Famously held by Gough Whitlam throughout a parliamentary career lasting from 1952 to 1978, the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa has been in Labor hands since 1931. However, it is now considered endangered for the first time in living memory after the margin was cut from 15.1% to 6.8% in 2010, followed by the devastating example of the state election the following March. The electorate in its current form covers suburbs clustered around the South Western Freeway and the Campbelltown rail line, from Macquarie Fields south to Ingleburn and Minto and north to Hoxton Park and Liverpool South, together with Liberal-voting semi-rural territory further to the west. The seat has been fundamentally altered a number of times since its creation at federation, at which time it covered Goulburn 200 kilometres to the south-west of Sydney. It was shifted eastwards to the Illawarra in 1934, when it commenced its life as a safe Labor seat, then moved northwards as far as the Sutherland Shire in 1949, and finally adopted its south-western Sydney orientation in 1955, when it covered Cabramatta and Liverpool. In remaining at Sydney’s outer edge since, it has tended to be pushed further south-westerwards over subsequent redistributions.
Labor’s Hubert Lazzarini followed his shifting electorate from 1919 until his death in 1952, except for a term after the 1931 election when it fell to the Country Party. Lazzarini was succeeded by Gough Whitlam, whose tale does not need reiterating here. John Kerin became member in 1978 when Whitlam quit in the wake of the 1977 election disaster, going on to serve a forgettable stint as Treasurer after the failure of Paul Keating’s first leadership challenge in June 1991. Kerin was followed in 1994 by the seat’s second Labor leader, Mark Latham. Although Labor’s hold on the seat was never endangered, Latham went through a wild ride in his time here in more ways than one: the seat swung 9.3% to the Liberals in 1996, 6.5% to Labor in 1998, and 4.8% to the Liberals in 2001. Latham was also disrupted when his strongest party branches were removed from the electorate in the redistribution before the 2001 election. His factional enemies, who were apparently not in short supply, argued he should instead be made to try his luck in marginal Macarthur.
Latham quit politics in January 2005 and was succeeded at a by-election by Chris Hayes, an official of the Right faction Australian Workers Union, who easily retained the seat in the absence of a Liberal candidate. Another round of Labor upheaval followed when the redistribution before the 2010 election effectively abolished the safe Labor inner Sydney seat of Reid (which survived in name but was effectively merged with neighbouring Lowe). Labor’s member for Reid was Laurie Ferguson, brother of Martin Ferguson, with whom he formed the base of a Left sub-faction that had counted Julia Gillard among its number. Ferguson was at first determined to be accommodated in Fowler, to be vacated at the election by Julia Irwin, but a deal was in force reserving the seat for the locally dominant Right. He instead settled for Werriwa under a deal Gillard was able to reach against opposition of Anthony Albanese and the Left, in which Hayes would take Fowler instead. That in turn froze out Ed Husic, national president of the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union, for whom Fowler had been earmarked, but he was accommodated in Chifley following Roger Price’s decision to retire.
The Liberal candidate for the coming election is Kent Johns, the Liberal mayor of Sutherland Shire, who was once a Labor mayor of Rockdale before becoming an independent. Johns reportedly won preselection with backing from factional moderate Scott Morrison. This has generated grumblings from locals aligned with the Right, who complain of having an outsider foisted upon them. Chief among the aggrieved is thwarted preselection hopeful Mark Koosache, a local school librarian and former soldier who has campaigned against cuts to entitlements for defence personnel, who says he is contemplating running as an independent and directing preferences to Labor. There has also been talk that Ferguson might bow out at the election, but he has told the local media his nomination forms have been submitted and he is set on serving another term.
What a ridiculous decision in the cricket.
This review system is a farce.
GD:
Excellently put.
Newspoll prediction 54-46 Coalition.
Gillard approval down
Abbott approval up minimally from already record low
Henry – there was no conclusive evidence to overturn the decision… But they overturn it anyway!
Cricket is battling all round at the moment.
bemused @ 966
No, haven’t noticed anything at all, although I’ve been off-line as I’ve been feeling lousy all weekend.
I just asked, and will ask again, confessions, what positive, practical help are you offering your local Labor candidate in the upcoming WA election?
You don’t need to be a member, just a willing helper who has strong Labor values to lend a hand. You qualify there.
