GhostWhoVotes tweets that an imminent Nielsen poll has the Coalition with a 51-49 lead, their first in any poll since the election. Labor’s primary vote is 34 per cent (compared with 38.0 at the election), while the Coalition is on 43 per cent (43.6 per cent) and the Greens are on 14 per cent (11.8 per cent). More to follow.
UPDATE: In spite of everything, the poll has Julia Gillard’s approval up four points on Nielsen’s pre-election poll to 54 per cent, with her disapproval down two to 39 per cent and her lead as preferred prime minister opening from 51-40 to 53-39. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down a point to 45 per cent and his disapproval is up one to 50 per cent. This is substantially better than his recent showings in Essential Research (39 per cent approval and 45 per cent disapproval last week) and Newspoll (39 per cent approval and 47 per cent disapproval the week before), perhaps suggesting Nielsen’s sample was skewed somewhat to the Coalition.
Other findings of the poll show it’s far from just voting intention on which the public is almost evenly split:
• Forty-nine per cent were opposed to Australian involvement in Afghanistan with 45 per cent in favour, marking little change on a year ago.
• Fify per cent were opposed to asylum seeker families and their children living in the community while their claims were processed, with 47 per cent in favour.
• Fifty-one per cent felt Murray Darling Basin policy should prioritise communities and farmers while 43 per cent would prefer it prioritise the environment – whatever that might mean. Seventy-nine per cent apparently profess themselves in favour of “a balanced outcome between community and farmer needs on the one hand and the environment on the other”, which I guess means as many as 21 per cent would prefer an unbalanced one.
• Forty-six per cent support a price on carbon, with 44 per cent opposed. As Michelle Grattan notes, “backing for an ETS before the election was between 56 and 60 per cent”.
The poll was conducted between Thursday and Saturday from Nielsen’s usual sample of 1400 and margin of error of a bit over 2.5 per cent.
A couple of other things:
• A Tasmanian trouble-maker will withdraw his High Court challenge against the validity of Liberal Senator Eric Abetz’s election on the basis of section 44 of the Constitution, which forbids dual citizens from running for parliament – Abetz having shown the poor taste to have been born in Germany, and renunciation of citizenship being something of a grey area. The complainant, described by the Hobart Mercury as “wealthy northern Tasmanian antiques dealer John Hawkins”, has agreed to drop the case after being provided with a document in which Abetz renounces his German citizenship. This was dated March 9, 2010, which according to Hawkins implies Abetz had indeed held dual citizenship when he filled a casual vacancy in 1994 and won re-election in 1998 and 2004. He could thus have faced problems if his position had been challenged in the 40-day post-election period in which challenges can be lodged – although he could always have resumed his position after getting his house in order if a compliant seat-warmer had held his vacancy in the interim.
• Labor turned in a poor show at Saturday’s by-election for the Brisbane City Council ward of Walter Taylor, which covers a strongly conservative area south-west of the city around Indooroopilly. At the close of counting Liberal National Party candidate Julian Simmonds had scored an easy victory with 57.1 per cent of the primary vote (down 6.5 per cent on the 2008 election), with Greens candidate Tim Dangerfield on 23.5 per cent (up 8.4 per cent) well ahead of Labor’s Louise Foley on 16.8 per cent (down 4.4 per cent). The by-election was necessitated by Jane Prentice’s election to the corresponding federal seat of Ryan in place of disendorsed LNP incumbent Michael Johnson.
• There was another minor electoral event a fortnight ago with a by-election in the Northern Territory electorate of Araluen, where Country Liberal Party member Jodeen Carney had called it a day due for health reasons. CLP candidate Robyn Lambley had no trouble winning a two-horse race with 1935 votes (68.0 per cent) against Labor candidate Adam Findlay’s 909 (32.0 per cent). This marked a swing to Labor of 6.7 per cent on the 2008 election, bearing in mind that candidate factors have an enormous impact in electoral districts of this size.
