The Australian offers geographic and demographic breakdowns of the last two Newspoll surveys, achieving reasonable samples from each subset due to the unusually large samples (around 1700) Newspoll uses during the election period. Age breakdowns offer the interesting finding that Labor has bounced back under Gillard in the 35-49 bracket, but if anything gone backwards among the young and old – or rather, remained stable on the primary vote while the Coalition has picked up a few points. The gender gap is four points on voting intention, seven on Gillard’s approval rating and ten on preferred prime minister, and appears to have widened steadily through the year on Tony Abbott’s approval.
The state breakdowns give us a useful opportunity to confirm their findings with Nielsen, the Fairfax papers having conducted a similar exercise from the three most recent polls (extending it to four for South Australia and Western Australia to boost the sample). I also offer a third measure of what the betting markets think, which involves a rough estimate of the statewide swings suggested by the odds SportingBet and SportsBet are offering on individual seats (more on this subject from occasional Poll Bludger commenter Dr Good). The table shows Labor’s two-party preferred vote:
| 2007 | Newspoll | Nielsen | Bookies | |
| NSW | 53.7% | 49% | 51% | 53% |
| Vic | 54.3% | 59% | 54% | 54% |
| Qld | 50.4% | 46% | 47% | 47% |
| WA | 46.7% | 46% | 46% | 46% |
| SA | 52.4% | 56% | 51% | 53% |
Some further (alleged) intelligence courtesy of internal polling:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Liberal polling in NSW has them doing “well” in “about five Labor-held marginal seats”, which include Macquarie and Robertson and to a lesser extent Dobell. The other two presumably include Gilmore, with a fifth harder to identify: the pendulum suggests Bennelong, Eden-Monaro and Page, where in each case the markets favour Labor. However, they Liberals were also said to be in trouble in Hughes and Macarthur. In Queensland, Leichardt and Dawson are said to be at risk, but Labor looks set to hold Longman and Flynn.
• The West Australian reports Nationals polling has Wilson Tuckey leading them in O’Connor by just 51-49, from primary votes of 38 per cent for Tuckey, 23 per cent for Nationals candidate Tony Crook, 21 per cent for Labor and 8 per cent for the Greens, with 10 per cent undecided.
• Markus Mannheim of the Canberra Times reports Liberal polling in the ACT shows the Greens vote actually falling since the 2007 election, which if accurate would put their dream of a Senate seat well beyond reach, if the Democrats’ decision to direct preferences to the Liberals hadn’t done it already.
We’ve had conflicting reports in recent days on party finances and campaign spending:
• Richard Gluyas of The Australian today reports the Liberals are struggling to raise funds. A media-buying source is quoted saying Labor ad spending has been especially conspicuous in the past week, with $19 million in advertising commitments for the length of the campaign splitting “55:45 in favour of Labor”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald, by contrast, reports Liberal television advertising has been 51 per cent more active than Labor’s, “as measured by audience exposure”:
Labor officials wondered aloud where a cash-strapped Liberal Party had managed to find the money, an answer which will not be disclosed officially for a year and a half. And the Liberals were struck by the fact that Labor had all but withdrawn from the advertising market in the second week of the campaign. After an active first week, Labor advertising airtime fell to zero in Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth, and near zero in Sydney, in week two. Labor continued normal campaign-level advertising only in Brisbane, presumably reflecting the high concentration of at-risk seats in Queensland. In a week in which Labor was taking a hiding in the news media and in the polls, the party decided to stop trying to reach voters with paid advertising as it husbanded its resources. “Labor have obviously come off for a reason,” Mr Durrant said. “I can’t see that it would be because they have run out of money but more likely it is a strategic decision to perhaps blitz the market in the final stretches when people are closer to making a decision, which could be quite smart given how much coverage and PR is being generated by them both.”
I can only say that the the Liberal Party doesn’t seem starved for funds in Western Australia. As well as running highly visible campaigns even in Labor’s safest seats, there is talk the state branch has found $1 million to spare for the national campaign.
So much for what they’re doing with their own money – here’s some of what they have planned for ours.
