Seat of the week: Fisher

Despite an avalanche of controversy, polling indicates Mal Brough will have little trouble winning the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher from its equally contentious incumbent, Peter Slipper.

Fisher covers the southern part of the Sunshine Coast, from Caloundra north to Mooloolaba on the coast and inland to Maleny and the Glass House Mountains. It originally extended inland to Gympie and Kingaroy when it was created in 1949, but assumed a progressively more coastal orientation as a result of the area’s rapid development. The seat was a fiefdom of the Adermann family for the first 35 years of its existence, being held for the Country Party first by Sir Charles until 1972 and thereafter by his son Evan. Evan Adermann moved to the new seat of Fairfax in 1984, and Fisher was retained for the Nationals by Peter Slipper.

The seat was one of a number of gains for Labor in Queensland amid the debacle of the 1987 Joh-for-PM push, which had found an ardent proponent in Slipper. For the next two terms it was held for Labor by Michael Lavarch, in which time the eclipse of the Nationals progressed. A redistribution in 1993 made the seat notionally Liberal, prompting Lavarch to move to the new seat of Dickson. Slipper then made an improbable return to the seat as a Liberal, and enjoyed double-digit margins between a 14.0% swing in 1996 and the statewide crunch in 2007, when there was a 7.9% swing to Labor.

Slipper managed to win promotion to parliamentary secretary for finance and administration after the 1998 election, despite lingering memories John Howard may have had of 1987, but he was pushed aside to make way for Peter Dutton after the 2004 election. He became increasingly marginalised thereafter, copping an avalanche of bad press in the local Sunshine Coast Daily newspaper and receiving the smallest swing of any Queensland LNP candidate at the 2010 election, when his margin went from 53.5% to 54.1%. It was reported during the campaign that Howard government minister Mal Brough, who had lost his seat of Longman in 2007, had sought to have Slipper disendorsed in his favour, but that Slipper’s position was secured by the terms of the Liberal National Party merger which guaranteed endorsement to all sitting members.

With a clear expectation that he would not again win preselection, Labor identified Slipper as a weak link in the Coalition after losing its majority at the 2010 election, and bolstered its position slighty by successfully nominating him for the deputy speakership at the expense of Coalition nominee Bruce Scott. Shortly afterwards, Brough confirmed that he would contest preselection in the seat. In November 2011 the government went one better in persuading Slipper to take on the Speaker’s position at the expense of incumbent Harry Jenkins, resulting in his expulsion from the LNP and a fierce campaign against him from elements of the media, most notably Sydney’s News Limited tabloid the Daily Telegraph.

In April 2012, a staffer to Slipper, James Ashby, launched legal action claiming he had been sexually harassed by Slipper, and presented evidence purportedly showing Slipper had misused Cabcharge vouchers. The matter soon embroiled Mal Brough, who initially dismissed suggestions he knew of Ashby’s actions in advance before conceding he had met him on multiple occasions and sought legal advice on his behalf. In December 2012, a Federal Court judge dismissed Ashby’s sexual harassment charge on the grounds that it was an abuse of process in which Brough had been directly involved.

None of this prevented Brough from winning a strongly contested LNP preselection in July, after spearheading a vigorous local recruitment drive which reportedly doubled the local party membership. The preselection contest played out against a backdrop of conflict going back to Brough’s tenure as president of the Queensland Liberal Party before the Liberal National Party merger was effected, which saw Brough stand down from the position over dissatisfaction with the terms of the merger.

A surprise late entrant in the preselection race was James McGrath, who had been the director of the LNP’s hugely successful 2012 state election campaign and was thought to be set to secure preselection for the neighbouring seat of Fairfax. McGrath’s backers included Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop. Brough was nonetheless able to win the support of more than half the 350 preselectors in the first round, and McGrath has since been accommodated with Senate preselection. Also in the field were Peta Simpson, director of a local recruitment agency, who had backing from Brough foe Barnaby Joyce; Richard Bruinsma, a former adviser to Slipper; and Andrew Wallace, a barrister.

Labor’s call for Brough to be disendorsed after the Federal Court ruling on the Ashby matter met short shrift from Tony Abbott, who contented that Brough had been “quite transparent and upfront about his involvement”. The following month, Slipper received a Federal Police summons concerning the allegations he had misused Cabcharge vouchers.

