Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research shows no real change in voting intention on last week, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 49 per cent, Labor and the Greens steady on 31 per cent and 11 per cent, and two-party preferred steady at 56-44. The poll also measures Bob Brown’s approval rating at 42 per cent and disapproval at 34 per cent (including very favourable figures among Labor voters of 60 per cent and 15 per cent); has 31 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd as Labor leader over 16 per cent for Julia Gillard (Gillard leads 40 per cent to 33 per cent among Labor voters); and 30 per cent favouring Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader with 23 per cent for Tony Abbott (Abbott leads 39 per cent to 26 per cent among Coalition voters). Further questions on the mining boom have 66 per cent believing it has benefited them “not at all”, 51 per cent supporting the mining tax (down one on mid-March) and 29 per cent opposing it (down five).

Federal preselection happenings in New South Wales:

• The NSW Liberal Party state executive has voted to dump Garry Whitaker as its candidate for Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. He has been replaced by Karen McNamara, a WorkCover public servant who reportedly has backing from the party’s right, who was defeated by Whitaker in the original preselection vote in December. Whitaker has since been struggling with allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there.

• More proactivity from the NSW Liberal state executive in neighbouring Robertson, a seat the party was disappointed not to have won in 2010. Local branches have had imposed upon them Lucy Wicks, who herself holds a position on the executive by virtue of her status as president of the party’s Women’s Council. Wicks was identified by the Sydney Morning Herald last year as a member of the “centre right” faction associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, which in alliance with the moderates had secured control of the state executive. Like the Dobell intervention, the imposition of Wicks occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott – local branches in both seats have called emergency meetings to express their displeasure.

Michelle Hoctor of the Illawarra Mercury reports Ann Sudmalis, the candidate backed by retiring member Joanna Gash, won Liberal preselection on Saturday in Gilmore with 16 votes against 10 for her main rival Andrew Guile. Rounding out the field were Alby Schultz’s son Grant, who scored four votes, and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields on one. For those wondering about the small number of votes, the NSW Liberals’ preselection procedure involves branches being allocated a number of selection committee delegates in proportion to their membership, rather than a massed rank-and-file ballot.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Nationals are in the “‘initial stages’ of discussions with popular independent state MP Richard Torbay about endorsing him for a tilt at independent federal MP Tony Windsor in New England”. Torbay has been the independent member for Northern Tablelands since 1999, and served as Legislative Assembly Speaker during Labor’s last term in office.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,940 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

  1. “bemused
    Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 10:56 am | Permalink
    victoria @ 5503
    bemused

    I forgot to add Julie bishop as a friend to Rudd

    Whilst I firmly believe in civility being maintained, I do not think any such friendships are appropriate.”

    That is a very narrow mind set. It appears you think that disagreeing with you is a charachter flaw so hienous as to totally invalidate any other redeeming features.

    I am glad to say that I have friends and relatives with a magnificently broad range of views.

  2. No senior liberal has been defending abbott lately the only thing the senior liberals have been doing is contradicting abbott

    making his leadership look useless

    the challengers have been waiting for something like this slipper affair, which puts pressure on abbott

  3. [iiNet has kittyCam now – Fast Broadband FTW….

    http://freezone.iinet.net.au/channels/freezone/lifestyle/kitty-cam?player=video/13158%5D

    IT drones out there: I am just getting a blank green screen on this, and also on some ABC replay sites (e.g. MediaWatch, Q&A)…. any idea why?

    Audio is present, but not the picture.

    Never had any problem until last week with any of this. My laptop has a LOT of grunt, latest s/w etc.

    Flash player version? Incompatible file? Any ideas?

  4. [Whilst I firmly believe in civility being maintained, I do not think any such friendships are appropriate.]

    Why not, bemused? They are a old as parliament, even ours. It’s like saying that friendships between different religious sects – eg RC & Lutherans – aren’t appropriate.

    Essentially, all good pollies have the same goal – do what’s best for Oz & Aussies – they just differ on how to achieve it.

    In OzPolitics, there have been many legendary cross-party friendships: Jim Killen (lib) & Fred Daly (ALP) – btw Gough deliveres a Eulogy for Killen; Gough & Mal Fraser (post-politics); Curtin and Menzies during WW II; Kev and Joe Hockey – walked Kokoda together; Joe looked after Therese & vv during their trip up Kilimanjaro.

