UPDATE: We now also have, courtesy of the Daily Telegraph, a Galaxy survey of an undisclosed number of respondents in Marrickville which shows Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt set to be dumped by Greens candidate and local mayor Fiona Byrne. The poll has the Greens leading 44 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote and 57 per cent to 43 per cent after preferences. Of the 16 per cent who voted Liberal, 16 per cent planned to preference the Greens, 12 per cent Labor and 65 per cent would exhaust. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday.
I wouldn’t have thought opinion polling for the remainder of the NSW election campaign was likely to turn up much in the way of surprises, but the latest Newspoll offers a real curiosity: a six-point dive for the Greens, who are down from 17 per cent to 11 per cent. This has allowed both major parties to make gains, with Labor up three to 26 per cent and the Coalition up four to 50 per cent – a very rare achievement in modern politics. The two-party result is 63-37, which compares with 62-38 in the bi-monthly poll conducted over January and February. However, given the impact of optional preferential voting, the improvement in Labor’s primary vote means this is a “better” result for them than last time.
On personal ratings, there has been a substantial drop in the uncommitted response for both leaders. I am tempted to link this to the decline in support for the Greens – with a leader-centred election campaign now in full swing, the Greens are being squeezed out of the media space and wavering voters are jumping off the fence. Kristina Keneally has lifted herself off the floor with a four point increase on approval to 34 per cent, but she’s also up a point on disapproval to 58 per cent with uncommitted down five to 8 per cent. Barry O’Farrell’s approval rating is up even further than Keneally’s, by six points to 49 per cent, with disapproval up two to 37 per cent and uncommitted down eight to 14 per cent. O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed slightly, from 47-32 to 48-35.
A question on firmness of voting intention more or less replicates the Galaxy result of last week in finding what remains of the Labor vote softer (53 per cent say definite, 38 per cent say not definite, 8 per cent say they could go either way) than for the Coalition (70 per cent, 22 per cent and 5 per cent). A question on which party respondents expect to win shows 11 per cent getting the answer wrong and 77 per cent getting it right. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
I had the following to relate in a post earlier today – since this was only a few hours ago, I’ve reupholstered the existing thread with the Newspoll results rather than start again.
• The Daily Telegraph reports Labor internal polling is so bad that John Robertson appears headed for defeat in his bid to move from the upper house to the lower house seat of Blacktown, which has a margin of 22.4 per cent. To be precise, while “one union source” believes the polling shows him holding on by between 3 and 5 per cent, “other senior party sources said it was worse and he could lose the seat”. Also likely to fall are Mulgoa (margin 11.1 per cent, being vacated by the retirement of Diane Beamer), Smithfield (15.5 per cent, held by Ninos Khoshaba), Macquarie Fields (11.1 per cent, held by Andrew McDonald) and even Toongabbie (14.5 per cent, held by former Premier Nathan Rees).
• Yesterday saw the closure of nominations and the drawing of ballot paper positions. There are 498 candidates for the Legislative Assembly, down from 537 in 2007, and 311 for the Legislative Council, down from 333. The Coalition lucked out by drawing “group A” for the Legislative Council, which will put them on the far left of the ballot paper.
• Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the entry of former Leichhardt mayor Maire Sheehan into the race for Balmain has given an “unexpected boost” to Labor member Verity Firth in her bid to hold off a challenge from Jamie Parker, Greens candidate and mayor of Leichhardt. Antony Green agrees the entry of Sheehan could further split the non-Labor vote, with Sheehan declaring she will not be directing preferences. Sheehan sided with Liberal and Labor councillors in 2004 which deprived Jamie Parker of the mayoralty for four years.
• The Australian Financial Review reports the Liberals will announce today (and may have already done so) that they will not be directing preferences.
Latest additions to the election guide, focusing on Sydney’s outer west and south-west:
Wollondilly (Labor 3.3%): Labor did well to recruit local mayor Phil Costa as candidate to this newly created seat in 2007, who did much to allow them to retain the seat. He is gamely taking the field again, but faces certain defeat at the hands of local councillor Jai Rowell.