It can be telephone canvassing, door knocking, letter-boxing,setting up a visible stall somewhere, manning a pre-poll voting centre for a few hous during the campaign, arranging to do HTV cards on election day, even for a couple of hours. It doesn’t matter if you live in a conervative stronghold, as the greater the Labor vote will assist in the Upper House as well.
It beats tap, tap, tapping away day after day when you have the opportunity to contribute a couple of hours work for the party I’m sure you’ll like doing something.
dwh
Rummel only gets really serious around water. Anywhere else he is as safe as houses.
Psephos:
Too right.
One of my male gay friends is a hyper athlete, a huge unit (his GP’s words), and blokesville to his core. When people learn that he’s gay they laugh.
I’ve never seen Pyne as gay, just a prat.
Why is Pyne’s sexuality even considered to be an issue?
Honi soit qui mal y pense
Rossmore – These ‘Ros’ people on here are all trash.
I had just heard it. Tbh, he doesn’t seem all that gay to me, just going by what I have heard, but it’s probably all rumour, like McMahon.
[davidwh
Posted Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 8:38 pm | PERMALINK
I’m never sure when Rummel is being serious or when s/he is playing with our heads ]
Dont worry David. Even i think there is enough of a smell in the Ashby issue to warrant a few questions.
Henry:
What cricket are you watching? I’m watching the Test match between SthAfr and Pakistan.
Seriously hoping Pakistan can do better than their 49 in the first innings. SA have set them 480 to win. They are 1/16 in reply.
Actually someone like a George Negus or a Ray Martin would be an ideal crowdfunded journo.
Semi retired ish, of progressive bent, respected and old enough not to give a damn.
Becoming a convert!
[Chris Ogilvie @ChrisOgilvieSnr
Join the dots †Abbott+Sinodinos = Obeid｜ †Abbott+Jackson/partner = Thomson｜ †Abbott+Brough+Pyne+Lewis = Slipper｜ †Abbott+slush fund = Hanson]
😮
If pakistan score less than 49 this time around confessions then we may need to send in the stewards…
Rummel @#934
NewsPoll Prediction – noting its been a shocking week for Labor, 58/42 Libs.
This is a load of bull but it is the most sensible thing I have seen you post for quite a while
Henry:
Margo would be better.:evil:
[“The latest Newspoll is unlikely to bring the prime minister much good news given her less-than-stellar start to the year, which also included the controversy surrounding her “captain’s pick” of indigenous athlete Nova Peris.”]
Newslimited speculates on it’s own Poll and it power to influence political events. This is getting weirder & weirder.
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/pollies-return-to-canberra-for-2013/story-e6frfku9-1226567655601?sv=2f1f5bf2722f5d0a4c6eaedb3d64a508#.UQ4yvZNe43A.twitter
My prediction for newspoll is 53-47 to the coalition.
To be expected if that’s the case.
Man up peeps, there is a long way to go and it’s almost like JG is encouraging the opposition/msm to fire their big guns early. She’s playing the long game me-thinks.
feeney@1005
It is of course a very good question, but for some reason there seems to be no inclination to answer it. Now I wonder why that is?
confessions@1012
Then you missed perhaps the stupidest third umpire decision ever. Even the Channel 9 commentators thought it was not out, and it takes a lot for them to call a decision against Australia. Inexplicable.
Henry:
Can’t see Pakistan overhauling the 480 at this point.
Stewards it is.
Lance – that’s unusual, unless the journalist has the figures already, in which case its a bad poll for Labor.
Only interest left in this game is if Starc gets the first ever 6 for at the WACA.
Come on in leaps and bounds this bloke this summer.
Aguirre:
The joys of no FTA TV.
Overturned tomorrow when I have my digital satellite installed. I lose Foxtel, but am nonplussed about that.
Poll speculation is a rubbish occupation. I remember 12 month’s ago that Labor would take a hit after the Leadership spill. Didn’t happen.
Most people don’t take miuch notive of the day to day polital battle.
Politically, what came out of last week.
1. Gillard’s new glasses.
2. Abbott promised to take $830 away for each child in school.
3. We have an election date.
4. The Cricket touring squad for India was named.
Oh dear, right in the “solar plexus”.
When they hit you there you don’t rub ’em you count ’em!
Naive GG
Henry
[there is a long way to go and it’s almost like JG is encouraging the opposition/msm to fire their big guns early. She’s playing the long game me-thinks.]
