Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

Essential Research has been slow to catch the trend to Labor detected elsewhere, but it finally falls into line with a two-point shift in its latest weekly survey.

Troy Bramston of The Australian has just announced on Twitter there will be no Newspoll this evening, so I’m giving the weekly Essential Research its own thread instead. The result finds Essential maintaining a recent record of taking a while to catch up with the trend, even after accounting for the stabilising effects of its two-week rolling average methodology. Labor has made a two-point gain on two-party preferred to now trail 53-47, from primary votes of 36% for Labor (up one), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). This is Labor’s strongest two-party vote from Essential since June last year, and its strongest primary vote since a month previously. There’s even been a move in favour of the carbon tax, up three on support to 38% since June and down six on opposition to 48% – although there are now 69% who say they have noticed an increased in costs compared with 52% in August, with no increase down from 36% to 24%.

On the question of whether a seat at the UN Security Council would be of benefit, 44% say it would and 24% say it wouldn’t, which interestingly compares with 66% and 14% when the question was last posed in September 2008 (right when the global financial crisis was erupting, if that means anything). The poll also finds clear majority support for implementing higher taxes to fund the National Disability Insurance Scheme, dental health scheme and Gonski reforms, but not the purchase of new submarines (although Lindsay Tanner might have something to say about that). Sixty-eight per cent responded that a budget surplus was important “for the country as a whole”, but only 46% for them personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,953 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. John Howard: “When the PM and the Treasurer say that the Aust economy is doing better than most, they are right, I agree with them”

  2. [poroti
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 6:49 pm | PERMALINK
    OzPol Tragic

    And every time a Scots/ Irish pipe band starts up, we could all wear those Greek costumes & pom-pom slippers; teach them to think they have monopolies on the world’s silliest silly male skirts!

    Them Greek ones do nae look quite so able to do this

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_WEP9ZkpS4

    I knew you would have a video Poroti, think the stocking the Greeks wear under their skirts would sort of tone “down” the effect???

  3. [This little black duck
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 7:10 pm | PERMALINK
    RT material, Mari. Even HoJo gets a small (err, large) part.]

    Not surprised you had a bit of a problem with small or large with HoJo!!

  4. Mari and TLBD,

    I thought that that youtube was one of the better things to come out of the 2010 campaign. Definitely worth a rerun 😉

  5. Rua Kouk said if we stopped collecting tax but kept our current spending for 7 years we would end up with the same debt as Greece. Our current expenditure is around $350 billion times 7 = $2,5 trillion. Happy to have you check the maths.

    Perhaps Kouk mean we would end up with a similar debt/GDP?

  6. [fiona
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 7:14 pm | PERMALINK
    Mari and TLBD,

    I thought that that youtube was one of the better things to come out of the 2010 campaign. Definitely worth a rerun ]
    You are right but must admit I was astounded when he sent me this, really thought he was a Lib Tweeter

  7. [What the backlash of Jones really means is this: Yes, we took offence at Jones’s comments. Yes, it does in fact go deeper than that. Hundreds of thousands of Australians have snapped, had enough – not because they are part of a left wing conspiracy, but because they are fed up, disgusted with the level of personal abuse leveled at politicians in this country – much of which is aimed at the Prime Minister Julia Gillard, who whether you agree with her politics or not (and many of those condemning Jones don’t agree) does not deserve the death threats, obscene cartoons and insults to her dead family that are her lot on a daily basis. So no this isn’t an isolated case regarding Jones’s remark, but it was when our collective patience snapped, decent people said enough is enough, and it’s time to stand up and end this culture of nastiness.]

    http://www.sikamikanicoblogs.com/2012/10/the-real-story-behind-jones-backlash.html

  8. [poroti
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 7:18 pm | PERMALINK
    mari

    I knew you would have a video Poroti, think the stocking the Greeks wear under their skirts would sort of tone “down” the effect???

    Youtubes-R-Us . Here is a better quality version.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAgNNPSMY1M%5D

    Poroti I really thought I was going to get a “front on” I feel very let down???

  9. “Mr Thomson, who has been suspended from the Labor Party, told AAP that Williamson’s arrest didn’t come as a surprise.

    But he said police had not spoken to him in relation to the hindering of investigations and he was not one of five people of interest. “Quite clearly that’s not me,” he said.”

    What a laugh. Now where is the “Outrage”? No nasty words here, but charges are being laid and its dead quite in this place. Labor are linked 100% to this disgrace on its own members

  10. Mari,

    I understand why you were/are astonished, but don’t forget that even Liberals (well, quite a lot of them) detest Tony Abbott.