Petrie (Labor 2.3%): Last week Labor promised to spend $742 million building a fabled rail line from Petrie to Kippa-Ring. The Liberals responded by bringing forward their own planned announcement that $750 million would be put into the project. This evidently came as news to LNP Petrie candidate Dean Teasdale, whose initial reaction to Labor’s announcement was that this was not the time for such an expensive project. Tony Koch of The Australian notes the rail link has been the subject of fruitless election promises for 40 years, and it was first proposed as far back as the 1890s. The state government dropped plans to build the link six years ago after a study suggested it would be unviable, but last year was reported to be pushing to get the project “shovel ready” so it could be considered for federal funds. It emerged as an issue in the state election last March when Shadow Transport Minister Fiona Simpson flew solo with a promise it would be built by 2016, causing great embarrassment to her party.
Leichhardt (Labor 4.1%), Dawson (Labor 2.4%), Flynn (Labor 2.3%), Herbert (notional Labor 0.4%) and Hinkler (Nationals 1.5%): Queensland’s regional coastal seats were clearly the target of Tony Abbott’s announcement last week that they would limit the future expansion of marine parks, by requiring “peer-reviewed scientific evidence of a threat to marine diversity”. The announcement was made at Mackay in Dawson. Mackay has also been the scene of a bidding war over the construction of a new ring road: Wayne Swan promised $10 million for a feasibility study into a new ring road one week into the campaign, and Tony Abbott trumped him two days later by promising $30 million for design and engineering work.
Hasluck (Labor 1.0%) and Swan (notional Labor 0.3%): Labor last week promised to provide $480 million of $600 million sought by the Western Australian government to improve roads around Perth Airport, which will include widening Tonkin Highway to a six-lane freeway. There was also an as yet uncosted promise to provide funding to an upgrade of 4 kilometres of Great Eastern Highway.
Bass (Labor 1.0%): Last week Labor promised $11.5 million in finding for Launceston’s flood levees as part of the Natural Disaster Resilience Program.
Sturt (Liberal 0.9%) and Makin (Labor 7.7%): The Prime Minister last week announced $100 million in funding for stormwater harvesting and reuse, the first cab off the rank being a $10 million contribution to a pitch for $33 million by councils in eastern Adelaide. With the councils to fund half the cost, this left a $6 million hole which Labor wanted filled by a previously reluctant state government. The next day Tony Abbott trumped Labor by promising to put up the full $16.5 million. The Coalition has also promised $7.5 million to improve Fosters and Gorge roads in Sturt.
Gilmore (notional Labor 0.2%): Late last week Tony Abbott promised $20 million to upgrade a notorious section of the Princes Highway between Ulladulla and Batemans Bay.
Legal action:
• The GetUp!-sponsored legal challenge against the law requiring the electoral roll to close on the day the writs are issued will be heard in the High Court tomorrow. According to the Australin Financial Review, GetUp! will be supported by most of the legal team that acted for Vickie Roach in the 2007 action that overturned a Howard government law prohibiting prisoners from voting.
• A “Tasmanian antique dealer” has launched a legal challenge against Eric Abetz’s right to sit in parliament, arguing he remains a citizen of Germany, from which he emigrated in 1961 at the age of three. Constitutional expert and Labor preselection aspirant George Williams tells The Hobart Mercury there are “numerous pitfalls for any politician born overseas, or whose parents or even grandparents had been born overseas, to fall into, unawares and without intent, which could make them ineligible to sit in Parliament”.
Finally, there has as always been some interesting wash-up from the unveiling of Senate group voting tickets on Sunday, which I have summarised for an article in Crikey. Note the launch of the new awareness-raising website Below the Line, on which voters are encouraged to order and then print out their own Senate “how to vote” card.
Another day, another cave-in by Gillard:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/04/2973247.htm
It’s time for them to stop pandering to the elite and take a stand. Funnelling public money into the pockets of the super-rich is not the way to represent the workers of Australia.
Dee @869
Agree.
Dagget
I would have picked you as a “Cornelius” rather than a Tiberius!
