The Courier-Mail reveals a Galaxy poll of 800 Queensland respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evenings shows a result for federal Labor which is better than their recent form, with Labor holding its ground from 2010 (not that that’s saying much) with 33% of the primary vote and a two-party preferred deficit of 55-45. This is the first time in a while that Labor has been able to enjoy a poll pointing to a status quo result. However, the headline-grabber is a supplementary question on how people would vote if Kevin Rudd was leader, which suggests Labor would be at 47% on the primary vote and lead 53-47. I have all sorts of problems with this kind of exercise, but you can nonetheless expect to hear a great deal of these results in the coming days. The full figures will be published in the Courier-Mail tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full results courtesy of GhostWhoVotes here. The primary vote figures are remarkably similar to the last such Galaxy poll in late November, back when Labor were thought to be on the upswing: 33% for Labor (steady), 46% for the Coalition (steady), 9% for the Greens (up one).
UPDATE 2 (25/2/13): A dire result for Labor in the latest Essential Research poll, which has the Coalition up two points to a epic 49%, Labor down one to 34% and the Greens steady on 9%, with the Coalition two-party lead blowing out from 54-46 to 56-44. Despite that, extensive questions on expectations of a Coalition government are not all that rosy, despite a net positive 10% rating for the economy: workers rights, job security, public services, and even interest rates, the cost of living and personal financial situation are all solidly in the negative. The kicker is that 57% say the government does not deserve to be re-elected, against only 26% who say it does. Thirty-six per cent said the Liberal Party was ready to govern against 45% who thought otherwise. Further questions gauge responses to policies on flexible work hours, industry and supplying mining projects, which party best represents blue-collar workers, and trust in various types of information sources.
Seat of the week: Port Adelaide
Since we already have a new thread going courtesy of Galaxy, Seat of the Week will attend to an electorate of marginal importance for which I was never planning on going to the effort of making a map.
The electorate of Port Adelaide includes Port Adelaide itself and the adjacent Le Fevre Peninsula, including the suburbs around Sempahore and Largs Bay, along with Woodville and its surrounds to the north of the city and, some distance to the north-east, a stretch of suburbs from Parfield Gardens north to Salisbury North, which are separated from the rest of the electorate by the Dry Creek industrial area. Over-quota enrolment required that the seat be pared back with the redistribution to take effect at the coming election, which has added 8000 voters around Salisbury North while removing 700 in the badlands west of Princes Highway. A little further south again, a projected 7,200 voters in a rapidly growing area from the University of South Australia campus at Mawson Lakes north to Salisbury Park have been transferred to Makin. At the southern end of the electorate, 3,300 voters around Seaton have been transferred to Hindmarsh. The changes have boosted the already handsome Labor margin from 20.0% to 21.4%.
Port Adelaide was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949 from an area that had previously made Hindmarsh a safe seat for Labor. Labor’s strength was such that the Liberals did not field candidates in 1954 and 1955, when it was opposed only by the Communist Party. Rod Sawford assumed the seat at a by-election in 1988 upon the resignation of the rather more high-profile Mick Young, member since 1974, and held it until his retirement in 2007. His successor has been Mark Butler, previously state secretary of the Left faction Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union and a descendant of two conservative state premiers: his great- and great-great-grandfathers, both of whom were called Sir Richard Butler.
Butler has quietly established himself as a rising star over his two terms in parliament, winning promotion to parliamentary secretary in June 2009 and then in the junior ministry portfolios of mental health and ageing after the 2010 election, despite his hesitancy in jumping aboard the Julia Gillard bandwagon for the June 2010 leadership coup. He was elevated to cabinet in December 2011 when social inclusion was added to his existing responsibilities, and was solidly behind Gillard when Kevin Rudd challenged her leadership two months later. Housing and homelessness were further added to his workload in the reshuffle which followed Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans’s departure in February 2013.
The Liberal candidate for the second successive election will be Nigel McKenna, a self-employed painter and decorator.
“@rhysam: “The church’s standard billion year contract” -Steve Cannane on Scientology
#lateline”
Shorter Abbott: we can’t tell you exactly what our response to Gonski is because Peter Dutton is the slackest shadow health minister we’ve ever had among our ranks.
FFS!