    BTW, I would be only too happy to assist you and SK with the fact-finding (island-hopping) missions.

  11. fiona
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 7:29 pm | PERMALINK
    [Mari,

    I understand why you were/are astonished, but don’t forget that even Liberals (well, quite a lot of them) detest Tony Abbott.

    BTW, I would be only too happy to assist you and SK with the fact-finding (island-hopping) missions.]

    OK you are in too, I am a very good?? tour guide especially my favourite Greek Islands, BUT only in their summer. Have been to 38 islands

  12. [fiona
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 7:29 pm | PERMALINK
    Mari,

    I understand why you were/are astonished, but don’t forget that even Liberals (well, quite a lot of them) detest Tony Abbott.]
    We have ended up on the best of terms and following each other

  13. [poroti
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 7:32 pm |]
    You have answered to my “let down” feelings, unless you are searching your library???

  14. [On #Slynews Amanda Vanstone thinks PM should have “kept” the death of her father more “private”.]

    I hope someone is keeping these gems, there is a great book in the making.

    “The great unhinging”.

  15. [ruawake
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 7:33 pm | PERMALINK
    rummie

    The cops arrested a crook, get over it.]

    oh… no outrage?, no demands for Labor sponsors to drop them?
    So jones can say nasty words and the whole left world goes bananers and a top union leaders gets nabed and charged for ripping of members and you say get over it. What else would one expect from Labor.

  16. [ No nasty words here, but charges are being laid and its dead quite in this place. ]

    Thats how it should be. It is in the process of coming before a court. Thats how the system works.

  17. [oh… no outrage?, no demands for Labor sponsors to drop them?]

    What sponsors? Stop pulling it, the equivalent is Senator Fisher.

  18. Oohmann is doing Ooh!Ooh! Williamson’s arrest is bad news for Labor, Ooh! Thomson, Oooh! Slipper, Ooh! Rares laying into Slipper, Ooh!

  19. gee bemusded your on to everything

    i used the word MISS MISS as in MS
    as i really dislike the word
    What i was saying she was not called Gilard.

    As is often the case by the media and rude people

  20. RUMMELL
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 7:29 pm | Permalink

    you are supposed to provide links.

    when you post some one elses words.

  21. fiona @3663
    Exactally what I have been hearing.
    The harder the libs go from now on with negativity and attacks on the PM the better for labor. Distaste full as that is.

  22. This little black duck

    Did Toolman mention Rares admonishing the media, especially The Age for its incorrect reporting of the Slipper stuff?

  23. [This little black duck
    Posted Thursday, October 4, 2012 at 7:35 pm | PERMALINK
    mari,

    Following each other leads to circle jerking. Careful now, ya hear!]
    I am always careful aren’t I? Have to be careful to survive on PB, especially as I see just below you Poroti has come up with another you tube to make”amends” for my let down feelings, so I had better be careful when I open this one up???

  24. Fiona:

    [Fran Barlow,

    GREAT comment on Tim Dunlop’s piece. Myriads of Gold Echidna stamps spining their way to you right now]

    Thanks Fiona, but looking back over it, there were a few typos 🙁 — so maybe just the one echidna stamp and a friendly smile. 😉

  25. ruawake@3688


    This little black duck

    Did Toolman mention Rares admonishing the media, especially The Age for its incorrect reporting of the Slipper stuff?

    Admonishing? What admonishing?!

  26. rummel

    no one is stopping you – if your outrage over Williamson isn’t faux – setting up your own petition and demanding action.

    If a 22 year old university student can do it, so can you.

    If you can’t be bothered acting, why should anyone else?

  27. Crikey Whitey (and Fran, and many others),

    I think that one of the factors that Tim Dunlop missed is that most of us have lost, or will lose, a much-loved parent. Thus Mr Jones’s utter disrespect for both Ms Gillard’s parents is something that shocks most of us.

    Yes, of course the larger issues that he mentioned are matters that should both shock and (hopefully) energise us, but Jones’s insult went directly to our own, lived experience.

    I hope – and suspect – that many people who might have less-than-progressive opinions about climate change, asylum seekers, indigenous Australians would be appalled by Jones’s comments for just that reason.

  28. CrikeyWitey:

    [I have only Koala stamps in my possession. They are green and brown, at least. You deserve them all.]

    Gosh … I’m blushing now.

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