Camden (Labor 4.0%): Labor’s Geoff Corrigan has held this south-western outskirts seat since 2003, but now stands no chance of holding off local mayor and Liberal candidate Chris Patterson, who is making a second tilt after falling short in 2007.
Londonderry (Labor 6.9%): This seat has had two Labor members since it was created in 1988: Paul Gibson, who moved to Blacktown in the shake-up resulting from the reduction in the size of parliament in 1999; Jim Anderson, who died on the morning of the 2003 election; and Allan Shearan, a former Blacktown councillor who has remained on the back bench in his two terms in parliament. He stands next to no chance of winning a third, with Hawkesbury mayor Bert Bassett looking certain to win the seat for the Liberals on his second attempt after falling well short in 2007.
Penrith (Labor 9.2%/Liberal 16.5%): Until June last year, the Liberals had only hend Penrith for a single term since its creation in 1973. Then came Labor member Karyn Paluzzano’s resignation after admitting lying to the Independent Commission Against Corruption, followed by a record-shattering by-election in which Labor was dumped by an unprecedented 25.7 per cent swing. The coming election is a re-match between Liberal member Stuart Ayres and Labor candidate John Thain, who despite his profile as the local mayor has no chance of winning.
Blue Mountains (Labor 11.1%): This seat has been something of a bellwether since Labor gained it from an independent when Neville Wran’s government came to power in 1976, falling to the Liberals with the election of the Greiner government in 1988 before Labor resumed it when Bob Carr came to power in 1995. Outside of the seven-year Liberal interregnum it was held for Labor by Bob Debus from 1981 until 2007, when he moved to federal politics for a term as member for Macquarie. Former Rural Fire Services commissioner Phil Koperberg has since held it for a single troubled term, and will not seek another. Liberal candidate Roza Sage, a local dentist, is odds on to defeat Labor candidate Trish Doyle, a staffer to Koperberg.
Mulgoa (Labor 11.1%): Mulgoa existed for one term after 1988 and was re-created in 1999, having been held at all times by Labor. Diane Beamer, who crucially won Badgerys Creek for Labor in 1995 before moving to Mulgoa after it was abolished in 1999, is bowing out at the coming election, further complicating Labor’s difficult task of retaining the seat. The candidates are Prue Guillaume for Labor and Tanya Davies for Liberal, both Penrith councillors. As noted above, internal polling reportedly has Labor bracing for defeat.
They’ve announced they aren’t directing preferences to The Greens. Big surprise. They haven’t yet ruled out preferencing Labor to try to shut out The Greens.
I think the grimness of the outlook for Labor is the reluctance of anyone on this or the other poll bludger blogs to put forward a case for their re-election.
All I had to go on re Liberal preferences was a precis of an AFR report on the Factiva news archive, which read:
[NSW Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell will announce today that the Liberal Party won’t be directing preferences at the upcoming election. The decision was reached after being unable to arrive at a deal with the Greens in crucial seats Marrickville and Balmain.]
Was the precis writer perhaps cutting a corner in the opening sentence?
Whilst the Liberals could make, at worst a reasonable ideological and pragmatic political case for not preferencing the Greens anywhere, they would be crazy not to preference Independents in key seats where reasonable Independents have a chance of knocking off a Labor candidate.
By helping Independents win they are creating problems for Labor years down the track, even though some may be a PITA to the Liberal Government, they can’t cause as much trouble as another Labor member.
So, if the Liberals have the choice of giving no preferences at all, and allowing a Labor win; or, at no cost or trouble, preferencing a reasonable Independent to cull another Labor soldier, it really is a no brainer.
I read this post to a Liberal Party member friend of mine who told me that if it was a no brainer, the Liberals in SA would do the opposite.
The Liberals are apparnetly preferencing Independents like John Tate in Newcastle – not sure how many others.
It is interesting that the Federal government are doing a bit of port barrelling on behalf of the at risk independents in Tmaworth and Port Macquarie.
