ReachTEL: 54.2-45.8 to LNP in Ashgrove

UPDATE: The Courier-Mail reports Galaxy’s poll of 800 respondents has Campbell Newman with a clear primary vote lead of 52 per cent to 45 per cent.

UPDATE 2: A Morgan phone poll of a grand total of 202 respondents, conducted last night and the night before, has the LNP leading 51 per cent to 28 per cent on the primary vote and 62-38 on two-party preferred, but such is the sample size that I don’t know why they bothered. Follow the link for personal ratings for the two leaders, if you’re really that interested.

The results of ReachTEL’s final automated phone poll of Ashgrove for the campaign, conducted last night from a sample of 931, have just been announced on Spencer Howson’s program on the ABC. It overturns last week’s result in favour of Labor’s Kate Jones and has Campbell Newman with a 54.2.-45.8 lead on two-party preferred, based on the preference distribution from the 2009 election. The primary votes were 49.0 per cent for the LNP, 40.8 per cent for Labor and 7.5 per cent for the Greens. Full details here. Galaxy was also in the field in Ashgrove last night and will presumably report this evening.

Other news:

Nanango (Independent 2.9% versus LNP): The outgoing independent member, Dorothy Pratt, has endorsed independent candidate John Dalton, described by Antony Green’s election guide as “spokesman and secretary for the Kingaroy Concerned Citizens Group (KCCG) and Assistant School Principal at the St Mary’s Catholic College in Kingaroy, where he has worked for 22 years”. Sarah Elks of The Australian reports the LNP is expressing confidence that its candidate Deb Frecklington will win the seat in the face of the challenge from former test cricketer Carl Rackemann, running for Katter’s Australian Party. Bob Katter is sounding somewhat more modest about his party’s chances than he was in the lead-up to the campaign, countenancing the possibility of it failing to win any seats. Katter says the legal challenge against ballot papers identifying the party merely as “The Australian Party” cost it “one-fifth to one-seventh of all of our money for fighting”, although it presumably went into that obviously doomed effort with its eyes open.

Ashgrove (Labor 7.1%): The Australian reports Labor is accusing the LNP of colluding with sand mining firm Sibelco in a campaign targeting Ashgrove residents over government moves to phase out its operations on North Stradbroke Island. Labor is querying how Sibelco has been able to obtain voters’ names and addresses, which appears to suggest access to a copy of the electoral roll – something which is only provided to candidates, parties, MPs and government authorities.

Nicklin (Independent 16.3% versus LNP): Katter’s Australian Party candidate Matthew Smith has claimed the local LNP branch manager approached him with an offer to print his how-to-vote cards if he directed preferences to his party’s candidate, former Wallabies coach John Connolly. Owen Jacques of the Sunshine Coast Daily also reports that independent member Peter Wellington has accused a local political opponent, Kathy Marshall, of seeking to discredit him with a concocted letter from Neil Turner, whom Wellington unseated as National Party member for the seat in 1998. The letter accuses Wellington of failing to report to parliament on a government-funded trip to North America in 1999, and was said to have been provided to Marshall three days before Turner’s death on July 4 last year. Marshall has signed a statutory declaration vouching for the letter’s authenticity.

Coomera (LNP 1.9%): Greg Stoltz of the Courier-Mail reports that residents near the property of LNP member Michael Crandon are “furious” at his move to lease part of his Kingsholme property to Telstra to erect a mobile phone tower, which “will earn him hundreds of thousands of dollars”. The property is located in the neighbouring electorate of Albert. This has evidently been in the works for over three years, but the tower is due to be erected within weeks, and residents are seeking to express their ire by whipping up controversy days out from the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

59 comments on “ReachTEL: 54.2-45.8 to LNP in Ashgrove”

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  1. LNP “costings” out today – ridiculous that a party about to form a government can be permitted to give the electorate about one day to review such important material.

    Further, the costings are not scrutinised by a credible/independent body and most of the journos won’t have time to get anything more than a smattering of first reactions, which will mostly be of the nature you could script in advance, then it’s election day.

  2. The ReachTEL poll may be the final nail in the ALP’s campaign which is slightly ironic given that the previous one gave them an ever so slight chance.

    On another note it is interesting that although the ALP have nominated John Laing as their candidate to take on Geraldine Knapp for The Gap ward in the upcoming Brisbane City Council election he is not yet profiled on their website ( and so far is keeping an extremely low profile. If I were a betting man I would put money on that being Kate Jones’ plan B.

