11.33pm. The count in Granville is finally progressing, and the Liberals are staying in front: 39.7 per cent counted, 2.4 per cent ahead on the ABC projection, 3.0 per cent ahead on the two-candidate count of 19 out of 27 booths.
10.33pm. Oh yeah, the upper house. We’ve got about 37 per cent counted, and I think we’re looking at Coalition 11, Labor five, Greens three and one apiece for the Fred Nile group (on 3.1 per cent) and Shooters and Fishers (on 3.8 per cent). Pauline Hanson and John Hatton are falling short on 1.8 per cent and 1.2 per cent.
10.21pm. Seats still in play. Balmain, where Labor must first keep their nose in front of the Greens and then run down the Liberals on preferences – which I imagine they would. Macquarie Fields (Labor versus Liberal) and Wollongong (Labor versus independent) could go either way. The Liberals have their nose ahead in Oatley and Swansea, and late counting being what it is would probably be favoured to stay there. Labor with their nose in front in Toongabbie and East Hills. Snail’s pace count makes Granville impossible to call. That means I’ve got Liberal on 48, Nationals on 18, Labor on 16 and independents on two, plus eight doubtful. The doubtful seats include six Labor-versus-Liberal, one Labor-versus-independent and one Labor-Liberal-Greens.
10.02pm. Carmel Tebbutt looks home and hosed: 1.8 per cent ahead on the ABC projection, 1.9 per cent ahead on the two-candidate count of 24 booths out of 27: 13,109 to 12,162 in raw terms.
9.56pm. Slow count in Granville for some reason.
9.53pm. The ABC computer is projecting a 1.4 per cent win by the indepenent in Wollongong, but projections in Labor-versus-independent contests can be a bit speculative. On the raw two-candidate figure, with 22 booths added out of 29, he leads by 0.2 per cent. Against that, major parties tend to do better in late counting.
9.52pm. Wollongong: Luke Foley sounding optimistic about holding now.
9.28pm. Macquarie Fields: as the count has swollen from 50.5 to 71 per cent, the ABC projection has been locked on 50-50. No update for a while on the actual two-party count.
9.23pm. Monaro: lost sight of this one, but it looks like the Nationals are going to get up.
9.22pm. Toongabbie: I beg your pardon, my previous two mentions of this said he was behind – he is in fact ahead.
9.14pm. Macquarie Fields: the raw notional two-candidate count has the Liberals ahead by 2.0 per cent, but it’s lineball on the ABC projection.
9.05pm. Macquarie Fields: Labor has chased down a 0.6 per cent deficit as the count has risen from 35.6 to 50.5 per cent, with the result now lineball.
9.02pm. Kristina Keneally appears to make the mother of all concession speeches.
9.01pm. Oatley: Labor’s lead has shrunk from 1.7 to 0.6 per cent with only a small increase in the count, from 67.2 to 69.9 per cent.
8.57pm. Toongabbie: an increase in the count from 57.7 to 65.2 per cent has seen Nathan Rees’s deficit shrink from 0.8 per cent to 0.5 per cent.
8.55pm. Labor has made up a bit of ground in Swansea: count up from 69.3 to 72.5 per cent, Liberal lead down from 1.1 per cent to 0.7 per cent.
8.54pm. Labor’s lead in Kogarah has narrowed: count up from 52 to 60.2 per cent, lead down from 1.8 per cent to 1.2 per cent.
8.53pm. The Liberals have moved further ahead in Newcastle: count up from 62.9 to 70.3 per cent, lead up from 0.9 to 1.2 per cent.
8.50pm. Luke Foley confident Labor will win Marrickville, and Antony Green concurring. Interesting to see what Liberal preferences do.
8.34pm. Nathan Rees is apparently planning to speak: the ABC computer is actually projecting a 0.8 per cent lead for the Liberals in his seat of Toongabbie, although he has a 1.2 per cent lead on the raw two-party count of 11 booths.