In the immediate aftermath of the Ashby ruling, a ReachTel automated phone poll of 661 respondents suggested Brough was unlikely to suffer electoral damage, putting him at 48.4% on the primary vote against a derisory for 2.7% for Peter Slipper (who remained publicly committed to seeking re-election as an independent), 21.2% for Labor, 11.7% for the Greens and 7.4% for Katter’s Australian Party. Brough was viewed favourably by 41.8% of respondents against 34.0% unfavourably, while the respective figures for Slipper were 6.9% and 75.5%. Brough’s involvement in the Ashby matter made 37.3% of respondents less likely to vote for him, against 39.8% for no difference and 22.6% going so far as to say it had made them more likely to vote for him.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

852 comments on “Seat of the week: Fisher”

Comments Page 14 of 18
1 … 13 14 15 … 18

  1. zoomster

    I suppose whatever is the most effective way to get the message out to the majority of the voters in the electorate.
    Knowing the make up of the demographics in your electorate helps. Is radio or tv more popular?
    I know with the recent council elections in my locality, door knocking by the candidate seemed to be the most effective communication tool. Of course, in a large electorate that may be a huge task for the candidate.

  2. [actually, that’s why I’m asking – do issues really sway votes?]

    I think it’s more about how those issues are framed. Personalise them to people and you might find they do.

  3. zoomster

    As mentioned previously, if you do happen to challenge for the seat of Indi, i will make a donation to your campaign.

  4. Today’s Capital Circle blog, summarising the politics press, includes a link to Geek’s online article on Greg Hunt’s spambots, amongst various other links.

    http://bit.ly/XqQdhX (top link)
    [Election countdown begins
    BY: BEN PACKHAM
    From: The Australian
    January 21, 2013 8:02AM

    Capital Circle is back and ready to rumble in election year 2013.

    …………..

    Politics 2.0: Opposition frontbencher Greg Hunt has been accused of using foreign spam bots to retweet his Twitter missives far and wide. We couldn’t raise Hunt to respond this morning.]

  5. zoomster@642


    As I said once to a school group, in answer to the ‘what is the most important issue you’ve ever dealt with?” question – ‘whatever is bugging someone at the time, however trivial it seems to you, is the most important issue in the world to them.’

    Perhaps that is one of the reasons why “that speech” had such an impact.

  6. [Ben Packham ‏@bennpackham
    Hunt denies Twitter spam bot claim. Says he hasn’t the technical skills to pull off such a ruse
    9:40 AM – 21 Jan 13]

  7. Good morning, Bludgers, esp Dawn Patrollers.

    Zoomster:

    [don’t the words ‘conservation’ and ‘conservative’ have the same root? And pretty much the same meaning.

    A true conservative would be a conservationist.]

    The best way to illustrate the difference time & context make to a word is to show the shift in meaning of one we all know.

    What would you presume if someone said to you, “I’ve come to prevent the arrival of Tom Ragamorn”?

    Today, would you respond, “Why? What’s he done?”, or “That’s great. I’ll clean up the guest room and write a shopping list”?

    Until the Age of the Novel (& fairly reliable postal services) began midC18, “Pre vent” had the same meaning as the Latin “pre”=”before”; “vent”=”come”; so “prevent” imp “I’m here to let you know in advance that Tom Ragamorn is on his way to visit you”. Today, “prevent” means “stop” – probably because what many heralds announced was the imminent arrival of someone or thing the person he told did not want to occur; hence “prevent” = both “let you know in advance” and “so you can stop/ guard against what is coming.”

    Conserve, in its traditional sense, was to take steps to keep things – food, heat, buildings, systems of production, national security etc – so they could best continue to serve their purpose. Two of its most common uses describe treatment processes (a) to ensure short-life products like fruit remained edible throughout winter & early spring, until more food could be grown; hence “conserve” meaning “jam” and food (fruit & vegies) preserved in sugar syrup and/or vinegar; (b) “conservatory” a building/ room for growing plants (inc food plants) which conserved heat of the sun (through glass) and/or stoves.

