Seat of the week: Solomon

The Darwin seat of Solomon has been on a knife edge since its creation in 2001, but only with Kevin Rudd’s election win in 2007 was Labor able to get over the line.

Consisting of Darwin and its satellite town of Palmerston, the electorate of Solomon was created when the Northern Territory was divided into two electorates at the 2001 election. This appeared set to be reversed at the 2004 election, when the Northern Territory was found to be 295 residents short of the requisite number. Since both major parties felt they could win both seats (a more sound judgment in Labor’s case, at least at the time), the second seat was essentially legislated back into existence. This has left the two Northern Territory electorates with by far the lowest enrolments in the country: at the time of the 2010 election, Solomon had 59,879 enrolled voters and Lingiari 61,126, compared with a national average of around 94,000.

The Northern Territory gained its first member of federal parliament in 1922, but the member did not get full voting rights until 1968. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Northern Territory electorate had recently fallen to Sam Calder of the Country Party after a long period in Labor hands. With Calder’s retirement in 1980, the seat transferred to the Country Liberal Party, which had been established as a local alliance of Liberals and Nationals to contest elections in the newly established Northern Territory parliament. Labor gained the seat with the election of the Hawke government in 1983, defeating CLP member Grant Tambling (who returned as a Senator four years later). It subsequently changed hands with great frequency: future Chief Minister Paul Everingham recovered the seat for the CLP in 1984, Warren Snowdon won it back for Labor in 1987, Nick Dondas held it for the CLP for one term from 1996, and Snowdon recovered it in 1998.

Going into the 2001 election, the new seat of Solomon had a notional CLP margin of 2.3% while Lingiari had a notional Labor margin of 3.7%. Warren Snowdon naturally opted for the safer option of Lingiari, and Solomon emerged as an extremely tight contest between Labor’s Laurene Hull and David Tollner of the CLP. Tollner suffered a 2.2% swing against the national trend, but was able to hang on by 88 votes. The Northern Territory recorded only a modest swing to Labor at the 2007 election, but it proved just sufficient to deliver them their first victory in Solomon, with former football coach Damien Hale prevailing by 196 votes. The defeated Tollner returned to politics after winning the seat of Fong Lim in the Northern Territory parliament at the 2008 election, and has been health, housing and alcohol rehabilitation minister since the CLP’s election win in August 2012. Hale meanwhile enjoyed a short tenure as member, suffering a 1.9% swing in 2010 and what by the electorate’s historical standards was a relatvely large 1.8% defeat. The seat has since been held for the CLP by Natasha Griggs, who had previously been the deputy mayor of Palmerston.

Solomon’s distinguishing demographic characteristics are a high proportion of indigenous persons (10.3% in the 2006 census compared to a national figure of 2.3%) and a low number of persons aged over 65 (5.3% against 13.3%). Darwin is divided between newer Labor-leaning suburbs in the north, including Nightcliff, Casuarina, Jingili and Sanderson, and the town centre and its surrounds south of the airport, an area marked by higher incomes, fewer families and greater support for the CLP. Stronger still for the CLP is Palmerston, a satellite town established 20 kilometres south-east of Darwin in the 1980s that accounts for just over a quarter of the electorate’s voters: it is less multicultural than Darwin and has a high proportion of mortgage-paying young families.

Labor’s preselected candidate for the coming election is Luke Gosling, a staffer to Senator Trish Crossin and volunteer operations manager of a charity he co-founded which works in East Timor. Griggs meanwhile faces a preselection challenge from Peter Bourke, a doctor at Royal Darwin Hospital.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

549 comments on “Seat of the week: Solomon”

Comments Page 7 of 11
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  2. Ive tried one in the DT … see what happens… kept it mild, middle of the road, well as best as I could.

    has a Moulder comment.

  4. [

    docantk
    Posted Sunday, January 13, 2013 at 11:36 am | PERMALINK
    My comment from 2 hours ago praising the PM did not make it… no surprise. I complained on twitter.

