Galaxy: 51.5-48.5 to Labor in Ashgrove

The Courier-Mail yesterday published a poll of the all-important electorate of Ashgrove from a thumping sample of 800, which confirms the findings of Thursday’s ReachTel poll: that the two-party result is within the margin of error and Campbell Newman is in very serious danger of falling short. Indeed, the published figure has Jones in the lead with 51.5 per cent of the two-party vote, with both major candidates on 45 per cent and the Greens on 8 per cent. The two-party figure has been obtained using the preference splits from 2009, with the Greens vote going 50 per cent to Labor, 15 per cent to the LNP and 35 per cent exhausting, and the negligible “others” vote neatly divided 25 per cent to each party with 50 per cent exhausting. Of course, whether this pattern will be precisely replicated under the highly unusual circumstances of the looming election remains an open question. Galaxy has found 63 per cent of voters intending to allocate preferences, but since nine in 10 of these respondents are supporters of the major parties, this doesn’t tell us very much. The poll also provides a huge boost for Jones in finding that Labor supporters were a lot more likely than LNP supporters to nominate “liking for party/candidate” as the reason for their vote choice (70 per cent against 44 per cent), and correspondingly less likely to nominate hostility to the opposing party (27 per cent against 55 per cent).

• Katter’s Australian Party has predictably failed in its bid to have its full name listed on ballot papers after it was embarrassed to learn electoral rules provided for the use of its registered abbreviation, which is merely “The Australian Party”. So weak was its case that it has been suggested the court challenge was merely being used as an awareness-raising exercise. In related news, Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail turns out to be a hip-hop enthusiast.

• Yet more candidate trouble for the LNP on the Gold Coast, it having emergeed that Albert candidate Mark Boothman was the administrator of a website which “displayed soft porn”. The website was in fact a forum for motoring enthusiasts, and boys being boys, some participants had uploaded “adult content” to it. This follows the party’s loss of two candidates in the nearby seat of Broadwater, one over a drink driving charge and the other over his attendance at a swingers party function. For what it’s worth, my view is that parties in general, and the Queensland LNP in particular, have become a little trigger happy in dispensing with candidates over minor indiscretions. In this case it was not an option, as nominations have closed and ballot papers have been printed. Perhaps for this reason, Campbell Newman is standing behind a “terrific young bloke” and “family man”.

• Police are investigating the firing of a “large-calibre bullet” through the office window of Michael Crandon, the LNP member for the northern Gold Coast seat of Coomera.

• The Greens have launched their campaign with a promise to reinstate the upper house, an understandable objective given the near certainty that they will yet again fail to win any seats (their traditionally strongest seats are occupied by the two most senior figures in the government: Anna Bligh’s seat of South Brisbane and Andrew Fraser’s seat of Mount Coot-tha) Though personally, I would have thought a system of proportional representation in the existing single chamber both an easier sell (or at least, a less difficult one) and more in their interests in any case.

• Writing in The Australian, Peter Beattie predicts:

Bob Katter’s Australian Party will only win two to three seats at best … if Newman loses Ashgrove and the LNP wins government, Lawrence Springborg will be premier with Tim Nicholls as his deputy. Depending on who wins their seat, the opposition leader will be either Andrew Fraser or Cameron Dick. A Labor victory will see Jeff Seeney fall on his sword and Tim Nicholls as opposition leader.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

127 comments on “Galaxy: 51.5-48.5 to Labor in Ashgrove”

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  1. Re-instating the Legislative Council would require a referendum (as would extending the 3 year-term) while proportional representation would not. It would only require parliamentary approval.

  2. ruawake,

    [ Campbell Newman wants to crush hoons cars after a second offence. ]

    The hoons up this way are pretty good at crushing their own cars! 😉

  3. I think it’s unlikely Newman can win Ashgrove as the trend is too strong against him. Labor still has a fair bit to do to claw back a 10 percent swing against them but to date the LNP is not handling the leadership issue well.

  4. [Labor still has a fair bit to do to claw back a 10 percent swing against them…]

    The thing is we do not know, the only time when polls matter, during an election campaign and we have … crickets. Jones has has a ~4% swing to her in a month, is it possible the ALP has as well?

