UPDATE: Essential Research has primary votes unchanged on last week, at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has resulted in an increase in the Coalition’s two-party lead from 56-44 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on power prices, with 37% thinking power companies most responsible against 28% for the federal government and 23% for state governments; price increases under the carbon tax, which 52% (including 68% of Coalition voters) say they have noticed and 36% say they haven’t; and the various aspects of the Houston report recommendations, which find very strong support for limiting the ways boat arrivals can bring their families to Australia, opinion divided on increasing the humanitarian program and strong opposition to the Malaysia solution, but strong approval for implementing them all as per the new government policy.
Page covers the north-eastern corner of New South Wales, outside of the northernmost coastal stretch from Byron Bay to the Queensland border which constitutes Richmond. Its main population centres are Ballina on the coast, Lismore and Casino further inland, and Grafton in the south. Labor’s strongest area is Lismore, with the remainder generally leaning slightly to the Nationals. With a median age of 44, the electorate is second only to Lyne as the oldest in Australia, and it ranks in the bottom ten on all measures of income. There are correspondingly low numbers of mortgage payers and high numbers of unemployed, along with the fifth lowest proportion of residents whose main language is other than English.
Page was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984, from an area which had historically been divided between Richmond and Cowper. It was won in 1984 by Ian Robinson, who had held Cowper for the National/Country Party since 1963. Like his party leader Charles Blunt in neighbouring Richmond, Robinson was a surprise casualty of the 1990 election, when he was unseated by a 5.2% swing to Labor’s Harry Woods. Woods held on by 193 votes in 1993 before inevitably going out with the tide in 1996. The seat was then held for the Nationals throughout the Howard years by Ian Causley, who had previously been the state member for Clarence – which Harry Woods then proceeded to win at the by-election to fill his vacancy.
Page did not swing greatly on Causley’s watch, but the Nationals benefited from redistributions which added 1.0% to the margin in 2001 and 1.3% in 2007. This did not avail them when Causley retired at the 2007 election, with Labor’s Janelle Saffin picking up a 7.8% swing to defeat Nationals candidate Chris Gulaptis (now the member for Clarence after retaining the seat for the Nationals at a November 2011 by-election). In swing terms, Saffin achieved the best result of any Labor member in New South Wales at the 2010 election by picking up a swing of 2.5%, the only other seats in the state to record pro-Labor swings being Robertson (0.9%), Dobell (1.2%) and Eden-Monaro (1.9%).
Saffin was a Lismore-based member of the state upper house from 1995 until the 2003 state election, when she withdrew from preselection after it became apparent she would not retain a winnable position on the ticket. In the period between her two spells in politics, she resumed work as a human rights lawyer and then took up a position in East Timor in 2006 as adviser to Jose Ramos Horta. Saffin publicly supported Kevin Rudd during his leadership challenge in February 2012. The Nationals have again nominated their candidate from 2010, Clunes businessman and farmer Kevin Hogan, who won preselection ahead of Clarence Valley mayor Richie Williamson.
bemused
Dont you think the Libs making the first move would be best?
Confessions
If he regained the leadership, he’d have a lot of political capital to play with (and I mean a lot). It would also repudiate a lot of the people who tried to bury him in February i.e if they decided to try and take him down again, he’d make hay out of it.
As for his record, Ken Henry sure gave him a lot of praise on the GFC response. As did Bill Clinton (he said he was one of the smartest world leaders). His work habits and the way he treated his colleagues are definitely an issue he needs to address but all PM’s have their issues. Keating was accused of similar things in regards to work habits when he was PM if I recall correctly.
ShowsOn
Excellent discussion with Mod Lib on carbon pricing last night… very well argued.
Abbott reckons taxes will kill off Olympic Dam expansion.
Ah. Tooooony. Which state govt The got olympic dam project?
Here is a hint -A
Still have not got it? Try AL
Alright. I will tell you Phone?
THE ALP secured th3 Olympic Dam project. You pillock.
bemused,
I might have agreed with you a few months ago but there has been a discernable shift, what that might lead to one can only guess, but I honestly think Abbott is beating himself down at the moment (not sure I can credit labor with it).
If he continues making a bigger liar and tool of himself, I think Abbott might be the architect of his own demise.
BH. water off a ducks back for me. i’m post grad in investment management fields etc etc, have written research and strategy stuff for boards etc. so i know what i can do. just don’t think i have to be writing like that in all situations.
as you say, what is more important than how.
[As soon as one party changes leaders, the other will be bound to follow or be left behind.]
