The Courier-Mail reveals a Galaxy poll of 800 Queensland respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evenings shows a result for federal Labor which is better than their recent form, with Labor holding its ground from 2010 (not that that’s saying much) with 33% of the primary vote and a two-party preferred deficit of 55-45. This is the first time in a while that Labor has been able to enjoy a poll pointing to a status quo result. However, the headline-grabber is a supplementary question on how people would vote if Kevin Rudd was leader, which suggests Labor would be at 47% on the primary vote and lead 53-47. I have all sorts of problems with this kind of exercise, but you can nonetheless expect to hear a great deal of these results in the coming days. The full figures will be published in the Courier-Mail tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full results courtesy of GhostWhoVotes here. The primary vote figures are remarkably similar to the last such Galaxy poll in late November, back when Labor were thought to be on the upswing: 33% for Labor (steady), 46% for the Coalition (steady), 9% for the Greens (up one).
UPDATE 2 (25/2/13): A dire result for Labor in the latest Essential Research poll, which has the Coalition up two points to a epic 49%, Labor down one to 34% and the Greens steady on 9%, with the Coalition two-party lead blowing out from 54-46 to 56-44. Despite that, extensive questions on expectations of a Coalition government are not all that rosy, despite a net positive 10% rating for the economy: workers rights, job security, public services, and even interest rates, the cost of living and personal financial situation are all solidly in the negative. The kicker is that 57% say the government does not deserve to be re-elected, against only 26% who say it does. Thirty-six per cent said the Liberal Party was ready to govern against 45% who thought otherwise. Further questions gauge responses to policies on flexible work hours, industry and supplying mining projects, which party best represents blue-collar workers, and trust in various types of information sources.
Seat of the week: Port Adelaide
Since we already have a new thread going courtesy of Galaxy, Seat of the Week will attend to an electorate of marginal importance for which I was never planning on going to the effort of making a map.
The electorate of Port Adelaide includes Port Adelaide itself and the adjacent Le Fevre Peninsula, including the suburbs around Sempahore and Largs Bay, along with Woodville and its surrounds to the north of the city and, some distance to the north-east, a stretch of suburbs from Parfield Gardens north to Salisbury North, which are separated from the rest of the electorate by the Dry Creek industrial area. Over-quota enrolment required that the seat be pared back with the redistribution to take effect at the coming election, which has added 8000 voters around Salisbury North while removing 700 in the badlands west of Princes Highway. A little further south again, a projected 7,200 voters in a rapidly growing area from the University of South Australia campus at Mawson Lakes north to Salisbury Park have been transferred to Makin. At the southern end of the electorate, 3,300 voters around Seaton have been transferred to Hindmarsh. The changes have boosted the already handsome Labor margin from 20.0% to 21.4%.
Port Adelaide was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949 from an area that had previously made Hindmarsh a safe seat for Labor. Labor’s strength was such that the Liberals did not field candidates in 1954 and 1955, when it was opposed only by the Communist Party. Rod Sawford assumed the seat at a by-election in 1988 upon the resignation of the rather more high-profile Mick Young, member since 1974, and held it until his retirement in 2007. His successor has been Mark Butler, previously state secretary of the Left faction Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union and a descendant of two conservative state premiers: his great- and great-great-grandfathers, both of whom were called Sir Richard Butler.
Butler has quietly established himself as a rising star over his two terms in parliament, winning promotion to parliamentary secretary in June 2009 and then in the junior ministry portfolios of mental health and ageing after the 2010 election, despite his hesitancy in jumping aboard the Julia Gillard bandwagon for the June 2010 leadership coup. He was elevated to cabinet in December 2011 when social inclusion was added to his existing responsibilities, and was solidly behind Gillard when Kevin Rudd challenged her leadership two months later. Housing and homelessness were further added to his workload in the reshuffle which followed Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans’s departure in February 2013.
The Liberal candidate for the second successive election will be Nigel McKenna, a self-employed painter and decorator.
newspoll to Galaxy
you idiots you have now exposed how farcical our media driven opinion polls are
[The Rudd thing is meaningless as Libs could pretend they’d vote for him but the 2PP of 55-45 is a lot better than the 59-41 Labor is travelling at in Qld on BludgerTrack.]
Shhhh don’t tell William, its our little Q secret.
Bemused @ 5000
Thank you for your reply.
My argument is simply that the word “narraive” in this context has been bandied around only recently ( from mid 2010, about June as I recall) by those seeking a new approach in criticising JG.
