5% preferring Baillieu against 39.2% for Doyle and 28.3% for Guy (allowing for usual doubts about the value of asking such questions of all comers, including the party’s opponents).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7 comments on “ReachTEL: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition in Victoria”

  1. Fantastic result for the Libs……we have heard nothing but “LNP on the nose” from the Southerners here. It would appear some political radars might need tuning.

  2. It’s still pretty feeble for a first-term premier. Compare where Bracks was at this stage in his first term, or Kennett for that matter. Labor people have been frankly sceptical about the recent polls showing Labor well in front. This seems more realistic.

  3. To be honest with you, Mod Lib, I’m not aware of any commenter saying anything about Bailieu’s chances other than “we’ll wait and see”. Either you can’t read or you’re making stuff up.

    It is also worth pointing out that this is the result (rounded) Baillieu got when he won the election, narrowly. If the redistribution is unfavourable to the Liberals and Nationals (as is most likely ), and there is a swing against him in specific areas, then he could easily lose or find himself in a hung parliament. “Fantastic result” is stretching things a little, especially since the Liberal primary vote is worse than at the election.

  4. My most recent ALP advice is that Labor is confident of picking up one or two seats in Melbourne, but expect to lose at least one (most likely Ripon) in the country. If the redistribution, as expected, gives Labor a net gain of one or perhaps two seats, Baillieu will be starting from behind. So he will need to do better than this to be confident.

  5. Psephos,

    Ta. I guess the thought of regaining Seymour is in vain then, and Morwell may be permanently lost.

    [Most likely Ripon]

    May I hazard a guess that Ararat and Maryborough are doing a Latrobe Valley on the ALP and beginning to lean the other way or weaken their support?

  6. Well, this is all idle speculation when the election is nearly two years away and we don’t even know the boundaries yet. A country seat will be abolished, so Ripon might well not exist.

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