Photo finishes: Lindsay

Friday, August 27

3pm. 968 postals favour Labor 518-450, lead out to 1508.

Thursday, August 26

5pm. 1373 postals have also favoured Labor 774-599: Labor now looking home and hosed with a lead of 1442.

3pm. 955 postal votes added, and they’ve surprised slightly by favouring Labor 486-469. Labor now leads by 1267, and my projection says much the same.

Wednesday, August 25

11pm. 1887 postal votes have broken 1005-882 to Labor, increasing the margin to 1250.

1pm. They seem to be taking their time with this one. No non-ordinary votes added yet, but rechecking of ordinary votes has added 131 to the Labor lead, which is now at 1136.

Saturday, August 21

This post will be progressively updated to follow the progress of late counting in Lindsay, where Labor member David Bradbury finished the night with a 1012 vote (0.69 per cent) lead over Liberal challenger Fiona Scott. This lead narrows to 0.2 per cent on Antony Green’s projection.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

14 comments on “Photo finishes: Lindsay”

  1. Bradbury, just like his new boss Jollya is gawn. Just wait until the pre-poll and postal votes are counted. we should see the votes slowly trickle back to Fiona. Dave will go back to his old job as tax lawyer for Blake, Waldron Dawson. . . A pretty good result for the Liberals, given a sizeable chunk of the electorate takes in parts of pre redistribution Chifly, including North St. Marys!

  2. Some pre-poll/postal voting stats (for comparison of these 5 undecided seats, see post #210 in the thread: D-day plus 1)

    First-up, the number of pre-polls in absolute numbers and also as a percentage. The average number of pre-polls in all seats was 6,964

    5,211 5.4% Lindsay

    Next postal votes. The average number of postals in all seats was 6,382

    5,038 5.2% Lindsay

    What is noteworthy on the postals is the percentage that are ALP postals. The first number shows ALP postals:total postals (The average percentage in all seats of ALP:total postals was 26% with very wide variance).

    The second number shows ALP postals:All Party Specific postals (i.e. excluding AEC & GPV)

    Labor is about half of all party-specific postals in the 5 too-close-to-calls (except Denison). But note Lindsay has been given a special treatment. Fully 95% of party-specific postals are ALP. This might prove to be a very useful insurance policy at the end of the day. Postals might very well disproportionately favour ALP

    50% 95% Lindsay

    Putting this in stark raw numbers, ALP had 2,506 postals. Despite all Lindsay’s attention, and despite the NSW Penrith byelection only a few weeks earlier, the Liberals managed only 132!

    The NSW Liberals’ organisational weakness may yet cost them dearly

  3. Fiona Scott won’t win. She’s never had a real job and is trying to trade off the success of her family.
    Further, the Libs showed tremendous disrespect to the folks of Lindsay by endorsing her right on the election being called. If they took it seriously, someone would have been in place since the beginning of the year.
    She’s a half hearted candidate from a half-assed party. David will win.

  4. #6

    Unfortunately for you the ballots have already been cast, so calling the Liberal candidate childish names won’t change anything now.

  5. Finally counting in Lindsay, and it’s good for Labor, as they’ve won the first batch of almost 2000 postals 53-47. With a 1250 vote lead after 85.6% counted, this now looks like a virtual certain hold.

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