And as evidence of this they invent “narratives” retrospectively for past PM’s.
For example, as I wrote @4711 (P95) earlier today:
“Who ever wrote about Howard during 1996-2007 that ” isn’t it great that Howard’s taking us into the Iraq war, and we understand and accept it so much better because it fits under his overarching “narrative” ( did I ask what the fark this means yet?) of “nationalism, security and the triumph of capital over labour”. It’s a nonsense.”
Wahleed yesterday quoted this “narrative” to explain how Howard had one.
Well despite what Wahleed and others say, I believe JG has an overarching perspective under which all her work sits, and you have rightly pointed this out in regard to the NBN.
It is obvious to anyone who wants to see it ie social justice and future proofing the nation.
regarding the narrative thing.
Paul Keating had a narrative. He then lost the next election.
Jackol
“One of those changes is that the ALP’s traditional constituency is disappearing.
The “constituency” may well be disappearing but the constituents are not.
To reiterate, they are merely grouped differently.
Whether they are conned to vote for Abbott or not is a different matter. Clearly some of them did between 19-56 72, and 1975-83 when there was no falling union membership and the associated “we’ll all be rooned” hyperbowl we see now.
Too many dreamers here. Time to get back to the real world. Nite.
@SenatorWong: If Tony Abbott and the Liberals really have nothing to hide, then they wouldn’t be keeping their budget plans secret http://t.co/zMSROZ9eey
Jackol
Then in September I guess we’ll see the Coalition getting about 80% of the 2PP and Labor 20%, just like in 2010.
Yep times do change. That’s why JG is going for fibreoptics.
I hate to break it to you but if they are conned to vote for Abbott they aren’t part of the ALP’s constituency anymore.
@SenatorWong: If Tony Abbott and the Liberals really have nothing to hide, then they wouldn’t be keeping their budget plans secret http://t.co/zMSROZ9eey
If the Liberals really have nothing to hide, then they wouldn’t be keeping Tony Abbott secret…
“@truuebluu: @TurnbullMalcolm @ShareThis Are you seriously telling me Mr Turnbull, as a pensioner, it will cost me $3000 to have fibre to my front door?”
Why would Green supporters vote for Rudd? I thought they supported the Greens?
trak is the real world?
rua
Green supporters would vote Gillard not Rudd. Gillard agreed to Carbon Price. Rudd caved.
[’m starting to wonder if there is a bit of sleep-blogging going on here.]
Diog, no worries, you’ve been hanging off the tree for ages now
The way newspoll will likely be in favour of rudd to suite their agenda
its more and more convincing Gillard will be retained, they are scared of her
MB
Its divide and conquer. They know Labor United cannot be defeated
“@Graemeinnes: #railcorp time for appeal has run out. Decision about announcements on trains stands. Shame I had to lodge two more complaints today. #fail”
Go Mr Inness fantastic work.
footy tonight
“@GhostOfPJK: Since #guardianAU is coming, and #huffpost is looking…let’s get #motherjones in and bury the 4th estate once and for all. #auspol”
“@latikambourke: RT @mat_dunckley: Liberal Party announces it will not field a candidate in Lyndhurst byelection #springst”
I must confess that the Lyndhurst by-election had escaped my notice.
WB
I am not surprised this is the first I have heard of it.
guytaur@20
Gillard!
psyclaw@53
Maybe the term “narrative” wasn’t used, but Labor leaders such as Whitlam, Hawke and Keating certainly have had a coherent story to tell.
In response to your last sentence, it is obvious to the politically engaged. But that is not much of the population. Jonathan Green here: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-02-14/green-the-facts-wont-speak-for-themselves/4517146 is more realistic in his assessment.
They simply want to destroy both PM & Rudd plus ALP. It’s just that KRudd and his supporters are too stupid to see
The Prime Minister does have a narrative, it is the dignity of work.
It is getting educated so you have the skills to get a job and restructuring the economy to provide high skill well paid jobs.
It is the theme in everything she does. If people cannot see it they must be blind.
Madras Curry Sahib, , if your dont use your feet, you’re GORN in India – 4/131
The Finnigans@76
William has banned the word “stupid”.
bemused
Only if you are using like this.
Poster x is stupid for thinking……..
[ They simply want to destroy both PM & Rudd plus ALP. It’s just that KRudd and his supporters are too stupid to see. ]
I don’t think they are stupid – they just don’t care. For some people, winning the factional battle is more important than winning the election.