If either party changed leader (which I don’t think will happen), the leader of the other party would be triumphantly vindicated and their grip would be strengthened.
Using a phone t9 post so please excuse typos
Abbott says carbon tax BOO
SK
Abbott does not behave like someone ready to lose the leadership.
bemused
I didn’t say the trends were going “very well”. I said “well”. You misquoted me. I actually meant to say “encouraging” but left my original to see what response there would be.
In the circumstance, any slight upturn in Labor and downturn in Green is “encouraging”, I think. After all, we’re starting from a very low point.
victoria,
No, he behaves like he has it in the bag – huge mistake.
I hope they are not wasting any of our good SA wines on this dork.
victoria
yes, the tightening up of credit is one of the reasons why (despite the evidence we live in good economic times) people feel hard done by at present.
They don’t understand that they couldn’t really ‘afford’ that overseas holiday they paid for through an equity loan five years ago – all they understand is that they could get the money to go then and they can’t now.
(I am speaking from personal experience here: we applied for a loan last year that, prior to the GFC, we would have obtained no questions asked – $400k in equity against a request for $25k, unblemished repayment history, no change to repayments as it was a ‘top up’ for the mortgage etc – and were knocked back…even though we ‘understood’ the reasoning, it didn’t stop the niggling resentment.
Ironically enough, one of the conditions of ‘getting’ the loan was that we were to reduce our credit card limit…a couple of days ago we got a phone call asking if we wanted to increase it by 50%).
[ it would be interesting to see how a return to those kind of leveraging ratios would chnage the consumption patterns of the yoof.]
MM – the Banks might not like it but it would be easier on the kids in the long run – inflated house pricing might slow down.
SK
Abbott is doing hubris writ large.
Thank for the donation Schnappi.
Posted Friday, August 17, 2012 at 7:54 pm | Permalink
Meguire Bob back a while:
no matter how much the anti gillard or coalition supporters harp on the opinion polls which never are hardly correct in predicting elections a year out of an election , when an governemnt is only in its 2nd term
As it happens the predictive record of polls a year out for 2nd term governments specifically is bad:
Menzies 54- way behind a year out, won Whitlam 75 – way behind a year out, sacked Fraser 83 – way behind a year out, won Hawke 87 – ahead a year out, won Howard 01 – behind a year out, won
But the second-term governments that won from behind a year out were all Liberal. (I think Chifley would have been ahead a year out of the 1946 election which he won; he was well ahead seven months out.)
For all governments 1949-present:
ahead a year out: 9 wins 0 losses (Labor 4 wins Coalition 5 wins) – or perhaps it would be better to call 2010 a draw more or less level a year out: 6 wins 2 losses (Labor 1 win 1 loss Coalition 5 wins 1 loss) behind a year out: 5 wins 4 losses* (Labor 1 win 2 losses* Coalition 4 wins 2 losses).
Posted Friday, August 17, 2012 at 7:54 pm | Permalink
Meguire Bob back a while:
no matter how much the anti gillard or coalition supporters harp on the opinion polls which never are hardly correct in predicting elections a year out of an election , when an governemnt is only in its 2nd term
As it happens the predictive record of polls a year out for 2nd term governments specifically is bad:
Menzies 54- way behind a year out, won Whitlam 75 – way behind a year out, sacked Fraser 83 – way behind a year out, won Hawke 87 – ahead a year out, won Howard 01 – behind a year out, won
But the second-term governments that won from behind a year out were all Liberal. (I think Chifley would have been ahead a year out of the 1946 election which he won; he was well ahead seven months out.)
For all governments 1949-present:
ahead a year out: 9 wins 0 losses (Labor 4 wins Coalition 5 wins) – or perhaps it would be better to call 2010 a draw more or less level a year out: 6 wins 2 losses (Labor 1 win 1 loss Coalition 5 wins 1 loss) behind a year out: 5 wins 4 losses* (Labor 1 win 2 losses* Coalition 4 wins 2 losses).
Posted Friday, August 17, 2012 at 7:54 pm | Permalink
Meguire Bob back a while:
no matter how much the anti gillard or coalition supporters harp on the opinion polls which never are hardly correct in predicting elections a year out of an election , when an governemnt is only in its 2nd term
As it happens the predictive record of polls a year out for 2nd term governments specifically is bad:
Menzies 54- way behind a year out, won Whitlam 75 – way behind a year out, sacked Fraser 83 – way behind a year out, won Hawke 87 – ahead a year out, won Howard 01 – behind a year out, won
But the second-term governments that won from behind a year out were all Liberal. (I think Chifley would have been ahead a year out of the 1946 election which he won; he was well ahead seven months out.)