For all those who think Abbot gaffed with the No means no comment your’e way off track. I actually think it did more good than harm to him.
Remember, cos of the preferential voting system elections are really about capturing the usually vacant and ignorant undecideds. The sort of people who get upset by this kind of stuff are probably already voting labor or green.
Abbott was well aware of the benefits of playing the ‘politically correct’ angle to the average joe’s who get really p’d off by this kind of ‘chattering class guff’. Ultimately its these people labor need to win the election.
[Federal Water Minister Penny Wong has challenged her Coalition counterpart Barnaby Joyce to a debate on water policy.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/04/2973454.htm?section=justin
Mick Wilkinson
I think the Coalition have let up on Rudd because he is ill, has been in hospital & any attack on him whilst he is in this position will rile the voters.
That simple!
I think Rudd needs to make the approach to the media himself, rather than something official coming from the Party, which will look like he has had his arm twisted to do something to help the Labor cause.
All he needs is a one-on-one interview on the couch at home with a “soft” journalist; Kev in his ‘recovering from surgery’ tracky daks having a cup of tea and a chat. He should tell us all how politics is a brutal game and, as he has challenged a leader himself in the past, he also understands how it feels to be on Julia’s side of the equation. He should stress that he holds no grudges and that as soon as he is well enough, he will be up and at ’em, campaigning both in his own seat and wherever the Party or the Nation’s voters would like to see him.
This would also be good for him, partly because I suspect he’s been missing the limelight, but also because if he is serious about wanting to play a senior role in the upcoming re-elected Gillard government, he needs to swallow his pride and start being a team player.
I’m sorry if that sounds a bit harsh, but winning this election is far more important than any individual’s ego. Labor need to defuse this issue and they can’t wait until the campaign launch to do it.
TSP ahh the Great Capt JTK the most famous person not to be born in Iowa
[I still think though that Turnbull would have been a better campaigner than Abbott.]
His policies would have been watertight.
[This election is not predictable no matter how much hubris you add to your pizza pie]
We should have a Pollbludger pizza night one day.
My God.
Bronnie is dressed up like an ancient Caledonian!
SMH on-line – a devastating critique by Peter Hartcher on the coalitions economic blunders. ALP should use it in an ad.
BK
Thanks for the heads up on Mark Kenny
The coalition know that every election they need to get a lot of voters to vote against their own self-interests. To get these turkeys to vote for Christmas, the party of business, sets out to rabble rouse with scary brown boat people, immigrants, burkas,faceless men,union thugs etc,etc,. They also lie about debt and deficit, school halls and so on.
They can achieve this most elections because the Libs can depend on the one_party media not ask the hard questions and/or to muddy the arguments with spurious nonsense like they did in the causes of global warming. They failed at the last election, because Howard, rubbed his army of Howard Battler’s noses in the shit of his Workchoices policy. They are now betting that these gullible dolts have forgotten and will vote again against their own self-interests, we will have to wait and see.
My view is Labor will pick up a few extra seats because Abbott has confessed to being a serial liar and will therefore fail to convince even the gullible.
victoria
Cornelius is is a good choice, then again so is Rupert or Randy. Just luicky my surbame isn’t Giles. Then I would be Randy Giles.
[All he needs is a one-on-one interview on the couch at home with a “soft” journalist]
Thats genius. No journo would refuse such a request.
[This election is not predictable no matter how much hubris you add to your pizza pie]
Hubris has a nasty way of causing expulsions of putrid gas, I’ve noticed.
BK. hahaha. i just turned to check to teev in the office. too funny.
SKY’s speers just asked a good question. “Will employers sack younger workers to get the extra $3000”
[Then I would be Randy Giles.]
Why not Horny Giles? Or Desperate for a shag Giles?
Too many TV references, I am looking increasingly pathetic!
Jen it’s a spurious question.
The demeanour of this conversation indicates that nothing happened on the election trail.
[SKY’s speers just asked a good question. “Will employers sack younger workers to get the extra $3000?]
