The Australian offers geographic and demographic breakdowns of the last two Newspoll surveys, achieving reasonable samples from each subset due to the unusually large samples (around 1700) Newspoll uses during the election period. Age breakdowns offer the interesting finding that Labor has bounced back under Gillard in the 35-49 bracket, but if anything gone backwards among the young and old – or rather, remained stable on the primary vote while the Coalition has picked up a few points. The gender gap is four points on voting intention, seven on Gillard’s approval rating and ten on preferred prime minister, and appears to have widened steadily through the year on Tony Abbott’s approval.
The state breakdowns give us a useful opportunity to confirm their findings with Nielsen, the Fairfax papers having conducted a similar exercise from the three most recent polls (extending it to four for South Australia and Western Australia to boost the sample). I also offer a third measure of what the betting markets think, which involves a rough estimate of the statewide swings suggested by the odds SportingBet and SportsBet are offering on individual seats (more on this subject from occasional Poll Bludger commenter Dr Good). The table shows Labor’s two-party preferred vote:
| 2007 | Newspoll | Nielsen | Bookies | |
| NSW | 53.7% | 49% | 51% | 53% |
| Vic | 54.3% | 59% | 54% | 54% |
| Qld | 50.4% | 46% | 47% | 47% |
| WA | 46.7% | 46% | 46% | 46% |
| SA | 52.4% | 56% | 51% | 53% |
Some further (alleged) intelligence courtesy of internal polling:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Liberal polling in NSW has them doing “well” in “about five Labor-held marginal seats”, which include Macquarie and Robertson and to a lesser extent Dobell. The other two presumably include Gilmore, with a fifth harder to identify: the pendulum suggests Bennelong, Eden-Monaro and Page, where in each case the markets favour Labor. However, they Liberals were also said to be in trouble in Hughes and Macarthur. In Queensland, Leichardt and Dawson are said to be at risk, but Labor looks set to hold Longman and Flynn.
• The West Australian reports Nationals polling has Wilson Tuckey leading them in O’Connor by just 51-49, from primary votes of 38 per cent for Tuckey, 23 per cent for Nationals candidate Tony Crook, 21 per cent for Labor and 8 per cent for the Greens, with 10 per cent undecided.
• Markus Mannheim of the Canberra Times reports Liberal polling in the ACT shows the Greens vote actually falling since the 2007 election, which if accurate would put their dream of a Senate seat well beyond reach, if the Democrats’ decision to direct preferences to the Liberals hadn’t done it already.
We’ve had conflicting reports in recent days on party finances and campaign spending:
• Richard Gluyas of The Australian today reports the Liberals are struggling to raise funds. A media-buying source is quoted saying Labor ad spending has been especially conspicuous in the past week, with $19 million in advertising commitments for the length of the campaign splitting “55:45 in favour of Labor”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald, by contrast, reports Liberal television advertising has been 51 per cent more active than Labor’s, “as measured by audience exposure”:
Labor officials wondered aloud where a cash-strapped Liberal Party had managed to find the money, an answer which will not be disclosed officially for a year and a half. And the Liberals were struck by the fact that Labor had all but withdrawn from the advertising market in the second week of the campaign. After an active first week, Labor advertising airtime fell to zero in Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth, and near zero in Sydney, in week two. Labor continued normal campaign-level advertising only in Brisbane, presumably reflecting the high concentration of at-risk seats in Queensland. In a week in which Labor was taking a hiding in the news media and in the polls, the party decided to stop trying to reach voters with paid advertising as it husbanded its resources. “Labor have obviously come off for a reason,” Mr Durrant said. “I can’t see that it would be because they have run out of money but more likely it is a strategic decision to perhaps blitz the market in the final stretches when people are closer to making a decision, which could be quite smart given how much coverage and PR is being generated by them both.”
I can only say that the the Liberal Party doesn’t seem starved for funds in Western Australia. As well as running highly visible campaigns even in Labor’s safest seats, there is talk the state branch has found $1 million to spare for the national campaign.
So much for what they’re doing with their own money – here’s some of what they have planned for ours.