William, here is my source…
http://www.nsw.liberal.org.au/news/special-mention/liberals-will-not-preference-greens.html
Here is the AFR’s story on the Liberal preferences:
Thanks, Sam and GWV. The Liberal press release states: “It is essential that people only Vote 1 Liberal”. I would have thought this did in fact rule out them preferencing Labor to shut out the Greens.
I’d also have thought it ruled out them preferencing John Tate, which would surprise me a little.
They’re keeping the message simple, for once when they don’t have to in many seats.
Even if they don’t want to help the Greens, they are instead helping Labor when they could be unseating some more Labor MPs.
As I’ve said before, they’re dumb.
Um what?
“Labor campaign spokesman Luke Foley said the decision was “amoral” and would boost Greens campaigns against sitting Labor MPs in the inner-western Sydney seats of Balmain and Marrickville.
“By running a just Vote 1 campaign the Liberals open the door to the Greens party winning Balmain and Marrickville,” he said.
“Barry O’Farrell has abandoned principle here.””
[“Labor campaign spokesman Luke Foley said the decision was “amoral” and would boost Greens campaigns against sitting Labor MPs in the inner-western Sydney seats of Balmain and Marrickville.
“By running a just Vote 1 campaign the Liberals open the door to the Greens party winning Balmain and Marrickville,” he said.
“Barry O’Farrell has abandoned principle here.””]
– Thanks James J for this, I think your comment is the most appropriate response.
1. The Liberal decision will help the ALP;
2. Why would the ALP be expecting any preferences from the Liberals?
OK, the Liberals may be dumb, but the ALP in NSW are downright unfathomable.
Luke Foley, take a bow, you’re the biggest chump I can recall in over 20 years in politics.
Evidently it will Armageddon if O’Farrell wins.
[“Take care of your neighbour, because there will be fewer police to do that for you. Take care of the old, the sick and the vulnerable because when the health budget is cut there will be fewer nurses and there will be fewer community care workers,” Ms Keneally told the construction workers.
“And, as grim as it is to say this: be sure to follow up on the child who has gone quiet, who is out of character, who is withdrawn, because you can no longer assume that that child is protected.”]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/breaking-news/war-erupts-over-keneally-scare-campaign/story-e6frea73-1226019936047
[2. Why would the ALP be expecting any preferences from the Liberals?]
Well, they did get them in Victoria – and in giving them, the Victorian Liberals made a big play out of their act of high principle in seeking to freeze out extremists.
Who did Labor and Green preference?
I reckon if people in NSW received Victoria’s Stateline tonight, the size of the massacre in the forthcoming NSW election would be cut by half.
THe police and the teachers are already up in arms about the bullshite fed to them before the election. Heck, the police were previously one of the strongest supporters of a change of government. Now they are seeing the prospect of real cuts in police wages and extreme doubts about Lib election claims that their numbers would be increased. The promises of bringing Victorian teachers salaries up to those in other states (Baillieu actually claimed they’d be the “best paid”) lasted about five minutes. Public transport fees are going up tomorrow, too, by the way.
Heck, even the Victorian Chamber of Commerce are only giving Baillieu a 6 out of 10!
If you live in NSW and want to get a fair idea of what will happen after the state election keep an eye on Victoria. Baillieu may not be quite as incompetent as O’Farrell is likely to be, but he sure looks more like a very naughty boy (of the liar, liar , pants on fire variety) rather than a saviour from even the most dubious of Monty Python’s “People’s front of Judea” factions!
The comparisons are different here, of course. Despite its faults, Labor here was administratively competent for the most part, and I strongly suspect this couldn’t be said in NSW. On the other hand if , before either the VIc or NSW State Elections I’d been asked ‘who will be the next big dill in State politics” I would have put O’Farrell s a likely candidate well in front of Baillieu. After 100 days of the latter, I’m afraid, I fear I’m still on the money about this, but the NSW people have not realised yet just how much damage a failure of even the Baillieu variety could do them. Gawd knows what damage an O’Farrell could do!