Strongly agree.
1020 bemused
It is of course a very good question, but for some reason there seems to be no inclination to answer it. Now I wonder why that is?
It might have something to do with William issuing a warning the other night to lay off the sniping and baiting.
I am hoping for bad polling for Labor -anything that locks Abbott in as LOTO is a good thing.
Ok Starc HAS to come back on now with the fall of the 8th wicket.
Come on pup, history beckons, game all over now.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
It seems the bookies get the poll results before @GhostWhoVotes @NeilEvansmail
bemused @ 1020
I really don’t know the answer.
It just cheeses me off that people like confessions who bags good Labor people as trolls, and who doesn’t work for the party, just sits back and spews forth the Rudd hatred mantra.
GC,
Thanks for the endorsement.
All the ususual suspects told me my explanation of how Labor would revitalise themselves in the polls after July 1 last year was fanciful too.
I’ll buy another dozen eggs, just for you.
Yep, the neil evans email kouk refers to suggests both polls out tomorrow shows the coalition with a “massive election winning lead”.
How the hell does that happen, talk about insider trading.
feeney@1034
Indeed.
And of course she is not alone in that, sad to say.
How is campaigning in Griffith going? So far there has not been any sign of campaigning in my electorate or adjacent ones.
Neil Evans saying the Newspoll and Galaxy are horrendous for Labor
I thought Nielsen was out tomorrow too?
Hell, make it a trifecta of horrendous nous.
[I am hoping for bad polling for Labor -anything that locks Abbott in as LOTO is a good thing.]
Agreed.
gloryc:
Who is Neil Evans?
My contribution to the guessing game.
Newspoll: 47-53
Galaxy: 45-55
Essential: 46-54
Not sure if that is correct considering that Labor last poll as I said earlier was 51-49 (Jan 14)
4 6s in a row!
a bookie confessions.
Who is Neil Evans and why should he know?
I have given up embarrassing myself so will wait for James or Ghost.
p.s. never trust a bookie
Evening All
Victoria if you are about – the Sinodinos link to Australian Water goes even further if this story is correct – i.e. he wasn’t just the Chairman
For a year until his departure in late 2011, the former finance director of the Liberal Party, Senator Arthur Sinodinos, was the company’s chairman. He has said he too has 5 per cent of the company, though his name does not appear on the register of shareholders filed with the corporate regulator. He said this was because his shares were being held on his behalf by Mr Di Girolamo under a ”gentleman’s agreement”.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/revealed-obeids-3m-water-stake-20130123-2d7j3.html#ixzz2JpUpdgYe
Adam update
Surprise surprise – he couldn’t do it
http://www.adambandt.com/newstartsunday
My final tally:
At the end of Saturday, money left – $10.84 – $3.50 (Travel) – $5.26 (food) = -$19.60 and 16km petrol remaining
At the end of Sunday: -$19.60 – $5.26 (food) = -$24.86 MINUS what I’d have to put aside for the following:
Bills (estimates based on information sent to me from Newstart recipients and averages rates of use – taking into account concessions, off-peak usage and limiting use)
Electricity $15.00
Gas $5.00
Water $10.00
Phone/Internet up to $15.00
Insurance up to $10.00 (if I wanted to keep, say, a car, or insure my home contents)
So, up to $79.86 in debt so far.
Someone on Newstart is allowed to earn $31 per week without this affecting their rate of Newstart (if of course they can find a job that pays $31 a week. NB: Single parents were allowed to earn about 3 times this before the changes on Jan 1).
If I earned this full amount, the debt is up to $48.86.
Raise Newstart now!!!
And on a totally different note – do you think there is a politician or non-Murdoch journalist out there that would be willing to ask either or both the NSW and Victorian Police Commissioners the following question
“Certain elements of the media appeared to have prior knowledge of the arrest of Craig Thomson last week. Based on the links being exposed between the police and media in the UK, can you assure us know one in your service is receiving any form of inducement to provide information to the media?”
Evans wouldn’t post it if he wasn’t sure.
Sorry folks, but the public thinks we’ve had unstable government for nearly three years and that the whole thing’s now completely unravelling. I wish this wasn’t so, but recent events such as the Thomson arrest, the resignation of senior ministers and the timeless election campaign reinforce the meme.