GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
• ReachTel published results from an automated phone poll of 644 respondents in Andrew Wilkie’s seat of Denison, which showed Wilkie well placed with 40% of the primary vote (compared with 21.3% at the 2010 election) to 28% for the Liberals (22.6%), 17% for Labor (35.8%) and 14% for the Greens (19.0%), panning out to a 65-35 win over Liberal after preferences. However, a Labor internal poll of 400 respondents reported by Matthew Denholm in The Australian had very different results: 23% for Wilkie, 26% for Labor, 31% for the Liberals and 17% for the Greens. Peter Brent at Mumble considered the likely wash-up after preferences, which – despite the roughly 10% swing in Labor-versus-Liberal terms – was as it was at the 2010 election: Wilkie would win if Greens and other preferences allowed him to overtake Liberal and/or Labor, but otherwise preferences from him and the Greens would deliver Labor a comfortable victory. The poll was also said to show Denison voters giving Julia Gillard a strong lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, of 51% to 26%. Anne Mather of The Mercury reports mental health policy adviser Jane Austin is assured of Labor preselection in Denison after winning the endorsement of the Left. The preselection will be officially confirmed at the party’s state conference in August.
• The Nationals have conducted their preselection for Rob Oakeshott’s seat of Lyne, again choosing their unsuccessful candidate from 2010, Port Macquarie gastroenterologist David Gillespie, from a field of five candidates.
• The Nationals have also conducted their preselection for the north coast NSW seat of Page, held for Labor by Janelle Saffin on a margin of 4.2%, choosing Clunes businessman and farmer Kevin Hogan over Clarence Valley mayor Richie Williamson.
• The Parramatta Advertiser reports that Martin Zaiter, a 29-year-old partner in a local accountancy firm, has won Liberal preselection for Parramatta. The unsuccessful candidates included Charles Camenzuli, who ran in 2010. Julie Owens holds the seat for Labor on a margin of 4.4%.
• Accumulating political difficulties for Mal Brough have refocused attention on the Liberal National Party preselection for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, for which nominations close tomorrow. The most widely mentioned alternative contender has been Peta Simpson, director of Maroochydore recruitment agency New Staff Solutions.
• Brett Worthington of the Bendigo Advertiser reports Jack Lyons of Lyons Constructions, business owner and teacher Peter Wiseman and transport business owner Greg Bickley have nominated for Liberal preselection in Bendigo, where Labor members Steve Gibbons will retire at the next election. An earlier report in the Bendigo Advertiser reported Anita Donlon, an activist for anti-carbon tax group the Consumers and Taxpayers Association and candidate for Bendigo West at the state election, was weighing up whether to nominate.
• ABC Newcastle reports Troy Jurd, a director with the NSW Department of Corrective Services Troy Jurd, Greta heart surgeon Duncan Thompson and Upper Hunter councillor Michael Johnsen will contest Liberal preselection for Hunter, which Joel Fitzgibbon holds for Labor on a margin of 12.5%.
• Ken McGregor of The Advertiser reports the SA Liberal Party state council will meet on July 27 to determine a replacement for outgoing Senator Mary Jo Fisher. Kate Raggatt, a former staffer to Nick Minchin, has backing from her old old boss’s Right faction and has been widely discussed as a front-runner, but Michael Owen of The Australian reports that her membership has lapsed, and factional rivalries will make it difficult for her to win the waiver she will need from state executive in order to nominate. The other front-runner is said to be moderate-backed Anne Ruston, owner of a Riverland flower-growing business. Serial aspirant Maria Kourtesis has ruled herself out, saying she wishes to stay focused on the state seat of Bright, which she narrowly failed to win from Labor at the 2010 state election. Still circulating as possible candidates are “Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu and Chris Moriarty” UPDATE: The ABC reports the nominees are Bev Barber, Gary Burgess, Greg Mayfield, Kate Raggatt, Anne Ruston and Marijka Ryan.