Unless the Libs pick their game up in Vic very substantially I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a “one term” government here. The problem in NSW is that Labor are so on the nose that their chances of making it back in such a short time are derisory. I fear for my old home state. Labor have been awful in NSW in recent times, but lordy , lordy, if Baillieu is anything to go by , O’Farrell could be one heck of a lot worse.
dio
KK took my advice to go “crazy brave”
I still am tipping minority gvt to labor
gus,
nsw needs a minority govt, no matter what sort. Labor would be nice, as long as the rotters all lost their seats.
Gus
She’s definitely not leaving anything in the locker room.
The line about the children not being protected under the Libs is particularly classy.
dio
when dealing with dirt, one has to fight dirty
Gus
It is further prove that she is insane
On the other hand, have there ever been a government who had ran completely on a scare campaign, and have ran nothing on its record…. oh wait the record … that is probably why
Most of NSW are thinking we are scared enough already and it is because of Obeid, Tripoli, Orthopolis, Meagher, Dela Bosca, Hays, Campbell etc
Latest Newspoll from the Ghost
[
#Newspoll NSW 2 Party Preferred: ALP 37 (-1) LNP 63 (+1) #nswvotes #auspol
#Newspoll NSW Primary Votes: ALP 26 (+3) LNP 50 (+4) #nswvotes #auspol
#Newspoll NSW Greens Primary Vote: 11 (-6) #nswvotes #auspol
]
http://twitter.com/ghostwhovotes
“Be sure to follow up on the child who has gone quiet, who is out of character, who is withdrawn, because you can no longer assume that that child is protected”
Unintended irony. Someone needs to give KK a refresher course on Gillian Sneddon…
Why Gusface should the ALP be re-elected? Double points if you can interweave the ALP’s policies into your reason rather than RH’s big bad wolf dross.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/nsw-labors-vote-still-low-newspoll/story-fn7r7bxz-1226020032725
Oz story on that Newspoll. Hardly “news” anymore…
Interesting that the vote for the Greens has declined by 6% – would love to know why?
The Newspoll tables:
http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/newspoll-110312-nsw.pdf
It will be interesting to see if any of these 60+ TPP polls for the NSW Coalition will actually be borne out in reality.
Who can forget Rudd’s regular 55+ TPP polls in the lead up to the 2007 polls. In the end, the ALP got 52.7.
As a result, I predict the result will be closer to 55 than 60… but we’ll see I guess.
NSWelshmen better be careful what they wish for with Fatty O’Barrell and his Coalition of nut jobs.
Rod Hagen re Libs in Victoria
————————
I agree that Bailleau seems very boring and tentative,and his actions re salaries for Govt employees very bad and feature a broken promise.to make Vic teachers the best paid in Oz…silly,silly stuff
Also the conservationist lobby is angry about the cattle in the high country actions.
As he has just a 45-43 vote in the House a by-election in a marginal seat would be a problem for him….also there are some real religious loonies in the Libs…the MLA for Frankston is a religious nutter and thinks these are the “end days’!!
Julia’s hero, Reagan, used to believe that too.!
Today there was a major problem with the metro trains,as happened so often under Brumby,and about which the Libs made many promises of improvement…not popular today with trains late and delayed.. on a hot Friday !
It would be mighty hard to argue that Labor ‘should” be re-elected in NSW shellbell (and despite my comments on Baillieu’s dismal performance down here I wasn’t actually arguing that they “should”).
I’ll probably have to make myself wash my mouth out with soap for saying this later, given that it goes against all my principles, but I don’t think “policy” really counts for anything much at all in the NSW election this time around. It is much more a matter of flushing the existing muck out of the system. I doubt that an incoming Liberal government there will be anything approaching “competent”, but it would disastrous for Labor (and the NSW population) in the longer run to actually win this one.
[Also the conservationist lobby is angry about the cattle in the high country actions.]
Spot fires breaking out all over, deblonay. Growing nervousness in Aboriginal communities about the new government. Growing nervousness about development. You name it.