They probably console themselves that they can then go on to win the election – but in fact this is of secondary importance.
If you’re worried about disunity in caucus now, imagine if the divisive krudd returned? Surely they disliked him sufficiently to turf him once?
would labors rise in queensland go right back down if rudd was expelled you guys think?
TUM
Expelling Rudd is the wrong thing to do even if the rules allowed it.
No Bemused, I merely directed you to stop being a jerk.
[The Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy, Senator Stephen Conroy, and Member for Ballarat, Catherine King, today officially switched on the first National Broadband Network fibre services in Bacchus Marsh, Victoria.]
Must be due to Kevin. Where is the newspaper article?
guytaur @84
well this civil war can no longer go on.
if this issue is resolved, the public will just GO for labor this election as it was this issue that dragged labor from winning status to minority/losing status
I love this bit from the courier mail about the most recent poll:
[ The poll of 800 Queenslanders found federal Labor’s support, with Prime Minister Julia Gillard at the helm, was stuck on 33 per cent support – close to its primary vote at the last election.
This would see Tony Abbott lead the Coalition to victory by 55 per cent to 45 per cent on a two party preferred basis in Queensland if preferences flowed as they did in 2010. ]
Ummm … should someone point out to them that Labor won the last election? That to be so close to achieving the same result at this point (seven months out) is not actually so bad?
What this poll really seems to be telling us is that Rudd seems to have lost much of his gloss – even in queensland!
BB
Stilnox is a sleeping pill, known as zolpidem, and it works in a similar manner to benzodiazepines (valium and many others) in that it enhances the activity of the same receptors (some types of GABA(A) receptors), such that neuronal cells containing these receptors have an increased level of negative current flowing into the cell, inhibiting the activity of those cells. It is a hypnotic that sends you to sleep, but it also has side-effects including impairing your memory, which is why it has been referred to as a “date-rape” drug. In other cases it has been known to be associated with automated behavior during sleep, leading it to be banned in some places and I think we have some sort of warning on it. Oddly, I believe there is evidence for zolpidem assisting people with severe brain damage, but I think that is still at the trial stage and I might have the wrong drug.
Zolpidem is useful for insomniacs as it will send you to sleep. In the case of these swimmers I guess they are prescribed sleeping tablets as they have trouble sleeping during their training routine or in the days leading up to competition. Like most drugs it can be abused, and that appears to be the case here. I don’t know what happens if you take it with alcohol, but it also enhances the activity of similar receptors, amongst other things, and so I assume you shouldn’t take them together. Note that I am not a clinician, so I stand to be corrected on prescribing guidelines.
I sincerely hope that right at this moment, you are not regretting that you asked!
Otiose@82
It would cause another spilt in labor – just because a former leader will not accept being voted out by caucus on two occasions and by huge margins in terms of the rules of the Caucus and the Party.
He accepted caucus decision when he was voted in, but somehow will not accept it when it goes against him.
If he doesn’t get the job, he will wreck the place.
[Ummm … should someone point out to them that Labor won the last election? That to be so close to achieving the same result at this point (seven months out) is not actually so bad?]
Maybe they didn’t think “Galaxy: Swan, Emerson, and other Labor MPs to retain seats in Queensland” would have made a good headline?
“@sspencer_63: But the grass would taste better if Rudd were PM. @Thought4rce #Galaxy Poll finds a huge majority of cows love to eat grass. #TrollPoll”
Thanks NathanA. Appreciated.
(And Diog too).
dave @90
given his aim is to wreck the place, how about getting him far away from the place fullstop, ala expelling him
probably Gillard numbers overstated and Rudd numbers understated since coalition voters wont want labor to change, since Gillard is seen as doing badly and the assumption Rudd would do very well.
How many more points rudd would be ahead hard to say.
Mahatma was a very good spinner – he bowled out the Raj single handedly – http://t.co/Dnn5MGI3Y7
BEFORE this gets off and running again.
Remember all the comments from yesterday. There is not going to be a Rudd return. According to Labor sources speaking on the record.
William Bowe@85
Your partisan moderation (again) is noted.
On the Drum Wilkie disclaiming credit for change on pokies saying lots of people campaigning before he came on the scene. That would include Labor Green and LNP people.
A gracious comment I thought.
Such a superb troll by the conservatives in getting Geert Wilders to speak in Western Sydney tonight.
What an awful place Sydney must be to live in with such an obviously large and outspoken, bigoted, proportion of the community living there.