Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).

Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:

• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.

• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.

Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,940 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

  1. guytaur

    [Haha. Russia is stepping up the competition in Eurovision. Grannies]
    Those sneaky Russians have set a honey trap for the poms septuagenarian entrant Englebert Humperdinck 😆

  2. SK

    I’m not a koala expert, but I think there is a problem of overcrowding where koalas are confined to a small area (such as Phillip Island, Vic) or an island of suitable gums, and in thos places contraception may be advisable – or removal.
    OTOH, much of the koala habitat has been removed for “development”, I think esp in Qld, and there is less food available. Also, they have suffered from a disease I can’t remember which affects breeding.

    So it’s all a bit complicated.

  3. [davidwh
    Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 1:51 pm | Permalink
    Ratsak it’s the job of the FP to test the validity of the dockets or if in fact they are the same dockets referred to in the claim. My guess is that will happen quickly but in the meantime any statements of innocence or guilt are premature.]
    Clutching at straws. Shame on you.
    You came across as so much more logical when you were pretending that maybe you’d vote Labor if only Qld tossed out Bligh.

  4. Kezza

    [So your reply to leone was, how shall we say, less than honest]

    What? My reply about who I vote for?.

    I happly apologise if any PB poster assumed from my post that I vote green. I will burn in global warming hell before I ever vote green. 🙂

  5. Now Speers is on about leadership challenges. Spoke to a “very senior Labor figure who did NOT back Kevin Rudd last time” who thought her time was short unless a big change in direction occurred.

    Right, so they’d throw it all away for nothing. I just can’t believe this would happen.

  6. IMOHO

    No i do not. I just remember it because of how outrageous it was. Up there with not protecting citizens like Habid and Hicks.

  7. rummel
    [I happly apologise if any PB poster assumed from my post that I vote green. I will burn in global warming hell before I ever vote green.]

    Deflection noted.

    No, I was calling you out on your slur on leone.

  8. BB

    I do believe a big change of direction needs to occur. After the budget is passed. Time to sell the govt policies and agenda

  9. lizzie #5851, the disease you are thiking of among the koalas is chlamydia – its an STD, bacterial infection, different strain of the bacteria to the one that humans get

  10. rummel

    [I want the NBN to continue, though I’m wiling to toss it under a lib bus to get Labor out of office.]
    So Tones arse being on the prime ministerial chair is more important than one of Australia’s most important infrastructure projects of the 21st century ?

  11. i think Labor need to start coming up with some unkind terms for talking heads and radio hosts – something like the ‘gibber gabber squad’ or something else equally dismissive. something that makes people think twice about taking them seriously…

  12. [Victoria, the goal has already been kicked and gone through to the back of the net.]
    Just catching up.
    Let’s see what happens before we start awarding goals to one side or the other. If Slipper is innocent of all charges an own goal by the Libs will cancel out Labor’s so called own goal.

  13. More fun for Cameron and Murdoch:

    The Chancellor, George Osborne, is facing questions over whether he played a role in supporting News Corp’s attempted £8bn takeover of BSkyB.

    Evidence has emerged at the Leveson Inquiry that Mr Osborne was lobbied personally by James Murdoch and that Rupert Harrison, the Chancellor’s special adviser, discussed the bid with Frederic Michel, News Corp’s public affairs director.

    h­ttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/new-evidence-emerges-that-osborne-was-lobbied-by-murdoch-7682546.html

  14. Those rabbiting on about Swan’s performance forget a couple of things.

    Firstly, the idea that the Treasurer has to be a star communicator only originated with PJK. In general, the position has been seen as belonging to someone a bit dry and boring.

    Secondly, ALL governments who were in charge when the GFC hit have suffered electorally (I’m almost certain this is true worldwide).

    You can explain to people as much as you like that something was handled as well as it humanly could have been, but their gut wants someone to blame, and that someone is usually thegovernment.

  15. How tacky is this?

    [Monday 30/04/2012
    Pay on Peter Slipper returning as Speaker before the next Federal Election. If Slipper returns but then loses a no-confidence motion (within 4 weeks of returning) then NO will be paid as the winner. Singles Only
    Markets (1) 07:30 | Will Peter Slipper return as Speaker before the next election
    Yes 2.60
    No 1.30 ]

    http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/will-peter-slipper-return-as-speaker-before-the-next-election

    This should be illegal.