    “Conservative” in a political sense, has a very different history – a C19 renaming of a political party with several earlier names. Going backwards, they were: Tory Party, Jacobites, Royalists; ie, “conservatives” started as Charles I’s supporters in his war against Parliament (Royalists); then his son James II’s supporters’ war against Parliament’s sacking him and installing Dutchman William of Orange in his place (Jacobites); then, when it became obvious to all but fanatics that Stuart Restoration was impossible, the party was renamed “Tory”‘ then, after a few reactionary, unpopular, incompetent etc governments & internal splits, it was further “rebadged” as Conservative Party … all aiming to “conserve” the party’s electability after two centuries of arrogant, aggressive, unsympathetic (esp to the poor and those dispossessed by Enclosure, Industrialisation etc) self-destructive political behaviour.

    IMO, Cameron’s Government is acting in a manner typical of its pre-rebadged fore-runners.

  8. Leroy

    [Politics 2.0: Opposition frontbencher Greg Hunt has been accused of using foreign spam bots to retweet his Twitter missives far and wide.]
    That’s outrageous.He should be using Australian spambots . Stop the Spamboats !

  9. Good morning

    I see the Australian has an article about the Roxon anti discrimination laws. They claim legal experts think they are unconstitutional.

    Until legal experts here tell me otherwise I think poppycock!!
    The UK has similar laws and have more rights in their constitution than ours from what I understand.

    No wonder the nickname smearstralian is gaining currency.

  12. zoomster,

    Primacy and recency are key.

    Be the first to raise an issue or be the last to make your “telling point” For TV ads, be first or last in a ad break. In a debate and you are first, raise a new “important point” or, if you are last, make sure last point is a telling one.

    As for the issues, try to be the one who sets the agenda – your agenda. I guess which issues are key will vary.

    Not trying to teach you how to suck eggs; I’m sure you already can.

  13. Thanks OPT @657…I suppose I assumed the enemies of the people called themselves Conservatives because Preservatives implied they were on;y useful to things that had died.

  15. I am scandalised by the National Press Club’s brazen and wanton disregard for National Security considerations.

    It is particularly concerning when this breach of, what I can only assume is Classified information, is a repeat, almost precisely a year to the day, of “the most serious security breach involving our nation’s top leaders since the 1970s” (A. Abbott, such a sincere man)

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/opposition-to-call-for-police-probe-into-gillard-adviser-leak-20120129-1qo42.html#ixzz2IYnNp6tD

    For the benefit of those nihilists at the NPC giving succour to who knows what terrorists, I remind them of the fate of the “staffer who leaked the location of Opposition leader Tony Abbott.”
    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3798896.html

    I myself, do not wish to be an accomplice to this security breach: “It should be unthinkable for a security breach of this nature not to be fully investigated by the Australian Federal Police.” (A. Abbott again; just what this country needs – a benevolent iron fist guiding our democracy)

    But let’s just say on January 31, 2013, from 11.30am – 1.30pm, I will be nowhere near the National Press Club

    http://www.npc.org.au/upcomingspeakers.html

  16. As for JM, this blog and life in general, to have to tolerate people who just try to insult those around them and create animosity as a form of amusement. Like I said, JM was a dogfight on the beach. He wont be missed.

    Voltaire was arguing about censorship. William has not censored JM, who remains completely free to start a fight anywhere he likes, other than in William’s salon.

  18. briefly

    Have just read the entertaining interaction between your self and Dorrie Evans last night and thoroughly enjoyed the exchange.

    As Deblonay said we should hear more from Dorrie. He has a style of his own as do you and I absolutely agree with the comments he makes.

    You two add colour and context to the site.

  20. guytaur

    I don’t think we want to go down the Tony Blah legislation path. I would like to know more details about this bit ” the proposed legislation, which will make it unlawful to offend or insult others.”. The EU save the UK from the worst of it but the “insult” and “offend” bit still saw stupidity such as the following occur.

    [‘Insulting’ words crime which made it illegal to call a police horse ‘gay’ is to be changed

    Six years ago police tried to prosecute Oxford student Sam Brown after he said to a mounted officer: “Excuse me, do you realise your horse is gay?”]