    If this “censorship” by the DT creates a false sense of security amongst LNP voters, then I’ll enjoy there faces come election night as they see they were just the Noisy Minority.]
    What is your twitter name? Check some of the stream Twitter going mad about it at the moment

  5. People on Twitter are getting very annoyed by the O’Farrell plan to charge householders $300 for fire protection. Previously the fire levy has been added to home insurance but this meant that people who insured were taking the whole burden.

    I think this has also been considered for Vic.

    Seems fair to me.

  11. Socrates If they’re worrying about heat to that degree NW of Ceduna then things are really hotting up. At least it will get a few people thinking more about action needed.

  12. The Herald Sun still has the PM article headed “ready for a fight ” amid talk of battles and battleground but the Daily T in Sydney now has her “sharing her plan” to win back voters. Well done psyclaw. for telling them.

  15. I wonder if the PMs office have spoken to News about fact that her letter wasn’t published in online DT. It finally appeared at 11a.m. Link in previous post.

  17. [confessions
    Posted Sunday, January 13, 2013 at 12:16 pm | PERMALINK
    mari:

    How unsurprisement!

    Rossmore:

    Love it.

    315
    Rossmore
    Posted Sunday, January 13, 2013 at 12:17 pm | PERMALINK
    I wonder if the PMs office have spoken to News about fact that her letter ]

    Well Well try again on this article, or “once more unto the Breach dear friends” to quote a famous king?

  19. Troy Bramston would say that, wouldn’t he. He’s just jealous, and maybe longing for times and fame lost.

    Poor little Troy now fills in his time by reading the next day’s headlines on Sky News late every night, headlines written by others. And he gets to appear on crap talk shows on Sky where he is always introduced as a ‘former Labor speechwriter to Kevin Rudd’. That word ‘former’ must really hurt every time he hears it. Sacked for being boring, unable to get a gig with another politician, reduced to being a talking head on Sky, no wonder he makes snarky remarks about whoever writes the PM’s material these days.

    Troy and his former boss should get together for a good cry over a lot of drinks, I’m sure it would make both of them feel better.

  21. [But lets face it he does the news ltd propaganda

    and his credibility out of the window ]

    Disagree completely. Unfair personal attack IMHO.

  22. WeWantPaul
    Posted Sunday, January 13, 2013 at 12:27 pm | Permalink

    But lets face it he does the news ltd propaganda

    and his credibility out of the window

    Disagree completely. Unfair personal attack IMHO.

    ————————————————

    Its not a personal attack

    He has predicted Gillard to be gone as pm , he has spread the news ltd propaganda

    and he still is spreading the propaganda of a election whitewash, with no factual basis

  24. IGA helps but Aldi is the best thing that’s happened appropos the BIG TWO. I shop at Aldi for everything I can: better the profits go to Germany than to the Liberal Party.

  26. Another side light to the ‘pick and choose’ attitude of the OM in the West, is the fact that is a coterie of regular contributors to L-to-the-E who get a run on several occasions.

    I assume, because they are identified publicly in the West, then I am able to further note their presence here.

    There is a woman, I assume, called Judith Williams(?) from Salter Point, and another fellow Mario Rapanaro whose regular anti-Labor, anti anything to do with the left side of politics get regular and repetitive exposure.

    Aside from them, there are another 4-5 of like kind who, as regular as clockwork, get their pieces published.

    That is not to say others vaguely supporting the left side of politics do not get published at all, or the fact that these individuals may write a constant stream of letters, but it never ceases to amaze me how their usually snarky pieces get a run.

    It is hard, on this evidence, to demonstrate ‘bias’ by the West, but sure as hell, they do get more than a fair hearing.

    I think now, it does not matter so much, as fewer and fewer persons are reading the paper and even fewer bother to read either the letters or the editorial.

    It is not so much that they are influential rather than predictably boring.

    There is one guy, name escapes me, who regularly carps about anything to do with gun control – but then he may be acknowledged by the West as some kind of Joe Blow spokesperson. Who knows?