UPDATE 2: The latest Essential Research survey shows the two parties still locked together on 50-50, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 41 per cent and the Coalition unchanged on 44 per cent, and the Greens down one to 8 per cent (an unusually low Greens vote having become an established feature of Essential Research polling). On Afghanistan, the poll concurs with Nielsen in having 47 per cent favouring a full withdrawal, against 10 per cent who want more troops and 30 per cent who believe the number should remain unchanged. Party best to handle Afghanistan produces yet another split decision, with Labor on 33 per cent and Liberal on 32 per cent. A question on the Murray-Darling Basin is framed in somewhat more sensible terms than Nielsen’s, with 49 per cent supporting the proposition that the amount of water taken from the system should be reduced against only 20 per cent who disagree. However, a question on detention centres elicits a harsher view, with 53 per cent disapproving of the government’s decision to move children and families into the community against only 33 per cent approving. Fully 63 per cent believe the government’s approach on asylum seekers is “too soft”, with only 18 per cent saying they are “taking the right approach” and 7 per cent believing their stance “too tough”. Only 25 per cent believe Labor the batter party to handle the issue against 37 per cent for the Liberals.
[The early signs since the election in August suggest Australia could be restructuring from a two-party political system to a three-party one.
The big structural shift in the past election was that Labor handed its bloc of progressive voters to the Greens.
Without the half million extra votes the Greens took on August 21, Labor found itself unable to govern in its own right.]
Hartcher is dreaming if he thinks a movement or two in polls outside an election resembles a permanent shift. Democrats, anyone!!!
[Today’s poll will trouble Labor because it shows that this trend did not stop on election day.
If it persists, it will destroy Labor permanently as a party able to govern in its own right and force it into permanent dependency – or perhaps a coalition – with the Greens.
In today’s Herald/Nielsen poll Labor’s primary vote is down by a considerable 4 percentage points, from 38 to 34 per cent. In a poll with a margin of error of 2.6 per cent, this is probably a real movement and not just noise.
It means Labor has lost the votes of about half a million people in the two months since election day. And of those, half appear to have gone to the Greens camp.
In other words, in the past two months the Greens have taken half as many votes from Labor as they took in the preceding three years.
The Greens had a record 12 per cent of the vote at the election. By today’s poll, they now have 14 per cent. ]
The Greens need not get too excited at this movement because the Labor Left are starting to make a move to regain some level of policy influence from the Right which seem to be leading the Party down a blind alley at present.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/labor-fails-to-stop-slide-to-greens-20101024-16z9e.html
Time for bed I think!
Night all.
Forget the Commonwealth Nielsen, where is the Victorian Nielsen (or a Victorian Newspoll)?
The Victorian Galaxy thread is last thread on the main page.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/10/08/7147/
Oh dear, I put things so badly, sometimes.
I am not entirely sure that the beyond the square was groves or not. Merely that the lovely Italian people planted olive trees on the footpaths right down to Brighton Rd.
It was those trees, for my sins, we ringbarked.
Scorpio, if you are sending to the known email, I am not seeing them. And as I said some time ago, I know longer have your email address. Might do a hotmail address and pass that on via William. Sorry, too, to have missed you.
Night all
Ir may be the swing of some ALP voters to the Greens represents a censure on Gillard for her statements on Afghanistan.
Neither she nor Rudd seem to take note of the massive opposition right across the board to the Afghan commitment…only the Greens are in line with public opinion….the only ones who are ..
.Gillard is a much out of step as Abbott…and the nonsense about a 10 year commitment is just that…nonsense.!!
If Obama withdrew tomorrow we’d be on the way out within hours…and everyone knows that! ..
Gillard and Rudd had better hope that more casualties don’t happen..for a number of reasons!