I hope that Senator Feeney doesn’t snag a lower house seat in future – sorry Psephos, but I fail to see what Feeney has added to the ALP in a constructive sense.
A missing and peace breaks out on PB…
Why are italics called italics?
Is it because Romans always leant to the right?
Peleton closing early after coming close to a big misjudgement last night. Also last chance for a while for the sprinters, so a big day.
[Therese Rein on what her husband might do in future:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rein-were-still-ready-to-serve-20120706-21mpj.html%5D
As if we needed to see they have an active interest in keeping the RUDDSTORATION stuff alive on polling weekends. 😛
[Is it because Romans always leant to the right?]
Way to deep for me ….
I wish that the ALP would hurry up and Ruddstore its KRudd,
If only for shutting up a few people around here :devil:
Murdoch Tabloid in trouble in Melbourne
It;s readers “of modest income ” don’t like the paywall..and it’s membership has stalled
__________________
http://www.theage.com.au/national/readers-go-and-so-does-an-editor-20120706-21mot.html
“I don’t think much of your former boss and I don’t think much of Shorten.”
Both suffer from their union pasts and their reputations as machine men. I think both are in fact very talented politicians with strong commitments to good policy. I wouldn’t have worked for Feeney for four years if I didn’t think that. Shorten will be Leader sooner or later so you’d better get to like him.
“I think Conroy has done a great job with the NBN and respect him for that. I also think highly of Combet, Wong, Roxon, Albo and in spite of certain events, Swan.”
I entirely agree with that, although I think Albo now has either to support his Leader or resign. He’s been given a lot of indulgence.
“I think Gillard is finished and it is just a matter of time.”
That may be so, but it may not. I’m not being a blind loyalist, I have said that Gillard made some terrible mistakes, but I think this is still an open question. But even if it is true, going back to Rudd is not the solution.
Rudd was undermined and back stabbed by a corrupt factional mafia whose major focus is their own power.
Poor little cockroaches didn’t like Rudd stamping on their power. And so more than a year before hand and is foreshadowed by our little American spy the undermining of Rudd began.
And of course Swan and Gillard made it very clear he had to shelve the CPRS or face loss of support, and of course one of their side immediately leaked same to the media in an effort to undermine Rudd further. Gillard being the one who wanted the thing shelved permanently.
Now lacking no basis at all to betray and back stabb Rudd, the low lives needed to create further cause after the event, thus the intensive extensive smear and character assassination of him by the factional mafia boys and their underlings, which of course has to continue to this day since the Australian public want him as PM, and certainly want Gillard disposed of.
The group of morons that back stabbed Rudd came within an inch of losing the election and having themselves culled from the party, I imagine this makes them hate Rudd more since he shows them up to be little small minded people.
OH how that same group who thought they were so clever in plotting a coup to regain factional powers must now hate Rudd with extreme passion. Their plot was stupid, the Australian public know it for what it was, and now you can draw a line from 2010 to now.
The Australian public have unfinished business with the back stabbing gillard & those faceless men, and are will to endure Abbott to have that payment made.
No amount of rewriting history, creating causes after the event by sundry roaches will change these things. What is coming to Labor is more than well deserved, these people in their extreme selfishness have destroyed the credibility of labor.
what sad little creatures you are.
I guess it won’t be long before you guys start attacking Mrs Rein again, like you all did in late February – how dare she even be married to Kevin Rudd, let alone speak up for the man.
Gillard is finished – all of the delusional crap posted in here 24/7 from you lot ain’t going to alter the public mood.
TP: Well said! 🙂
Labor brought this all on themselves.
Cmon everybody lets feel the lurv
Thomas Paine, I will forgive you all of that nonsense on the charitable assumption that you were living on Mars in the years 2009 and 2010. Those of us who were living on Earth saw things rather differently.
@rishane/6155
At least Labor has alternatives, where as the Coalition don’t, Turnbull is pretty hated in the Coalition circles…. Apparently….
I know zero about Albo’s inner leanings.
