Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,396 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition”

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  1. BK Forgot to tell you, terrible mail strike up here and Pruneface’s invitation seems to have got lost, believe BH Baldwin also got lost somewhere, terrible shame!

  2. [Is tht right that Abbott will be on 7.5 again tonight?]

    Thank Dog its Friday, no idiot on State 7.5 for me. I only watch it on Fridays.

  3. As for the BER, I was handing out for the Greens in Kevin Andrews’ electorate (yes, I know – risking life and limb) in 2010, and the very pleasant but somewhat thick Lib hander-outer looked around at all the construction activity (the polling booth was a Catholic primary school) and said, “Isn’t it wonderful to see all these new buildings after such a long time?”

    I restrained myself with some difficulty.

  4. [fiona reynolds
    Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 6:22 pm | Permalink
    Mari, why would it be a smart comment to suggest to BK that just about everyone here know of a nice young chappie who does a mean massge?]

    Guess he would have to be paid a travelling allowance, Qld to SA would have to be good

  5. BH

    There is no 7.30 report on Fridays. Usually state based program. Cant imagine Abbott fronting up for an interview considering Pyne/Brough gate! Scratch that. Just realised, as if their. ABC would give Abbott a hard time!!

  6. schnappi

    Each day, Twitter will suggest a group of people it thinks you would like to Follow. Some suggestions are wee-i-rd. You can always try them and unfollow later.
    But if you follow someone who tweets and retweets a lot (such as conceravota or space kidette), they will introduce you to a whole other phalanx of interesting people.
    Enjoy! 🙂

  7. thank god we don’t have to listen to fran and michelle tomorrow – geraldine much more interesting….

  8. just hope barrie cassidy asks the ‘right’ questions re the pyne/brough sags on insiders – will be very disappointed and surprised if he doesn’t

  9. fiona #6205, good story. A rather buxom and very brilliant friend of mine took rather less subtle action when a partner at the law firm she was doing a summer clerkship kept staring down the front of her dress – she pulled out a breast and said sternly to her nipple, now pointed in his direction, “Look at the man when he’s talking to you!”

    Apparently he actually peed his pants and had to leave to get changed …

  10. The first 248 companies (of up to 500) responsible for paying the carbon price:

    Herald Sun article:

    [The Government today released the names of the 248 “entities” (see full list here) who will be liable for the carbon penalty because they are responsible for 70 per cent of the nation’s emissions.]

    [er companies will be added to the list and it is expected to total just under 500 by July.]

    [“We’ve written to around 330 entities advising we believe they are likely to be liable entities for the 2012-13 financial year,” said chair of the regulator Chloe Munro.

    “These entities account for more than 95 per cent of emissions covered by the carbon pricing mechanism.

    “Following that consultation we have today published 248 entities that we are satisfied are likely to be liable entities. These entities account for around 70 per cent of emissions covered by the carbon pricing mechanism.”]

    Which demonstrates what I’ve been saying: households are compensated because households are not the target – they don’t produce enough emissions to make enough difference (although every little bit helps).

    Of course, households are (in some cases, not all) users of these companies products, and thus will be liable in that way.

  11. Obama’s Con Trick in Afghanistan
    Anthony Lowenstein looks at the way Obama’s supposed withdrawal from Afghanistan allows for a large US Base there …forever…and as Australian may die any day in that hopeless war it concerns us all

    This will join the Empire of Bases…

    750 or more ..scattered around the world..which one US expert thinks is a 21st centiry version of earlier colonialism..and which is draining the USA of money..which might have been spent at home on /transport in a better run country

    When it come to militarism…Obama is little different to Bush..and jusr as bad

    One hopes all this will destroy the US Empire all the quicker

  12. Sheesh, I can barely believe the trashing of JG happening at the moment over Centrelink and the SP payment.

    Do these fks remember how much time they’ve spent denigrating Centrelink recipients?
    As if we’re not worth the time of day?

    Now they asking us to blame JG.
    Go Fk yourselves.

    (sounding/feeling like an extra in a BBC production!)

    We’re pariah no matter who is in government!

  13. MM @ 6310 – how wonderful. I only wish that I’d thought of doing that – there would have been, oh, opportunities too numerous to count 😉

  14. lizzie@6307

    Think Im getting the gist,as I get instant email notifications was a bit swamped,and have the twitter app on iPad so just logged into it.

  15. Michael Cusack @ 6066

    [ Talk of Mal Brough brings to mind a comment made about him by a former very senior Public Servant who observed a meeting chaired by Brough. He said “there was no doubt in his (Broughs) mind that he was by far the most intelligent person present, unfortunately he produced absolutely no evidence that this was so” ]

    I worked with Brough back in 2001 and there was nothing to suggest that his intellect was anything other than plodder standard.

  16. Schnappi
    good luck on twitter – it is great – suggest you follow chris murphy @chrismurphys
    he is very good value

  17. Yes Fiona, the same happened at the polling booth in the primary school my step-daughter goes to. Many parents don’t realise that there lies have been told about the BER and so many other aspects of government initiatives. The sooner the media are made to justify their comments the better (similar to uni students with footnotes and references). Too much of what is called “reporting” today is basically plagiaristic copying of someone else’s garbage.

  18. Lyne Lady

    Will eventually get to all the value,i did not even know the PM is a follower,cant help the name drop

  19. kezza2

    I do not wish for you to be cold ,so as I am in a happy mood ( nothing to do with politics)
    I absolve you of having to eat your pjs.
    Please stay warm

  20. Schnappi
    yes if you follow jg she always follows you – very handy as you are able to send her a dm – others who often will are bill shorten and tony burke

  21. [thank god we don’t have to listen to fran and michelle tomorrow – geraldine much more interesting….]

