The third bi-monthly Newspoll result since the November 2010 Victorian election has raised more than the usual level of interest by recording a statistically significant drop in support for the Baillieu government, which could not be confident of re-election on the basis of the numbers provided. The poll has the Coalition’s primary vote at 43 per cent, Labor at 34 per cent and the Greens at 15 per cent, which compares with 44.8 per cent, 36.2 per cent and 11.2 per cent at the election. On two-party preferred it has the Coalition leading 51-49, compared with 51.6-48.4 at the election. Over the three Newspolls published since the election, the Coalition’s lead has gone to 57-43 to 55-45 to 51-49. As Greens number-cruncher Stephen Luntz noted on this blog when the 55-45 result for September-October was published, it was easy to imagine (the government) sailed on at the level of the last poll until the Weston/Tilley/Overland stuff hit the media, at which point they dropped down to something like 52 per cent to give this overall outcome. The poll also shows Ted Baillieu’s approval rating down three to 49 per cent and his disapproval up four to 33 per cent, and his preferred premier lead down from 56-19 to 53-18. Labor leader Daniel Andrews is up a point on approval to 30 per cent and down one on disapproval to 32 per cent. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.