Morgan has published results from a phone poll of 523 respondents conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, which have Labor on 36.5% of the primary vote, the Coalition on 44.5% and the Greens on 8.5%. Morgan’s headline two-party result is 51-49, but this comes from the dubious respondent-allocated preferences measure: the more reliable measure using preferences from the previous election has the Coalition’s lead at 52.5-47.5. This being a phone poll, it should not have the Labor bias associated with Morgan’s face-to-face polling. It also reverses the consistent trend of the face-to-face series in giving Labor the better result on respondent-allocated preferences (I have consistently had grave doubts about the face-to-face polling on this score). However, the poll shows no gap in voting intention between men and women, which perhaps illustrates the difficulties you can get with small samples. The margin of error on the poll is about 4.3%.
Morgan has also taken on the tricky job of framing questions appropriate to the knotty AWU matter. The most useful of these asks if respondents approve or disapprove of Gillard’s response, coming in at 37% and 28% respectively. A question on whether the Prime Minister should resign if “scandal allegations are true” has 43% saying she should against 27% saying she shouldn’t, but this rather overlooks the enormous range of the allegations that might be levelled (had they started a few days later they could simply have asked if respondents agreed with Christopher Pyne). Another question asks whether Gillard “was aware that the AWU ‘slush-fund’ was illegal when she resigned from Slater & Gordon in 1995”, which seems simplistic at best. Thirty-three per cent answered in the affirmative (including 10% of Labor voters and 20% of a tiny sample of Greens voters) against 26% negative, 17% couldn’t say and 24% not aware of the scandal.
There is also an entertaining plethora of questions on preferred party leaders, the chief head-to-head scorelines being Gillard 49 Abbott 36, Turnbull 59 Gillard 31, Gillard 46 Hockey 44, and Turnbull 54 Rudd 38. Not featured: Gillard versus Rudd or Abbott versus Turnbull.
Seat of the week: Perth
The electorate of Perth extends north-eastwards from the city centre to accommodate an area bounded to the south by the Swan River, extending from Mount Lawley and Maylands to Morley and Bassendean. An electorate bearing the name has existed since federation, with the entirety of the metropolitan area having been divided between it and Fremantle until the expansion of parliament in 1949. It then assumed more familiar dimensions, with Swan being drawn into the metropolitan area and Curtin created to accommodate the western suburbs.
Perth was held from its creation until 1922 by James Fowler, first as a Labor member and then as a Liberal and Nationalist following his defection in 1909. It thereafter remained in conservative hands until the Labor landslide of 1943, when it was won by Tom Burke (father of Brian). Burke held the seat until defeated in 1955 by Liberal candidate Fred Chaney Senior, whose son Fred Chaney Junior was a Fraser government minister, Senator and member for Pearce. Chaney was in turn unseated in 1969 by Joe Berinson, who became a junior minister in the Whitlam government and later a state Attorney-General. When the 1975 debacle cost Labor all its WA seats except for Fremantle, Berinson suffered a narrow defeat at the hands of Liberal candidate Ross McLean.
Redistributions in 1977 and 1990 respectively reoriented the seat westwards to the advantage of the Liberals and eastwards to the advantage of Labor. Australian hockey captain Ric Charlesworth was able to gain and hold the seat for Labor in the more difficult conditions after 1983, and Stephen Smith came to a seat with a solid Labor margin when he succeeded Charlesworth in 1993. It continued to trend in Labor’s favour thereafter, remarkably producing a slight positive swing amid the 1996 landslide, and surpassed Fremantle as Labor’s safest WA seat at the 2010 election. However, such has been the party’s progressive malaise in WA over the past decade that the margin has worn down to 5.9%.
Stephen Smith had been an adviser to Paul Keating and a state party secretary before entering parliament, emerging as a senior figure in the Right faction. He was elevated to the front bench after the 1996 defeat, and became Foreign Minister when the Rudd government came to power in 2007. He relinquished this role with displeasure when it was given to Kevin Rudd after the 2010 election, instead being assigned to defence. His desire to return to the foreign ministry was thwarted when Bob Carr was drafted after Kevin Rudd’s failed leadership challenge in February 2012. Smith also served as Trade Minister from Julia Gillard’s ascension to the prime ministership in June 2010 until the reshuffle which followed the subsequent election.