  5. DavidWH

    [I think it’s unlikely Newman can win Ashgrove]

    I wouldn’t be surprised if he lost either.

    Kate Jones appears to have run a very smart campaign and the fact that he is not in the Parliament and only now is addressing the matter of his financial arrangements makes him appear to be a little too smart by half and shifty to boot.

  6. Anything is possible in politics Rua. Any of the four options are likely with both a Newman led government and a Labor victory looking the least likely results at present.

  7. The lnp. are doing all they can to get the focus back on labor but, atm they seem to be failing. The momentum Seems to have swung back in labor,s favour and i guess they will push the leadership issue as hard as they can.
    The lnp. cannot complain about this as they are the one,s who made the leadership the main game by making can-do the leader while not even elected to the parliament.
    Now it looks like blowing up in their faces and they are scrambling to respond.
    They dare not mention the Borg as a possibility as he has already been rejected 3 times,and I am guessing this possibility is on a lot of voters minds and might help save labor.
    If not can-do then who?

  8. Tim Nicholls is the best option but he has to get past the old style Nationals born to rule mentality. It’s a real test of how much the LNP has addressed old rivals between the Nats and Libs. How they deal with that will probably determine first if they can win and second whether they can be an organised government.

  9. ruawake @ 9

    The lack of statewide polls is puzzling. Perhaps the pollsters aren’t bothering to waste the money because the LNP are locked in to win a canter.

    Can anyone recall many state wide polls were done in the run up to the last Qld election?

  10. Trawler I may be cynical but I think they want all the spotlight to be on Newman at present. Galaxy indicated the statewide swing is 10 percent so they may be sitting on some information.

  11. [Further polling showed locally born-and-bred Ms Jones had a 74-22 advantage in terms of knowing what the people of Ashgrove wanted, having been their local MP since 2006.

    The survey of 800 Ashgrove voters, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, gave the most thorough insight yet into the key electorate.

    As well as being asked who they would vote for, those polled were also asked who they would like to win in Ashgrove. The result was even more overwhelming in favour of Ms Jones, 54-43.

    It showed that, perhaps most importantly, female voters were behind the 32-year-old, married mother-of-one, with a huge 61-37 gender advantage.

    Women turned off Mr Newman last week after he failed to dump a candidate linked to a porn website and again backed controversial Cairns candidate Gavin King, who previously said drunk women were partly to blame for being raped. They also objected to Mr Newman’s “wandering hands” comment about his wife Lisa.

    With men, Mr Newman just pipped Ms Jones 50-46.]

    Oh dear.

    DWH, the Galaxy 10% is from the early February poll. Galaxy was due to release a national poll this weekend but it seems they put there resources into Ashgrove.

  12. DavidWH

    Received this email this morning from a friend who lives in the Hunter Region of NSW. Do you know anything about this seat?

    “This is my sister Vickii’s daughter-in-law, Leanne Linard, 32yo, who is the
    endorsed Labor candidate for the seat of Nudgee in the coming Qld election.
    Here she is today campaigning and being assisted by Federal Treasurer Wayne
    Swan at a local function. I’m flying up to Brisbane tomorrow week to give
    her a hand in the last week of the campaign – she should hold the seat but
    the Labor Govt there has a hard job to retain power – meanwhile the
    unelected coalition leader, Campbell Newman, is struggling to win the seat
    of – what an irony if the LNP wins Govt but he doesn’t win a seat:”


    [Katter’s Australian Party launches Queensland election bid
    by: AAP From: Herald Sun March 11, 2012 6:27PM

    WITH a flurry of policies and more than a few rhetorical flourishes, Bob Katter’s Australian Party says it has arrived as Queensland’s third political force.

    Launching the party’s election campaign in Townsville, state leader Aidan McLindon delivered a series of promises which he says offer a real alternative to Labor and the Liberal National Party (LNP).]
    more in the article

  14. Can-do faces a vexing problem, does he reduce his statewide campaigning to concentrate on Ashgrove and thereby allow ALP and KrAP to steal the limelight or does he abandon campaigning in Ashgrove and give Kate Jones the opportunity to campaign hard and really screw his chances totally.