8.26pm. It’s been noted the NSWEC site has Labor’s Matt Brown 4.5 per cent in front in Kiama, but this is the 2CP count from only four booths: based on the 19 booths that have submitted primary votes, the ABC computer is projecting a Liberal margin of 3.4 per cent.
8.25pm. The ABC computer has the Greens ahead in Balmain by 1.8 per cent, which I think is a projection from a primary vote count of 15 booths. There are 2PP results from four booths, and these add up to a 0.5 per cent Greens lead. However, this assumes Labor and the Greens will be the final two candidates, which looks unlikely: the figures are Liberal 33.3, Labor 30.4, Greens 30.0. I would assume that whichever out of Labor or the Greens finishes third will deliver the seat to the other on their preferences, but wiser heads than mine consider the Liberals still in the hunt.
8.19pm. The Greens really do have to ask themselves how, with Labor losing 13.3 per cent of their primary vote, they only managed to pick up 1.5 per cent.
8.15pm. Exit poll looking good. Phone pollsters seem to have again encountered the Labor-too-low, Greens-too-high issue we saw at the federal and Victorian elections.
8.13pm. Gladys Berejiklian was writing off the ABC results from Campbelltown earlier, but has evidently since been corrected. Peter Besseling has conceded defeat in Port Macquarie.
8.10pm. Labor at least has a high enough primary vote that it can hope for a sixth seat in the upper house.
8.09pm. Antony thinks the independent might still be a show in Blue Mountains.
8.05pm. Nationals margin in Port Macquarie now out to 6.9 per cent.
8.00pm. Hunter: Liberals still looking good in Newcastle, can add Charlestown as well now that significant figures are in, and are only slightly behind in Swansea. Yet Wallsend and Cessnock have swung very modestly and will stay with Labor.
7.59pm. Not sure what the story is in Campbelltown: with 21.2 per cent counted the ABC says 26.2 per cent swing and Liberal gain, but it appears that phenomenal swing will not be maintained when the figures are updated.
7.48pm. Labor has fallen into a hole in Monaro: Antony projects to 50.2-49.8. The raw figure of 55.1-44.9 has apparently inspired Sky News commentators to call it for the Nationals, but I believe they are jumping the gun.
7.46pm. Still early, but encouraging results for Nick Lalich in Cabramatta.
7.45pm. I thought Coogee was looking good for the Liberals, but the word is you won’t really be able to tell until Randwick booths are in.
7.44pm. Remarkably close three-way result in Balmain, with Labor on 33.1 per cent, Greens on 31.5 per cent and Liberal on 29.5 per cent. Projected Labor 2PP win by 2.1 per cent, if the Greens stay ahead of the Liberals (and I suppose there’s even a chance Labor could drop to third).
7.42pm. Nats still on track for a modest win in Port Macquarie. Tamworth and Dubbo in the bag. Torbay safe in Northern Tablelands, Greg Piper safe in Lake Macquarie. Another easy win for Clover Moore in Sydney. As far as I can see the only possible newcomer is Gordon Bradbery in Wollongong, and he is not home and hosed: Labor 36.4 per cent, Bradbery 29.7 per cent, Liberal 18.9 per cent. Bradbery will need strong preferences.
7.37pm. Labor retains: Auburn, Canterbury, Cessnock (amazingly small Nationals swing), Heffron, Liverpool, Monaro, Shellharbour, Wallsend. They are ahead early in Granville, Macquarie Fields, Maroubra and Marrickville. Cabramatta, Fairfield, Keira, Newcastle, Oatley, Kogarah, Swansea, Londonderry and Wyong are too close to call, in most cases leaning away from Labor. Nothing yet from Mount Druitt, almost nothing from Bankstown. I believe they’re looking at the high teens.
7.27pm. 34.6 per cent swing in Bathurst. 33.3 per cent swing in Ryde, compared with the election rather than the by-election. 27.3 per cent in Smithfield. 29.9 per cent in Strathfield. 22.1 per cent swing in Canterbury.