I’m not watching Q&A this week, so am not totally across what is being discussed ATM, but if the most substantial thing is sucking up to Turnbull in a way they didn’t when he was leader, and frankly doesn’t deserve, then I weep for the community you live in and its soul lost in banality and two-faced hypocrisy.
Hugh Rimington on Channel 10 late news, said he’s been told “no major change” in Newspoll, but no figures yet.
@AP: MORE: Ikea branch says that it won’t sell or serve any meat balls at its stores in Sweden:
http://t.co/PxGXRnKCFQ -RAS
That Abbott speech sums him up.
He doesn’t know what he thinks about Gonski because he hasn’t been told yet.
Wind forecast for Pardoo has been downgraded since earlier reports.
http://wind.willyweather.com.au/wa/pilbara/pardoo.html
[Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
Very very bad Newspoll for the PM….wow. But the @GhostWhoVotes is riddled with errors this evening….]
Yes yes. Who cares.
3247 Psephos
Of course, everyone in the ALP Left is loathed by other sections of the left: that’s the nature of the Left. Also “highly divisive figure” is frequently code for “woman who won’t be pushed around by male faction heavies.”
Classic and accurate.
confessions
In other words its going to be hard to spin as bad for Labor.
That was 5 minutes ago, said they’be out in 15 minutes, so 10 to go. Then they had a chat with Peter from Essential about the better/worse off questions out today.
gc:
Absolutely. He is a puppet.
“@Colvinius: Nailed by @stevecannane: Scientology lawyer who appears not to have read the works of L Ron Hubbard.
#Lateline”
Fun in Rome. Twitter reports that the BXVI has issued a motu proprio altering conclave rules…
Probably just timing (earlier than 15 march – which was unfortunately the date of the assassination of a pontifex maximus)
Psephos@3206
Interesting stuff about the CPA and how they were more moderate than sections of the Victorian ALP left.
Of course the CPA went through several splits with the Maoist CPA-ML splitting off and the Stalinist SPA splitting off, leaving an essentially ‘Euro-Communist’ CPA which was hard to distinguish from the democratic socialist parties of Europe in it’s outlook.
I know some in the ALP and not of the left, had more time for the CPA people than the ALP left! We did work with them at the time of the Vietnam Moratorium and Anti-Apartheid Campaign.
Leroy,
Out of curiosity, and if you don’t mind me asking, do you work in the media or for the ALP? You seem to be across things better and quicker than most. Not being disparraging, it just seems like an intersting line of work, if its the case.
[Fun in Rome. Twitter reports that the BXVI has issued a motu proprio altering conclave rules…]
Catamites will be excluded.
That cyclone might just miss populated ares of the WA coast. I certainly hope it does.
Mod Lib@3218
confessions has so little insight that she fails to see that this would certainly doom Gillard. 👿
“@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 41 (-3) L/NP 59 (+3) #auspol”
“@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Preferred PM: Gillard 36 (-3) Abbott 41 (0) #auspol”
From “April 30”, Guytaur.
Port Hedland wind forecast significantly downgraded from earlier.
http://wind.willyweather.com.au/wa/pilbara/port-hedland.html
[Psephos
Posted Monday, February 25, 2013 at 10:58 pm | PERMALINK
Fun in Rome. Twitter reports that the BXVI has issued a motu proprio altering conclave rules…
Catamites will be excluded.]
lol
I thought it was O’Brien’s comments on married priests that was the issue 👿
Bugler – no, never been in the media, nor in politics (paid). I’m a lowly ALP branch member, and a bit of a news junkie, so sometimes pick up things.
guytaur:
PvO is messing with you and playing silly buggers.
WB
Oh and I only posted after PvO retweeted it too.
Will do better next time.
@vanOnselenP: .@GhostWhoVotes all over the shop tonight….none of his/her numbers are right!
Based on several fake tweets re newspoll. goodness me the Tories are so salivating on this poll …
Turns out a PvO tweet isn’t the gold standard you thought it was.
Player One@3235
Oh, then please let me in on the secret because I have no idea.
Where is James J when you need him?
A 53-47 rogue would be golden
[guytaur
Posted Monday, February 25, 2013 at 11:00 pm | PERMALINK
WB
Oh and I only posted after PvO retweeted it too.