1. He showed loyalty to the 31 – 71 which he knew was bound to fail
2. He is showing loyalty to the current leader
2. He is an attack dog par excellence.
Gillard has been one of the worst PM is in a very long time. Some one should tell her being a PM is not the same as being a department CEO. She fails to lead, to take the public with her, instead she stumbles all over the shop.
Will be interesting to see who they replace her with. The extreme irony is of course Rudd is the only one likely to give them any chance of wining, and will certainly save a lot of back bencher careers. But I think the factional boys safe in their seats wont give too much of stuff about who they destroy, and will resist Rudd, unless there is revolt.
So they could do the dumb thing and go for another, and that would be seen as NSW disease, whereas Rudd of course would be seen as rectifying and injustice. In fact going for somebody except Rudd could see Labor punished even more.
There is going to much squirming between now and the election.
“Labor brought this all on themselves.”
TLM, I actually agree with that. Labor brought this on themselves by deposing Beazley in 2006 and installing Rudd, when many people in Qld warned what he was like. Beazley would have been a great PM, but many doubted that he could beat Howard. This shows that sometimes it’s better to lose with a good leader than win with a bad one. But in any case I think Beazley would have won, because the voters were determined to vote against WorkChoices. We are still paying for that original sin, as many of the architects of that leadership change now admit.
[I guess it won’t be long before you guys start attacking Mrs Rein again, like you all did in late February – how dare she even be married to Kevin Rudd, let alone speak up for the man. ]
Listen, these people will most certainly attack her if they thought it would hurt Rudd and help Gillard. These people don’t follow a normal sense of morals and ethics. This is the labor factions looking after themselves. beware.
Psephos,
Do they suffer as being forward by the party or as as what Peta will throw at them ipso facto?
Pesphos do you think that instead of Rudd, Labor would have been better off going straight for Gillard ?
[zoidlord
Posted Saturday, July 7, 2012 at 12:35 am | Permalink
@rishane/6155
At least Labor has alternatives, where as the Coalition don’t, Turnbull is pretty hated in the Coalition circles…. Apparently….]
ALP leadership choices:
Gillard and win 45 seats max
Rudd and win 55 seats max
LNP leadership choices:
Abbott and win 100 seats+
Turnbull and win 110 seats+
Yeah, its tough being a Lib at the moment!
Psephos
I respect your opinion, but too many people I also respect (Possum, Mumble and many others etc) are of the view that the only way for the ALP to have a chance at the next election is returning to Rudd
The ideal situation would be a third leader, but that would make “NSW syndrome” institutionalised federally
Duck, sorry I don’t understand your question.
Psephos: Beazley never stood up to John Howard – that was his fatal flaw.
Tony Abbott’s unpopularity becomes a far bigger issue if he’s up against a popular Labor leader……..and that isn’t Gillard.
Denigrate Rudd all you want, but he’s got the greater capacity to pull Labor out of its current deep hole.
Gillard carries far too much baggage from the events of June 24, 2010.
[Listen, these people will most certainly attack her if they thought it would hurt Rudd and help Gillard. These people don’t follow a normal sense of morals and ethics.]
TP,
so you are in full agreement with TLM/Evan’s description of Gillard as ‘the red-haired bitch’?
It is going to be hilarious if it is 42/58 six months from an election and dozens of little backbenchers running around scared for their lives, and being told to jump off a cliff by their factional mafia bosses.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/staffer-could-face-10-years-for-sharing-slippers-diary-20120706-21mna.html
Psephos,
Beazley v Rudd is six years ago. Except for political issue, who cares?
Kevin did the job.Never forget that he deposed JWH to the bin. That was not totally to his acumen but he does deserve credit for that.
Maxine did the job but didn’t have the necessary guts to do the job in Bennelong. Seems she is becoming another Richardson. That is very sad for a very cluey lady.
Mick, possibly, but in 2006 Gillard was still suffering from her previous close association with Latham. What made Gillard leadership material was her brilliant performance in demolishing WorkChoices.