  27. Australia’s hottest recorded temperature and heat-wave records are being broken during the current ones?

    Er … probably not – yet!

    The hottest (witnessed) recorded shade temperature (still listed as such) was 53.1C (127.5F) degrees, Australia’s highest temperature: Cloncurry (16 January 1889).

    The highest on postWarII equipment, according to Oz’s BOM, was at Oodnadatta, SA, 50.7 degrees Celsius (2 January 1960).

    [The world heat record for consecutive days goes to Marble Bar in Western Australia, which recorded maximum temperatures equaling or over 37.8°C on 161 consecutive days, between 30 October 1923 and 7 April 1924.]
    http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_the_highest_recorded_temperature_in_Australia

    Cloncurry’s & Oodnadatta’s highs, however, were “cooler” than Farenheit recordings made by Burke & Wills and McKinley Expeditions’ members 1860-61. Recording shade temperatures was an established practice, though both expeditions also recorded some in the sun (noted as such).

    Records of these expeditions’ (very extensive & expensive) equipment, inc thermometers, are archived, and some instruments survive; so it’s possible to measure their accuracy against those used throughout Oz’s history of recorded temperature. Difference is very minor.

    I can’t find B&W’s journals online (but have read them); but did locate McKinney’s. As his expedition and B&W’s narrowly missed each other, the 2 sets of recordings of 1860-1’s hellish Summer have been compared and are comparable.

    McKinley Expedition: John Davis’ Journal (November-December 1861)

    Monday, 11 November 1861.
    Fearfully hot; thermometer 135°… It is so very hot in the sun that most of the animals are in the lake, some even rolling in the water.

    Saturday, 16 November 1861.
    At daylight the thermometer was 63° at 2 pm it was up to 140°; heat intense; no breeze.

    Sunday, 17 November 1861.
    The thermometer at noon was 130°; at 12.20 it was up to 164°. The heat was so great we could do nothing. We tried to sleep, but the flies prevented our burying our troubles in that way. Everything was hot, the water in the lake even.

    Monday, 18 November 1861.
    This day opened fine, with very little wind; the highest temperature 160° in the sun.

    Wednesday, 20 November 1861.
    Last night the heat was insufferable; most of us forsook the tent and took our blankets into the open air, which was an improvement. Rain brewing all round. Some heavy drops falling. To the west and north it seems to be raining heavily. Thermometer, 6am 86°; wind strong; perhaps when it lulls we may have some rain. The wind is hot as if it came out of a furnace … The wind was so high today that it actually drove back the water in the lake some five or six hundred yards.

    Thursday, 21 November 1861.
    This morning calm and sultry, and no rain to disturb us last night, but the sentry in the middle watch called us, as he was afraid the wind would take the tents away again. We were all soon out, but the tents were too well pegged down, and we turned in, all standing in case we might be wanted in a hurry. The water in the lake has returned to its old mark. Thermometer at daylight 85°

    Tuesday, 26 November 1861.
    … there is hardly anything to put down in a journal; in fact, in McKinlay’s there is nothing save the state of the weather and the range of the thermometer. The wind from south east and beautifully cool, which, as you may imagine, dear reader, is a luxury in an Australian summer. Highest range of thermometer today, 120°.

    Saturday, 30 November 1861.
    Highest temperature today 120°

    Sunday, 1 December 1861.
    … Temperature today 139° and rather hot as you may suppose

    Friday, 6 to Tuesday, 10 December 1861.
    For the last week I find nothing in the journal but the temperature; extreme variation, 54° to 122°.

    Wednesday 11 December
    Today, about noon, McKinlay returned, having succeeded in finding Burke’s and Wills’ graves.

    Friday, 13 December 1861.
    … At 11.30am to 12 o’clock the thermometer was up to 165°.

    Monday, 16 December 1861.
    McKinley’s expedition cuts the DIG tree and buries letters from McKinley for any parties who come and for Commissioner of Crown Lands.

    Thursday, 19 December 1861 … Temperature during the afternoon, 145° very hot; indeed, no air hardly.

