Friday, August 27
3pm. 968 postals favour Labor 518-450, lead out to 1508.
Thursday, August 26
5pm. 1373 postals have also favoured Labor 774-599: Labor now looking home and hosed with a lead of 1442.
3pm. 955 postal votes added, and they’ve surprised slightly by favouring Labor 486-469. Labor now leads by 1267, and my projection says much the same.
Wednesday, August 25
11pm. 1887 postal votes have broken 1005-882 to Labor, increasing the margin to 1250.
1pm. They seem to be taking their time with this one. No non-ordinary votes added yet, but rechecking of ordinary votes has added 131 to the Labor lead, which is now at 1136.
Saturday, August 21
This post will be progressively updated to follow the progress of late counting in Lindsay, where Labor member David Bradbury finished the night with a 1012 vote (0.69 per cent) lead over Liberal challenger Fiona Scott. This lead narrows to 0.2 per cent on Antony Green’s projection.
Bradbury, just like his new boss Jollya is gawn. Just wait until the pre-poll and postal votes are counted. we should see the votes slowly trickle back to Fiona. Dave will go back to his old job as tax lawyer for Blake, Waldron Dawson. . . A pretty good result for the Liberals, given a sizeable chunk of the electorate takes in parts of pre redistribution Chifly, including North St. Marys!
Some pre-poll/postal voting stats (for comparison of these 5 undecided seats, see post #210 in the thread: D-day plus 1)
First-up, the number of pre-polls in absolute numbers and also as a percentage. The average number of pre-polls in all seats was 6,964
5,211 5.4% Lindsay
Next postal votes. The average number of postals in all seats was 6,382
5,038 5.2% Lindsay
What is noteworthy on the postals is the percentage that are ALP postals. The first number shows ALP postals:total postals (The average percentage in all seats of ALP:total postals was 26% with very wide variance).
The second number shows ALP postals:All Party Specific postals (i.e. excluding AEC & GPV)
Labor is about half of all party-specific postals in the 5 too-close-to-calls (except Denison). But note Lindsay has been given a special treatment. Fully 95% of party-specific postals are ALP. This might prove to be a very useful insurance policy at the end of the day. Postals might very well disproportionately favour ALP
50% 95% Lindsay
Putting this in stark raw numbers, ALP had 2,506 postals. Despite all Lindsay’s attention, and despite the NSW Penrith byelection only a few weeks earlier, the Liberals managed only 132!
The NSW Liberals’ organisational weakness may yet cost them dearly
The AEC still has the ALP in front in Lindsay…
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-128.htm
Labor 37,309 50.69%
Liberal 36,297 49.31%
You’re right Laocoon. I got a htv postal from ALP in the pots but nothing from the Libs. Thank God for that!
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-128.htm
Labor 37,329 50.69%
Liberal 36,312 49.31%
Looks like they’re getting down into the preference allocations, re-allocation of abllots, and a few numbers are just washing out.
Four hours to count 35 votes? 20-15 (ALP-Lib)
Fiona Scott won’t win. She’s never had a real job and is trying to trade off the success of her family.
Further, the Libs showed tremendous disrespect to the folks of Lindsay by endorsing her right on the election being called. If they took it seriously, someone would have been in place since the beginning of the year.
She’s a half hearted candidate from a half-assed party. David will win.
Last time the effect of pre-poll and postals on a tpp basis was
-.5% Labor. Question is whether this effect was becaus of Coalition in power or the demographic of those who vote in this way.
http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefsByVoteType-13745-128.htm
#6
Unfortunately for you the ballots have already been cast, so calling the Liberal candidate childish names won’t change anything now.
Was there any counting here today? Doesn’t seem to have been updated.
yes there was counting, there was even a technical error by the AEC on numbers, and it took Bradbury and the ALP publicising that they are 1035 votes ahead only 1 hour ago.
Finally counting in Lindsay, and it’s good for Labor, as they’ve won the first batch of almost 2000 postals 53-47. With a 1250 vote lead after 85.6% counted, this now looks like a virtual certain hold.
Also a virtual certain hold in Greenway, where Labor has won the 1st batch of postals 52-48.
Yep, that’s how I see it too Lord D. Whilst there could be a sudden reversal, the biggest concern now is Corangamite.
All over, red rover.