Prof Hugh White… and many US writers agree that the war is lost…only the US military and Karzai and his corrupt ministers seem to think it can be wom
The other day Rudd was talking blather about “changing the culture of Afghanistan…where do they get such ideas from…..It sounds like Rumsfeld or Bush
Say it again…AFGHANISTAN IS THE PROBLEM !!!
[Ir may be the swing of some ALP voters to the Greens represents a censure on Gillard for her statements on Afghanistan.]
The results are actually almost exactly the same as two earlier Newspolls, from October 12 & September 13, which were, of course, taken before the debate.
Both of the NewsPolls show an ALP primary vote of around 34% or 35% & a Greens vote of 14%.
The Coalition has steadily improved, however, at the expense of “others”, from 41% in mid-September to 43% now.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/10/12/newspoll-50-50-4/
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/09/13/newspoll-50-50-3/
“If Obama withdrew tomorrow we’d be on the way out within hours…and everyone knows that! .”
Deblonay, many may agree with you.
Necessary, however, to substitute the word Obama with the letters USA.
Not cos I love it man, I do not. It appears to be the way it is.
Why are these polls being done? We are years from an election so there is no point, especially when the cowards keep asking questions about asylum seekers that do not glance at context or law. Why they keep wanting to stir the pot on our frigging cruelty and law breaking beggars belief.
Was that you, marilyn, letter to the Advertiser?
And, yep, stuff the polls. It is too sickening about law and asylum seekers.
I notice that the term ‘illegals’ has jumped right back to top favorite for the sheep responses to the Murdoch Press.
G’day all Ron is back , Labor Primary now at 34% , so ALP needs to destroy th Greens
Labor has lost over 9% Primary votes since 2007
Libs is up 2% plus another + 1% from Green prefs=3%
What has happened is 2007 swing voters (voting ALP) see all Labor govt polisys being attacked constant by th Greens Party and thus undermining Labor’s message to them
And at th same times Liberel Party attacks those same Labor polisys from th consevative angle , eg Climate Change and A-S
Fighting on 2 fronts means you lose votes BOTH WAYS , and poll figures show this Its time to put blow torch to Greens so Labor thereafter fights th 2nd enemy(Libeals) , one enemy at a time
On boht A-S and CC , Labor can’t win a message given both lying Lib & Green attacks
Even on MRB , it is portrayd as a Greens/Enviro extreme left taking over Labor Govt polisy and therefore destroyin oz food bowl and incr Woolies food bills to th punters
Even on Detenton Centres you got rat bag Sarah Hanson jumping th gun and falsely claiming Greens Party credit for what Labor govt Chris Bowan announced th next day
Fact that Greens per Chris Bowen had no inflience on A-S polisy was lost to public’s ear drops by Greeens Sarah Young’s public cynical exercise convincing public othrwise
Then Detention centres change DOES looks like Labor has not controlled stop th boats , and worse perceptions more Detention Centres is announced and more put into community so more bnoats must be arriving ,
but Labor is denied chanse to explain with both ‘stop th boats’ (Libs ) on one hand and Sarah Young stunt claiming sympathys for illegal boat entrants on opposite hands
34% ALP primary is miserable
It is not just voters that Greens steel thru cynical popuarism from Labor but there attacks keep vital swing voters WITH th Liberal Party , a voting block essential to form a majority Labor Govt
in fact another 290 votes to Liberals in Corangamite and Abbott wuld be PM today
Neither Hawke nor Keating faced such constant whinging cynic attacks fom both left and consevatives concurrently
remeber even Labor’s historic PPL Reform and Bob Brown on TV pinching th limelite saying ‘Tony outgreened th Greens’)…so even that ‘plus great ALP left reform’ got dirtied in minds of voters by th popularist empty Greens Party( instead of Labor’s Reform shown as a starkest contrast to th anti PPL Liberals per tonys own lips in 2006)
and peoples wonder where that Swing vote has gone from Labor’s Primary ( in adds to slippage to Greens)…on CC , PPL , RSPT , Tax Cuts , MRB , A-S
Liberals got 43.6% of th Primary vote , yet alegedly this Liberal Party gets 43.6% led by an unhinged leader with senior LNP people like alleged incompantant Hockey , Robb , Bishop , Browyn etc in suport That is a contradiction
Well MSN is a factor , but it is also Greens attacking from left on almost every reasonable left position Labor takes by sunsettling/putting off hordes of swing voters as a key factor
Labor’s own goals certain not been much help either (incl A-S people who offends aussie idea of a fair go which is not ackowleged and which thereafter is not then addressed re solutions vs Abbott’s practical alterns consequences in th public forums)
But th Labor PBers here altern could just phone th Labor candidates in labor strong State Seats of Brunswick , northcote and Richmond for coming Nov Vic election , and hear about Green untruths about Labor They even more than i will bing peoples here to th politcal reality of Greens Partys anti ALP tactics
[Good point. When was this poll taken? I know this may sound dumb, but wouldn’t that cause a bigger hit?