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/9801377/Insulting-words-crime-which-made-it-illegal-to-call-a-police-horse-gay-is-to-be-changed.html

    [An unnamed 15-year-old who demonstrated outside the Church of Scientology’s London headquarters with a sign calling the religion a “dangerous cult” was arrested and charged in 2008, before the CPS dropped the case.]
    [Teenager Kyle Little was arrested and prosecuted over a “daft little growl” at two dogs, despite their owners not supporting the move. Little’s conviction was later appealed at Newcastle Crown Court in a case which cost the taxpayer £8,000.]
    http://www.theweek.co.uk/uk-news/51002/free-call-police-horse-gay-section-5-reformed-last#ixzz2IYpn2erV

  25. the LNP, the Preservative Party…we should describe them as the corned beef and pickled pork of Australian politics….the tinned beetroot, the jerky or the small-goods of public policy…. 🙂

  28. [the LNP, the Preservative Party…we should describe them as the corned beef and pickled pork of Australian politics]

    Spam is much more appropriate.

    Btw is there a worse canned foodstuff than Spam?

  31. Darn….it is a couple of pages back….William, assuming the role of his namesake, the famous cowboy, Will Rogers, said very little more than “Adios”, before un-plugging the outlaw, JM, who has not been seen since.

  32. Zoomster…

    It’s long been my belief that the NBN is a winner for Labor …it is very popular …it is something the younger demographic understands & wants ( as do many older folk, so please don’t call me ageist (I’m 63) 🙂 ) …professional people/farmers/academics/small business all ‘get it’ as well.

    Now how to sell it …my belief is that ‘word of mouth’ is still the most effective way to get people thinking about an issue …so an advertising campaign showing people talking about it in local pub …over the ‘garden fence’ …at the local bowling club …in the street where it’s being rolled out …in the school playground …etc etc

    Folks will be heard extolling it’s virtues to one another …”it’s so much cheaper/faster/more reliable than what we had before” …”it’s changed/improved my (insert small business)” …”I don’t need child-care as much because I can work from home” …”I feel so much safer living alone and/or with my (insert chronic illness/disability) knowing that someone is monitoring me 24/7″

    These messages can be got out via Old Media …and are particularly suitable for FaceBook & Twitter (where the network of followers acts exactly like a huge informal information ‘grapevine’ …or, if you like, an extension of ‘word of mouth’

    Twitter doesn’t suffer the distorting/corrupting effect of the old “pass it on” communication method where “Send reinforcements, we’re going to advance” becomes: “Send three & fourpence, w’ere going to a dance” Twitter messages remain un-corrupted identical copies no matter how many times they are re-tweeted.

  33. Laocoon @ 665

    Also worth noting the outcome in July. Only DT seemed to have reported on this in any length.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/police-clear-adviser-over-lobby-restaurant-riot/story-e6freuy9-1226418337423
    [Police clear adviser over Lobby restaurant riot
    Matt Johnston The Daily Telegraph July 06, 2012 12:00AM

    ONE of Julia Gillard’s media advisers was acting “within the scope of his duties” when he passed on information that unwittingly led to Australia Day protests, police say.

    Federal police documents released to the The Daily Telegraph under Freedom Of Information show that Tony Hodges passed on “accurate” information about Tony Abbott to union official Kim Sattler.]

  37. Mumble today is back to St Kevin vs the Earl mournful pining. But this made me blink:

    [A few ALP supporters caricature Turnbull as a filthy-rich greedy capitalist, but many Labor true believers quite like him. He reminds them of the great Paul Keating: republican, economically dry, socially progressive (sort of), a doer, arrogant, massive ego, would not be dictated to by faction chiefs and opinion polls. ]

    MT is nothing like Paul Keating. Really, what has happened to Mumble.

  40. guytaur

    [poroti

    I think Roxon is smarter than that and has learnt from those mistakes.]
    I hope so. A lot of the criticism will be hyper bowl and hyperventilating but great stupidity can be done with the best of intentions. Tony Blair’s legislation had much to do with stopping the shite thrown at muslims post 9/11 by some hate groups. All good but it also resulted in police with IQ’s that matched their shoe size arresting people for saying a horse was gay.

  42. DisplayName

    [I don’t think most people know what the local council does.]