I’m still going to vote Labor, against my better judgement perhaps, because I rather like KK, and the thought of O’Farrell & his bunch of religious fanatic nutjobs in charge scares me.
An exclusive Daily Telegraph-Galaxy poll has the Greens on 44 per cent of the primary vote in the Inner West seat of Marrickville against Labor’s 33 per cent.
On a two-party preferred basis, this would give the minor party victory by 57 per cent to 43, a 14.5 per cent swing, based on the 2007 preference flow.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/nsw-election-2011/deputy-premier-carmel-tebbutt-gone-as-poll-turns-nasty/story-fn7q4q9f-1226020051361
Dio
[“And, as grim as it is to say this: be sure to follow up on the child who has gone quiet, who is out of character, who is withdrawn, because you can no longer assume that that child is protected.”]
Thanks for the quote. They really are desperate – Chifley would turn in his grave. For a government that has had paedophiles and persons found to access pornography in its parliamentary ranks to play the child danger card, is pretty low. It is also pretty stupid, because it will just remind people of an area where Labor has plenty of past failings. Why bring it up? Dumb, dishonest, unethical, and doomed.
The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals will direct preferences to “a handful of independent candidates”: “The seats are likely to include Newcastle, where the independent mayor of Newcastle, John Tate, is taking on the Tourism Minister, Jodi McKay, and Wollongong, where Gordon Bradbury is challenging Labor’s Noreen Hay.” Local Greens branches have decided to preference Nathan Rees in Toongabbie and David Borger in Granville.
That’s the equal lowest NSW Greens primary vote since the last election, the last time they got 11% was in Aug-Sep 2008. It follows on the heals of a 17% (equal highest). Seems mildly out(lier) to me, especially in conjunction with that Marrickville Galaxy poll.
… although probably within MOE of their average since the last election, which is pretty close to 14%
[ and Wollongong, where Gordon Bradbury is challenging Labor’s Noreen Hay.” ]
If Gordon Bradbery, with an E, manages to get elected, he’ll have to get very used to seeing his name spelt wrong in the paper every week. 😉
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-last-stand-of-kristina-custer-20110311-1bqy8.html
Good read as always from Mike Carlton.
Rod
[It is much more a matter of flushing the existing muck out of the system. I doubt that an incoming Liberal government there will be anything approaching “competent”, but it would disastrous for Labor (and the NSW population) in the longer run to actually win this one.]
Agree with that but I do hope that both Rees and Borger survive they are both decent people and not aligned to the NSW Right.
[Agree with that but I do hope that both Rees and Borger survive they are both decent people and not aligned to the NSW Right.]
The best result that can be hoped for as far as NSW goes under the circumstances would probably be for a strong, even if small, core of competent, honest pollies from the left and centre (almost regardless of party or independence as long as they put such things aside to work together rather than wasting time bickering with each other) working collectively as the “opposition”.
The quicker they can all get beyond the blame games and “I told you so’s” after the event the better.
re Evan at 26 etc. Many Green voters are very upset that no preference deal was done by Greens with Labor in Upper House and at least on a case by case basis in seats with decent Left labor members. Who does Greens head office think they will be voting with after Armageddon? And memories are long. Only fools think the nice shiny ‘Green-friendly’ 2011 Liberals are for real. Stand by for a nightmare. I will certainly be giving my 2nd preference to labor and I urge every Green voter to do the same . I think there is massive simmering unrest in greens branches across NSW on this – head office apparatchiks off the rails.
I have not argued that Labor should be returned. Indeed, I agree that it’s time. Labor needs to be refreshed with a period in opposition.
But that doesn’t mean that you should not vote for Labor. You should, even you if your first preference goes to some other group. Why is this so?
Well it’s obvious that the Coalition is going to have a whacking great win. Nothing can stop that. The result will be overcrowded government benches full of mediocrity, arrogance and hubris, and a weak, shell-shocked opposition bereft of most of its best talent. That is not a good result for democracy.