    Until tabloid journalism & relentless intrusion into pollies’ private lives (incidentally, last night, Murdoch said he believed pollies & celebs merited such intrusion), Australians believed religion and politics were topics not to be discussed on social occasions: everyone has the right to her/ his own beliefs/ opinions, and we respect that. After all, we are the country that invented the secret ballot (aka the Australian Ballot overseas) so no one would how we voted.

    In a pluralist democracy, it’s a very sad day indeed (and most UnAustralian) when we judge others as unworthy of friendship, just because their religious/ political beliefs or opinions differ from our own.

  5. [Lynchpin
    Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 11:43 am | Permalink
    There will be sufficient distance between Abbott’s office and the spear carriers in the Slipper story. The damage is done. The polls will go down for the ALP. The clean air it had re the Aged Care announcment and the Budget has gone. Gillard’s credibility can be assaulted again, egged on by Grattan et al. It is politics. Abbott is winning.
    ]

    I am agreeing with you a lot today Lynchpin.

  6. Meguire Bob. Perhaps. Before the Slipper thing happened I had a suspicion Hockey and Turnbull were up to something. That got lost in all the Slipper static. Funny that.

    I think that while ever Abbott has the Libs with an enormous poll lead, there will be no appetite in the Liberal Party room for a change of leadership, unfortunately.

  7. [Flash player version? Incompatible]

    Probably. I (on mac) had to update this week (tues or wed) because I couldn’t get some videos on ABC & Oz online newspaper sites on either firefox or safari. OK now.

  8. bluegreen @ 5596

    Factional heavyweights lose their seats too.

    It only needs enough of them to shift. Some will have to be put to the wall though. 🙂

    Now that is something to look forward to!

  9. Womble @ 5538

    [Also I think dismissing Ashby’s sexual harassment claim because of doubts about the cab charge part of it is a bit over the top. ]

    Nothing over the top about it at all. Ashby has lodged a number of claims. Most of them are based on his testimony (he said/she said) or with the flimsiest of evidence (these texts that don’t really say much but if you twist them they could be read in a certain way to support my claims). Now that’s ok, and without any further evidence it is best to leave it to the courts to decide on their veracity.

    But we do have further evidence. Ashby further made claims that on certain dates Slipper handed over signed cabcharge dockets without filling in the details. Ashby has said he was troubled by this. The Dept of Finance has released the dockets for the days in question and they are all filled in by the same person (despite coming from different companies) which seems clearly to be Slipper. Unless you want to nail a tinfoil hat to your head and claim Finance are in on the conspiracy clearly Ashby’s claims are false. Not arguable, not oh if you look at it from a certain angle it’s not completely wrong. They are flat out proven to be baseless. Any red herrings like ‘why are the numbers sequential?’ don’t come into it. A specific allegation has been made and the physical evidence of the dockets proves it was utterly false.

    So we have pretty much rock solid evidence that Ashby makes and has made false claims against Slipper. On that basis it is ridiculous to claim ‘oh but sexual harassment is serious, he should stand aside’. Making demonstrably false claims against a senior politician with the aim to damage their career and perhaps bring down a democratically elected government is also very serious.

    On the evidence presented Ashby has given up the right to be believed on his other claims by making demonstrably false claims on the cabcharges. Now if (and I’d say it’s probably a big if) he does go to court he’ll have the chance to try and repair the damage he’s done to himself and his chances of being believed (in the face of Slipper’s legal representative tearing him a new one), but there is no way anyone with any brains would want to be sticking their neck out on his word right now.

    It would be a very slippery slope indeed if politicians had to stand down every time a person makes a complaint against them, even for sexual harassment (which covers a very wide range of activities). Doubly so if the complainant has been shown to make false claims. The potential for abuse is just far too severe.

    The current precedents of only stepping down for criminal matters makes far more sense and is much less open to abuse.

  10. victoria

    I hate to say it. I think the Blues will lose against Fremantle. Too man injuries. Combined with Freo home ground advantage.