A Liberal preselection in June 2012 was won by Darryl Moore, a former mining engineer now involved in “investing in and managing the family’s commercial and industrial real estate portfolio”, ahead of Geoff Hourn, a former lieutenant-colonel in the Australian Intelligence Corps.
Rolf Harris!
Can’t be … surely!
BB
Speaking as someone who used to work with WIRES, congratulations on your contribution. There should be more like you, whether you do the course or not.
It only takes one officious jerk to damage the most important resource volunteer organisations have — the pool of volunteers.
I’m sorry that you were treated like that.
[How many so-called moderates have been preselected by the Liberals to stand at next year’s election?]
In NSW it is between the Hawke Crazies and the Loonies, not many Mods there.
This is probably starting to come across as a “let’s quiz Mod Lib evening”, but if you could pick politicians from any party (or independents), who would you pick?
I only ask because I just remembered some comments a little while back about a Queensland state PalKat (or something) party and wondered what kind of hybrid monstrosity you might choose to create if you could :P.
Bowling is not something that the Liberal Party do very well:
http://www.kudelka.com.au/2012/12/stumps/
Solly Earth, too hot, had to turn on the AirCon
[The Finnigans
Posted Saturday, December 1, 2012 at 6:35 pm | PERMALINK
Solly Earth, too hot, had to turn on the AirCon]
If you leave one door open you are helping to cool the globe while cooling the house.
Wot a Catch!!!!
so Mod Lib dreams of moderate liberals in the Parliament.
I would think that the second last one of this species was Paul Haslack and the last was Chris Puplic. Since then a void.
Mod Lib:
The damage Howard inflicted on the party took place over many years. It will take at least a similar amount of time (possibly longer give how entrenched the reactionaries are in the party), for that to be redressed.
You should be looking for a post-Howard era MP to rebuild the party.
Thanks Fran.
As HI said, “Maybe she just had a bad day?”
The thing that tells it all is that over the past two years Abbott et al could have proposed policy and had it adopted.
GG
and i both have that opinion it had to be wide ranging and it is/,that is what we where both saying.
so in 10 /15 years will all know want we.
people always say stuff about the catholic church i am use to it,lol
[confessions
Posted Saturday, December 1, 2012 at 6:39 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib:
The damage Howard inflicted on the party took place over many years]
I suspect the damage Gillard is inflicting on the party will give us those years.
The year in political photos:
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/photogallery/opinion/political-news/a-year-is-a-long-time-in-politics-20121129-2ah9o.html?selectedImage=0
My favourite is number 21, which shows The Greens with their new BFFs. 🙂
[If you leave one door open you are helping to cool the globe while cooling the house.]
Yep – I have one that is sized to cope with heating in CBR winters.
If I run it to cool you actually cannot turn it down enough and have to keep turning it off.
I didn’t miss Bronwyn Bishop; I just forgot she was a woman.
watch out 4 Confessions, zoomster!
ModLib
to help you with your women problem, you could add Sussan Ley and Sharman Stone – both moderates, too (and you’re short a Minister or two, anyway).
Mod Lib:
This is the party’s real problem:
[ The modern Liberal Party is not for people who take initiative – this is a matter for history and rhetoric only, from when the party was dominated by small businesspeople. The modern Liberal Party is for people who carry out the brief set for them and do not question it. This is why drones like Julie Bishop have thrived while more subtle minds have floundered. ]
http://www.andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/
Simply installing MT as leader won’t ameliorate these problems, which have become ingrained over many, many years.
Mod Lib@412
Pyne leader of the opposition? I don’t think the ALP would take him.
[I suspect the damage Gillard is inflicting on the party will give us those years.]
Gosh, am shocked you’re actually admitting the coalition will be in opposition for a while yet.
Welcome to sanity!
BB
Great tale about your WIRES experience. Such a pity that people who let “power” go to their heads manage to turn off others who are trying to assist through the goodness of their hearts.
One thing you need to be careful of when dealing with birds (esp parrot varieties) is psittacosis. My husband was bitten by a cockatoo who he tried to save and developed pretty bad symptoms (loss of weight/bad headache/tiredness). Never was totally confirmed but antibiotics were prescribed and did the trick. The doctor said it was either psittacosis or meningitis. I suspect it was the parrot fever.