  16. bluegreen @ 5811

    My hypothesis is that the reason that people have switched allegiance is that people are definetly comparing the ecnomy now, with the ecnomy of Howard, and matching the economy to the political party.

    That is why the key factor for Labor is Swan. They need to be able to sell that things have changed in the world an Labor is best to help them through that change. Swan cannot do that.

    I fear you might be right on the first point although the more valid comparison would be with how the world economy is faring at present.

    I reluctantly agree with you about Swan although I do still like the man despite his unconscionable trashing of Rudd.

    Politics is a multi-skilled role and although Swan my be the Worlds Greatest Treasurer, he certainly isn’t the Worlds Greatest Salesman.

    So who could take over and under what circumstances? It is yet another factor pointing to the need for a change in the leadership team.

  17. Mauler
    Yep, that’s the one I couldn’t remember.

    Space Kidette
    When the Qlders started calling “Save the Koala” there were many in the south who fell about laughing because of overcrowding in some reserves down here. Then chlamydia had more of an impact, and then it was realised that the food trees of koalas were being felled in the north, so after about 10 years of disbelief, the north & south began to agree.

  18. Kezza

    [No, I was calling you out on your slur on leone.]

    What slur? That I implied that they were a labor voter?

    I apologise for implying leone is a labor voter. I can understand how that might be offensive.

  19. BB

    Considering Slipper is a lawyer, he can prepare his own lawsuits etc. if the msm overreach and defame him even after it has been shown otherwise, he can take action. No wonder the govt dont need to pay for Slipper’s legal costs, he can prepare his own case!

  20. dummel,

    [ I want the NBN to continue, though I’m wiling to toss it under a lib bus to get Labor out of office.]

    You’re willing to toss anything to see your neighbours and loved ones attacked with Liberal SerfChoices. One thing to say to you, dummel: Karma.

  21. bemused@5868,
    Think Wong would be a good candidate,and think other labor ministers are streets ahead of liberal finance bombs.

  22. It was funny when Speers was suggesting that Slipper’s choice of travel was more expensive, and Albo said that comcar costs 80.00 for a trip down the road.
    The msm dont want to let this go. Albo put out the warning re Godwin Gretch. Will they take heed?

  23. Poroti

    [So Tones arse being on the prime ministerial chair is more important than one of Australia’s most important infrastructure projects of the 21st century ?]

    No labor loosing is more important. And any way, like most things Labor are fighting for were Kevin’s babys and labor removed him Without a thought of the future

  24. [The msm dont want to let this go. Albo put out the warning re Godwin Gretch. Will they take heed?]

    Doubt it. They have a government to try and destroy!

  25. [So who could take over and under what circumstances? It is yet another factor pointing to the need for a change in the leadership team.]

    Well Shorten was the obvious candidate prior to this week for Treasurer.

    The best communicator is Carr but he is a bit out of date in economic circles.

    The best natural talent in Cabinet is Mark Butler but he is the most junior Minister.

    Emerson is too smarmy for me and although he is talked up in certain circles I havent seen many policy results from him.

    Wong is too automaton.

    They won’t risk Leigh (shame really).

    Pliberseck (they wont risk someone from the outer left)

    Combet, perhaps. Although often not that much better but at least he has a strong public record.

  26. bg,

    trashy and wrong yes, but fantastic value @ $2.60

    bemused,

    Treasurers as salespeople is a myth. People are grumpy because they still have memories of all the loose money at the end of Howard’s reign (without joining the dots to how that created the GFC), and by comparison things are a little tighter at the moment. Add that with Tony and the media screaming the world’s gonna end on July 1 and of course there is a lot of negativity.

    After July 1 that will change. Actually before then it will change with interest rate drops and pre-paid Carbon compensation. No I’m not talking about sudden 8 point swings in the polls, but just a general softening of the negativity as people actually get to live the new paradigm and find that mostly they have more cash in their hands than last year. We are probably looking at three interest rate drops and some extra payments/tax cuts. That’s what people will judge Swan on. Not how he talks or sells the message.

    Dollars in the pocket are always the most persuasive political message.

  27. rummel
    [What slur? That I implied that they were a labor voter?

