Famously held by Gough Whitlam throughout a parliamentary career lasting from 1952 to 1978, the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa has been in Labor hands since 1931. However, it is now considered endangered for the first time in living memory after the margin was cut from 15.1% to 6.8% in 2010, followed by the devastating example of the state election the following March. The electorate in its current form covers suburbs clustered around the South Western Freeway and the Campbelltown rail line, from Macquarie Fields south to Ingleburn and Minto and north to Hoxton Park and Liverpool South, together with Liberal-voting semi-rural territory further to the west. The seat has been fundamentally altered a number of times since its creation at federation, at which time it covered Goulburn 200 kilometres to the south-west of Sydney. It was shifted eastwards to the Illawarra in 1934, when it commenced its life as a safe Labor seat, then moved northwards as far as the Sutherland Shire in 1949, and finally adopted its south-western Sydney orientation in 1955, when it covered Cabramatta and Liverpool. In remaining at Sydney’s outer edge since, it has tended to be pushed further south-westerwards over subsequent redistributions.
Labor’s Hubert Lazzarini followed his shifting electorate from 1919 until his death in 1952, except for a term after the 1931 election when it fell to the Country Party. Lazzarini was succeeded by Gough Whitlam, whose tale does not need reiterating here. John Kerin became member in 1978 when Whitlam quit in the wake of the 1977 election disaster, going on to serve a forgettable stint as Treasurer after the failure of Paul Keating’s first leadership challenge in June 1991. Kerin was followed in 1994 by the seat’s second Labor leader, Mark Latham. Although Labor’s hold on the seat was never endangered, Latham went through a wild ride in his time here in more ways than one: the seat swung 9.3% to the Liberals in 1996, 6.5% to Labor in 1998, and 4.8% to the Liberals in 2001. Latham was also disrupted when his strongest party branches were removed from the electorate in the redistribution before the 2001 election. His factional enemies, who were apparently not in short supply, argued he should instead be made to try his luck in marginal Macarthur.
Latham quit politics in January 2005 and was succeeded at a by-election by Chris Hayes, an official of the Right faction Australian Workers Union, who easily retained the seat in the absence of a Liberal candidate. Another round of Labor upheaval followed when the redistribution before the 2010 election effectively abolished the safe Labor inner Sydney seat of Reid (which survived in name but was effectively merged with neighbouring Lowe). Labor’s member for Reid was Laurie Ferguson, brother of Martin Ferguson, with whom he formed the base of a Left sub-faction that had counted Julia Gillard among its number. Ferguson was at first determined to be accommodated in Fowler, to be vacated at the election by Julia Irwin, but a deal was in force reserving the seat for the locally dominant Right. He instead settled for Werriwa under a deal Gillard was able to reach against opposition of Anthony Albanese and the Left, in which Hayes would take Fowler instead. That in turn froze out Ed Husic, national president of the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union, for whom Fowler had been earmarked, but he was accommodated in Chifley following Roger Price’s decision to retire.
The Liberal candidate for the coming election is Kent Johns, the Liberal mayor of Sutherland Shire, who was once a Labor mayor of Rockdale before becoming an independent. Johns reportedly won preselection with backing from factional moderate Scott Morrison. This has generated grumblings from locals aligned with the Right, who complain of having an outsider foisted upon them. Chief among the aggrieved is thwarted preselection hopeful Mark Koosache, a local school librarian and former soldier who has campaigned against cuts to entitlements for defence personnel, who says he is contemplating running as an independent and directing preferences to Labor. There has also been talk that Ferguson might bow out at the election, but he has told the local media his nomination forms have been submitted and he is set on serving another term.
So Day whatever of Abbott’s so-called mini campaign is going swimmingly.
Airbrushed aside on day 1 because of the floods.
Overtaken by PM election announcement on day 5 (why there was a lag is anyone’s guess).
Cabinet reshuffle sees him commit to the band of yesterday’s people on his front bench on day-after-the-day-after-Day-1.
Pyne empahises all that is wrong with the coalition on day-after-the-day-after-the-day-after-Day-1.
Pyne repeats his stupidity on day after that.
What next for tomorrow?
no one even – i hate the English langauge
That was one of the more exciting 24s in crucket
Thanks Henry. 🙂
Btw Test match more exciting. 😀
Agatha Christie wrote a Murder Mystery called “Why Didn’t they ask Evans”.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Galaxy Poll Two Party Preferred: ALP 46 (0) L/NP 54 (0) #auspol
Expand
Was this the Galaxy polling in Boothby?
Is this a national poll, or a state poll?
That’s ok for Galaxy. Wouldn’t call it disastrous.
