Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria

The third bi-monthly Newspoll result since the November 2010 Victorian election has raised more than the usual level of interest by recording a statistically significant drop in support for the Baillieu government, which could not be confident of re-election on the basis of the numbers provided. The poll has the Coalition’s primary vote at 43 per cent, Labor at 34 per cent and the Greens at 15 per cent, which compares with 44.8 per cent, 36.2 per cent and 11.2 per cent at the election. On two-party preferred it has the Coalition leading 51-49, compared with 51.6-48.4 at the election. Over the three Newspolls published since the election, the Coalition’s lead has gone to 57-43 to 55-45 to 51-49. As Greens number-cruncher Stephen Luntz noted on this blog when the 55-45 result for September-October was published, it was “easy to imagine (the government) sailed on at the level of the last poll until the Weston/Tilley/Overland stuff hit the media, at which point they dropped down to something like 52 per cent to give this overall outcome”. The poll also shows Ted Baillieu’s approval rating down three to 49 per cent and his disapproval up four to 33 per cent, and his preferred premier lead down from 56-19 to 53-18. Labor leader Daniel Andrews is up a point on approval to 30 per cent and down one on disapproval to 32 per cent. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

8 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria”

  1. Don’t be silly William, everyone knows that Preferred Premier/PM is the only stat that matters around here…….

    A pity, because otherwise this would have been regarded as an excellent result for Labor.

  2. Victorians went to the 2010 election with an axe to grind against the Brumby government. The swing big enough to lose government was the combined ‘push’ factors of a perceived incompetence (myki, major projects that always went over budget, city planning, public transport, etc), ‘it’s time’ and Brumby personally, and the ‘pull’ factors of the Liberal/Nationals.

    Victorians saw Baillieu’s team as non-threatening conservatives. Not theocratic aggressive neo-con thugs like Abbott’s LNP (Victorians voted against the Federal Coalition 45-55% only 3 months earlier), but safe, fatherly figures that would simply keep the state rolling.

    What we got was a party ill-prepared for government, led by a Premier that just seemingly can’t be bothered. For crying out loud, the Coalition has control of both houses of parliament, yet all they seem to be doing is putting their feet up and lapping up the perks of office, cutting a few public services here and there so they can appear in the news saying “Hurr, we’re good economic managurrs!”.

    This is most likely the factor in this latest poll. Victorians are getting sick of Baillieu’s laziness. His most likely strategy of only doing the occasional promise and saying in 2014 ‘If you want the rest of my promises, vote for us again’ won’t do. Plus going into the old conservative habit of cutting services that benefit the vulnerable as a sort of punishment for the dirty little poor people keeping them out of office for so long also isn’t going down well.

  3. VK

    I think there is also a strong feeling that the Nats are now running the govt. Ryan bobs up on the news constantly, Baillieu rarely has anything concrete to say.

  4. This government is only a bi-election away from losing government. scandals and ill thought comments and actions are constantly in the media and on everyones lips. Of the handful of new members, I hear the only one putting in is the new member for Forest Hill, the rest are a waste of space.
    A one termer (or shorter) is on the cards.

  5. Pretty much what Von Kirsdarke said. The victorian coalition have been a real disappointment, the nationals clearly have far too much influence and beyond that they’re pretty do nothing.

  6. The Libs/nats lied about the teachers and the nurses becoming the highest paid in the country, then they gave the police a pay rise, then the had the whole Overland sacking thing,. the community is rife with rumours about what really happened and that the ‘old boys’ the good old boys are back in control.
    The Nats are a disgrace and they have put cattle back in the high country, lifted any limits on taking fairewood out of national parks,. duck shooters can go hard. Do they think the voters in the Eastern suburbs will tolerate this,. clearly they do.
    This is the worst performing, rabble, who are barely holding office, they have the numbers in both houses , don’t know what to do with it.
    A by eleciton here and they are in real trouble,. Oh and contrast the reporting of the clear lies, breaches of election promises, and the possibility of a change of government after a by election to the reporting an media frenzy at the federal election,. Media Enquiry and Media Enquiry Now.

  7. It looks like the Coalition is not getting the boost needed to win a majority in the Legislative Council without keeping their narrowly held seats Northern and Western Metro.

    Any half decent campaign by the ALP in the Northern and Western Suburbs of “the Liberals/Coalition neglect the Northern/Western Suburbs” should cost the Liberals those 2 seats and the cost the Coalition the Legislative Council.

    If the Coalition win in 2014 (or sooner in the event of a by-election) they may well be the first conservative government in the History of the state of Victoria to face a progressive Legislative Council.

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