    Bunkum! Utter Bunkum! Local Government business, members, actions, controversies – whether the Council be huge (eg Brisbane City) or small – is the stuff of local & state newspaper articles (&letters to editors, SMSs, tweets etc) and TV segments (inc commercial channel “current affairs”).

    Unless you’re visually & aurally disabled, or lack any interest in local government, there’s no excuse for your attributing to others what you don’t do yourself.

    [Do we have civics lessons in our schools? I can’t recall ever having one …]

    Again, unless you’re visually, aurally disabled, you obviously paid no attention in class to your civics/ social studies (by whatever name, in any state or territory), there’s no excuse for your attributing to others what you don’t do yourself.

    OTOH, you could be deliberately “misspeaking” or seeking attention.

    From the time I started school (1947) until I retired from any form of teaching/ education (early 1998) what became known as “civics” was part of most (if not all) school curricula. I know that because, from 1971 when, as an external postgrad student attending Res schools & conferences, I met and discussed curricula with many teachers from primary to postgrad. Later, as an HE teacher, my students not only included some school teachers, not only from Oz, but also from OS – Pacific Island, SE Asia, MidEast. From early 90s, I could (& did) download Oz & OS curricula. I haven’t kept up with school curricula during retirement; but I have with Oz policy, and there’s been a push for extra shcool emphases on citizenship (aka civics) studies & skills.

    Much of my knowledge of the history and practice of government (in civics, back to the Anglo-Saxon “moots” as well as Norman & later reforms) came from my Qld primary school education, as did most of what I wrote in response to Zoomster re “conservatism”. We learnt most of it “by heart”, then taught it under various titles; the reasons I can still rattle it off.

    You need fact checker, DN!

  43. Leroy quoted:

    [Politics 2.0: Opposition frontbencher Greg Hunt has been accused of using foreign spam bots to retweet his Twitter missives far and wide. We couldn’t raise Hunt to respond this morning.]

    That’s as may be. 150 evil beer junkies, web advocates, infuriatingly shy award-winning bacon mavens and Zombie music addicts, explorers and twitter-aholics (many with lovely buttocks and breasts or who look like manga characters said the whole spambot thing was “studied in” and “sometimes, bye!” (albeit sometimes with cyrillic characters).

  45. [confessions
    Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 at 10:43 am | PERMALINK
    Mumble today is back to St Kevin vs the Earl mournful pining. But this made me blink:

    A few ALP supporters caricature Turnbull as a filthy-rich greedy capitalist, but many Labor true believers quite like him. He reminds them of the great Paul Keating: republican, economically dry, socially progressive (sort of), a doer, arrogant, massive ego, would not be dictated to by faction chiefs and opinion polls.

    MT is nothing like Paul Keating. Really, what has happened to Mumble.]

    When one sells their “soul” to Old Rupe they have to do as they are told, I would imagine. Obviously Mumbles is no George M

  46. markjs

    The NBN is the public relations policy crown jewel for Labor. Already it has delivered Labor government twice at least.

    Abbott launching on his rip up the NBN was always onto a vote loser from the start.

  47. guytaur, victoria:

    When was the last time MT argued for a republic? He spat the dummy after the referendum was lost, and hasn’t said boo about it since.

    Keating OTOH never shied away from his vision for Australia.

  48. confessions

    Mumble has maintained that Abbott and the coalition are going to win handsomely. Of course, based on current polling, he is correct. But he has now varied his rhetoric a little because the polls have tightened. What to do? Throw in some commentary about MT being viable to Labor voters. He knows as much as the rest of us

  49. confessions

    MT did not argue for a Republic. He argued for his Republic. Another example of how Keating was superior to MT on this issue.

  50. [would not be dictated to by faction chiefs and opinion polls.]

    It’s weird, isn’t it?

    We know exactly what MT was like as Oppo leader, yet people act as if he was being impersonated.

    MT WAS dictated to by the factions and the polls. There is absolutely no evidence suggesting he wouldn’t be the same next time.

    A bit like those Libs here who pin their determination to vote for Abbott on the idea that he doesn’t mean a thing he says and will recant it all when the election’s called.

Comments Page 14 of 18
1 … 13 14 15 … 18

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *