Newspoll: ALP favoured for government 47-39

The Australian has published a Newspoll survey of 1134 respondents which finds 47 per cent of respondents want the rural independents to back Labor, compared with 39 per cent for the Coalition. There is, predictably enough, “almost unanimous partisan support among voters for the party they supported” – which can only mean primary vote support for the Coalition has taken a solid hit since the election, at which they polled 43.7 per cent. Hopefully more to follow.

UPDATE: We also have another JWS/Telereach robopoll courtesy of the Fairfax broadsheets, this time of 4192 respondents, which has 37 per cent for Labor, 31 per cent for the Coalition and 26 per cent for a new election. However, on voting intention the Coalition leads 44.9 per cent to 35.4 per cent on the primary vote and 50.4-49.6 on two-party preferred, suggesting most of those in favour of a new election are Coalition supporters.

UPDATE 2: Full JWS-Telereach release here, courtesy GhostWhoVotes. I gather the poll targeted 55 seats with post-election margins of less than 6 per cent, and the vote results above extrapolate the swings on to the national results. On Coalition costings, 40 per cent of respondents professed themselves very concerned and 19 per cent somewhat concerned, with only 35 per cent showing little or no concern. People are more concerned about the Greens balance of power in the Senate (49 per cent say “bad for Australia” against 39 per cent good) than the value of the Labor-Greens alliance (opinion evenly divided). Julia Gillard only just shades Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, 43 per cent to 41 per cent, and respondents are evenly divided on which party would prove more “stable and competent”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,161 comments on “Newspoll: ALP favoured for government 47-39”

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  1. To be honest, it probably matters not which way these polls go. KOW have made it clear that they won’t be influenced by polling. Whoever wins their support (or in Gillard’s case, even so much as gets them to abstain from support) will lead the polls and be PPM before too long.

  3. Pebbles, that was a meaningless post. You can’t prevaricate on important things.Say what you think. Lead, follow, or get out of the way.

  5. Because a lot of things (including, for example, the office of Prime Minister itself) are not even mentioned in the Constitution, all we have to go by is what has been done on past occasions (people talk about ‘convention’: ‘convention’ means ‘what people did last time, and the time before, and the time before that’).

    As far as the Constitution goes, all the people who were ministers before the election (including the Prime Minister) are still ministers, with exactly the same status as before as far as the Constitution goes. We call the government ‘caretaker’ because that’s a ‘convention’: in other words, in the past governments in this situation have been called ‘caretaker’ and have followed special ‘caretaker’ rules. (There’s nothing in the Constitution to say they have to.)

    There is no requirement, even by ‘convention’, for ministers to resign and be reappointed after an election. In the past (‘convention’ again), sometimes a government which has won an election has nevertheless resigned because it’s been easier to reshuffle all the ministerial appointments by starting from a clean sheet. But sometimes not, and the same (or mostly the same) ministers have carried on without any need for reappointment.

    One thing that is specifically required by the Constitution is for the House of Representatives to meet, and there is a Constitutional deadline for this. When it meets, the first item of business will be the election of a Speaker, over which the Clerk of the House will preside. If past examples (‘conventions’) are followed, the Prime Minister will nominate a candidate for the position and the Leader of the Opposition may or may not nominate a rival candidate. If the House elects the Prime Minister’s candidate, that has conventionally been taken as confirmation that the Government has the confidence of the House. If the Opposition succeeds in getting its rival candidate elected over the Government’s nominee, that has conventionally been taken as confirmation that the Government does not have the House’s confidence and the Prime Minister then resigns and advises that the Leader of the Opposition be invited to form a Government instead.

  7. Arch Bevis should stop looking for scapegoats to explain his defeat. There are many reasons.

    Yes, he did have a bad redistribution – the exclusive conservative areas of Clayfield, Ascot and Hendra – were added to his seat. Originally these areas were proposed for Swan’s seat of Lilley, but he objected and they were moved to Brisbane.

    The swing against Bevis was similar to the swing elsewhere in SEQ. However, he must stand in front of the mirror and have a honest look at who contributed to his defeat. Sorry, Arch, you were a lazy member of parliament and did not look after your electorate in, say, the way that Kevin Rudd nurtured his.

    Just move on, mate.

  9. Mike Carlton pitches in and reflects on Peter Andren and the Indies

    [An avalanche of advice thunders down upon Messrs Katter, Oakeshott and Windsor. God help them if they disobey the orders bellowed at them daily from the News Ltd corner. The Murdoch myrmidons will be incandescent if even one of them dares to dally with the wicked socialists.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/its-dark-ive-upset-my-bagman-and-im-down-to-my-undies-20100903-14ubw.html

  10. William @ 49

    [In fact, the voting intention numbers required to make the Newspoll figures stack up are really bad for the Coalition – 54-46 to Labor territory.]

    Thanks, William. I really like those numbers. 🙂

    I guess the numbers must have been bad for the Libs & that’s why the Oz chose to hide them. (I find it very hard to believe that they didn’t ask a question about voting intention at the same time as question about preferred outcome.)

  11. Totally OT Pebbles, but is your new avatar a Venusian ambassador to earth? What happened to that lovely soothing pic of the planet Venus? I suppose you’ve been asked this question before but I’m sorry, I missed your answer.

  12. WTF. Your ABC lead story this morning that the same Newspoll found that 56% want the Undies to support Coalition. Where did the drongos at Their ABC get their information from.

    [MORE voters want the three rural independents to back a Labor minority government than the Coalition. As the three incumbent independents — Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Bob Katter — head to a decision next Monday or Tuesday, a Newspoll survey taken at the beginning of the week suggests more voters want them to back Labor.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/majority-of-voters-in-their-electorates-want-the-independents-to-back-labor/story-fn59niix-1225914017626

  15. Frank @ 56

    [Libs have all but given up}

    Please, please, let it be soon. My nerves won’t stand much more of this. So far the Libs have done sweet F A to show that can even be considered as able to form government – suspect budget costings, rants by various would-be ministers, an overall tenor of “we won, really, it’s just you lot won’t let us have the trophy”. How could the indies end up supporting such a mob? Give us your decision asap, please. It’s like some sort of waterboarding!

  16. From the previous thread, the Herr Doktor said this:

    [If Abbott fails to become PM now, he’ll be gone within a year. No Liberal leader other than Menzies in 1946 has lost an election and survived as leader. Liberal insiders know that Abbott has been a net liability as leader, despite Labor coming close to defeat at this election.]

    and in the OO this morning, Shananananananans said this:

    [Whatever happens next, Tony Abbott’s place in Liberal Party history is assured………… This week he is, at least, Australia’s most successful Opposition Leader, and has cemented his place as Liberal leader and Leader of the Opposition. Abbott became leader less than a year ago by one vote and since then has had two remarkable policy victories on an emissions trading scheme and resource super-profits tax, and successfully prosecuted a campaign against government waste in the home insulation scheme and the school halls program.

    He also saw off Kevin Rudd as prime minister and has left Julia Gillard a diminished figure after running a disciplined and focused election campaign.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/the-abbott-ascendancy/story-fn59niix-1225913605590

    Hey, Herr Doktor either you are wRONg or Shananananan is wRONg, not to mention Diog who is just wRONg. Just as well we are on the same side, otherwise i have to bestow on you the Diog’s disease. :kiss:

  18. [Herr Doktor either you are wRONg or Shananananan is wRONg, not to mention Diog who is just wRONg. ]

    Shamahan would be my bet as most likely wRONg

  19. [Abbott became leader less than a year ago by one vote and since then has had two remarkable policy victories on an emissions trading scheme and resource super-profits tax, and successfully prosecuted a campaign against government waste in the home insulation scheme and the school halls program.]

    Shamaham forgot to mention that all that will mean nothing if Labor is given the Indies’ backing. All 4 may turn out to be a roaring success eventually.

  20. Newspoll’s own website states quite explicitly that the poll today in the OO was done in their elctorates it even says how many in each of the indies electorates.

  21. Antony G explains conventions for hung parliament, new govt & election quite clearly on ABC site under “Hung Parliament” right side of ABC News home page. I see the right royal Pyne in the butt is at it again – he’s the only (mon)goose playing with a cobra.

  22. what ever shanahan is on is it legal? and can I buy it over the counter. With Abbott such a paragon of virtue where did we all go wrong in not handing him the keys of the treasure chest.

  25. [57 feeney
    Posted Saturday, September 4, 2010 at 6:42 am | Permalink
    Arch Bevis should stop looking for scapegoats to explain his defeat. There are many reasons.]

    if he still want to be in parliement just start campaining now and witha little bit of common sence by qld, next time he will be back

  29. ?
    [43 grey
    Posted Saturday, September 4, 2010 at 4:31 am | Permalink
    my dad says we are going to win.
    He’s 75 and knows everything. He thinks Julia is the best.]

    your dad knows best i would say and he has been around for a while longer than someof us.

    Grey what i am thinking they may have already decided and are studying their agreements after all i heard that Mr. Wilkie had to read through 8 pages and i should imagine that woudl A4 size before he signed on.
    this would take the week end and then discussion with the spouses etc.

  30. [In fact, the voting intention numbers required to make the Newspoll figures stack up are really bad for the Coalition – 54-46 to Labor territory.]
    I wonder if we will ever see thsi result reportted, or if this will be another Newspoll consigned to the quarterly amalgamation of trends reporting trick?

    I really don’t know which way it will go, but one thing I take comfort in is that if the Indies had already given a wink to the coalition, there would be a lot less of the dirty tricks campaign.

  31. [Dr Bogan
    Posted Saturday, September 4, 2010 at 8:09 am | Permalink
    Any one seen Fin Review today – worth buying?
    79 my say]

    was the the article by Laura Tingle, some of the words from that where posted here last night, yes will be getting copy 3 dolars well spent as the poster said last night.

  32. [Arch Bevis should stop looking for scapegoats to explain his defeat. There are many reasons.]
    Given demographic changes in inner Brisbane, is there any danger that brisbane might end up like Melbourne Ports, if Andrew Bartlett runs again? He got over 20% this time.

  33. William is newspoll In the indies electorates though not nationwide? That would represent a big shift since the last newspoll and that is pre black hole

  36. Has the oo provided comparison figures for the previous poll? It appears that the coalition has gone from over 50% to under 40% in a week. Again, why did newspoll sit on this poll all week??

  37. If they get rid of tone for Joe this will be hockeys black hole as he was shadow treasurer.

    Glad to see Carlton identifying new ltd as a factor but fairfax wasn’t much better. Grattan’s articles were similar to Shanahan’s

  38. [why did newspoll sit on this poll all week??]

    Newspoll is OK the problem is The Australian. My question is why has the OO published this at all as it goes against calls for the indies to submit to coalition rule.

  39. [My question is why has the OO published this at all as it goes against calls for the indies to submit to coalition rule]

    Because Limited News can finally see the writing on the wall and have decided it is time to accept and usher in the New Era of the Watermelon 😆

  40. Sorry I meant the OO. Thus would have been ready last Wednesday . On his writing up shanahan confusingly puts in the last polls figures and ignores the main finding of the poll- the big shift to Labor sicnce the last indie seat poll

  41. [After the failure of a no-confidence motion the PM could indeed ask for an election, but the GG should only grant it if satisified that an alternative government couldn’t be formed in the existing parliament. Under the circumstances, the independents would consider that Gillard had reneged on the deal in asking for an election and could then switch their support to Abbott. Given the possibility of that outcome, I expect the GG would not automatically accede to an election, but would instead send the PM to face the parliament again.]

    I think you are right William, the Governor-General will wait to see how things play out in the House before exercising any of her reserve powers. That the deadlock would continue seems to be unlikely (given the statements by the independents that they do not want to go back to the polls), though not impossible, and we have to remember that if the House starts to get volatile later, we could end up back in the same situation as allegiances switch (which again, I think is unlikely on the core issues of confidence and supply, but everything else is up for grabs).

    However, for the sake of argument, and because it remains a real possibility, while the Constitution grants the Governor-General a number of reserve powers, how they are actually used is covered by convention and the truth is that many of these conventions are untested (simply because we have never needed to).

    In the situation where neither party is able to get 76 seats in the HoR, the G-G could exercise a number of her reserve powers, perhaps the most important being the power to dissolve parliament (section 5). As the process is governed by convention or in cases where convention is of no assistance, through consultation with Justices of the High Court (see 1975 for an infamous example) I see there being a few potential solutions:

    1) If neither party gains a majority the G-G my exercise her power-by-convention and appoint a Prime Minister from the House (of her choice). It would be expected that this Prime Minister would then immediately request the G-G dissolve the House (and back to the polls we go). This would, in my view, only be an option in the unlikely situation where a no-confidence motion in Julia does not succeed, but she does not have the numbers to form a majority (ie. the independents abstain across the board) and she refuses to request for the House to be dissolved.

    2) In the situation where the House losses confidence in the Prime Minister (Julia), and no other possible Prime Minister can gain the support of the House, then the G-G may again appoint a Prime Minister who would be expected to request for the House to be dissolved (and if they didn’t it would be a very short tenure, as the House would pass a no-confidence at first opportunity).

    3) The ‘1975’ option; the Prime Minister (Julia) without the numbers to pass supply through the HoR, is sacked and a new Prime Minister appointed, who would then request the House be dissolved. This one is tricky as you would theoretically need to test a supply bill in the House, and have to hope that at least 2 of the independents (along with all of the coalition) would block it. As you wouldn’t expect someone to block supply but not support a no-confidence motion, the unworkable parliament should be clear enough much sooner on for one of the other options to be taken.

    4) The precedential option; the G-G seeks advice from the Chief Justice of the High Court (defacto deputy and constitutional legal advisor), who advises that given the circumstances where no Prime Minister is able to enjoy support of the House (or enough support to be able to govern), the G-G is able to exercise her power to dissolve the House under section 5 without a request from or consultation with the Prime Minister (ie. outside of the conventions).

    No matter how this goes, this is a happy time for any constitutional lawyer out there. I imagine many of them are disappointed that politics keeps getting in the way.

  42. I think the OO would go into meltdown if there was a wisper of a greens policy for media reform.

    Re the black hole, the ALP should link the dodgy costings to the behavior of merchant banks in the GFC, repeat that they are all cut from the same cloth.

  44. [ Oh Dear – Now is NOT the time or place Arch. ]

    Arch should have been gently(or not) pushed years ago, he typifies the sitting seat warmer; almost invisible to his electorate and completely disengaged from his constituents. He lost because he ran a hopeless local campaign and now he is lashing out because he can’t deal with his own failures.

  45. Second time I’ve seen something like this. Can’t they count? 76 is a majority regardless of who comprises it. That’s the whole point of what’s going at the moment, isn’t it? From an article by one David Mark on the ABC election site: “The deal formally secured the vote of Melbourne MP Adam Bandt and yesterday Labor added the vote of Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie, bringing the party to within two of the 76 seats needed for it to form a minority government.”

  47. In defence of poor old Arch, he was talking to a branch meeting. If you can’t vent at a branch meeting, then the ALP soul really is dead.

    There would have been a lot of branch members wanting to know wtf went wrong.

  48. I have should have added that Arch’s days were up a long time ago, however with the redistribution, I think his personal vote in the rest of the electorate was a factor on him running again.

  49. Bevis could go a Gambaro and recontest. If he wouldnt dummy spit that is.

    Grattan true to form has hidden the fairfax poll on page 7 of The Age, with no graphic. In fact its quite easy to miss

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