  11. Lynchpin

    Did The msm predict Slipper would become Indie and Speaker of the house?
    Did the msm predict JG would challenge Rudd in Feb, having himself resign as FM whilst overseas?
    Did the msm predict Arbib would resign as Senator on the same day?
    Did the msm predict Carr would get the spot and become FM?

    What are the msm predicting now?

  12. lynchpin

    Its not tony abbott who has the libs in the lead in the polls, there is where people are not understanding

    Abbott popularity is lower then Gillards and Labor

    People are waiting for the impact after July 1- if there is little impact the coalition 2 pp will go down, simple as that

  13. Bemused

    [Now that is something to look forward to!]

    Bill Shorten will survive unharmed and promoted whoever becomes leader. He is like a slice of vegemite toast that always lands vegemite-side up!

  14. compact crank @ 5602

    That is a very narrow mind set. It appears you think that disagreeing with you is a charachter flaw so hienous as to totally invalidate any other redeeming features.

    I am not a member of parliament. Fraternising with the enemy is not really advisable for them in my view. Civility and respect are OK, but you can never afford to forget they are there to do your side in.

    I am glad to say that I have friends and relatives with a magnificently broad range of views.

    So do I. What’s your point?

    Oh BTW, I must compliment you on the appropriateness of your name. Well, the second part anyway.

  15. The coalition at the moment is only high , due to the media and their pro coalition stance

    Nothing at all to do with tony abbott

  16. And here they forensically going over cab vouchers:

    [Rupert Murdoch yesterday claimed that phone hacking within the NoTW was covered up by a “clever lawyer” and “one or two very strong characters”.

    The global head of News Corp claimed he had been “shielded and misinformed” about the extent of criminal wrong-doing within the Sunday tabloid. The alleged cover-up prevented reports of hacking reaching News International’s chief executive, Rebekah Brooks, and his son, James, executive chairman.

    Last night, NI’s former legal manager, Tom Crone, claiming that Mr Murdoch’s evidence “can only refer to me”, branded Mr Murdoch’s assertion of a cover-up “a shameful lie”.

    Mr Murdoch also directly criticised the appointment of Colin Myler as editor of the NoTW.

    Mr Crone said: “It is perhaps no coincidence that the two people Mr Murdoch has identified in relation to his cover-up allegations are the same people who pointed out that his son’s evidence to the Parliamentary Select Committee last year was inaccurate.”]

    Read more: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/uk/rupert-murdochs-coverup-claims-shameful-16150707.html#ixzz1tCZqspbL

  17. [Rupert Murdoch yesterday claimed that phone hacking within the NoTW was covered up by a “clever lawyer” and “one or two very strong characters”.

    The global head of News Corp claimed he had been “shielded and misinformed” about the extent of criminal wrong-doing within the Sunday tabloid. The alleged cover-up prevented reports of hacking reaching News International’s chief executive, Rebekah Brooks, and his son, James, executive chairman.]

    Ah, the old JWH defence. Gutless. Completely gutless and immoral.

  18. Lynchpin

    No post in particular. Basically that the msm are on a witchunt. We know why. Regime change. So far everything they have thrown at the govt has not toppled them over yet. This Slipper saga is yet another roll of the dice for them. Do they know how it is going to pan out? What are the msm predicting?

  19. OPT @ 5607

    Why not, bemused? They are a old as parliament, even ours. It’s like saying that friendships between different religious sects – eg RC & Lutherans – aren’t appropriate.

    Not a good analogy at all.

    In a pluralist democracy, it’s a very sad day indeed (and most UnAustralian) when we judge others as unworthy of friendship, just because their religious/ political beliefs or opinions differ from our own.

    Friendships in the workplace may be inappropriate, particularly in an adversarial parliamentary system.

  20. [Yup Update Adobe Flash to latest version and make sure all you’re browsers that you use is upto date.]

    I have the latest version. Not missing much, just ABC & some other stuff (CAN watch Q&A, if on Iview, but ot the Q&A web site), but strange nevertheless.

    Might be Firefox browser problem. Just got version 12 last week, but from memory the older version had the same problem with Flash files.

  21. [The argument was between whether it was the cabbies docs or slippers. I stand by my statement.]

    Maybe a combination of them. Not all documents are in the same sequence.

  22. [No post in particular. Basically that the msm are on a witchunt. We know why. Regime change. So far everything they have thrown at the govt has not toppled them over yet. This Slipper saga is yet another roll of the dice for them. Do they know how it is going to pan out? What are the msm predicting?]

    The World Wonders… where is Ashby? This is a drive-by court action. He should come forward.

  23. bluegreen @ 5621

    Bill Shorten will survive unharmed and promoted whoever becomes leader. He is like a slice of vegemite toast that always lands vegemite-side up!

    He has managed so far but I would have thought he should be first to the wall now Arbib is gone.

    What will save him is he has a fairly safe seat and strong local support base.

    Pity.

  24. Incidentally: where did Steve LEwis get the other CabCharge dockets (i.e. the ones not in this 13) he was on about? Leaked? FOI?

  25. BB

    Your mate Hadley has been dragged in. In the Terror.

    [Senior Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese said photocopies of 13 Cabcharge dockets released yesterday by Mr Slipper – who has stood down as Speaker of the House – showed allegations against him were “simply not correct”.

    However during his morning show this morning Ray Hadley said the dockets showed Mr Slipper was “an unmitigated liar” and “a disgrace”.

    The dockets produced by Mr Slipper are manual dockets, required when a cab’s electronic system fails.

    “It’s funny that this particular cab kept having failures whenever Peter Slipper was near the cab, which is rather mysterious to start with,” Hadley said.]

  26. Hi Victoria

    I am sure they don’t know how it will pan out. It is incredible to me that News Ltd is carrying on the Cabcharge prosecution and no one has really questioned this. Amazing. I agree, it is a witch hunt. It is all about “Get Gillard” and then “Get Labor”. I just hope the ALP does not blink. As a paid up member, I will be very very annoyed.

  27. BB

    According to Slipper last night. His view on Lewis

    [PeterSlipperMP Hey, thought you’d like to know of Steve (vendetta) Lewis’ latest bizarre attempt to discredit me
    about 16 hours ago]

  28. [Lynchpin
    Posted Friday, April 27, 2012 at 11:43 am | Permalink
    There will be sufficient distance between Abbott’s office and the spear carriers in the Slipper story. The damage is done. The polls will go down for the ALP. The clean air it had re the Aged Care announcment and the Budget has gone. Gillard’s credibility can be assaulted again, egged on by Grattan et al. It is politics. Abbott is winning.]
    All in the present. In 16 months?

  29. [However during his morning show this morning Ray Hadley said the dockets showed Mr Slipper was “an unmitigated liar” and “a disgrace”.]

    Advice to Ray Hadley. Get a defamation lawyer real quick.

  30. The dockets actually look like the old manual credit card slips. I had previously thought them to be vouchers issued to a cab charge client, however, they’re issued to the driver. The Peter Slipper no 1 thing would be off the impression of his card.

    It may be other CC users paid electronically via an in-car eftpos machine, not manually on the old card clicker, as the Speaker has.

    I can imagine he has his own reasons for doing exactly that.

  31. [However during his morning show this morning Ray Hadley said the dockets showed Mr Slipper was “an unmitigated liar” and “a disgrace”.

    The dockets produced by Mr Slipper are manual dockets, required when a cab’s electronic system fails.

    “It’s funny that this particular cab kept having failures whenever Peter Slipper was near the cab, which is rather mysterious to start with,” Hadley said.]

    IT WAS NOT A CAB. IT WAS A HIRE CAR. HIRE CARS DON’T HAVE METERS. SOME DON’T HAVE EFT TERMINALS.

    Hadley should read Ashby’s allegations.

  32. [However during his morning show this morning Ray Hadley said the dockets showed Mr Slipper was “an unmitigated liar” and “a disgrace”.]

    If Mr Slipper is cleared this might be a nice little earner for Mr Slipper.

  33. Funnily enough Arbib has re-appeared at the Australian Rugby Union as a consultant assisting it with.. wait for it…. wait… its governance structures.

  34. SK

    Do not worry. I do not believe him. In fact I think the terror repeating this is a desperate clutching of straws by those who should have known better than to publish in the first place.

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