  3. @Luckydave/1
    I almost think the whole costings process is slightly redundant. What will happen is the LNP will release their costings, ALP will claim a black hole, LNP will deny black hole meanwhile the public don’t really care.

  4. Hutch yes that is how it will play out, but surely the costings deserve real scrutiny. After all it will be costings that form a fig leaf for post election back tracking and I expect plenty of ” non-core” promises from Campbell’s mob.

  5. Hutch

    Rubbish, rubbish, rubbish. John Laing has been out and about but not noticed in Ashgrove amongst the swarm of other electioneers.

  6. Wouldn’t you normally see a pattern towards the final polling to see if it was in favor of LNP or Labor ?

    This seemed mix bag results.

  7. Hutch

    Mind you thanks for the idea. Someone should suggest it to Kate Jones – maybe not until next week though.

    Geraldine Knapp is a strong councillor and Kate is the only person with a chance of unseating her.

  8. @daretotread/5
    Maybe a fair point but I find the fact he is not mentioned anywhere on the Ray Smith website pretty intersesting. I think nominations close for council on Monday so will know then one way or the other.

  9. [“LNP “costings” out today – ridiculous that a party about to form a government can be permitted to give the electorate about one day to review such important material. “]

    Yes, because the punters out there go through this stuff with a fine tooth comb like the accountants we are. Come on most people don’t care and made their minds up who to vote years ago.

    This election is pretty much over before it’s began. I’m guessing Labor will end up on around 13 seats, with Campbell Newman winning Ashgrove in a canter. Labor are putting everything into Ashgrove not because it will stop the LNP from thrashing them at this election but rather to be spoil-sports.

  10. Perhaps Labor might have been better putting more resources into other Brisbane seats at risk from falling to the LNP?
    Kate Jones was always going to be up against it when Newman announced he was running for Ashgrove.

  11. [“Kate has put everything into the campaign and really wants to win. Nothing spoil sport about it”]

    Yes and the QLD Labor Party have been giving her everything to keep this seat, despite knowing they will lose the election. They want to be spoil-sports and try and stop a Newman leadership.

    I’m surprised with all the media coverage about who will be Liberal leader should Newman not win the seat. The question the leftwing media have failed to ask is who will be *LABOR* leader if Anna Bligh loses her seat?

  12. I have heard it said that the important question voters in Ashgrove need to consider is; Do they want the Premier of Queensland Campbell Newman as their local MP, or a Labor opporsition backbencher Kate Jones? Edward James

  13. Queensland needs an Upper House – even though the O’Farrell Government has a 50 seat majority in the lower house of the NSW parliament, at least a more finely balanced Upper House provides some checks and balances on government legislation.
    Newman seemingly will have unlimited executive power after Saturday, with only 12 or 13 Labor MPs to oppose him.

  14. [It’s just the result of a campaign strategy turned in its head when the CMC destroyed the basis of the strategy.]

    Well in your mind anyway and if everyone had your mind we’d have zero labor members and a millenia of Liberal rule.

  15. WWP the problem with your assertion is that the CMC ignores spin and deals with facts. The problem for Labor is that the corruption watchdog found the facts did not support the spin. Ultimately in a democracy the people get to make a judgement and that happens on Saturday.

  16. TLM it doesn’t matter how much you win by you end up with ultimate power without a house of review. Labor has enjoyed that for 20 of the past 22 years. Arguing about the size of the majority is just more political spin which may save Labor a seat or two. Hopefully Fraser will hold on and become opposition leader thus ensuring the LNP will govern for at least two terms.

  17. [“Queensland needs an Upper House “]

    Just what we need… more buearacrats and public servants suckiling the public tit.

    How about scrap state governments all together and have empowered local districts and only a federal government overseeing the lot?

    Still waiting for Kevin Rudd’s health take over referrendum(oh thats right, Dillard was the one who canned it behind the scenes)

  18. [“Well in your mind anyway and if everyone had your mind we’d have zero labor members and a millenia of Liberal rule.”]

    It was a desperate act by Blight and I fully expect the Campbell family to take her to the cleaners financially post election with a defamation case.

  19. [“GeeWizz I think it requires a referendum and I can’t see people voting to increase the number of politicians.”]

    You won’t be increasing the number of politicians, you will be decreasing them by 6 state governments and 2 territory governments and empowering local councils for local issues.