7.25pm. So your money would be on Labor in Marrickville, Liberal in Balmain and nothing for the Greens. Nathan Rees apparently looking set to hold Toongabbie. Massacre at Strathfield.
7.23pm. Nationals looking good in Port Macquarie: 51.4 per cent to Besseling’s 38.2 per cent with 13.7 per cent counted.
7.21pm. Gladys Berejiklian talking of unexpectedly high Liberal vote in Balmain, which would be encouraging for them because they were rated a chance. Luke Foley “excited” about Marrickville: swings of 3 to 5 per cent.
7.21pm. Maitland being called for Liberal.
7.17pm. Hunter: ABC calling Newcastle for Liberal: Lib 44.4, ALP 27.3, Grn 13.4, Ind 10.5. Liberals looking a big show on very early counting in Charlestown. Labor retains Wallsend and Cessnock; no votes from Swansea. Modest performance from touted independent in Wallsend.
7.16pm. A look of awe descends on Antony Green as he speaks of swings between 20 and 30 per cent.
7.15pm. Illawarra: ABC calling Wollongong for independent Gordon Bradbery; Libs gain Kiama and Heathcote; Labor retains Shellharbour; Labor retains Keira, though I’d want to see a few more votes.
7.13pm. ABC calling Port Macquarie for Nats on 4.1 per cent, but I’ll want to see more. Nats 48, Besseling 40.4.
7.11pm. Blue Mountains likely to go Liberal: their candidate well clear on 36.1 per cent with 4.1 per cent counted, Labor and Janet Mays mixing it on 22-23 per cent. Nationals take Bathurst with earth-shaking swing.
7.10pm. Limiting it to over 4 per cent counted, ABC computer calls Bathurst for the Nats, Blue Mountains, Heathcote, Menai and Mulgoa. Lower it to 3 per cent and add Kiama and The Entrance, as well as the Nationals gaining Port Macquarie. Labor seems to have retained Cessnock, though caution there should perhaps be advised. Luke Foley appears to believe Labor will win Marrickville.
7.04pm. No ABC computer results update in 10 minutes.
7.03pm. Steve Whan firming in Monaro.
7.00pm. Berejiklian not sounding confident about Keira. Luke Foley seems pleasantly surprised by the first booth from Marrickville.
6.58pm. ABC calling Oatley for Labor with 3.8 per cent counted, which would be a surprise.
6.58pm. ABC calling Port Macquarie for the Nationals with 3 per cent counted, but it also says “46.1 per cent swing”, so I think there might be a gremlin at work there. However, the Nationals have opened up a lead on the primary vote.
6.57pm. With over 2 per cent now counted, Greg Piper still looks in trouble from the Liberals – but Antony Green is advising extreme caution.
6.56pm. Early figures confirm expectations of John Tate bombing out in Newcastle.
6.55pm. Gladys Berejiklian talking confidently of a better than expected result for Labor, which is interesting as she has no ulterior motive now the votes have been cast.
6.53pm. ABC computer calling lots of Lib gains, but almost invariably with less than 1 per cent counted. I’ll be holding off on acknowledging them until I see 5 per cent counted.
6.52pm. Luke Foley apparently making dark prognostications about Balmain and Marrickville.
6.50pm. First Port Macquarie booth a lot more competitive: Peter Besseling 43.6 per cent, Leslie Williams 44.2 per cent. Projects to 1.3 per cent 2CP lead for Besseling. Only 164 votes counted though.
6.49pm. First booth in Dubbo shows Nationals candidate Troy Grant with a massive lead over independent member Dawn Fardell.
6.48pm. First Maroubra booth swings 13.6 per cent – Labor just in front.
6.47pm. Star performer in comments Eddieward calls Monaro for Labor.
6.46pm. General picture appears to be of a swing in the mid-teens; Labor might have feared worse. Swings: Mulgoa 15%, Heathcote 14%, Blacktown 12%. On that figure, John Robertson would be safe.
6.41pm. Richard Torbay apparently looking good in Northern Tablelands.
6.40pm. Only 100 votes, but the first booth in Londonderry has only swung 9 per cent.