Take one point off LNP from Galaxy for its house effect and that’s a nondescript result.
galaxy 54-46
Peter Lewis of Essential likes the Galaxy after being dissed for his stagnant pool
[@PeterLewisEMC: @TheKouk That’s more like Labor!]
there should be no surprise if the polls are bad tonight – it wasn’t exactly Labor’s best week
short term pain though, 8 months to go – good polls for the Libs mean more chance of Abbott staying about
re Pyne’s comments – they should be ignored, focus on policy
[When they hit you there you don’t rub ‘em you count ‘em!]
Gentlemen never rub.
bemused @ 1037
We really haven’t stopped since about October, with community BBQs, letter boxing (especially on the NDIS and the NBN).
The community BBQs are interesting. Kevin sends out invitations to people in the area inviting them to come and meet with him. The response has been unreal. Most of the people are not party people, they just arrive with their kids in strollers and carrying them. They all want to speak to Kevin.
On a more amusing side, we did the same thing for our State Labor MP before the last State election, with the knowledge that Rudd would be there. They didn’t want to talk to our MP, Kevin was all the go.
Our MP told the crowd “I just told Kevin to stick around and you’ll be as popular as me.” Some light relief during what was a tough election.
sprocket_@1061
Birds of a Coalition-house-effect feather flocking together!
Is the Galaxy a national poll or a state poll or a seat poll?
I don’t care what the polls are, tbh. Australia deserves better than Gillard OR Abbott. They’re both as bad as each other, and I’ll be damned if either party gets my vote if they’re leading.
If one changes, then they have my vote.
No movement in Galaxy despite the ERMAGADH blitz of the MSM.
46-54??? Maybe that Neil Evans guy doesn’t know the meaning of disastrous?
Galaxy cool.
Next!
To be honest, after what the bookie said I though Galaxy would be worse, taking in the house lean. Not that its good of course. I expect the Newspoll is a decline for the ALP (from where it was) though.
Worth revisiting this, shows the polls relative to each other.
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/2013/01/weekly-aggregated-poll.html
Given that one poll has been 54-46 for what seems a life time, so what?
The thing is the crap that is then spouted if should be Labor is not in the lead.
When polls improve for the government – written off as a kind of aberration.
When there is the odd turn down for Labor it is the death of the party and leadership change speculation is ramped up.
I have no idea what the polls will be but from a common sense point of view, nothing much has happened, and I doubt whether most people are that switched on.
However, we are bound to get, even with a minimal decline on one or two polls, endless stuff on ‘early poll call backfires’……….blah……blah forgetting that 7-8 months is 7-8 months.
Some of the OM pack have already got the meme going that unless the polls pick up by say April it is all over.
Yet, history shows Liberal parties trailing by as much as 4% just weeks out from the real election and getting up.
If, at the weekend before the 24th of September, Labor is trailing 60-40 I would suspect Labor will loose.
However, if the polls are around 52-48 – giving the benefit of the doubt to the conservatives, just two weeks out, I would not give it away.
Again, the PM has not made the date known 7-8 months out from the top of her head.
It is a strategy which could well work. There has been a lot of necessary sorting out at this stage that why the conservatives are trying so hard to show this as some kind of ‘instability’
The absolute last thing they want – and their media masters want – is Labor having clear air.
The current Labor government has still a lot of stuff to do.
TT – You’re such an upbeat person.
An absolute inspiration.
46 to labor. Press still has some influence. Can they keep it for 8 months?
Confessions, it’s wentworth.
Swing is on!
Uh oh, just heard a “yeah nah” on the cricket from George Bailey.
http://www.news.com.au/top-stories/stephen-conroy-to-be-elected-unopposed-as-senate-leader/story-e6frfkp9-1226567727749
[Stephen Conroy to be elected unopposed as Senate leader
Phillip Hudson
Herald Sun
February 03, 2013 8:11PM
VICTORIAN Senator Stephen Conroy will become the third most senior member of the Gillard Government when he is elected unopposed as Senate leader.
It would mean the Communications Minister will be Acting Prime Minister when Julia Gillard and her deputy Wayne Swan are both away.
Two others Senators, Kim Carr and Penny Wong, have decided not to run for the position.
Senator Wong will nominate for the deputy’s post and is expected to be the only candidate at a meeting of Labor MPs in Canberra on Monday.]
So, there you go. One in at 54-46. Hardly disaster area I would have thought.
feeney@1064
Funny about that, he gets the same reaction if he visits Melbourne in support of a candidate here.
Our members seem to have nothing other than the regular newsletters they send out to people in the electorate.
