Limbo dancing

While you wait:

• The media has finally awoken to the possibility the Steve Fielding might yet win the race for the final Victorian Senate seat, which is the only result of the election still in doubt. The ABC projection has John Madigan of the Democratic Labor Party winning the seat after narrowly escaping exclusion at “count 21”, where he keeps ahead of Fielding with 3.29 per cent of the vote against 3.14 per cent. If Fielding gets ahead – and there is reason to think name recognition will boost him on below-the-line preferences – it will be he rather than Madigan that snowballs to victory with the help of the other preferences. However, Antony Green reckons it more likely whoever gets ahead will ultimately land short of the third Coalition candidate, Julian McGauran, who will benefit from the Coalition’s traditional strength on late counting. More from Andrew Crook at Crikey. Those wishing to discuss the Senate count are asked to do so in the dedicated post below.

• Government formation negotiations have turned up a number of agreements on campaign finance and electoral reform. The Labor-Greens alliance proposes that the two parties will “work together” to enact reforms that were blocked in the Senate last year by the Coalition and silly Steve Fielding: lowering the threshold for public disclosure of donations from $11,500 to $1000, closing the loophole that allows separate donations below the threshold to be made to multiple state party branches, shortening the gap between receipt of donations and disclosure, tying public funding to genuine campaign expenditure, banning foreign donations and banning anonymous donations over $50. Julia Gillard has said the deal she has offered to the independents, which has not been made available to the public, is along the same lines. According to The Age, “Tony Abbott has signalled he is prepared to consider significant reform but is yet to reveal the specific options he is putting to the three rural independents”.

• Also in the Labor-Greens agreement is a promise to “consider” a long-standing Greens private members bill which proposes to abolish the “just vote one” above-the-line Senate option that commits the voter to the party’s registered Senate ticket, to be replaced with preferential ordering of at least four party boxes above the line (seven at double dissolutions). This would result in votes exhausting where no further preference is indicated, rather than locking every vote in behind the sometimes highly obscure candidates who survive to the final stages of the count.

• Labor and the Greens also promise to “work together” to enforce “truth in advertising”, which the Greens have been very keen on since Labor targeted them with a smear campaign before the March state election in Tasmania. Establishing the terms of such a measure would be highly fraught, as noted recently by Robert Merkel at Larvatus Prodeo.

• Labor has agreed only to “investigate” the possibility of legislated fixed terms; the rural independents are calling for the length of the current term to be set by “enabling legislation or other means”.

• Tim Colebatch of The Age fancies Senate figures suggest Labor should ultimately win the two-party arm wrestle, the results of which won’t be known to us for at least a month.

• Tasmanian firm EMRS has published one of its regular polls of state voting intention, which has the Liberals down from 39.0 per cent at the election to 35 per cent, Labor down from 36.9 per cent to 34 per cent, the Greens up from 21.6 per cent to 26 per cent – overstatement of the Greens being a feature of EMRS polls. The firm suffered a further dent during the federal election campaign when its poll failed to detect the strength of support for Andrew Wilkie.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,048 comments on “Limbo dancing”

Comments Page 79 of 81
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  3. #3871
    [ it would have to wait until it was clear if there would be any legal challenges.]

    I think a person has 40 days (might be wrong on that) from the declaration of the last seat to issue a challenge. Might not get an answer from Windsor until the end of October – if that’s what he said.

  5. that was a 50/50 free kick, not sure it should have been given in the conditions though, Mooney was telling the ump he just cost them the game picked up on the umps mike.

  6. [I hate to say it, but I think Collingwood deserve the flag this year.]

    William

    Please ban Psephos. He has gone beyond the pale this time.

  9. Did anyone mention Newspoll in the OO today. Apparently, it found 47% want indies to back Labor, 39% to back coalition and 14% undecided.

  10. [I think a person has 40 days (might be wrong on that) from the declaration of the last seat to issue a challenge. Might not get an answer from Windsor until the end of October – if that’s what he said.]

    I don’t see what that’s got to do with anything. There is a hung parliament, that isn’t going to change, and the indys have to decide. There’s nothing to be gained for anyone by stringing it out.

  16. Psephos. You are right that Collingwood deserve flag this year, but it still doesn’t mean I want them to win it. Too many Collingwood supporters in my area. They will be on a tangent for months on end if they win. It would be too much to bear.

  17. Scarpat

    Someone on Bolt’s blog said that Forestry had lost four Ministers in the last year. I can’t find a list of past Forestry ministers but it would be a record if it was true.

  19. [I hate to say it, but I think Collingwood deserve the flag this year.

    William

    Please ban Psephos. He has gone beyond the pale this time.
    ]

    SECONDED

  21. On waiting for any possible legal challenges: Suppose the three independents conclude “We will go with Labor provided our three votes give them a buffer at 77”. And then suppose for example that Sarah Henderson decides to challenge in Corangamite, the most marginal seat, it seems. That would have a potentially material impact on the three independents’ position.. yes?

