… discuss the mid-terms on this thread.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe
Writing my own humble live blog at http://www.danieljames.com.au
Again, for what it’s worth, CNN exit polls are pointing to a very slight Dem win in the Colorado Senate, a seat the GOP were expected to take.
TSOP
How are your predictions holding up?
Hamish
[ Again, for what it’s worth, CNN exit polls are pointing to a very slight Dem win in the Colorado Senate, a seat the GOP were expected to take. ]
Sheesh! That’s a turn up!
If so, the Dems are doing better than expected in the Senate (holding WV, maybe CO and PA), but worse than expected in the House.
I think I was hasty with Illinois. Too many of Chicago’s votes have been counted, as opposed to other areas, and Alexi G’s lead is narrowing.
And unless he can push his support in Providence and Newport up, it looks like Lincoln Chafee won’t be Governor of Rhode Island. Looking to be the Repub. Like in Florida, the centre left vote is split. Unlike Florida, the centre-left candidate would’ve won if it weren’t.
[There are more wackaloon Republicans now though. ]
We have wackaloon Liberals too, even in Shadow Cabinet 🙂
Dovif
I suppose if there was a Republican who had an affair while in office, you would want them removed/impeached too? Would you apply this standard to Australian Liberal politicians, or just US politicians?
[If so, the Dems are doing better than expected in the Senate (holding WV, maybe CO and PA), but worse than expected in the House.]
That would appear to be the case.
one thing I can’t figure out with the electorate in the US and also here. Why is fear popular? The Rethugs and the Coalition it is all fear fear fear. On the other hand the Dems and Labor are all about trying to find a better way and downplaying the fear.
What is it with people?
Fear is simple. People don’t care enough to follow anything too complex.
Hamish
I feel sometimes we are still in the middle ages.
[I suppose if there was a Republican who had an affair while in office, you would want them removed/impeached too? Would you apply this standard to Australian Liberal politicians, or just US politicians?]
Well, Louisiana re-elected David Vitter, a known client of prostitutes, so …
Welcome to politics, victoria. Finding a scary thing or a boogeyman to rally against has been a useful tool in acquiring and retaining power for as long as history can recall. It’s just now crowns and swords have been replaced with ballots and TV cameras.
Well said.
Socrate
If Howard had got caught with a White house intern (work experience Chick) and had “sexial relations” with her and then tried to lied about it
I am happy for him to be kicked out of parliament, and have parliament house burned
Good question Victoria. I suspect a lot of people who believe they’ve been dudded by life want someone else to blame. The Coalition and Repugs prey on that, and provide scapegoats. Asylum seakers here, illegal immigrants over in the US.
For example, most Americans are quite happy to pay less for food, services, and houses. Costs are cheaper because illegal immigrants from “south of the border” dominate the workforce of many industries (abbatoirs, fruit-picking, construction, etc), which keeps labour costs way down. But if you ask these same Americans what they think of illegals, many will blame them for America’s problems.
Not long til Nevada!
[ Not long til Nevada! ]
If Reid goes, the Dems will loose their only Mormon in Congress.
My teabagger in-laws in Las Vegas hate Harry Reid. So I really hope he wins!
Deval Patrick reelected as MA Governor. Interesting, as the mood for a while was he’d be a one termer.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/02/live-blogging-election-night/#more-3235
Republicans with 1.7% of getting hold of the senate and 99% of getting the house
I heard somewhere that the Democrat might win the popular vote
I wonder if it was a full senate election would the Rep have won both houses with less than 1/2 the vote
Any news on Prop 19 in California?
[If Reid goes, the Dems will loose their only Mormon in Congress.
My teabagger in-laws in Las Vegas hate Harry Reid. So I really hope he wins!]
Well those of us who remember Daschle in 2004 will be paying close attention to this race. I think the allure of pork from having a majority leader represent them, as opposed to what a freshman backbencher will, may push the undecideds Reid’s way.
Am I the only person who was wishing there was a strong third party in the US, just so they too could have a “hung parliament”?
You are not, no.
Love this in today’s Crikey:
“Michele Bachmann, the whacky right-winger who believes that the census is unconstitutional (even though it is actually in the Constitution), has argued that the new Congressional leadership should do “nothing but issue subpoenas”.”
Sestak’s vote needs to stay consistently strong in Philadelphia from this point on.
[ Sestak’s vote needs to stay consistently strong in Philadelphia from this point on.]
Yes TSOP, the suburbs of north Philly are key.
So it’s hold the Senate and lose the House as expected. And O’Donnell didn’t get in. I quite like Ron Paul and if his son is anything like him, we could have had worse tea-baggers get in.
TSOP
You are right. Times change, but people never really do.
Sestak is in trouble. Very dissapointing.
Fox is saying Sestak has failed to gain seat.
Hamish
Snap
In other news, it looks as though Chafee has taken my advice and picked up his support. He now leads with over 90% counted
The Philly suburbs are redder this time. Toomey will win this.
Sestek is probably gone, the trend have went from 200,000 in front to behind now
Saddest loss of the night, so far, for me, would be Feingold. He was a true believer.
Not that he’s officially gone, but it’s kind of obvious he is.
Do anyone know the story of North Dakota, how does a Democrat senate seat became a Rep seat with 40% majority …. was there mass scandals
It’s a case of a popular incumbent choosing not to recontest his seat from a very Republican state.
If memory serves, Dorgan has some health problems, that’s why he’s retiring.
Another interesting one is Florida, I always through it was a marginal area, but every house seat in the state bar one is Red
At least the witch Christine O’Connell was defeated.
One of the key Repug on CNN just said we cant afford to spend the money that we dont have.
i suppose what he meant was for things like healthcare, welfare, education and infra-structures. But it is perfectly Ok for wars, like the IRAQ and Afghan.
Uh oh! Might’ve been some West Coast complacency happening…
Loved this tweet:
At least Christine O’Connell must be pleased to have been beaten by a Democrat rather than a bucket of water”
Paladino the Republican candidate in New York(senate)….suggested that welfare receipients should be put into special places(prisons!)and confined there .
This is a direct copy of the policies of conservatives in mid-19th century England where they constructed terrible places called Workhouses..,where the poor were fed and housed but had to work for their food. Children were also imprisoned there and the poor food was notorious for its poor quality and it’s scarcity.
Charles Dickens wrote strongly against this and his famous novel”Oliver Twist”..made into a musical film years ago…was an bitter attack on this practice. Oliver commits the ultimate sin of asking for more food !
But in 21st century New York the idea is alive and living !
OMG, you hear this at every election “The winners are the Amercan people” “This is a repudiation of Washington” “This is is against Big Government”.
Meanwhile back at the ranch, 18% of Americans are out of jobs or just barely hanging on, almost broke and crumbling infra-structures.
Disneyland anyone?
Welcome to Moronville.
Any news on the Florida governors race?
Boxer reelected.
Hehe love this from the BBC
[
BREAKING NEWS: Republican House leader John Boehner is crying – again
]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11639158