Seat of the week: Lilley

Wayne Swan’s electorate of Lilley covers the Brisbane bayside north-east of the city centre, between the Brisbane and Pine rivers – an area accounting for industrial Eagle Farm in the south and residential Brighton in the north – along with suburbs nearer the city from McDowall, Stafford Heights and Everton Park eastwards through Kedron, Chermside and Zillmere to Nundah, Nudgee and Taigum. The redistribution before the 2010 election had a substantial impact on the electorate, adding 26,000 in Chermside West and Stafford Heights at the northern end (from Petrie) and removing a similar number of voters in an area from Clayfield and Hendra south to Hamilton on the river (to Brisbane), but the margin was little affected.

Lilley was created in 1913, originally extending from its current base of Nudgee, Aspley, Kedron, Eagle Farm and Brisbane Airport all the way north to Gympie. It did not become entirely urban until the enlargement of parliament in 1949, when Petrie was created to accommodate what were then Brisbane’s semi-rural outskirts. Labor won Lilley in 1943, 1946, 1961 and 1972 (by a margin of 35 votes on the latter occasion), but otherwise it was usually safe for the prevailing conservative forces of the day. A decisive shift came with the elections of 1980 and 1983, when Labor’s Elaine Darling won and then consolidated the seat with respective swings of 5.2% and 8.4%.

Wayne Swan succeeded Darling as the Labor member in 1993, but like all but two of his Queensland Labor colleagues he lost his seat in 1996. Swan stood again in 1998 and accounted for the 0.4% post-redistribution margin with a swing of 3.5%. He added further fat to his margin at the each of the next three elections, although in keeping with the inner urban trend his swing in 2007 was well below the statewide average (3.2% compared with 7.5%). The 2010 election delivered the LNP a swing of 4.8% that compared with a statewide result of 5.5%, bringing the seat well into the marginal zone at 3.2%.

Swan’s path into politics began as an adviser to Bill Hayden during his tenure as Opposition Leader and later to Hawke government ministers Mick Young and Kim Beazley, before he took on the position of Queensland party secretary in 1991. He was elevated to the shadow ministry after recovering his seat in 1998, taking on the family and community services portfolio, and remained close to former boss Beazley. Mark Latham famously described Swan and his associates as “roosters” when Beazley conspired to recover the leadership in 2003, but nonetheless retained him in his existing position during his own tenure in the leadership. Swan was further promoted to the Treasury portfolio after the 2004 election defeat, which he retained in government despite suggestions Rudd had been promised the position to Lindsay Tanner in return for his support when he toppled Kim Beazley as leader in December 2006.

Although he went to high school with him in Nambour and shared a party background during the Wayne Goss years, Swan has long been a bitter rival of Kevin Rudd, the former emerging as part of the AWU grouping of the Right and the latter with the Right’s “old guard”. He was in the camp opposing Rudd at successive leadership challenges, including Rudd’s successful challenge against Beazley, his toppling by Julia Gillard in June 2010, and most recently when he sought to recover the leadership in February 2012, when Swan accused Rudd of “sabotaging policy announcements and undermining our substantial economic successes”. Swan succeeded Gillard as deputy upon her ascension to the prime ministership.

Swan’s LNP opponent for the second consecutive election will be Rod McGarvie, a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper. McGarvie won a July preselection vote from a field which included John Cotter, GasFields commissioner and former head of agriculture lobby group AgForce, and Bill Gollan, owner of a Deagon car dealership.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,173 comments on “Seat of the week: Lilley”

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  4. [guytaur

    Posted Saturday, September 8, 2012 at 11:55 am | Permalink

    Mari

    Its a hard life, but someone has to do it. ]

    It is and I was the one to put my hand up for it, think I am the lucky one

  5. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 26s
    PM Gillard ‘tents are being bolted up on Nauru as we speak’ to detain #asylum seekers in if they come to Australia by boat]

    [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2m
    PM Gillard says trade in education will be a strong part of Australia’s economic future beyond the resources boom. #APEC]

    [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 4m
    PM Gillard has participated in an education forum at #APEC]

  6. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 42s
    So that means the Australian Govt will attempt to detain #asylum seekers on Nauru and PNG for as long as they might expect to wait in Indo.]