Spur22, they are basing that view on opinion polls. They should remember the Howard-Peacock years, when whoever was “out” was more popular than whoever was “in.” If Rudd came back, he’d immediately remind everyone of why they hated him in 2010, and the press and the polls would turn on him again.
I can’t see the party uniting behind Rudd – he just dosen’t have the personality or alliances. I doubt there would be a formal split but Labor would certainly go to the next poll in as a rabble. Rather than save the furniture he would ensure a record defeat.
That’s all for tonight Bludgers.
[Thomas Paine.
Posted Saturday, July 7, 2012 at 12:44 am | Permalink
It is going to be hilarious if it is 42/58 six months from an election and dozens of little backbenchers running around scared for their lives, and being told to jump off a cliff by their factional mafia bosses.]
Particularly because some of those factional bosses will be jumping into cushy jobs and not hanging around for the many years in the political wilderness.
The year countdown has started and the rats will be leaving the ship shortly.
Psephos,
Quite.
In short, is it of Labor’s doing or by the guiles of Peta Credlin? Lord knows that Tony Abbott does not have the nous of organizing a campaign.
People just don’t get it. People well know Abbott, he has been around a long time, a Minister for a long time. They accept him saying two different things in the same sentence. He is the rat bag they know. But even though they think he is not much chop, his opposition is a person the public personally don’t like, as well as think as bad as Abbott.
It is very much personal against gillard by many of the public. Jeezus…. what was the preferred PM between Rudd, Gillard, Abbott… an embarrassment.
The problem with other candidates besides the disliked gillard is that to the public view they are either incredibly invisible or vanilla.
Psephos @ 6159
I struggle to describe Shorten. Suffice to say his ambition towers over his ability. I doubt he will ever be leader.
and the song never ends
Crash in the TdF.
Wiggins and Cadel up front and not onvolved.
@Mod Lib coming from you thats a joke. Your a Liberal, so obviously you set your standards too high.
[I struggle to describe Shorten. Suffice to say his ambition towers over his ability. I doubt he will ever be leader.]
Shorten is what happens when a used car salesman has sex with real estate agent.
Would much prefer Combet over Shorten.
Combet has steel, policy nous, can relate to the worker and has the Clarke Kents about him.
Shorten just seems a little too much of a climber at times.
Yeah, Combet for me, after Julia win’s 2 re-elections he should be ready.
Anything better than watching the peloton devouring the escapees?!
[Yeah, Combet for me, after Julia win’s 2 re-elections he should be ready.]
2010 election and the Feb 2012 re-election against Rudd…..hmmmm, looks like shes done!
Hehe 🙂
Goodnight
In fact maybe Labor is so infested with factional roaches maybe its time for some more parties. I think the public are looking something credible to vote for.
Labor just shat in its bed and dealt a heavy blow to its credibility, the public have had their fill of the Coalition, the Greens still seem above it all… a new party that might take votes off Labor and the Libs.
If Rudd wanted to do something worthwhile for democracy and make use of his popularity and public respect now may be the time to create that new party.
[Julia win’s 2 re-elections]
Well she is yet to win one yet, hence her credibility and authority problems.
[If Rudd wanted to do something worthwhile for democracy and make use of his popularity and public respect now may be the time to create that new party.]
Thats multiple orgasm territory talk right there.
The ALP would never sit on the treasury benches again if that happened!
Shorten did come across as genuine and good value with disabilities when he was the relevant minister.
So TP Ruddstoration would produce a formal split rather than just turning the party into a rabble.
[Tom the first and best
Posted Saturday, July 7, 2012 at 1:14 am | Permalink
Shorten did come across as genuine and good value with disabilities when he was the relevant minister.]
Granted.
Shorten is clever, no doubt.
I think minister is his highest level. Beyond that he might struggle.
Combet is the man, get around him.
Gillard won in 2010 pain train, suck it up.