  22. Someone was wondering if Wilkie’s 21% was the lowest primary vote for a seat winner. It turns out it wasn’t.

    [In 1972, the then Country Party won the Gippsland seat of McMillan with just 16.6 per cent of votes.]

    [http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/wilkies-winning-tally-of-21-not-the-smallest-ever-20100901-14nkw.html?autostart=1]

  23. [But the SAINTS won – can we get that Official as a scruitineer]

    Sure but not from the counters at Corangamite who are counting one vote per day

  24. [Someone on Bolt’s blog said that Forestry had lost four Ministers in the last year. I can’t find a list of past Forestry ministers but it would be a record if it was true.]

    Dio, you mean that they were dropping like trees?

  25. [William, Please ban Psephos. He has gone beyond the pale this time.]

    I would just send the Herr Doktor to the Siberia salt mine 😛

  27. [I hate to say it, but I think Collingwood deserve the flag this year.]

    To quote Clint from ‘unforgiven’
    Deserve has got nothing to do with it.
    sad, sad, sad,
    anyone feels otherwise, obviously nutters, gibbering fools where colour does not apply. Knuckle shuf……etc

  32. [On waiting for any possible legal challenges: Suppose the three independents conclude “We will go with Labor provided our three votes give them a buffer at 77?. And then suppose for example that Sarah Henderson decides to challenge in Corangamite, the most marginal seat, it seems. That would have a potentially material impact on the three independents’ position.. yes?]

    Its also still flu season – perhaps they’ll delay un case a by-election arises.

    Personally I think the three stooge’s behaviour (Sailor Boy, sloopy and dopey) over the last couple of days/weeks/months has ensured several terms for RangaOne.

  33. I’m very annoyed, however, that Labor hero Edwin Corboy, victor of the 1918 Swan by-election, has lost his position as the youngest ever MHR to this little weasel from Longman.

  34. [ did anyone listen to the poodle tonight on Lateline? ]

    Listen would be a stretch, he had nothing new to say.. labor is a far left governement, coalition with the greens will destroy the regions etc.

  37. victoria,

    No I haven’t. I’m aware of the phrase “go off on a tangent” which means to digress or to stray from the subject. Is that what you were meaning? That Collingwood supporters would keep turning any conversation back to the grand final result if they win?

  38. [perhaps they’ll delay un case a by-election arises.]

    They’ll announce on Monday. Up till now their position has commanded a lot of respect, but if they delay any longer it will start to look like fear of making a decision. Wilkie has taken a stand and they need to do so also.

  39. Stephen Long on LL:

    wtte Whatever happens we’ll have a centre-left or a centre-right government. It’ll be a centrist government.

    We’re not electing Julia (pronounced hoolia) Chavez or Adolf Abbott here.

  40. [Listen would be a stretch, he had nothing new to say.. labor is a far left governement, coalition with the greens will destroy the regions etc.
    ]

    far centre left surely

    and I agree the coalition will destroy the regions, but the greens aren;t with the coalition

  42. [Someone on Bolt’s blog said that Forestry had lost four Ministers in the last year.]

    I don’t think that’s true. As far as I know, Tony Burke has always been minister for forestry (and all the other things as well).

  43. [perhaps they’ll delay un case a by-election arises.

    They’ll announce on Monday. Up till now their position has commanded a lot of respect, but if they delay any longer it will start to look like fear of making a decision. Wilkie has taken a stand and they need to do so also.
    ]

    I agree – my sarcasm is clearly becoming to mild

  44. Honest Bastard

    Yes. If Collingwood win. They would not let anyone forget it for months on end.
    I should of said “off on a tangent” not on. That’s for pointing out the descrepancy.

  45. No, Newell won from aweak second.

    RICHMOND, NSW 73,794 enrolled, 70,571 (95.6%) voted
    ====================================================================
    North Coast NSW: Byron Bay, Lismore, Murwillumbah, Tweed Heads
    ——————————————————————–
    1987 two-party majority: NPA over ALP 06.6
    ——————————————————————–
    Stan Gibbs AD 4,346 06.3 (-00.8)
    Neville Newell ALP 18,423 26.7 (-08.5)
    Gavin Baillie 187 00.3
    Alan Sims CTA 1,032 01.5
    Ian Paterson 445 00.6
    Dudley Leggett 279 00.4
    Charles Blunt * NPA 28,257 40.9 (-10.2)
    Dr Helen Caldicott 16,072 23.3
    ——————————————————————–
    1,530 (02.2%) informal 69,041
    ——————————————————————–
    Caldicott was an independent Green candidate.
    ——————————————————————–

  46. confessions

    [I don’t think that’s true. As far as I know, Tony Burke has always been minister for forestry (and all the other things as well). ]

    They meant in NSW.

  48. [Stephen Long on LL:

    wtte Whatever happens we’ll have a centre-left or a centre-right government. It’ll be a centrist government.

    We’re not electing Julia (pronounced hoolia) Chavez or Adolf Abbott here.]

    The only reasin we’re not electing Adolf abbott is because he lost. Why don;t Labbor people swing punches

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