    [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 1m
    PM Gillard says the agreements with Nauru and PNG ‘acquits the no advantage principle’ outlined in Houston. #asylum]

  7. It would be even nicer if the young lady he was accused of sexually assaulting came out just before the election and outed him. With his already appalling dissatisfaction figures that would just about sink him.

    She would need to make that decision taking into account what what is best for herself. The resultant media scrutiny and exposure, of herself and her family,to the rightwing ferkwits who are vocal and intimidating, including the shockjocks, is a real consideration. I believe from what I have read the lady in question just wants to be leave it be.

  10. spur212

    Howard won enough support to be elected four times by handing out middle class welfare and dog whistling on our xenophobic tendencies. He finally lost because of the time factor and work choices. It was as basic as that

  11. It would be even nicer if the young lady he was accused of sexually assaulting came out just before the election and outed him.

    I disagree.

    This fascination with politicians’ ancient history is not healthy.

    Of course the door for this stupidity was pushed wider by the recent focus on Julia Gillard’s past, and a bit of turn about for Tony Abbott is reasonable, BUT Tony Abbott should be criticized for the fact he is unsuitable now to be prime minister, not stuff that he may or may not have done 30 years ago.

    The more the press tear apart people’s past, well before their current political lives, the more it deters real people from getting into politics. Who would put their hand up when every last indiscretion or dodginess from decades in your past can legitimately be dragged through the MSM?

    Focus on who people are now and what they are proposing and doing in politics now, not what was in their dim distant past.

  14. Watched all of the 24 russian PM presser, streets ahead of any presser abbott ever gives.

    Also has the worst media in my lifetime ,fully covered with their inane questions.

  16. sprocket @ 25,

    [With the SMH and Marr giving this time in Abbott’s life oxygen, more may come out. And there is a lot more.]

    There sure is – unfortunately almost none of it publishable on a family-friendly blog 😉

    Ho hum, back to the assignments.

  17. Abbott history simply repeats. Late 70s, lost SRC election to a woman, went berserk. 2010, Lost another election a woman, went total berserk

  18. fiona,

    I was chatting to Chris Murphy on Twitter and he said that there is a much bigger story to be had on Tony than Tony’s assault charges.

  19. Jackol

    I agree with your perspective. But the msm and the coalition have painted the PM as untrustworthy, and resurrected her work as a Solicitor which involved a personal relationship from 20 plus years ago. Remember St Paul said that the questions need to be answered because it was a question of “character”. I would ask St Paul if the question of character is so important. It is now encumbent on him to ask questions of Abbott. Dont you think?

  20. SK,

    [Thanks for the reminder that everything that I take for granted as normal, was won by women who stood up and fought for the rights we have today.]

    and we must never forget how quickly those rights can be taken away.

    OPT, I dips me lid.

  21. SMH property op-ed journalist trying his best to talk up the market for Spring, against the best efforts of his dreary, politics-obsessed colleagues:

    [Opinion: A better spring than last year
    We have seen some encouraging results in the past few weekends indicating we are shaping up for a much better spring than last year.

    The figures might be below the long-term average but there are signs many buyers see an upswing in the market and are making a move.

    The problem is too many vendors have been conditioned that the current market is not good for sellers creating a lack of stock in many suburbs.

    They lack confidence in the broader economy.

    But people who are listing their home at the right price are selling fast.

    http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/opinion-a-better-spring-than-last-year-20120908-25knp.html ]

  22. Victoria, as I said a bit of turn about is perhaps fair enough, but I didn’t think it was appropriate to be trawling over Julia Gillard’s past and to be consistent I therefore don’t think it’s appropriate to be trawling over Tony Abbott’s past.