    Fighting on two fronts he is in a real pickle and so many of his family and business activities are creating skidmarks on his supposed lilly white drawers.

  15. Newman seems to have spent the weekend trying to buy the shootin’ fishin’ huntin’ vote off of KAP.

    He is losing rural and regional votes, but is losing urban votes trying to retain them. Why should the State Govt pay to dredge the Broadwater it is a local Govt job. Will Campbell dredge every bar in Qld?


    [Bligh, Gillard warn Qld could slide back
    Updated: 18:11, Sunday March 11, 2012

    Anna Bligh has warned Queensland voters the state would slide backwards to a time of corruption and environmental exploitation under Campbell Newman.

    In a rousing 33-minute speech to the Labor faithful, the premier had a message about her Liberal National Party (LNP) opponent’s claim that it’s ‘time for change’.]
    more in the article

  17. Leroy

    [In a rousing 33-minute speech to the Labor faithful, the premier had a message about her Liberal National Party (LNP) opponent’s claim that it’s ‘time for change’.]

    Anna Bligh is one gutsy lady for mine I admire her style.

  18. [When asked if he would order an environmental impact study to see how the dredging would affect the environment and surf beaches in the area, Mr Newman said he would not.

    “We are quite confident this can be done and protect the environment,” he said.

    “I’m not into studies and plans, if there is a study that has been done, and I’m telling you lots of studies have been done, it’s been studied to death.

    “This is the difference between Labor and the LNP, we will do studies where it is required, where they actually lead to an outcome, to actually improve people’s lives.”

    Mr Newman conceded he had not read any of the studies done on dredging the Gold Coast Broadwater.

    And there were options but no definite plan for where the excess material dredged from the Broadwater would go.

    “Where does the spoil go? The spoil can be used in the construction industry; it can be taken to appropriate offshore areas for disposal,” he said.

    “This material has come from rivers that flow into the Broadwater, the Nerang and the Coomera River flow into it, that’s where the silt has come from and the natural processes would have taken it out to sea anyway.”]

    Be very afraid.

  19. [Can-do faces a vexing problem, does he reduce his statewide campaigning to concentrate on Ashgrove and thereby allow ALP and KrAP to steal the limelight or does he abandon campaigning in Ashgrove and give Kate Jones the opportunity to campaign hard and really screw his chances totally. ]
    I’m not sure if Can do? is an electioneering asset for the LNP outside of the SEQ corner. He’s known everywhere as the former Brisbane lord mayor but that may cause those to the north and west to think that he will play favourites with the SEQ electorates at the expense of the rest of Qld. Bligh certainly is recognisable throughout Qld, even before the floods and cyclone last year lifted her profile.

  20. Campbell is up the creek without a paddle at the mo’.

    First – if it is “inappropriate” for his advisers to moonlight as developers while on the public purse, would it also be “inappropriate” if the business was registered in their wives names? If it is, why is it that he has done “nothing wrong” when his own families businesses are in his wife’s name?

    Second – If the LNP refuse to say who the premier will be, the LP should simply select their candidate of choice, and run against him. Three times loser , “The Borg” seems like a good candidate for LNP leadership. Time to recycle some old, and effective ads.

    Third – ‘Can do’ keeps whining about “the dirtiest Queensland campaign ever.” Someone should take the opportunity to point out that as a recent blow-in, he is hardly expected to remember (insert dirty election campaign here).

    The fact is that Campbell Newman had an easy run under Peter Beattie, who is a good friend. He had the ear of the then premier. He is not such a hotshot when the blowtorch is applied and he is a adrift without support that can make him look good. His team is hopeless in that regard. 40% of whom are probably praying he gets slain in the fight.

  21. THE LNP have tried, yet again to take a shortcut into Government.

    Something doesn’t seem *Quite Right* about Cut n Run Campbell.

    Its all up to the good voters of Qld though…

  22. The hubris of Newman is breathtaking. I will only consider being a member of State Parliament as Premier. No apprenticeship for me, no siree bob, top job or I am out of here to the private sector.