Thursday to Saturday]
Morning PBers – would the Greens applauding Joe Hockey’s ‘hit the Banks’ act on Thursday-Friday have anything to do with this poll? The rural vote on MDB would go to the Oppn but mentioning the Banks and mortgages was something Bob Brown jumped on quickly.
Dear Peter, sorry to prick your balloon. The last time i check, the opposition is a coalition of two separate parties, the Liberals and the Nationals. So 1+1+1+1 = 4 not 3.
[The early signs since the election in August suggest Australia could be restructuring from a two-party political system to a three-party one. The big structural shift in the past election was that Labor handed its bloc of progressive voters to the Greens………….. If it persists, it will destroy Labor permanently as a party able to govern in its own right and force it into permanent dependency – or perhaps a coalition – with the Greens.]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/labor-fails-to-stop-slide-to-greens-20101024-16z9e.html
So if you cant get the simple fact right, then your arguement falls apart. Besides, if the conservative Right can have a coalition, there is nothing wRONg with a coalition of the progressive Left.
Laocoon@1767 –
[But no! Alas, how foolish is Laocoön! How superficial and shallow his assessment! Pyne does not articulate a vision of education; he lives the role of educator, the very of embodiment of teaching to the young or innocent.]
Thankyou for enlightening the rest of us. I realise I could’nt have lived the remainder of my life without knowing Pyne is really our ‘hero’!!!
L – really enjoyed that post. Pyne has definitely been places that some of us haven’t.
Labor should focus on the opposition, not the Greens. Don’t forget the senate change on July 1. If Labor spent les time on gotcha politics and more on substantial policy debates (provided it armed itself with credible policies) its numbers would improve. The recent decision to house refugee women and children in the Adelaide Hills will help with progressive voters. So does the NBN, which I think is actually startign to highlight just how much a shrill-lobbying sheet the Murdoch Press has become.
Afghanistan and refugees is just one SMALL issue (where Labor’s policy si wrong IMO). But there are others worth pursuing. There is still the Henry Tax review, Carbon Tax (essential!) and house prices – surely the economic elephant in the room, as I have been saying for several years on this blog, adn since 2004 elswewhere. Our house prices are insanely high. That bubble needs to be (slowly) deflated.
Things will improve for Labor as various stimulus measures are completed, provided Labor highlights them, and stops the pointless attacks and focuses on running government. Do the job, and the polls will improve.
[and house prices – surely the economic elephant in the room]
The best thing that could happen on that score is to stop negative gearing.
Not only does it drive prices up to ridiculous levels, it also depletes the amount of tax revenue.
Socrates is right – I sent an email to Craig Emerson a few weeks ago and he replied saying that the Govt. is intent on policy and will concentrate on delivering good policy. He said everything else will follow. I hope he’s right and the selling will be effective.