6.36pm. Upper Hunter now merely “independent ahead” with 1.1 per cent counted. Moral of the story is that it takes reasonably solid figures before ABC projections settle down and become reliable.
6.35pm. The ABC computer is likewise calling Upper Hunter an independent gain off 0.7 per cent counted – again, don’t hold your breath. Mulgoa the first Liberal gain chalked up with 15.4 per cent swing and 0.5 per cent counted.
6.34pm. I feel the ABC computer might be jumping the gun a little in calling Blue Mountains an ALP retain on the basis of 0.1 per cent counted.
6.33pm. Antony Green reports only 1-2 per cent swing based on two booths in Monaro. Overall swing though about 12 per cent, recalling that these are small rural booths which are expected to swing relatively modestly.
6.29pm. I always say you know the fat lady is singing when spokespersons of one side or the other start complaining about the media. Julian Watson in comments reports Labor folk on Sky News doing so with a vengeance.
6.27pm. Apparently the exit poll “looked at seats in western Sydney, the Sutherland shire in southern Sydney, Central Coast and Lower Hunter”. I never know what to make of this – are the published figures what we should expect from a statewide result, or from the particular electorates targeted? If the latter, the figures are impossible to read unless you know which electorates were hit, and even then it takes a bit of work to calculate what swings they are pointing to.
6.25pm. I see the NSWEC has a straightforward table of main results for each electorate including swing figures, which is an awfully good idea. However, the swing results presumably won’t be booth matched, so the ABC remains the place to go.
6.20pm. Radio National is apparently reporting that Marrickville MP Carmel Tebbutt is working on her concession of defeat speach.
6pm. Polls have closed.
5.20pm. With 40 minutes to go before polls close, Sky News has published an exit poll which on two-party preferred maintains the iron rigidity of all polling conducted this year: the Coalition leads Labor 64-36. However, the primary vote has Labor at the higher end of market expectations and the Greens lower: Coalition 52 per cent, Labor 27 per cent, Greens 9 per cent. If accurate, that would maintain a pattern of recent polling, where the Labor primary vote tends to get underrated and the Greens overrated.
Borger looks gone in Granville with 56% counted now
Eddieward – “1. Sometimes it is too hot-Yes, you just lost the votes of eight carriages worth of people.
2. You think a typical CityRail delay lasts for only 5 minutes? Why does it take 30-60 minutes to get someone off the track? Why do trains have a habit of having “mechanical problems?” And why railways lines have to be shut down on a regular basis over the weekend? Do you see this in Beijing or Tokyo?
3. A second north shore line should be entirely underground.
4. Sure, it is hard to BUILD raillines, but it is not that hard to properly PLAN them. The labor government consistently gave the impression that they drew up the “plans” on the back of an envelope.”
1) I hope my train on Monday is at optimum temperature for my comfort.
2) Like I said, over the past ten years I’ve had to use 4 different train lines daily – they are more efficient now, and delays or cancellations are a yearly occurrence rather than monthly.
3) Aye, underground, that doesn’t cause any problems or inspire complaints from the people whose houses lie above…
4) They had plans, but eventually people opposed them. The conservatives will encounter the same problems over the next four years.
Frank
[The problem is NSW doesn’t interghangability between busses and trains re Ticketing.
Look at how WA have their zonal system , and compare it to NSW]
NSW did introduce a similar system last year (?). It’s probably the greatest thing they’ve done this/that term. I now have one ticket whereby on the way to work I can catch a bus to the local train station, or my wife can drop me off at the train station near her work some 15kms away. Conversly, on the way home I can get off at one of two stations because the busses now go from train station to train station (derr) or I can catch a ferry down the Parramatta river to her work if I knock off early.
The only problem is, every few years or so I goto somewhere like Hong Kong and see what they’ve managed to put together.
Just shows that Antony Green is a pretty good entertainer considering he knew as well as anyone exactly what was coming.
[What are the predictions for labor numbers in the assembly?]