Petrie (Labor 2.3%): Last week Labor promised to spend $742 million building a fabled rail line from Petrie to Kippa-Ring. The Liberals responded by bringing forward their own planned announcement that $750 million would be put into the project. This evidently came as news to LNP Petrie candidate Dean Teasdale, whose initial reaction to Labor’s announcement was that this was not the time for such an expensive project. Tony Koch of The Australian notes the rail link has been the subject of fruitless election promises for 40 years, and it was first proposed as far back as the 1890s. The state government dropped plans to build the link six years ago after a study suggested it would be unviable, but last year was reported to be pushing to get the project “shovel ready” so it could be considered for federal funds. It emerged as an issue in the state election last March when Shadow Transport Minister Fiona Simpson flew solo with a promise it would be built by 2016, causing great embarrassment to her party.
Leichhardt (Labor 4.1%), Dawson (Labor 2.4%), Flynn (Labor 2.3%), Herbert (notional Labor 0.4%) and Hinkler (Nationals 1.5%): Queensland’s regional coastal seats were clearly the target of Tony Abbott’s announcement last week that they would limit the future expansion of marine parks, by requiring “peer-reviewed scientific evidence of a threat to marine diversity”. The announcement was made at Mackay in Dawson. Mackay has also been the scene of a bidding war over the construction of a new ring road: Wayne Swan promised $10 million for a feasibility study into a new ring road one week into the campaign, and Tony Abbott trumped him two days later by promising $30 million for design and engineering work.
Hasluck (Labor 1.0%) and Swan (notional Labor 0.3%): Labor last week promised to provide $480 million of $600 million sought by the Western Australian government to improve roads around Perth Airport, which will include widening Tonkin Highway to a six-lane freeway. There was also an as yet uncosted promise to provide funding to an upgrade of 4 kilometres of Great Eastern Highway.
Bass (Labor 1.0%): Last week Labor promised $11.5 million in finding for Launceston’s flood levees as part of the Natural Disaster Resilience Program.
Sturt (Liberal 0.9%) and Makin (Labor 7.7%): The Prime Minister last week announced $100 million in funding for stormwater harvesting and reuse, the first cab off the rank being a $10 million contribution to a pitch for $33 million by councils in eastern Adelaide. With the councils to fund half the cost, this left a $6 million hole which Labor wanted filled by a previously reluctant state government. The next day Tony Abbott trumped Labor by promising to put up the full $16.5 million. The Coalition has also promised $7.5 million to improve Fosters and Gorge roads in Sturt.
Gilmore (notional Labor 0.2%): Late last week Tony Abbott promised $20 million to upgrade a notorious section of the Princes Highway between Ulladulla and Batemans Bay.
Legal action:
• The GetUp!-sponsored legal challenge against the law requiring the electoral roll to close on the day the writs are issued will be heard in the High Court tomorrow. According to the Australin Financial Review, GetUp! will be supported by most of the legal team that acted for Vickie Roach in the 2007 action that overturned a Howard government law prohibiting prisoners from voting.
• A “Tasmanian antique dealer” has launched a legal challenge against Eric Abetz’s right to sit in parliament, arguing he remains a citizen of Germany, from which he emigrated in 1961 at the age of three. Constitutional expert and Labor preselection aspirant George Williams tells The Hobart Mercury there are “numerous pitfalls for any politician born overseas, or whose parents or even grandparents had been born overseas, to fall into, unawares and without intent, which could make them ineligible to sit in Parliament”.
Finally, there has as always been some interesting wash-up from the unveiling of Senate group voting tickets on Sunday, which I have summarised for an article in Crikey. Note the launch of the new awareness-raising website Below the Line, on which voters are encouraged to order and then print out their own Senate “how to vote” card.
Bernardi (he’s on Agenda) is a real class act, I must say.
[On a uniform swing]
which all the analysis is telling us isn’t the case – the swings being reported are uneven in the marginals so you can’t extrapolate from a statewide swing with any degree of confidence.
sykesie.
You could well be right. Based on that effect, Labor will do okay.
BK
Bernardi class act. Are you being sarcastic??
victoria
In the most extreme way!
Dovif – wasn’t there a poll just last week showing Kelly miles ahead in Eden-Monaro?
BK
Thank goodness. I was starting to question your judgment.
babunin, did you read my post … I am saying only 8 of 15 seats need to change hand, I am not saying all 15 seats change hands on a uniform swing
If it was an uniform swing, LNP will have a 14 seats majority
BK
Work is beckoning.
What is your perspective on Abbott Gaffe, will it have a long term effect?
victoria
I’m disappointed. How COULD you?
Went to the Isaacs campaign launch in Chelsea last night. Greg Combet gave a very powerful speech when introducing local member Mark Dreyfus. Spoke virtually without notes. Hopefully he will be senior minister in 3 weeks time.