Turnbull won’t be able to rely on Tony Windsor to halt the NBN. Just heard AM with Tony W saying wtte that a cost benefit analysis is not on his agenda and he can’t understand how rural politicians can be against the benefits of it.
Windsor sells the Labor story much better than Labor does at the moment.
Morning all.
Bill Leak has a good go at my neighboring Woodside with his cartoon this morning.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/cartoons
Off for a walk into the township with the dog to pick up the mail and Ragvertiser. I just hope I don’t get jumped by an AS scout!
BK@118
Morning BK.
Thanks for the link. I know it’s illegal and immoral, but I intend printing that and sticking it on the back window of the car. My lawyer can deal with the copyright police. Might even go for a very slow drive through the hamlet of Xenophobiaside.
morewest
I see that my Jamie Briggs is going to seek a lower house inquiry into the matter.
And I also wonder what would be the reaction to instead of housing the AS families at Inverbrackie there would be a proposal to house our own. The indigent, the homeless, those coming out of prison, etc.
BK@120
It was well before I was posted to SA, but many of the homeless women and kids of Darwin were apparently housed at Inverbrackie after Cyclone Tracy. Were there rowdy town meetings in Xenophobiaside then protesting that the the townspeople hadn’t been consulted, and expressing concerns about all the extra kids at the school? No, I thought not!
IME, when someone prefaces what they’re saying with “I’m not a racist, but..” then they are. It’s an opening I’ve been hearing a lot in recent days.
BH @114- it was fun!
On AussiePostBank:
[As momentum builds at the highest political levels to extend Australia Post’s reach into banking…]
Really? Maybe in the media, but has any senior politician made any comment on this?
[Gaining a banking licence brings strict disciplines and regulatory requirements. Australia Post would need to make a large investment in IT services and staff to be able to take on the big banks.]
Partly true – there is another way though…
[It would also have to leverage its balance sheet to provide the loans and other financial products just to be able to compete and attract the necessary customers.]
Yes. Reading the NZ Post Annual Report, balance sheet capital is certainly required.
[Perhaps the best option would be to create a two-tier service operation with a banking model based on either Bank of Queensland’s owner-manager franchise system or Bendigo’s network of community banks.
This would be aimed at those regional and rural areas where there is very little competition and which, no doubt, would be welcomed by those communities disenfranchised over the past 20 years by the majors.]
Or perhaps an alternate way would be to buy half of ING Direct, with an option to acquire the other half:
– gives APB instant technology platform for today and probably into the future
– gives APB some management expertise
– is a gradualist approach to entry into a new market; can gradually enhance the offering with bricks&mortar distribution as the expertise develops
http://www.smh.com.au/business/rural-areas-would-welcome-a-postbank-20101024-16zba.html
[IME, when someone prefaces what they’re saying with “I’m not a racist, but..” then they are. It’s an opening I’ve been hearing a lot in recent days.]
And morewest, did you happen to see on the TV news the lovely types at the meeting at Northam?
[IME, when someone prefaces what they’re saying with “I’m not a racist, but..” then they are. It’s an opening I’ve been hearing a lot in recent days.]
morewest/BK…one of the very early posts of Things Bogans Like, on this very point:
http://thingsboganslike.wordpress.com/2009/10/21/6-prefacing-racist-statements-with-%E2%80%98i%E2%80%99m-not-racist-but%E2%80%A6%E2%80%99/
Nice research Laocoon.
I don’t see the problem. Abbott was carrying on about a Labor-Greens coalition in all but name, wasn’t he? Well, that coalition has a primary vote of 48%.
Though, perhaps a bit more seriously, what we are likely seeing is a continuation of a trend that started pre-election, of some ALP support drifting to the Greens as they position themselves as a legitimate player. That’s far more damaging for the ALP, as it becomes problematic for them to win votes back.