Will do better next time.]
Dont worry guytaur its 61/39
Leroy,
Ah, thanks. I appreciate your efforts.
Zoomster:
[It was only later I realised that the reason we’d had his undivided attention for so long, despite the awkwardness of the conversation, was that he had no idea how to talk to people.]
I caught up with him on Harris St right after an episode of QANDA that I’d attended live. I formed exactly the same impression.
wb
I thought PvO had a standard. I was mistaken. I never thought he had a gold standard.
That is more like Mark COlvin
[We did work with them at the time of the Vietnam Moratorium and Anti-Apartheid Campaign.]
The Victorian Vietnam Moratorium executive consisted of Albert Langer (Maoist), Jean McLean (ALP extreme left), Harry van Moorst (independent Trot), Sam Goldbloom (ALP, but a secret communist) and Bernie Taft (CPA). Taft, a lifelong communist, trained in Beijing, was always the most sensible and moderate of the group. Note that three of the five were Jewish – this was before the left managed to drive the Jewish community into the arms of the Liberals through its support for the PLO.
For real this time I’d say:
Troy Bramston @TroyBramston
#Newspoll Primary: ALP – 31 L/NP – 47; 2PP: ALP – 45 L/NP – 55. Details @australian tomorrow. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/polling/tony-abbott-in-lead-as-julia-gillards-approval-plunges/story-fnc6vkbc-1226585459855 …
Tony Abbott in lead as Julia Gillard’s approval plunges
BY:DENNIS SHANAHAN, POLITICAL EDITOR From: The Australian February 25, 2013 11:00PM
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TONY Abbott has a clear lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister for the first time since July last year, as Ms Gillard’s personal support collapses and Labor’s primary vote languishes at a seven-month low.
Voter satisfaction with the Prime Minister has plunged to its lowest since August last year.
Its 55-45
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/polling/tony-abbott-in-lead-as-julia-gillards-approval-plunges/story-fnc6vkbc-1226585459855
[Tony Abbott in lead as Julia Gillard’s approval plunges
BY:DENNIS SHANAHAN, POLITICAL EDITOR From: The Australian February 25, 2013 11:00PM
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TONY Abbott has a clear lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister for the first time since July last year, as Ms Gillard’s personal support collapses and Labor’s primary vote languishes at a seven-month low.
Voter satisfaction with the Prime Minister has plunged to its lowest since August last year.
According to the latest Newspoll survey, taken exclusively for The Australian at the weekend, Labor’s primary vote is just 31 per cent and the Coalition’s is 47 per cent, virtually unchanged since parliament resumed at the beginning of this month.
After formally breaking away from Labor, the Greens’ primary vote rose from 9 per cent to 11 per cent.
Based on preference flows at the last election, the Coalition has a two-party-preferred lead of 55 per cent to the ALP’s 45 per cent.
It appears Labor’s disastrous polling has become entrenched since Ms Gillard’s announcement of a September 14 election, as voters are more strongly committed to their stated voting intention and less likely to change their vote before the election.]
short version, main article up later
gloryconsequence@3282
If it was 53-47 to Coalition I wouldn’t call it a rogue.
55-45
confessions@3249
Oh? Like MTBW and daretotread?
Hard to predict what this cyclone might do. Reports are that it will hang off the coastline and intensify, which could be disastrous if it moved onshore.
Interesting times ahead.
[Rocco Palmo @roccopalmo
In motu proprio – text only in Italian and Latin – cardinals may, on majority vote, speed up Conclave date only if all electors are present]
Haha…on this inexact tweet, looks like O’Brien would put a spanner in those works (as would absence of Indonesian cardinal)
So, Newspoll on track with other polls.
No surprises then.
WTF was PvO carrying on about then?
Matty told us a week ago it was 55/45. Doesn’t anyone listen anymore.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 31 (-1) L/NP 47 (-1) GRN 11 (+2) #auspol]
The Greens! who da thunk that!
“@Pollytics: Haha Newstroll”
I actually saw someone on twitter who got it right, a right winger who then deleted the tweet earlier tonight. Will keep an eye on that next time and see if its a fluke.
Possum also said earlier trend would indicate 55-45 +/-3%. He was spot on.