Conroy – Wong is the best Senate leadership ticket available. Thank Gough they persuaded Kim Il-Carr not to run.
[VICTORIAN Senator Stephen Conroy will become the third most senior member of the Gillard Government when he is elected unopposed as Senate leader.]
Good. The ballot is now for the Deputy position.
Congrats Senator Conroy.
[Psephos
Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 9:42 pm | Permalink
Conroy – Wong is the best Senate leadership ticket available. Thank Gough they persuaded Kim Il-Carr not to run.]
Poor Kim backed the wrong horse.
Carr (of the Kim variety) should surely be the next to get the DCM. (Don’t come monday).
My local bloke John Murphy should be in the gun too.
I will help out but geez it’s hard to get fired up for him.
Electing Senator Conroy prob due to the NBN.
I hope that Conroy’s position now get Labor to promote NBN more often in the September election.
[Poor Kim backed the wrong horse.]
Even worse, he changed horses, never a very elegant manoeuvre. He supported axing Rudd in 2010, then supported Rudd’s failed coup in 2012. Now no-one trusts him. He’s a dinosaur and should retire.
Ghost gives us to party but no party data, When will it come?
Conroy – they can’t be serious 🙁
frednk
[Poor Kim backed the wrong horse.]
He has a record on that.
Leroy@1071
Likewise because even if there is no voter sentiment change, the last poll was under trend and a 3-point change from the one before, both of which would make 52 a more likely result this time than 51.
[Chris Kenny @chriskkenny
Yeti footprints melting again? #newspoll
Expand
52s Peter Lewis @PeterLewisEMC
@chriskkenny Let me guess, Newspoll is 54-46 with some analysis about things have got worse since 51-49 a fortnight ago??]
I think we have our NewsPoll numbers – Kenny always says the Yeti is back when there is any improvement in the govt’s polling. Peter Lewis is on the money I suspect, nd crowing.
Reminds me of the December 2012 46/54 when the all out AWU media beatup moved Newspoll from 49/51 to 46/54. Not quite the same issue, but wall to wall anti govt headline screaming govt in chaos may well move the same percentage.
Can media beatups maintain their effect over 7 months?
Also will be most interesting to see how the Abbott disapproval is tracking, as the premature media blitz’s in December and now are designed to keep him in the LOTO job.
[My local bloke John Murphy should be in the gun too.
I will help out but geez it’s hard to get fired up for him.]
NSW complains it is under-represented in Cabinet, but they send no talent to Canberra. Hatton, Hoare, Irwin, Mossfield, Ferguson, Hayes, Murphy, Grierson, Hall – rows of unpromotables hogging their safe seats. Things have improved a little recently with Bowen and Clare, and Husic and Thistlethwaite having prospects. But they’re still a long way behind Victoria.
Galaxy’s job is to create good news for the Coalition. I was a little surprised to hear they were out in the field, considering we knew Newspoll was. They’re reporting first in order to set the standard, fix the narrative.
I can only assume that the point of it, initially, was to capitalise on the mini-campaign, to create an air of positivity about Abbott, a nice friendly poll result to point to. Events have kind of overtaken that. In the end a Galaxy was probably unnecessary, as Newspoll will likely see a little swing back to the Coalition anyway.
What I will say is that the Positive Abbott strategy is in tatters. They’re not going to be able to carry on with it. They probably won’t care much, as they’re more comfortable in attack dog mode anyway. But their entire approach for the start of 2013 has been a colossal waste of time.
Galaxy Poll December 1st:
56-46
Galaxy Poll 3rd Feb:
56-46
No change.
News Poll Jan 14th:
51-49
If Galaxy is no changed, then perhaps Newspoll will change little as well.
It will also be interesting to see where the undecided sit. It seems to be having a large impact on the outcome.
Billy Big Ears was the long standing member for my seat.
I should feel privileged.
The local lib candidate, Craig Laundry (Landy?) is gormless, youngish and unoffensive so I would suggest Mrs Murphy may not be complaining about the parliamentary stroganoff for much longer.
Didn’t read ghosts post properly. 46 for Galaxy, I thought it was newspoll, heck if news poll stays at 49 then MSM is in serious trouble. Unhinging has no effect, what next?
Try saying Thistlethwaite after you have had a few drinks. Then again, try saying it when you have not.
@frednk/1096
I don’t think MSM has an effect anyway, considering 2 galaxy polls no change, and last Newspoll (49) and last Morgan (49.5) show highly for Labor – rather than the heading towards Coalition.
Long wait for James J.
Re-checking the numbers? Not crushing enough for the coalition?
http://twitpic.com/c0j4cs
This is rather clever from a twitterer