Brian Mc,
[I would think that the second last one of this species was Paul Haslack and the last was Chris Puplic. Since then a void.]
You are forgetting my late (in terms of no longer being there) and much-missed Federal MP, Petro Georgiou. While I couldn’t stand him in his PM-advisor role in the late 1970s, my respect for him has grown over the years.
And now we have …
Yep ‘fess
Gillard is inflicting a lot of damage on the Libs. I reckon decades for them to recover.
ruawake@379
Apologies for being way behind but this has to be answered.
It is far better that the ALP be seen to clean up the NSW Branch rather than leave it to the ICAC and other authorities to do the work.
There is not a year till the next Federal election as zoomster posted earlier, there is about 9 – 10 months and they will pass quickly!
Something needs to be done and done quickly to turn around (justifiably) negative perceptions of the NSW Branch of the ALP. It needs to be highly visible and dramatic to make a big public shift in public perception that the ALP is purging itself of corrupt elements.
c@momma’s subtlety is invisible and won’t cut the mustard. It will not be effective quickly enough, if at all.
There is at least one moderate preselected to stand for the Liberal party at next year’s election: Christian Porter.
But given he is replacing a retiring fellow moderate, his election won’t increase the moderate numbers in the partyroom.
Another former federal Liberal MP for whom I have great respect is Fred Chaney.
[Gosh, am shocked you’re actually admitting the coalition will be in opposition for a while yet.
Welcome to sanity!]
The damage Gillard is doing to the ALP will give the Libs plenty of time in government to nurture moderates if Turnbull is leader.
2013 is certainly going to be an interesting year and we will soon see who is right and who is wrong, eh?
[Pyne leader of the opposition? I don’t think the ALP would take him]
Oops… LOTH not LOTO (another fraudian slip perhaps?) Heheh 🙂
[It is far better that the ALP be seen to clean up the NSW Branch rather than leave it to the ICAC and other authorities to do the work.]
Agree, I just reckon it would be more valid if the NSW Branch cauterised itself.
ru:
Time was always going to work against the opposition, hence their hell-bent campaign to make the government fall over.
As we keep saying here, it’s obvious they had no Plan B. Elder has predicted they’ll fall into a rabble over xmas/new year. I hope that, as with his other predictions, this one is also correct. 🙂
Let’s take ML seriously and assess his mooted Cabinet:
Turnbull PM Has demonstrated terrible team management skills, ludicrously bad judgement in consorting with and relying on the deranged, and is dangerous near cats. FAIL
Sinodinos Treasurer Has had no ministerial experience at all. A good back-room operator, but a crossed-fingers appointment as Treasurer, really?
Greg Hunt Foreign Affairs Agreed
Joe Hockey Finance Minister Lacks discipline, is lazy and has been unable as Shadow Treasuer to hold the Shadow Frontbench to funding/costing sanity. Bound to FAIL.
Andrew Robb Trade Has demonstrated an inability to cope with complexity. Has, demonstrated that he cannot get along with significant colleagues. His presser on the Coalition’s broadband policy in the last election was a joke. Lacks the personality to lead trade negotiations. Bound to fail.
Christopher Pyne LOTO & Education Has shown scant interest in, or understanding of, education policies. Was part of a government that delivered a terrible skills deficit in the face of the mining boom. FAIL
Tony Abbott Health (the best friend Medicare ever had)Failed once. Will fail again. Does not understand the health needs of that half of the population who are not male. Cannot separate his catholicism from secular issues, particularly as they relate to female reproductive parts. Would cut health spending. FAIL
Julie Bishop Mining Can’t remember what happened last week. Serial failure as shadow minister. Doesn’t do policy except by plagiarism. FAIL
Ian Macfarlane Environment MinisterFox meet chookshed. FAIL.