    I apologise for implying leone is a labor voter. I can understand how that might be offensive.]
    Ah, another nice deflection.
    Looks like I have to spell it out for you.

    You implied leone was being dishonest.
    Without a shred of evidence.

    It’s quite a regular thing with the Coalition, though, isn’t it?
    Throw up an accusation that implies dishonesty.
    And when you’re called on it,
    you throw up your hands, claim innocence and do a “look over there”

  28. MORGAN POLL

    [
    L-NP (58.5%) INCREASES BIG LEAD OVER ALP (41.5%)
    AS PRESSURE MOUNTS ON PETER SLIPPER TO RESIGN AS SPEAKER

    ——————————————————————————–
    Finding No. 4766 – The face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over last weekend, April 21/22, 2012 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 949 Australians aged 14+, of all electors surveyed, 3.5% (unchanged) did not name a party. Face-to-face polling is more accurate than telephone polling due to the higher response rate achieved compared to other forms of polling including telephone polling and Internet polling.: April 27, 2012

    In late April L-NP support is 58.5% (up 1.5% from the telephone poll of April 17-19, 2012) compared to the ALP’s 41.5% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis according to a face to face Morgan Poll conducted over last weekend, April 21/22, 2012. Today’s result is similar to the face-to-face Morgan Poll of April 7/8 & 14/15, 2012 which showed the L-NP (59.5%) cf. ALP (40.5%).

    Today’s face-to-face Morgan Poll shows the L-NP primary vote is 47.5% (unchanged) — ahead of the ALP 30% (unchanged). Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 12% (up 0.5%) and Others/ Independents 10.5% (down 0.5%).]

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4766/

  29. victoria
    [OPT

    I did not realise Slipper was a Barrister! Too funny]
    The “cunning plan” plotters of the Coalition thought his resume said Barista.

  30. rishane,true but cry wolf too many times alerts people that that rose does not amell like a rose anymore,hence abbotts stop the boats fo rthe redneck rascist card to be dealt over again,why does he not go to Indonesia now,well he knows the answer.

  31. @bluegreen/5887

    I thought Face to Face wasn’t to be trusted ?

    And it’s been wrong on the last set of polls (if my thought’s haven’t betrayed me).

  32. Nice verballing Kezza but I was never in any doubt that the problems with QLD Labor went much deeper than just Bligh and never considered for even the slightest moment in time to vote other than LNP in QLD.

  33. [Now Speers is on about leadership challenges. Spoke to a “very senior Labor figure who did NOT back Kevin Rudd last time” who thought her time was short unless a big change in direction occurred.]

    How does Speers know how that person voted?

    I know plenty of dyed-in-the-wool Liberal voters who pop up on comments threads purporting to have voted Labor all their lives but because “Juliar” is a liar, they are never going to vote Labor ever again. Seems to add weight, does it not?

    The problem is it’s really easy to claim to have thought, said or done something if there are no witnesses to back you up. Doubly so if you happen to be an anonymous source: who is going to contradict them?

  34. bluegreen
    [Combet, perhaps. Although often not that much better but at least he has a strong public record.]
    But only if he’s played by the yummy actor in Bastard Boys 😉

  35. [zoidlord
    Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 2:33 pm | Permalink
    @bluegreen/5887

    I thought Face to Face wasn’t to be trusted ?

    And it’s been wrong on the last set of polls (if my thought’s haven’t betrayed me).]

    Useful as a tracking poll but not to pick true mean. Historically has favored ALP by around 4% as compared to phone poll.

  36. [It’s quite a regular thing with the Coalition, though, isn’t it?
    Throw up an accusation that implies dishonesty.
    And when you’re called on it,
    you throw up your hands, claim innocence and do a “look over there”]

    The dishonest making accusations of dishonesty?

    Right-Wing Projection.

  37. bluegreen @ 5892

    Key point to note.

    The Labor 2pp has collapsed by 5% on Margan poll since Gillard beat Rudd in the party room vote.

    Shhhh … we are not supposed to notice.

  38. [The Labor 2pp has collapsed by 5% on Margan poll since Gillard beat Rudd in the party room vote.]

    Funny that everyone has always pooh-poohed Morgan as being pro-Labor/pro-Liberal/all over the place depending on what their political stripe is.

    Give us a figure over ALL polls and we’ll talk.

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