    Again, Tony Abbott can and should be demolished simply based upon his current performance as LOTO; all his lies, all his walking-both-sides-over-every-issue, his ridiculous negativity, his lack of respect for any institution (in a so-called conservative politician!) that happens to stand in the way of making a political point.

    Why does the MSM need to go near his past to construct a picture of who Tony Abbott is now?

  23. The previously linked article by Michael Gordon contains this:

    Gillard was reflecting on the good and bad of her own education, at Adelaide’s Unley High in the 1970s, when she referred in passing to the one girl with a disability at the school, who tended to be shunned by the high-achievers and lived a lonely life.

    ”I have frequently reproached myself for not spending more time with her,” Gillard volunteered, adding that, even at good schools like hers, those earmarked for success were ”streamed” while the rest were ”stigmatised”.

    ”I was in the top class, others were in classes routinely and cruelly referred to as ‘vegie class’. We were marked for success – they were marked for failure,” she told the National Press Club. ”From my earliest years, the life-changing unfairness of being denied a great education has struck me as a moral wrong. For me, eradicating that moral wrong is what drove me into politics and drives me still.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/is-this-the-beginning-of-a-gillard-revival-20120907-25jwr.html#ixzz25qDEYKyr

    This is the sort of rubbish pumped out by Joan Kirner as Education Minister in Victoria.

    It is no good pretending that all kids are destined for the top level of academic achievement. They are not, and to pretend they are is a cruel hoax.

    Kids who are not in the top academic tier will find success in life in other ways and there is nothing wrong with aspiring to a skilled trade or other occupation.

    We can’t all be brain surgeons, rocket scientists or high flying lawyers.

  24. [School fees could rise by 10pc under NSW cuts ]

    [The New South Wales Government is considering a significant cut to education funding which could see private school fees rise by up to 10 per cent.]

    This could see some very interesting movements in the polls.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-08/nsw-government-cuts-could-force-private-school-fee-hike/4250098

    Coupled with Abbott federal cuts to education (should that day ever come) we would see quality education as something that only the very well off could afford. I guess that would keep all of the common working/middle class riff raff out of the better jobs for a generation or two.

  25. Oter items from the SMH Property section:

    [ * Sellers hope styling brings a strong result
    * The house with no bills
    * How to pay off your mortgage super fast
    * Sustainable way to avoid bill shock ]

    It’s up-beat, full of hope and having a go… defeating the gloom.

    Meanwhile over at the economics pages:

    [* China slowdown turn’s off Swan’s money tap
    * Wall Street US cap winning week despite weak jobs report
    * Weak US jobs report deals blow to Obama
    * Glencore sweetens Xstrata bid to salvage deal
    * Qantas rating cut moves airline closer to junk status
    * Mirvac ups pressure on Tinkler
    * High Court sends Optus web appeal back to MPs
    * Michael West It’s a ‘dog eat blog’ world out there
    * Tony Webber Qantas alliance strategy staunches its bleeding
    * Marcus Padley Only 250,624 hours left! It’s time to prioritise
    * Malcolm Maiden Just what doctor ordered for Europe, for now ]

  26. Jackol

    Agreed.

    I watched the DNC this week, and the speeches all emphasised the past of the candidates. Of course, any negative stuff was not put forward, but the past history of the candidate was front and centre to confirm their character. I personally dont like the direction of Our politics following the US. It is a bad precedent.

  28. [We can’t all be brain surgeons, rocket scientists or high flying lawyers.]
    EXCUSE ME!?

    Psehops very clearly explained 2 nights ago that we are all blank slates. That everyone is perfectly capable of becoming brain surgeons, rocket scientists or high flying lawyers if we simply receive enough education.

    You need to be fully aware that you are completely contradicting Psephos’ Marxist theory of human development.