    Geraldine Doogue (spelling?): one of the few good guys remaining at #TheirABC. I’d listen but the news breaks are chunder-inducing.

  22. jp6

    you’re a gun!

    and all soft heart
    no wonder you have a loving wife and kids.

    PS the jammies are getting shorter!

  23. Lyne Lady

    What do I do if the slesze wants to follow me,doubt it ,but do I just delete the email and thats it?

  24. Schnappi
    i think if someone follows you you don’t want you can just block them. we are all in the trenches now and have to get in a fight hard…. if you give us your twitter address we’ll follow you

  25. Thanks for the link Fiona. The Canadian model does make interesting reading. Of course the US examples of “getting around” the truth don’t surprise me at all. I think Australia could easily endorse the Canadian statute without the danger of a US “freedom of rights” type challenge. The extension you suggest would be essential I believe. Then I’d even consider reading the papers I sell.

  26. [In the last five years, electricity prices in New South Wales increased by 80 per cent as average weekly earnings rose about 18 per cent.

    The spike in prices has been caused by rising transmission and distribution costs, for example, building new power poles and wires.]

    Sensible bit of commentary by the ABC – shame the headline is.

    [Carbon compo ‘not enough’ for poorest households]

    If these guys were selling me a fridge I could sue them for misleading conduct – as a journalist they get privilege. Bollocks to that.

  27. Ruawake @6326 I am sure he will say people are entitled to the presumption of innocence, right up until he says Thomson should resign or throw himself into jail. That’s if the Pyne Affair is raised at all as the ABC appears to have an all platforms ban on covering it.

  28. Kezza one bad thing, I was walking along the beach last week and has this shooting pain under my toe, pretty sure it was a bee, was in agony for a few hours. as couldn’t find the sting, next morning my toes were all swollen up even now still very itchy and sore about 5 days later, have worn sandals since

  29. [Brandis on Lateline tonight. I wonder what his poirotness will enlighten us with?]

    Judging by how quiet Brandis S.C. has been in the last week, I’d warrant that he would regard this as drawing the short straw.

    Let’s see if he tries to chage the subject, or goes on about everything being sub judice.

    I won’t be watching as, last night, some bastard here – I think it was BH or BK something “B” anyway) – pointed me to the excellent 1977 series The Secret War.

    Have already watched 3 episodes (watched them all on first release when just a boy, in 1978 I think), and will try for another couple tonight.

    As I said…. bastard.

    All I can say is “Thanks muchly” for the link.

  30. zoomster, somebody here (I think) was commenting about how they had managed to persuade a CT doubter into treating energy-use reduction as a game. Well, for what it’s worth, this household has reduced power consumption over the past three years – even though I now mostly work from home, and therefore have the computer and, in cold weather, the dimplex on for at least 16 hours a day.

    How, I hear you all ask, have you achieved such a miracle, fiona?

    Easy: each time an old-fashioned light globe has died, it has been replaced with an appropriate (for the fitting) ultra low wattage one. Which of course results in even more savings …..

  31. and I should have added that, despite hefty power price increases, our quarterly bills have gone DOWN.

  32. The only compensation I want is to know about is that Australia is finally joining other responsible nations in starting to address AGW. I emphasise ‘starting’. I emphasise ‘responsible nations’. There is a long way to go yet.

    As always, there are national climate slackarses around the world. You can pick national climate slackarses because they try to ride on the backs of other, responsible countries.

    I am just glad we are not a national climate slackarse like we were under Howard/Costello governments.


    [THE AUDACITY OF DOPE: Jason Wood wants to go back to where he once belonged
    By Tory Tony ⋅ May 4, 2012

    Liberal insiders are reported to be dismayed by the latest misfortune to befall them – the news that former Federal MP Jason Wood and spokesman on genetically modified orgasms has nominated for preselection in his old seat and is determined to make a Canberra comeback.]

  34. BB – the 1977 series? Fantastic! When I am in funds I shall acquire the set. Btw, it was BK wot recommended it, I think.

  35. @6335 And the words “not enough” that are quoted in the headline don’t appear in the article. They are an extrapolation from a quote that is actually about the impact of the overall electricity price rises that have already been experienced AND the extra impact of a carbon tax. They are not, as the headline suggests, about the carbon tax impact alone.

    As said later in the article the carbon tax aspect is more than balanced by compensation. The disparity comes from the cumulative increases already imposed at the state level.

    It all seems very semantic but it is an important distinction.

  36. Mari, go to the quack. There are spiders whose habitat is the beach, and spider bites can give you a whole lot of grief, as I well know: a common house black landed me in hospital for a WEEK a couple of years ago.

  37. [That’s if the Pyne Affair is raised at all as the ABC appears to have an all platforms ban on covering it.]

    It does not look like the ABC News has any plans to mention the Brough matter despite the Fairfax report out over 4 hours ago.

  38. mari

    i’ve always been afraid of bee stings
    my dad and my nephew had allergies
    and we’d always had to be on alert

    But i’d never been bitten.

    Until one day it happened!
    The pain was bloody amazing

    But thankfully, no swelling for me.

    Mum used to say that bees only bit because they were in a place where they were looking for a drink, be that dew on the grass, or wet clothes on the line.

    I’m thinking the bee that got you was a salt-water bee!

    Plus, I never walk on the water line, but wade – at least calf-deep.

  39. [Boerwar
    Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 7:09 pm | Permalink
    Did you put your foot in Bluey’s rockpool?]
    Bluey wouldn’t be so cruel to me, I know it would be a kalamazi (can’t spell it] bee, but boy I was just looking and my poor toe is still swollen and itchy

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