George Brandis Attorney GeneralHas demonstrate that he is prepared to bastardise the law for party political purposes. In this sense, corrupt before he even starts at a job requiring integrity. Would bring the legal industry further into disrepute. FAIL
David Johnston Defence Has been a more or less consistent failure as Defence Support shadow. One of the genuine, dyed in the wool, dopes. The Defence tribe would have him for breakfast.TOTAL ROUT OF A FAIL
Barnaby Joyce Regional DevelopmentWould do an excellent job of rolling out the pork barrell. Would bastardise market forces. Can’t tell the difference between millions and billions. Not to worry it is all someone else’s money he would be shovelling out in the regions. Would totally ignore the free-marketeers in the Coalition causing frequent outbursts of internal ill-feeling. Would need a driver re-education course to help to stay on the road and out of flooded creeks. A perfect fit for a Coalition Regional Development Minister.SUCCESS – but would you really want him to succeed?
Bruce Bilson Small Business What has Bilson ever done for anyone. A genuine nobody. Small ‘f’ fail
Scott MorrisonClap Hands here comes the Brockhoff Baker.
Bronwyn Bishop AgeingFree kero and points of order. FAIL
Matthias Corman Financial services.Finance industry spiv wet dream.
Ken Wyatt Indigenous AffairsHas had no ministerial experience. Has demonstrated no policy nous. Has evinced no particular interest in Indigenous Affairs. Tokenism of the worst sort.
Wyatt Roy Youth Affairsditto
Talk about threadbare.
[Another former federal Liberal MP for whom I have great respect is Fred Chaney.]
A former colleague of mine worked directly for Chaney a few years ago. Her experience turned me right off him. Another arrogant, born-to-rule type.
[DisplayName
Posted Saturday, December 1, 2012 at 6:34 pm | PERMALINK
This is probably starting to come across as a “let’s quiz Mod Lib evening”, but if you could pick politicians from any party (or independents), who would you pick?]
Funnily, given the discussion about gender distributions of ministries, I would have Senator Wong, Tanya Plibersek and Nicola Roxon in a dream team cabinet.
I would certainly dump Swan and Gillard but there would be room for Mark Butler and Mike Kelly
Fiona,
Yes,Petro moved down the unusual hard right to moderate path also travelled by Malcolm Fraser after he left Parliament.
Fred Chaney is another I missed.
More Newman lies.
Power lines he said would not be built in Logan prior to the election have begun construction. Its only 22km of shame.
[The damage Gillard is doing to the ALP]
What damage? If anything she has united the party, and has a record number of legislation under her belt.
The Liberal Party is not a broad church. The Dries have herded everyone into a very small part of the right transept. Everyone else gets defenestrated through the stained glass.
We {mainly the Mrs J6] look after wildlife from the backyard.Bush turkeys ,lizards,kookas possums.We back onto a national park
No training ,accredited etc. you do what you have to do.
I would love some Govt. Dept to come here and tell my OH. that she can no longer help injured wildlife because she dosen;t have a certificate.
Confessions,
[A former colleague of mine worked directly for Chaney a few years ago. Her experience turned me right off him. Another arrogant, born-to-rule type.]
Interesting. I shall reconsider.
[Fred Chaney is another I missed.]
Fred Chaney
Petro Georgiou
Ian McPhee
Bruce Baird
and soon to be added to the list is Judi Moylan
I am shocked.
Confessions has an “insiders” story about how a liberal is actually bad.
Who would have ever guessed such a thing?
Joe6pack,
[I would love some Govt. Dept to come here and tell my OH. that she can no longer help injured wildlife because she dosen;t have a certificate.]
If your OH is your true mate (which I suspect she is), the officious official would be lucky to retreat without rearrangement of certain important bodily parts.
And appropriately so!
Robert Hill was a pretty good Howard minister. One of a very few.
ModLib,
[and soon to be added to the list is Judi Moylan]
Except that she squibbed over asylum seekers.
However, add Judith Troeth to the list.
[Robert Hill]
Ah….how nice to dream about the old days …..Hill vs. Button.
[Except that she squibbed over asylum seekers.]
Like 100% of the ALP caucus?
IMHO the generality of activities involving healing injured wildlife probably has no biodiversity benefit at all, and, indeed, may have negative impacts through temporary, scattered, confused and unsystemic interventions in Mr Darwin’s laws.
It may prolong suffering and cause problems for other individuals when healed individuals are released into the wild.
The best thing in the overwhelming majority of cases would be to administer a quick and humane death.
And then apply all that energy, skill, care and love to helping humans who need help.
fiona
It would be ugly 🙂