  29. bemused

    The govt is not putting forward the argument that everyone has to be. A brain surgeon.
    For a Labor person, you have an extremely elitist attitude about education

  30. [I watched the DNC this week, and the speeches all emphasised the past of the candidates. ]
    The DNC was about 7.978900 trillion times more inspiring than Labor conferences.

  31. “Bendigo would benefit from a government which delivers lower taxes, better services, stronger borders and modern infrastructure,” Mr Abbott said.

    Sounds like the Gillard Labor Government to me(except for ‘stronger’ I’d substitute ‘secure’). 😀

    Off to do me bit at the local hall, handing out HTVs. See you down the track. 🙂

  33. The best speech at the DNC was by Bill Clinton. He clearly laid out what the rethugs are doing with the budget and how it will affect the citizenry, and he contrasted it with the democrats position.

  35. @MikeSeccombe: Had a lovely chat with David Marr about the Mad Monk. Settle back with a cuppa though; it’s longish….  http://t.co/gG6yaKGd

  36. bemused
    Are you familiar with the ideas of Vygotsky on Education? I just came across him this semester in my studies. While the West was developing education principles on people like Piaget, Vygotsky provided the foundation for that in the Soviet Union particulary, in special education as we called it.

    Vygotsky was all about recognising where kids were at and where they could get and providing ‘scaffolding’ (by teachers, peers etc) to reach that level.

    I prefer kids talents to be identified and those talents be supported for development while providing a general level of education and the opportunity to address weakness. It costs money and means a lot of resources including staff numbers.

    But it is only money. I wish everyone would just take a deep breath and realise it is only money. We are not a poor nation. We could find it if we wanted it and reap the rewards in the future.

  37. Maybe a clued-up techie-cum-economist can help me out on this one on the NBN.

    The Warrnambool Standard today is running a piece quoting from Prof Michael Porter claiming NBN is a huge waste of money. He’s claiming that some sort of hybrid of the existing system and the G4 would be more effective for mobile access. And that the NBN will stifle competition, which all seems to run contrary to everything (other than OO propaganda) that I’ve read.

    I’ll take his claims on, especially on the part he seems to be ignoring which is the national access for distance and remote areas and the levelling of costs which is a huge access advantage for all those living outside the high-density areas of Melbourne-Sydney-Brisbane.

    But I don’t know enough about his technical claims, which I suspect are doubtful.

    I’m working, but will check later tonight if any poster can give me some info.

    Cheers
    GD

  38. http://chirgwin.blogspot.com.au/2012/09/wef-dressing-political-polling-as.html

    [Friday, September 07, 2012
    WEF dressing political polling as “research”

    I won’t try to re-critique Bernard Keane’s excellent work at Crikey (http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/09/07/world-economic-forum-turns-its-forensic-gaze-on-competition/ but registration required) pulling apart the “thick, thick, thicket-thick from Thicksville, Thickania” report from the World Economic Forum.

    Instead, a question: why, in spite of the report’s glaring flaws of methodology, does anyone take it seriously?

    The obvious lacunae in the report – praise for the governmental and judicial institutions in the corruption-ridden, violent, misogynist and theocratic oil states stands out as WTF moments – are blithely skipped over by politicians with a point to score.

    ………………….

    The only appropriate response to the WEF’s report is to laugh and point. But because it’s the WEF, and the world’s entire cohort of business journalists – that is, stenographers of corporate announcements and worshipful acolytes of a ten-thousand-dollar suit – should be laughing. But they won’t: the number of business journalists in any country who aren’t either doe-eyed worshippers or advertorial captives could be counted without anyone pulling down their trousers to get to “twenty-one”. ]
    The original report got quoted in the Oz, the SMH & Business Spectator. I quick Google search shows it turned up in papers around the world, taking it B.S. ranking seriously.

  39. GD

    Forward article of claims to Delimiter.com.au and Senator Conroys office. The latter will probably be keen to help you out on questions.