Labor should try to get Combet a higher profile in the media campaigning, especially on the economy.
Why don’t the Liberals seek funding from the breweries in exchange for the removal of standard drink information on bottles and the removal of TV advertising concerning excessive alcohol consumption? Why don’t they seek out local car manufacturers and ask for donations with the understanding that laws requiring seat belts to be fitted to new vehicles will no longer be required? What about removal of warnings on home swimming pool fences? Is that up for sale as well?
The Liberal party is morally bankrupt.
[http://www.mamamia.com.au/weblog/2010/08/tony-abbott-do-women-hate-him.html/comment-page-2]
MAY I SUGGEST YOU READ THIS blogg and pass it to all your friends for their face book
the LINK i mean.
I have taken up the challenge will you
victoria
Re Abbott gaffe. I think the worst part of it has been the way in which he is trying to extricate himself from it. It may have legs.
BK
I apologise. This election is affecting my critical thinking capacity!!
[It is absolutely disgusting that the Liberal Party takes money from tabacco companies.]
The Liberals ARE disgusting, period.
They virtually accused the Labor Party of industrial manslaughter in the Home Insulation program. Though the victims were employed by private enterprise – Liberal heartland constituency.
How will they look if Labor sheets home to THEM deaths from tobacco?
They resisted a tax increase aimed at reducing tobacco consumption.
They oppose plain-packaging laws aimed at reducing consumption.
They take donations from tobacco companies – an industry with death and disease its only ‘products’.
Some Liberals (Abbott, Minchin) dispute the harmful health effects of smoking.
They take money OUT of public health spending.
The Liberals are bad for your health, and a blight upon this sad country. A pack of disgusting ********.
BK
Abbott sure has handled it poorly. Does not reflect well on his leadership skills at all.
Bernardi is another Minchin acolyte. Some of the Minchin acolytes have defected to Family First – the liberals aren’t conservative enough for them (e.g. Bob Randall). Makes me proud to be South Australian … not! Then we have Jamie Briggs …
Tom, I think those are good points of attack for the ALP. They should emphasise that they don’t believe in a nanny state though.
William, just want to say, excellent post. – The work you do in your intros for each blog often goes unremarked, so thought I’d let you know you do good work!
Grog
You are right. Thanks William for all the information you provide.
Work calls.
Check in later.
Go Julia!!
The risks of going to far on the Abbott gaffe is it could provoke an anti-feminist backlash. Personally, I’m proud to call myself a feminist, but I know a lot of men and women have a very violent reaction to feminism in general. Even in my Women’s Studies units at university most of the girls in the class were hesitant to associate themselves with feminism.
Jason Clare (Parliamentary Secretaryfor Employment) comes across very well on Agenda.
But then again, Ivan Milat would come over well if he were up against Cory Bernardi.
Cuppa
If the Tobacco industry was so bad, why haven’t it been banned by the ALP?
Quit simply Tobacco, Alcopop and Mining tax rises were …. oh! shit we stuffed the budget, now where do we get more money policy from the highest taxing government in Australian history
Hartcher finally turns his attention to Abbott.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/surplus-blunder-reveals-coalitions-economic-woes-20100803-115g5.html?autostart=1
Listened to Delroy last night and he was doing a good job criticising Abbott albeit in a rather subliminal way regarding the libs PPL scheme. And especially of interest was that the majority of callers either thought the liberals scheme was stupid and preffered the ALP scheme. Who would have thought ?
BigBob
And what a wonderful first paragraph in the article!
[Tony Abbott is offering Australia a faith-based economics policy – because there’s such a lack of vital detail that it requires deep belief in Abbott and his team.]
[babunin, did you read my post … I am saying only 8 of 15 seats need to change hand, I am not saying all 15 seats change hands on a uniform swing]
well the experts here say 18 i read a few weeks ago because one pb thought it was 6/8 and then one of the guys who specialises in this came on the screen and put the
they wtte to win back 18
Ok, I’ve had this!
WTF is WTTE?
Burgey, ‘word to the effect’ I believe.
BK, I thought the second paragraph was a killer….
[And that’s hard, because none of the Coalition economics team has even one day’s experience managing a national economy.]
ok, thanks 🙂
This election is looking more and more like the Bush v Gore election of 2000. The one where Bush ran as the ‘compassionate conservative’ and Gore got scared so he moved away from his firm environmnetal beliefs.
And it was finally decided in Florida (ie Brisvegas).