    Although the searing heat continued, this is the last entry in which temperature is recorded. My memory of Frank Clune’s Dig (as well as diaries etc) is that someone in either Burke & Wills or McKinley’s party recorded an incident of the (mercury) thermometer’s bursting from the heat (despite its having being put in a tree to shade it). The entry below suggests it did so during McKinley’s.

    Sunday, 29 December 1861.

    Pity the thermometer is gone, as we should have noted day by day the changes in the temperature, which are very great and sudden out here.

    Climate change activists might consider that actually googling “the facts” before lurching into “scare campaign” mode might gain their cause greater credibility.

  29. The Daily TelaLie has out done itself with the PMs letter.

    First they publish excerpts, interspersed with framing like “the polls are showing an overwhelming LNP victory”.

    Then allow comments, but screen out all those favourable to PM, so the first 30 or 40 so are negative, with a neutrals allowed later.

    Then at 11am they publish the full letter, which bears little relation to the original story.

    I somehow think these shenanigans are doing more harm than good to the regime change aims of Murdoch.

  30. “@sallysaraABC: To young guy who yelled out ‘slut’ while I was walking today,I’m doing special ‘slutwalk’ to the police station, to give them your car-rego.”

  31. OzPol Tragic@327


    Climate change activists might consider that actually googling “the facts” before lurching into “scare campaign” mode might gain their cause greater credibility.

    See:

    http://climatecommission.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/CC_Jan_2013_Heatwave4.pdf

    From that report (emphasis mine):

    [ The heatwave affecting Australia in late December and early
    January brought extreme heat to most of the Australian
    continent over a sustained period. Temperatures above 40°C
    and 45°C were unprecedented in their extent across the
    continent, breaking new records for Australian averaged
    maximum temperatures. The heat was also unprecedented
    in its duration    . ]

    Scare campaign? I think not!

  34. [By the way, a certain person (whom I may get into trouble for mentioning, however indirectly) was banned because of the potential for starting some sort of cross-site fight.

    Just saying …]

    I gather that you believe you’re making a clever point here about inconsistency in disallowing sniping at one site (a small private blog) while allowing it at another (the fucking Daily Telegraph). Were the snipers ignoring repeated instruction not to snipe at the Daily Telegraph (though it defies comprehension why such instruction would ever be issued), perhaps you would have the faintest semblance of a point. But you don’t.

  35. 329
    sprocket_

    The sheer blatancy of it can be pretty amazing at times.

    Do they really think nobody is going to notice, or care about, their desperate spinning?

  36. Re the DT comment section — Do you think someone at the DT might just be having a little go at us here ?

    This comment #150

    Alan of Brisbane
    Posted at 1:37 PM Today

    I find it very disappointing that nine people out of one hundred and thirty eight comments support this dreadful government.
    Comment 150 of 150

  37. Hullo folkes. Long time no speak.

    Was impressed by the PM’s letter (when we eventually got the whole thing).

    Unfortunately, the daily torygraph chose, as usual, to censor it.

    They complain about freedom of the press, yet exercise censorship on a daily basis.

    Sad indictment of our current state of media.

  43. Just Me

    Interestingly, according to Graham Richardson, Turnbull did approach the ALP when he decided to get into politics and according to Richardson he told Turnbull he was better off joining the Liberal Party.

    Would seem neither side wants him

  45. Knew that MT had talks with Labor at some point. But didn’t know of Richardson’s advice to him.

    Given it came from Richardson, one would be within rights to suspect an ulterior motive. Like nobbling MT. 🙂

    But I think he is right, MT is a less unwelcome fit in the Coalition than in Labor.

  46. I’m old enough to recall that Mumble spent the entirety of 2004 blasting Labor for having made Mark Latham leader. If this were happening right now, it would of course be seen through the prism of his News Ltd shill-dom.

  47. WB

    [spent the entirety of 2004 blasting Labor for having made Mark Latham leader]

    I would have done same – 3 hopeless choices in a row.

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