You may think that this is the worst government in the world. It isn’t. It’s not the best, and it has gone downhill in recent years, but it’s been FAQ or better over most of the period. See Mark Aarons: http://www.themonthly.com.au/nsw-labor-comment-mark-aarons-3087
Finally, you have the very recent example of Victoria, where the Liberals promised the world and after just 100 days in government are receiving a very bad report card.
You have been warned.
How can Labor in opposition be reinvigorated if they’re reduced to a virtual rump, & they’ve lost genuinely talented MPs like Firth/Tebutt/Rees/Andrew McDonald/David Borger?
Labor supporters better hope that the likes of Rees, McDonald and Borger survive, and also a new face or two, like Ryan Park in Keira, gets elected.
Robbo too would probably make a decent sort of Opposition Leader.
The voters of NSW will be the losers in all this…by the time the 4 years are up, they’ll be praying Labor are re-electable..
There’s nothing to crow over for Liberals in this…a party in opposition for 16 years because the government, no matter how rancorous, was a better option.
That gives a genuine perspective on how much the voters want this incoming government.
It’s an act of desperation, nothing more or less.
I can’t help but think of the Qld State Labor party in the early 80s, when Joh reduced them to a cricket team under Tom Burns. Then as now in NSW, the “Old Guard” faction held to power precisely in the safe seats least likely to fall to conservative candidates. I’m afraid if NSW goes the same way, the prospects are not good. It took almost another ten years, and the Fitzgerald Inquiry, before Goss won an election. Even then, it was only after Peter Beatty and Wayne Swan had rebuilt the party organisation in the mid to late 80s. The “Old Guard” would not go without a fight – they clung to power like leaches.
I could hope that Federal intervention might clean out NSW State Labor, but that is unlikley. The same brand of mindless megalomaniacs, completely lacking in self reflection, now infest the Federal Labor party, as Arbib and Bitar proved in the disastrous recent Federal election campaign. So there will be no Federal inervention. I think Labor will be in opposition in NSW for a long time, say till 2019.
I do not say this to gloat, or to goad anyone. It is just that history shows the very sorts of persons who abused power for themselves and their mates in government, will still want to cling to power even after defeat. Unless the rank and file rise up and overthrow them a la Libya, the Qaddafis of NSW Labor will keep control, and remain unelectable. The realy self-deluded amoung them will still imagine they represent a viable alternative government.
@44
But by the same token how can Labor be re-invigorated if they suffer a “not too bad” kind of loss after the way they’ve carried on, with the factional heavies thinking “Hey we did okay, we saved the furniture, Christ we were friggin genii all along, this is exactly how we’re going to conduct ourselves in the future”. That can’t be good long-term for Labor.
@45
This argument keeps getting dragged up by Labor types, but Antony Green notes the Coalition vote is its highest for 50 years. And in the by-elections much of the lost Labor vote went straight to the Liberals.
If this really was “no mandate for the Liberals, nothing positive for them at all, it’s all just anti-Labor” , the vote would be splintering among Indies and minor parties, with very little primary vote boost for the Liberals at all. But that’s not what we’re seeing.
‘If this really was “no mandate for the Liberals, nothing positive for them at all, it’s all just anti-Labor” , the vote would be splintering among Indies and minor parties, with very little primary vote boost for the Liberals at all. But that’s not what we’re seeing.’
I don’t think Antony is correct at all…just a hunch, but I think on the day you’ll find the numbers not quite as strong as that toward the Coalition
I say that as a realist, not as a ‘Labor type’ (sorry but thats a moronic label)
MDMConnell
[If this really was “no mandate for the Liberals, nothing positive for them at all, it’s all just anti-Labor” , the vote would be splintering among Indies and minor parties, with very little primary vote boost for the Liberals at all. But that’s not what we’re seeing.]
Agree with you!
quantize
There will be a few life long ALP voters like myself whom as much as they would like to vote against Labor to give the NSW Right machine the slap in the mouth they deserve will find that when it comes to marking their ballot paper they may not be able to do it.
But we will be a very small minority. The average voter is not swayed by loyalty nor do the care for incompetence.