The Australian, 04 May 2010
[Senator Nick Minchin praises smokers for ‘dying early’
A senior Liberal politician has encouraged smokers to keep up their habit, saying smokers who die early save the health system money.
Senator Nick Minchin has criticised the Federal Government’s plan to increase the tax on cigarettes as he told smokers to: “Go for it”.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/senator-nick-minchin-praises-smokers-for-dying-early/story-fn3dxity-1225861798456
Nick Minchin was a sceptic on tobacco
The Australian, 01 December 2009
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/nick-minchin-was-a-sceptic-on-tobacco/story-e6frgczf-1225805535960
Dovif,
Of course it’s hte highest taxing government in history, as was the Howard government in it’s time. Inflation, salary growth, etc. make it inevitable that the tax take goes up.
Having said that, by your own reasoning, this must be a good government because they are the first government in a long time to actually decrease their taxation revenue in the 2008-09 financial year.
I’ll say it again, I am glad that you will never lecture me on economics.
Yeah, except as far as I know Tony’s brother isn’t the Governor Brisbane.
Nick Minchin has a few screws loose.
[The Liberal party is morally bankrupt.]
Until recently I thought it was financially bankrupt as well (those great economic management skills), so it is not surprising that they will sell out to any large business lobby for cash.
This is a general point that Labor can attack/question: what deals have the Liberals done with big business to get campaign dollars? We don’t know, because the Libs blocked legislation to make campaign donations more transparent in the Senate.
Labor should:
– say they will send the political party funding rules back to the senate if the numbers change
– confirm it does not take donations from tobacco companies
– confirm it is committed to reducing smoking and improving the health system
– confirm it will stick to the mining tax compromise and use the money for more super as promised
– ask the Libs what other large corporate donations have they accepted, and what other promises have they made to get it?
– has Abbott done a deal with Rupert Murdoch regarding media ownership laws?
This is a good area for Labor to atack: it undermines both the Libs credibility and their economic management claims. How can they be good economic managers if they are already compromised by promises to big business to unwind reforms. That is just going down the American path of deregulation, and we all know where that ended. With Peter Costello gone, what does the Liberals claim of economic management skills rest on? Who has them?
[Yeah, except as far as I know Tony’s brother isn’t the Governor Brisbane.]
Abbott’s breed like Abbott’s. You never know where his kin are. 😉
Clearly under Nich Minchin’s policy: You have lung cancer, do you smoke? Yes! Here are the suicide pills the system isn’t funded to help you.
[If those Newspoll and Nielsen figures are true and hold up it’s looking like game over for Labor]
And if they’re not or they don’t it could be equally game over for the Libs.
[This is a good area for Labor to atack]
It is only a good area because it keeps Tony on the backfoot and provides less space for journos to hammer junior ministers about newspolls, climate policy and rudd.
It is not a vote shifter.
[If the Tobacco industry was so bad, why haven’t it been banned by the ALP?]
If the Liberals are so evil as to support (and be supported by) an industry with death and disease its only ‘products’, why do you vote for them, Dovif? So your loved ones can die terrifying deaths from cancer of the lung?
[Quit simply Tobacco, Alcopop and Mining tax rises were …. oh! shit we stuffed the budget, now where do we get more money policy from the highest taxing government in Australian history]
How do you think tobacco got to be so expensive, even before the recent tax increase? That’s right, through multiple tax increases, by multiple governments, in the years and decades gone by. The way you’re talking Labor has set a precedent here, which of course they have not. You talk with forked-tongue, Liberal.
[The one where Bush ran as the ‘compassionate conservative’ and Gore got scared so he moved away from his firm environmnetal beliefs.
And it was finally decided in Florida (ie Brisvegas).]
And then Bush/Abbott get elected, show everyone they’re not compassionate in the slightest and turns the country into a cesspool. Perhaps I’m being unfair slightly 😛
Warren Truss at the Press Club today should be a hoot. 😉
JG looks like she has now officially shifted into the mode that Mike Rann shifted into in the final weeks of the SA election. Answer every question with ‘we have a plan for the ecomony, jobs etc’.
Its all we will hear from here until the end of the election.
Madonna King giving Tony an easy ride on Radio right now.
rua
Yes, the gritty and flamboyant Truss. There will be more midday naps than usual today.
On another matter, for those of you that have foxtel, the “Labor in Power” doco will start showing late Saturday afternoon on the history channel. There’s a bad pun in there as well, but I’m staying well clear.