ABC computer predicts 21.
Dovif: a shame, Borger is a good guy – maybe they can turf out Roozendahl from the Upper House & replace him with Borger.
I daresay Toongabbie would have gone too if Laurie Ferguson had been successful in ditching Rees from preselection.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/guide/pitt.htm
Rob Stroke is the biggest loser in this election
[NSW did introduce a similar system last year (?). It’s probably the greatest thing they’ve done this/that term.]
Err, Adelaide has had interchangeable tickets (between buses, trains, and trams) since the mid 1980s. Are you seriously saying it took until the last term for this to occur in NSW?
Let’s guess:
Fatty O’Barrel’s first broken election promise?
Diogenes @ 845
Any other observations?
[Let’s guess:
Fatty O’Barrel’s first broken election promise?]
I think there will be about 50 of them. He keeps crapping on about the Liberals having “over 100 policies”, which means Labor can mention every one that doesn’t get implemented.
Several Interesting results first it appears that the ALP have pulled off wins in East Hills and Kogargh.
The Greens appear to have come up short again.
Both leaders gave good sppeches but in reality would ahve prepared them a fair while ago.
Federal Implications – I think Oakschott will lose and Tony Windsor will hold on.
I think the ALP need to work triple overtime to hold its seats on the central coast and hunter for the Victorian experience is once these typers of areas start voting for the LibNats they can become strong for thnem. Both Narracan and Morwell are now a safe National seat
[Err, Adelaide has had interchangeable tickets (between buses, trains, and trams) since the mid 1980s. Are you seriously saying it took until the last term for this to occur in NSW?]
Sydneywide, yes. However, I am convinved there is a significant number of people that belieive Sydney ends at Strathfield and borders another city called ‘The Greater West’. BTW What’s the name of that new AFL team?
[Federal Implications – I think Oakschott will lose and Tony Windsor will hold on.]
I thought the word going around is that this will be Windsor’s last term.
Re Priest and Sex party posters
________________________
I would have thought his actions were contrary to the electrol act…but Hey..when have the churches ever been democratic???
Their kind… as with all religious groups seek to force their opinions on everyone..it goes with the territory…see also Cardinal Pell and any number of Ayatollahs..all of whom are quite similar
Is that Bathurst swing the biggest in political history and why was it so big in Bathurst?
[‘The Greater West’. BTW What’s the name of that new AFL team?]
The GWS Laughing Clowns. I heard it on Roy & H.G.
[858
ShowsOn
Posted Saturday, March 26, 2011 at 11:30 pm | Permalink
NSW did introduce a similar system last year (?). It’s probably the greatest thing they’ve done this/that term.
Err, Adelaide has had interchangeable tickets (between buses, trains, and trams) since the mid 1980s. Are you seriously saying it took until the last term for this to occur in NSW?
]
WA has had it for at least the last 30 years – if not longer.
ShownOn – Windsor keeps say he will re-contest of course he may choose to retire but until he says so i will accept his word
[Is that Bathurst swing the biggest in political history and why was it so big in Bathurst?]
The NSW probably said something stupid like they would ban V8 engines.
[Dr Wainer was an abortionist]
He was much more that this, his courage saw the downfall of some very corrupt high ranking police and politician. His fight for the rights of women should be celebrated across Victoria, and his fight to bring about the legality of abortion save many a woman from going through the horrors of backyard butchery or the mental anguish of unwanted childbirth, adoption heartbreak.
I say again he was more than an abortionist.
Netball
Yes, Windsor IS retiring at the next election, so you’d assume that the Nationals will win back New England in 2013.
It’ll be tough for Oakeshot too – he’ll have the entire armoury of the Nationals & the radio shock jocks aimed at him.
Because NSW wanted to remove speed camera tolerance levels and Bathurst is motorsport central?
Okay then the Nats will re-claim New England.
Mexican Beemer: Cherie Burton has definitely held Kogarah, and on Monday morning, she can launch a defamation action against Ray Hadley. 🙂
East Hills – too close to call, will come down to postals/absentees.