For all governments 1949-present:
ahead a year out: 9 wins 0 losses (Labor 4 wins Coalition 5 wins) – or perhaps it would be better to call 2010 a draw more or less level a year out: 6 wins 2 losses (Labor 1 win 1 loss Coalition 5 wins 1 loss) behind a year out: 5 wins 4 losses* (Labor 1 win 2 losses* Coalition 4 wins 2 losses).
(* losses includes Whitlam (sacked))
Of those showing the government ahead or behind that’s 13 correct 5 incorrect for all governments (counting the sacking as a loss), including 6 correct 1 incorrect for Labor. And of the governments that won from behind a year out, o
(* losses includes Whitlam (sacked))
ORIGINALPOST. KEVIN BONHAM
PAGE137. HEADING. ESS.POLLING FRIDA Y17. Aug 2012
Of those showing the government ahead or behind that’s 13 correct 5 incorrect for all governments (counting the sacking as a loss), including 6 correct 1 incorrect for Labor. And of the governments that won from behind a year out, o
(* losses includes Whitlam (sacked))
Of those showing the government ahead or behind that’s 13 correct 5 incorrect for all governments (counting the sacking as a loss), including 6 correct 1 incorrect for Labor. And of the governments that won from behind a year out, o
rummel
All done, and tweeted tp my followers,if even get one to donate all helps
confessions @ 84
So looking at the polls as they were with Rudd vs how they are with Gillard, are they a pretty picture with Gillard?
BH. spot on BH. and less cash to spend on pills and booze and tatts and tans!
Spur posted
2 Posted Saturday, August 18, 2012 at 9:49 am | Permalink
Confessions
The only thing I’ve seen that was hard was Kevin Bonham tracking the Menzies government in the early 50′s to with where things are currently. It was quite an interesting graph but he added that it’s often much harder for progressive governments to effect such a turnaround. Besides that, it tends to be intuitive projecting of what might happen rather than anything hard
Tony Abbott is telling lies again at the SA Lib Conf and getting warm applauds
zoomster
True, but There has been a big surge in Australians travelling overseas. The data confirms it, but on a personal level, i know countless friends and family who have travelled recently and intend to return soon again. Our high dollar has something to do with it.
BH,
I think the real cost of over extended credit in all its forms has been the housing bubble we are currently in. We should consider ourselves lucky it didn’t burst like it did in the US and we’ve been able to ease it down to a degree.
I have a different take on deposits. No deposits loans should be fine – on the proviso that the repayments are no more than 25% of total income. This simple provision means that you are able to make the payments.
victoria,
If those two thought leaders, Oakes and Mega are calling Abbott out, I don’t think it will be too long before the rest of the press gallery sheep follow. Question is CAN Abbott change his spots – I don’t think so.
I wince everytime one of the media pack come out with the above.
If the so called * best journalists in the business still cluster in the federal parliament * and they haven’t, can’t or won’t work out that that approach works to devastating negative effect on their own occupation, industry and just about everything else in our society it will end up being ashes in the mouths of us all.
Once such an attitude takes hold its near impossible to turn off as we have seen with “entitlements”.
SK
Abbott did not change his MO this week at all. His performance in QT was groundhog day.
The strategy has worked so far, and he figures if it aint broke……
victoria @ 101
Why? It makes no real difference in the longer term.
So. Spurr. Cherry picked
Spur do you know how depressing
U. Make one feel with. Your posts
Pplease spill the. Beans about your motives
For bei g so
Personaly. I. Had enough.
I. Scroll by
But. Then. Noticed u. Did tell tne whole story of mr bonham post
So i Posted. It again, i. Enjoyed reading. It now others. Can
Saturday Extra with Geraldine Doogue was interesting this morning. Some bloke said that Canadians are investing in our super funds because Oz is considered the place to invest. What was it Abbott, Robb & Hockey were saying the other day about nobody wanting to invest here til there’s a change of govt.!
The bloke also said wttethat people looking in from the outside can’t understand why our polls are so bad for the Govt. when the economy is simply the best.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/overseas-investment/4205848
Doogue also had a bloke checking out her home to help cut power costs. Suggested a master switch to turn off everything on ‘stand by’ (my kids could do with that) and he noticed that her solar panels were 40-50% shaded by the neighbour’s roof and needed shifting. Her bill for 2 people in the home was enormous.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/energy-audit/4202456
victoria,
I’m happy if Abbott stays. He is the secret weapon for the ALP!
victoria
oh yes – and the exchange rate makes me itch to get over there!