    Feds will take over control of health, education, police and roads and anything else the state governments deal with from state based branches. State represenative will be voted in the council elections and will also get a say/power in Federal Parliament.

    No more passing the buck, no more multi-level waste.

  20. [How about scrap state governments all together and have empowered local districts and only a federal government overseeing the lot?]

    Interesting. Straight out of the mouth of Gough Whitlam.

  21. I hardly ever agree with “GeeWizz” but I’ve long held a similar view — though I’d lose the councils as well in favour of regional government (which could allocate the old Council functions to a committee answerable in the first instance to the regional government and after that to the regular courts)

  22. William can I ask why you think Thuringowa will be a Labor win and how you think the Katter Party will go in this seat which partially makes up part of Bob Katters federal seat and which in 1998 went to the One Nation Party?

    I’ve got $200 Dollar bet @ $51 Dollar odd’s that this will be a Katter Party win, though I am a little disturbed that the Katters Party has been unfairly named the “Australian Party” on ballot sheets to confuse the punters.

  23. GW, you haven’t taken long to remind me why I wasn’t sentimental about banning you. See this form? It’s the form you have to fill out when you register a political party. See where it says “proposed abbreviation of party name (if any)”? The KAP filled it out with “The Australian Party”. See S 102(2)(g)(i) of the Electoral Act? It provides that a party which filled that box on its registration form shall be identified that way on ballot papers. The ECQ did not do what it did to “confuse the punters”, but because it would have been unlawful for it to have done otherwise.

    As for Thuringowa, I have no idea whether Craig Wallace will hold on or not. Probably not, now I think of it again. Things don’t seem to be going Labor’s way in the final week.

  24. Hi, everybody. Decided to lock in my prediction for the QLD state election. (Apologies if it’s in the wrong thread, William)

    LNP to win govt (dah!) 57-43 2PP


    LNP 62
    ALP 21
    KAP 3
    IND 3

    Newman to win Ashgrove 52.5-47.5 2PP

  25. [WWP the problem with your assertion is that the CMC ignores spin and deals with facts. The problem for Labor is that the corruption watchdog found the facts did not support the spin. Ultimately in a democracy the people get to make a judgement and that happens on Saturday.]

    The problem with your position is that you don’t seem to express any understanding at all of the law nor really the difference between the law and politics. Now I don’t for a minute think you have no understanding at all of law and politics, in fact I suspect you have quite a lot, so then my conclusion would be …

  26. [William Bowe
    Posted Thursday, March 22, 2012 at 4:54 pm | Permalink
    One Nation candidate Santo Ferraro does irony.]

    and very well!

  27. [Toorak Toff
    Posted Thursday, March 22, 2012 at 6:31 pm | Permalink
    The real question in Ashgrove is: do the electors want a proven local girl or a dodgy blow-in?]

    They don’t want a bitter Premier who desperately resorts to grubby innuendo “CN will be going to jail”…can’t recall any previous election so repulsive.

    They do want to have a Premier as their rep.


    proven what exactly?

  28. WWP

    I wonder what your view is in relation to the “Thompson credit card with hookers”? Which was audited and evidence send to a ICAA

    I wonder what your view is in relation to the 50-70 spouses, mothers, sons etc of ALP politician, that earns a fat paycheck off the public service and who do almost nothing (and I know people who works with them) I think they should all be referred to a ICAA

  29. [Carey Moore:

    LNP to win govt (dah!) 57-43 2PP]


    LNP 62
    ALP 21
    KAP 3
    IND 3]

    LNP 65
    ALP 18
    KAP 3
    IND 3

    [Newman to win Ashgrove 52.5-47.5 2PP]


    Game on Carey! 🙂

  30. You could be right GW, I underestimated the ALP vote in NSW so I have deliberately given the Qld ALP some slack, however, if it turns out to be 10 seats for the ALP and 70+ seats for the LNP I wouldn’t be at all shocked.

    If the ALP won more than 25 seats, I would be shocked though!

  31. [“For a Labor to have 20 years in power, 25 seats is still pretty good ML.”]

    If Labor wins more than 16 seats I will strip naked and run down flinders st during peak hour

  32. When predicting landslides, I prefer to err on the side of caution. Nevertheless, I don’t think it would be fair to describe my (or Mod Lib’s) predictions as some form of underestimation. They properly encapsulate a massive win for the LNP.

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