Unless Peter Draper moves into federal politics..? He was the successor of Windsor when he moved to federal politics and he just got re-elected today with a massive majority.
btw
KK shoulda run the line that fatty was intending to install nuclear power for NSW
Hey Herr Doktor, why did they let you out of the Zoo tonight? To feed the chooks?
Gusface @ 878
[KK shoulda run the line that fatty was intending to install nuclear power for NSW]
. . . and claimed he was a member of the Viet Cong.
Sertse: Peter Draper lost Tamworth!
Independents left are Richard Torbay, Clover Moore & the guy in Lake Macquarie.
frankie
isnt he?
Sensible answer:
* Sitting member retired;
* previous Tory attempts at winning the seat had been pathetic (3 cornerd contests with Libs and Nats) artificially inflating the previous margin;
* National candidate is the Mayor of Bathurst with a high public profile;
* Labor ran a crap candidate.
There are a few factors for you…
evan14: I think I need to sleep now. I alway get Draper and Torbay mixed up, somehow…
Ok, Nats will win once Windsor goes..
phatty oh barrell
Two bright spots for Labor amid the general gloom: Ryan Park and Clayton Barr have good resumes, the start hopefully of NSW Labor in future years recruiting more talented younger people.
i thought Labor did well to get 20-23. it was looking like 1 = KK at one time. Ah, the power of one.
Off to bed!
Thanks William and everyone else for the coverage tonight! 🙂
Finnigans: Probably will end up at 22, because I suspect Noreen will retain Wollongong.
Nite all!
[KK shoulda run the line that fatty was intending to install nuclear power for NSW
. . . and claimed he was a member of the Viet Cong.]
well, a photo from Kensington will also help.
ah 22, yes, as the Viet Congs would say: It’s a solid base. And they went on to beat the mighty USA
Via Malcolm Farnsworth:
HaveAchat @ 871
“Dr Wainer was an abortionist
He was much more that this, his courage saw the downfall of some very corrupt high ranking police and politician. His fight for the rights of women should be celebrated across Victoria, and his fight to bring about the legality of abortion save many a woman from going through the horrors of backyard butchery or the mental anguish of unwanted childbirth, adoption heartbreak.
I say again he was more than an abortionist”.
HaveAchat, I am with you on Dr Wainer.
He is among those who fought to give women a chance to live.
Lets see what #OhMike has to say:
http://www.2gb.com/listenlive/index.php
Frank,
See 789.
NSW Labor will be back soon enough. The most likley reason for this will be because the State Liberals represent little more than an amplifed version of the same crap policies that have pissed off NSWmen for 20+ years.
Final thought on Oakeshott – PM showed a 10% swing away from Besseling since the by-election – can this be taken as a measure of the degree of dissatisfaction with Oakeshott’s decision. I suspect that the number is close to that and as Oakeshott is on a margin of 12% – it would indeed be close. However who knows what produced the swing. I think it is safe to say that Oakeshott’s future is now bound to the rise or fall of the Federal government.
Rossa@852,
Eddieward is not the whinger, I am.
1. You should have to hope. This is the whole problem. People have been waiting too long…
2. No doubt there has been improvements, but disruptions still occur far too often for the system to be consider anywhere near reliable. Is one moderate delay per week a problem? I think it is.
3. Sure, but this is the only realistic way I think. The line is currently choking.
4. Different Premiers have different plans, half a billion on the Metro that was not to be, etc. If this was planning then I am a Dinstiguished Professor of Quantum Physics. It doesn’t matter people oppose these plans, the government has got to have the gut to carry it through. Additionally, why would people support plans that 1. probably will not solve the problem; and 2. probably will survive only as long as the Premier if not shorter? It is easy to blame NIMBYs and they are a big issue, but the government has to accept a sizeable proportion if not the majority of blame.
leftwingpinko @ 896
[NSW Labor will be back soon enough.]
Yes, there’s only sixty odd by-elections between them and government.
1 should read “You should NOT have to hope”…