I was thinking the same thing. In low skilled jobs you betcha they will.
[SKY’s speers just asked a good question. “Will employers sack younger workers to get the extra $3000?]
The media are really laying it on Abbott in the last few days I’ve noticed. I don’t want to jump the gun but could he… have jumped the shark?
victoria
[I remember that comment now. Are you suggesting that Rudd’s decision making over the past six months may have been impaired due to his declining health?]
Not necessarily. Just that the ‘Alleged’ knifing of Rudd may not be all that it seems.
Speers has picked up the question from the caller to Tone from this morning.
[The media are really laying it on Abbott in the last few days I’ve noticed. I don’t want to jump the gun but could he… have jumped the shark?]
He seems to have the teflon-like ability to slip his way out of a bad week/day unharmed.
[Jen it’s a spurious question.]
No its not, lots of unscrupulous employers — an extra $3000 for no extra employee (technically) — they’ll do it. A lot of those job start programs subsidised by govt — the poeple get ditched as soon as the money stops.
[SKY’s speers just asked a good question. “Will employers sack younger workers to get the extra $3000?
I was thinking the same thing. In low skilled jobs you betcha they will.]
Would unscrupulous small business owners cut corners with home insulation. Good heavens no.
scorpio,
The more I read your comments the more I wish Labor will loose.
I would have been devastated last election if Rudd had lost, but this time it won’t make much difference, so I might as well celebrate that at least one leader will loose. And Gillard getting kicked out may well feel better than Abbott just not winning.
By the way, it seems that in Higgins the Greens will have an open ticket – ie neither preferencing Labor nor Liberal.
Toorak Toff:
Thanks Toff, I thought it was just me. The ABC leads with any stuff from the Libs, State or Federal. It’s tabloid reporting, at its worst. It’s warped, skewed reporting but, I suggest, quite deliberate.
Ok whose policy is the old worker $3000 bonus, I have not been following it closeley enough.
TSP That was a good one, a cut above the usual pop culture refs here.
Speers just asked about equity for pensioners when they want to give $75,000 to young, well-paid women to have babies.
I’ve been asking that ever since they talked about this.
Speers obviously not impressed by the bagpipes wielding Bronnie.
My say,
[wish i had not read that wish you had not said that explain where do you sit]
Nothing I comment on here will make one skerick of difference to how the campaign goes from here on in to the 21st.
It’s all in the hands of the Labor campaign team and the media now.
I’m hopeful that Labor can pull the election out of the fire and win on the 21st, but I am certainly not overly optimistic about the chances of that right at the moment.
Teflon is in great supply in election campaigns – the caravan moves on, very quickly. Nothing lasts – a story, an image, a quote.
Why’s the onus on Rudd to “do the right thing”?
From this distance, it seems that Labor would prefer that he was completely invisible and not being talked about – Rudd really owes them nothing!
Let the man take the time to recover, and then he can do what he wants with his future.
[By the way, it seems that in Higgins the Greens will have an open ticket – ie neither preferencing Labor nor Liberal.]
Ahh you’re back — another ‘free’ month eh MWH.
Re: the above — nice try — it makes no difference in Higgins, does it — though I would like to see ‘that goofy smile’ ousted.
I reckon tonights news will be:
Tony dancing with old ladies, Tony commenting on the burka (perhaps)
Gillard talking economy
Perhaps a slight win to Tony on the imagery
Anthony’s Senate wonk calculator is online
http://www2b.abc.net.au/Elections/View/SenateCalculator.aspx?e=10&ca=nsw
[A lot of voting decisions will be made at the last minute. Labor can make it with a small majority of these people.]
Looking at some data on the Newspoll site for the 2004 election almost 30% decided their vote in the last week and that was generally consistant with prior elections. Does that still hold true?
[Perhaps a slight win to Tony on the imagery]
And a substantial win to Julia on substance
Loose isn’t a verb. Loosen is, but it needs an object. The more I read your comments the more I wish people could spell properly.
Help!
I’m on a small Qld island and the only paper is the OO! Not quite true, but you know what I mean, at least I’ve got PB for some reality check!