The likelihood next near, when the Greens gain the BOP in the Senate and legislation becomes easier to pass, is that it’s going to reflect very well again on the Greens, who will be seen as enablers. It may not be the gift to the ALP that it seems right now. That said, it will be good for nation as a whole – it not such a bad thing for the ALP to be framing the legislation and the Greens passing it. Much better that than, say, the other way around. It’s just that the Greens will get the kudos, and they’ll be more than happy to talk it up too.
So the ALP PV is on 34%. That is worse that even poor old Simon Crean got as opposition leader.
Is it time for a formal coalition between the Greens and the ALP?
From the SMH:
http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/i-could-support-nbn-says-turnbull-20101024-16z94.html
Good God! They don’t expect us to fall for that old furphy again do they?
The two reports into the BER were close to 100% supportive of the goals and achievements of that program, yet they were both represented as condemning it.
I can see the “NBN Report” headlines now:
The next day…
And so it will be…
[MarkTobinSydney NSW Labor MP John Aquilina has told colleagues he won’t recontest the election. Mr Aquilina says he’s not ready to make a public statement.]
Another one gone.
And stung by my criticism of him for never having acheived anything substantial in his life apart from being a prize boofhead. Paul Howes has taken it upon himself to jump on the bandwagon to stop MDB reform.
BK
TBL is a weekly must-read! It proved quite accurate in the election 🙁
And today Windsor tells Turnbull to shove it over his NBN inquiry.
Whilst Abbott is trying to find ways to wreck the government, so that he can wrest power. Labor need to continue to govern and proceed with the policies they wish to implement. They cannot be poll driven in their policy making. Simple as that.
Just get on with it. Too bad if there are protests by those not wanting these refugee centres in their areas and too bad if the farmers want to rant and rave. Labor need to
get on with it, and acceptance will follow.
And it sounds like John Howard has slung mud at every person he ever worked with; making them obliged to return fire. He has shown that he is a man of a small mind and a small penis and a small legacy.
So far he has slandered Hockey, Pyne, Minchin, Vanstone, Costello, Kennett. Anyone else?
And he has praised Turnbull and Abbott and Kroger.
BB
Let us hope that commonsense prevails. Speaking of miracles…………..
[And I also wonder what would be the reaction to instead of housing the AS families at Inverbrackie there would be a proposal to house our own. The indigent, the homeless, those coming out of prison, etc.]
BK – Betcha it would be almost the same. I notice that our wonder media is not reporting the positives which can come for the communities – only the negatives.
What on earth does it take to shift their mindsets to show both sides equally.
b-g
Even Jeff Kennett has returned fire to Howard, saying that as a PM he did not achieve any major reforms. He was an okay PM, not great. Kennett said wtte that Howard has a view of himself that rivals Jesus.
THis is pretty clearly another poll where the rounding errors comes into play when interpreting it.
Labour down 4, Coalition down 1 and Greens up 2 leaves 3% seemingly missing.
The chart at http://bit.ly/cB7zqw provides a bit more info – indicating that Indis are up 1% – still leaving 2% “missing” when it comes to “change”.
Totalling the overall votes we find that the combined total for Lab/Coal/Green/Indi/Other adds up to 99%.
A part (though not all) of the measured change in this poll, then, is probably simply “noise” from the rounding processes used in the “headline” figures for both votes and change in votes. Pity we don’t have the raw numbers to play with.
Tips and Rumours:
Russell Crowe’s production of Ben Hur has bombed. They had to give away most of the tickets. 🙂
BH
I think in the case of the refugees, that Labor have to employ a long term strategy. Get on with doing what is needed. The public need to be educated that we have a duty under the agreement to cater for AS.
Labor then need to do some PR to show the positive effects of helping these children in the community. They most win over the hearts and minds of the people. The MSM and the coalition are not going to help whatsoever.
[victoria
Posted Monday, October 25, 2010 at 9:07 am | Permalink
b-g
Even Jeff Kennett has returned fire to Howard, saying that as a PM he did not achieve any major reforms. He was an okay PM, not great. Kennett said wtte that Howard has a view of himself that rivals Jesus.]