I only used an OS holiday as an example – you can insert ‘new speed boat’, ‘house renovations’ etc instead…
bemused
If you cannot see what difference it makes, you are not paying attention at all
[I believe that reducing the number of homes one person can own should be researched as a way of keeping housing affordable.]
You know, you really do get to read WACKO stuff here sometimes.
You want to make housing more affordable?
EASY!
Two things:
1. Release more land.
2. Abolish capital gains tax on other investments i.e. exclude residential property.
SK
the housing bubble is a real puzzler. When I was on council, valuers were telling us ten years ago that the market was vastly over priced, they’d never seen anything like it, and it was unsustainable. But even the GFC hasn’t hit it that hard.
I keep waiting for the correction but it doesn’t seem to be about to happen.
zoomster
What has been interesting is that everyone who travels overseas, comes back with the same story. Gee things are bad for the locals.
My award for quote of the week goes to:
[Morgan Freeman @MorgonFreeman
I hate the word homophobia. It’s not a phobia. You are not scared. You are an asshole. ]
SK
Brilliant!
bemused
[If you think those trends are going very well then you are obviously a closet noalition supporter.]
Misquote then insulting me. That really is a silly comment when there is nothing I have ever posted that suggests I would vote for that rabble.
[I have a different take on deposits. No deposits loans should be fine – on the proviso that the repayments are no more than 25% of total income. This simple provision means that you are able to make the payments.]
SK – Agree with that. Missed that in your previous post but anything which helps people avoid the awful mess that comes with overcommitment needs to be considered.
Vic,
There is no 20% minimum deposit for first home buyers or anyone buying a home. However, Banks usually insist on 5% genuine savings for purchasers. (Evidence that the clent has 5% of the purchase price in a genuine savings account).
Lenders will advance up to 97% of a purchase price in some instances. The important criteria for the Lenders is the ability to settle the transaction on the day (including stamp duty, transfer fees and legals etc which add about 5% to the value of a transaction) and the ability to service the loan debt.
As you may be aware the Federal Government has the FHOG of $7k to help first home buyers. In some states there is also other relief for the first home buyers (in WA they waive the Stamp duty).
What is true is that for purchases where the loan to value ratio is greater than 80% there is a fee called Lenders Mortgage Insurance which is the Banks insuring themselves against the client defaulting. This is a sliding scale that increases as the LVR increases and can add many thousands to a transaction.
Victoria you won’t like this from Ken Henry and the new Treasury Secretary, they see things going the other way. Mind you they don’t have elections to win or voters or the media to take with them –
Full article – http://www.smh.com.au/business/henry-lives-big-new-taxes-coming–some-day-20120817-24cl1.html#ixzz23r41RQyQ
sk @ 106
Discernible shift? Where?
Look at possums latest trend graphs and point out the shift to me.
It isn’t there. It exists in the wishful thinking of some on PB.
zoomster,
It is happening. Between increased wages and stagnant and decreased housing prices (homes here have dropped dramatically over the past 2 yrs) the gap is closing.
Don’t you just love fact over the Oppn’s fiction
[Their analysis found the market expected a one-off jump in inflation of between 0.6 per cent and 0.7 per cent followed by a return to the previous rate, as forecast by the government. It did not support claims by the Coalition spokesman, Greg Hunt, that price rises would “take time to flow through the economy” or that “this is just the beginning as the carbon tax goes up every year”.
The first TD Securities-Melbourne Institute inflation reading since the start of the tax showed a total price increase for the month of just 0.2 per cent, even after accounting for a rise in electricity prices of 14.9 per cent and in household gas prices of 10.3 per cent.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/coalition-carbon-tax-claims-deflated-20120817-24dqt.html#ixzz23r50sTh2
Rummel – done – sorry it couldn’t be more.
Psephos @ 107
Yep, sure.
Gillard would stack up real well against Turnbull.
Centre
[1. Release more land.]
That’s been tried in Victoria (don’t know about others). Doesn’t work.
bemused,
Not everything is measured in poll terms and if they are it is not necessarily immediately measurable.
There has been a shift that I and other people have commented on. I personally can’t point to a single silver bullet as to why, but there has been a shift.
spur212:
It is very unlikely that Rudd will lead the ALP again because of the problems his leadership caused the govt. I think you need to accept this and start focusing on the problems at hand.