    The real idiots are the LNP machine men, the mental pygmies appear to have lost another unloseable election.

  23. hi friends
    have been in adelaide for the festival for 10 days – couldn’t log in there :((( pleased to be back and logged in again – heard the carr news in taxi on way from airport – was thrilled and only up from there! news is getting better by the day…..

  24. rua

    I think that politics is at risk of becoming the plaything of certain families. There seems to be a culture of family dynasties assuming they have an “entitlement” to hold office.

    Campbell Newman is a good example of this attitude. Mum and Dad were both Politicians and now it is my turn .

    Sadly that attitude applies across the political spectrum.

  25. [The real idiots are the LNP machine men, the mental pygmies appear to have lost another unloseable election.]
    Whoa, they haven’t lost anything yet. But they may be raising a sweat and biting their fingernails.

    Ashgrove must have seemed easy pickings for Can do? with just a girl to defeat, general disenchantment with the Labor government and a truckload of his army buddies to boost him in the seat.

  26. [Whoa, they haven’t lost anything yet…]

    True but LNP staffers (admittedly federal not state) are saying Labor has done a SA on us. Labor will hold the seats they need while having huge swings against them in LNP seats.

    Don’t say you were not told.

  27. [Whoa, they haven’t lost anything yet..]

    No but what they have done is treat the public like idiots, the lnp have this arrogance in thinking that they can just parachute someone into a seat and expect the people to support him no matter what crud he is involved in. They have truly treated the people of Qld disgracefully and I would not be surprised if the people don’t realise it and give the lnp the kick in the goolies they deserve.

    A decent democracy depends on respect from the politicle parties toward the people and not them treating them like mugs which is what the lnp continue to do in both Qld and federally. Until the lnp realise that decent governance relies on decency from both the incumbent and the opposition then this country and its states and territories will be the poorer.

  28. There is a swing on in QLD back to Labor. How big and will it be big enough only polls and the election itself will tell, but it’s on. Katter is surging in the bush, Labor in the regions and city.

    Campbell is being dismissed and widely regarded as having failed already….this is the reason for the swing. The election has gone post Campbell. Doesn’t mean that the LNP can’t win but the landslide is now unlikely, Campbell is on the nose. He’s simply being ruled out of the electoral decision.

  29. SBS in QLD are playing a lot of Anti-Labor ads , not sure about the commercial channels , as i don’t watch them. I think he will lose votes over the Rego increase for Utes , Trucks and bikes , while giving Car driver’s a freeze on rego costs. Crushing Hoon cars will lose the young vote. Just going ahead with dredging down the coast will kill his surfer , fishing and boating vote and just dumping the waste at sea ? They really are thinking the public are all dumb voters. I hope Labor just slip back in on the 24 th . the green vote should help ?

  30. J6P

    [They dare not mention the Borg as a possibility as he has already been rejected 3 times,and I am guessing this possibility is on a lot of voters minds and might help save labor.
    If not can-do then who?]

    Joe it will be london to a brick to be Springborg that will prevail if Newman gets rolled.

    The Borg flies everwhere in Clives Jets and choppers so he will owe Clive big time and Clive will make sure he is installed.

  31. Gaffhook while I agree that it will probably be Springborg, don’t under-estimate how desperate the Liberal Santoro faction will be to get Nicholls into the big chair.

  32. Rua

    [Why should the State Govt pay to dredge the Broadwater it is a local Govt job. Will Campbell dredge every bar in Qld?]

    He has pledged $40mil to Cairns to dredge Trinity inlet for half a dozen trawlers and yachties. Big joke when Cairns has some really bad unemployment problems.

  33. Dredging is a lot like tunneling. Campbell is the king of holes, pity for him that his Ashgrove numbers are also in a hole. Perhaps someone should tell him to stop digging!

  34. WTF – Katter is running homophobic anti-Campbell Newman attack ads on My Kitchen Rules. Prime time tele ads – must be making the most of his Packer money!

  35. Nice that they managed to splice in a clip of Newman folding a dress.

    Welcome to electioneering in Queensland, where the 1950s are still in full swing.

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