Seems like a typical bitter egotist. His rose-colored view of his actions and the vicious character assessments he gives anyone else will be shattering the coalition.
victoria – I heard that Jeff Kennett comment. Add that to his mobile chat with Peacock and we can say ‘thanks Jeff’ for once.
Who is on with Howard tonight?
b-g
Howard has shown that he is in fact a “rodent”
Rod Hagen
Are you suggesting that perhaps this poll is skewed somewhat?
Compare and contrast the way Judy Moylan is behaving with AS going to her electorate with the behaviour of Jamie Briggs in his. We haven’t heard a peep out of Moylan, whereas Briggs is openly fanning the flames of fear and hostility for cheap political gain. He disgusts me.
Howard is apparently available to answer questions online at the OO at 12.30 today.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/live-blog-with-john-howard/story-fn59niix-1225942381277
[I think in the case of the refugees, that Labor have to employ a long term strategy. Get on with doing what is needed. The public need to be educated that we have a duty under the agreement to cater for AS.
Labor then need to do some PR to show the positive effects of helping these children in the community. They most win over the hearts and minds of the people. The MSM and the coalition are not going to help whatsoever.]
victoria – spot on. Bowen is doing a good job but needs more help. I seem to remember that public opinion changed in 2006-07 when the media began showing more humane stories about the AS. Labor has to find a way to get these stories out again.
[confessions
Posted Monday, October 25, 2010 at 9:16 am | Permalink
Howard is apparently available to answer questions online at the OO at 12.30 today.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/live-blog-with-john-howard/story-fn59niix-1225942381277%5D
If only he had discovered the joys of blogging in 2007 😆
Good morning, Bludgers, from stormy SEQ.
[Today’s poll will trouble Labor because it shows that this trend did not stop on election day.
If it persists, it will destroy Labor permanently as a party able to govern in its own right and force it into permanent dependency – or perhaps a coalition – with the Greens.]
Less than 2 months from an election, with the challenger offering “Stop the …” slogans + a generous (esp for big earners) parental leave scheme in lieu of policies, what does Hartcher expect?
It’s … how many decades now since the bloke with the Charlie Chaplin mo & his Rheinlander mate wrote the text books on Sloganising what folk fear & Telling them what they want to hear? How many since the Liberal Party’s founder won poll after poll sloganising Reds under the Beds? Abbott’s negative Stop the … sloganising turned Election 2010 into a very polarising one.
There’s substance to the belief that both discontented Liberal & Labor voters; those who wanted to protest against Rudd’s treatment & failure to pass the CPRS, but didn’t want to betray their party of choice, “parked” their vote with the Greens. There was increased support for Independents, electing 5 (Crook, Katter, Oakshott, Wilkie, Windsor) – two more than in 2007.
* People who don’t want a woman as PM won’t change their minds quickly (if at all).
* People afraid of non-whites, esp Muslims, still want the boats turned back.
* Those who fell for the Great Big Debt and Stop the NBN rhetoric haven’t had Damascene Moments; nor have those opposed to the Great Big Mining Tax.
* People who voted for Abbott’s parental leave scheme still want that, not Labor’s “paltry” minimum wage payment.
For the 2PP vote to change, slogans must lose impact. There may be some shift when Labor’s PPL scheme is enacted (Jan 2011); as NBN’s switched on; as miners drop the GBMT scare-mongering (though Palmer, who bankrolls Q LNP won’t).
For the drift to the Greens to stop, Labor must have Carbon price & other “green” legislation passed by both houses (prob not pre Aug 2011) and same-sex marriages, too.
[victoria – spot on. Bowen is doing a good job but needs more help. I seem to remember that public opinion changed in 2006-07 when the media began showing more humane stories about the AS. Labor has to find a way to get these stories out again.]
Please elaborate on what you think they should do.