Cant believe the MSM have essentially let Tone off the hook with the “no means no” statements. Not a gaffe by the way, but an intentional statement. Gillard would have been fried for this although of course she would never be so stupid. Sam Maiden at the OO should hang her head in shame. Twittering her digust then on CH 9 and in the OO today defending Abbott. What a poor excuse for a so-called journalist.
I’m interested in how the Downer “things that batter” was protrayed at the time. Did the MSM play it down at the time? Can twitter and the internet keep the no means no spreading despite the MSM?
And correct me if I’m wrong but NO questions today about the no means no or the debate to Abbott? Tell me it isnt so?
But guess what, I’m optimistic. Julia looking great this week and even grumpy Oakes is giving her a positive run.
And Abbott’s figures are looking so rubbery, cant wait for the Treasury analysis, and the Hatcher’s and Mega’s to go it. How can the new scheme be cost neutral? How about the candidate who gets passed over for an older candidate? Surely they’ll claim benefits? Does is cost nothing to administer a scheme?
Did anyone see the pathetic defence in the OO against media watch accusations of bias. They basically said they put a nice Woman’s Weekly photo of Julia on the front page one day. Yes, forget the mountains of negative articles. What a laugh
My Say: Mum is actually voting Labor, she is one of the few teachers who approves of “My School”, and league tables don’t bother her in the slightest. 🙂
That bloke from the Education Union tends to prattle on about a load of nonsense.
Spectator, you say that as though substance counts for something…
The number of undecided was much lower in 2007, for 2010 the undecided were lower at the start of the campaing to now, there has been a notable drift higher. Also the proportion of undecideds is closer to 04 than 07.
Bob Katter’s TV ad is a ripper!
Sorry no link
The $3000 was a suck-up to the elderly who want to go back into the workforce from the Libs.
Bronny has been very queenly espousing her “elderly” credentials.
While they were waiting for Abbott this morning, Sky’s dumb blond practically wet herself fawning over Abbott, and then chatted to a couple of old ladies who were almost as orgasmic about TA.
It was sickening!
Looking at the Newspoll breakdowns, I’m not sure things are as dire as they first appear. Comparing the primary votes in Capitals & Non-capitals from the last election to now, the movements are interesting:
* The ALP vote in the Capitals has dropped 7.7%, BUT, the Coalition only picked up 0.3% of that; the rest went to the Greens (6.7%) and Others (0.7%). This suggests that almost all that will come back: nett drop in vote possibly of less than 1%.
* The ALP vote in the Non-capitals went from 39.8% to 39% – a drop of only 0.8%. The Green vote has gone up 0.9 % (from 7.1% to 8%) and the Liberal vote has gone from 44.2% to 46% (1.8%), which seems to have come from the Others (down 1.9% to 7%). Again, this seems to suggest very little nett movement away from the ALP.
My suspicion is that there are swings all over the shop: large swings back to the Coaltion in seats they already hold (ie the return to the fold of those who swung to Kevin07 last time) but that the marginals will hold up for Labor.
Bold prediction …
ALP returned with a nett loss of 3 seats.
TSOP and mysay: yes, we are going to win. I have the same shift in mood from affected confidence intended to reassure those around me to actual confidence. We don’t just need instinct, in the Possum I trust, just like last time. Have a look at the Possum’s spiffy simulation over at Pollytics – picked up in the SMH election blog too! – and then remind yourself that the conclusion of an ALP win being over 71% probable was based on the polls during the week from hell, and we are clearly moving forward from there with (1) the interest rate news (2) the permission that gives the ALP to play the economics themes hard from here and the signs that they know this (3) the real Tony Abbott appearing with his “does no really mean no” and (4) plenty of journalists opting for self-respect rather than the management line in responding to this – the lineup on the Australian online yesterday in this respect was something to see.
I would expect the betting markets to at least hold at current implied probability of around 73% for ALP win but quite possibly recover a few points to the high 70s in the next few days. Even a 20% chance of Abbott PM is awful of course but lets not get too depressed about it at this point.