  42. bemused

    yet again, the elitist approach.

    Education is not and should not be simply about academic achievement.

    It should also prepare people for life; it should expose them to a wide range of viewpoints and teach them to respect others.

    I remember one mixed ability group of four I had working on writing a story together. Three of them were high academic achievers, one wasn’t. But he came up with the best ideas for stories, and in exchange (it was a group project, after all) they helped him out with his spelling.

    The benefits of that continued long after the particular project was finished.

    In real life, most of the work we do relies on a team effort. It means understanding the strengths and weaknesses of our team members and finding a place for them.

    If you’ve only ever mixed with the ‘good kids’ you’re going to struggle to do that, just as people who’ve gone to single sex schools often struggle in their dealings with the opposite sex.

    An elitist approach to education might have worked forty years ago, but it’s no longer relevant or useful.

    And that wasn’t a veiw Kirner arrived at by herself, btw. It was – and is – the view of education experts, backed up by countless studies on how children learn and how that equips them for later life.

    As one educational text I read said, education is one of the areas where we do the most research and least apply the results, mainly because of the roadblocks to reform created by people whose see education through the prism of their own individual experiences, rather than on an understanding of how learning happens and the kind of learners we need in a modern society.

  44. [ShowsOn

    It was a wankfest]
    WRONG! It made the average Labor conference look like a bunch of amateurs.

    I don’t mean the glitz of it either.

  46. My 90 year old mother showed me a funny Tea Towel she has. It shows up the whingers of ” Poor me , what about me ” so hard done by , but I cannot cut and paste it here due to my poor computer skills , but have put on twitter under Lordbarrybonkto . Due to twitter being tight wads with title , i had to drop the N.

  47. puff

    the best classes I have are the ones where students are encouraged to identify areas for improvement and plan their own programs to do so.

    The scaffolding is provided – I give them a few tests to determine areas where they could improve, we discuss the results, and I provide materials to help them, and monitor their progress.

    Once they know what they’re doing, it’s one of the easiest classes I take, even though everyone is working on work usually perceived as ‘boring’ – spelling, punctuation, grammar.

    That’s because every kid in the room knows exactly why it is they’re doing the work. Every one wants to do better. I don’t have to go around forcing kids to work, because they’re all motivated.

    All I need to do is make sure the work’s provided, and help out where needed.

  48. [Space Kidette
    Posted Saturday, September 8, 2012 at 11:17 am | Permalink
    Darn,

    True. We should not forget their support.

    In my own case I have a Maltese Dad. The youngest of five and he hated the life his catholic sisters were confined to. Our family lineage included many, many nuns and priests (lucky they had plenty of kids or I wouldn’t be here!) so there was a lot of pressure to toe the ‘family and religious conventions’.

    He was determined that I be allowed to be whatever I chose to be. And for a Dad, it must have been very hard because I chose to fly planes, race cars, motorbikes and work in male dominated fields. When I started in IT in a technical jobs for women program I was the only female in my field for many, many years.

    I then went on to run one of the country’s motorsport events, regularly having to pull 90 very cheeky, hedonistic blokes into line, some of them world champions and my father, sat silently by, cheering me on the outside, but totally afraid it that being the only woman, it could all go pear-shaped for me.

    It wasn’t until I had my first son, when I told my Dad I was afraid of failing with him, he told me that he had always been afraid that I’d fail because I “refused convention, refused to be afraid and refused to embrace anything except the possibilities.” He said it scared him shitless. He said it was like watching me walk the high wire without a net.

    He also told me that he knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that any kids I had were in safe hands.

    Thanks Dad, there really was always a safety net – you!]

    SK

    A very touching tribute to your dad. Thank you for sharing that with us.

    BTW It’s no wonder you call yourself Space Kidette. I reckon given half a chance you would have been right there with Neil Armstrong on the moon.

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