Details here. More to follow.
UPDATE: Pardon my tardiness. Newspoll has Labor down two points on the primary vote to 40 per cent, the Coalition up four to 42 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent, all of which conforms better with long-term trends than last week’s result. However, the changes in personal ratings are significant enough to be a worry for Labor: Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down seven to 41 per cent and her disapproval up eight to 37 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval is up four points to 40 per cent and his disapproval down five to 46 per cent, and he has narrowed the gap on preferred prime minister from 57-26 to 50-34.
We also have a 52-48 result this morning from Galaxy, with primary vote figures that differ from Newspoll’s in that Labor is two points lower on 38 per cent and the Greens three points higher on 15 per cent, with the Coalition on 41 per cent. Also this morning comes a Patterson Market Research poll from Eden-Monaro which has Labor with a thumping 61-39 two-party lead from primary votes of 53 per cent for Labor member Mike Kelly, 36 per cent for Liberal candidate 36 per cent and 9 per cent for the Greens. This comes from Patterson’s usual small sample of a bit over 400, resulting in a margin of error of about 5 per cent. Essential Research should be along shortly.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research is unchanged from last week, with Labor’s two-party lead at 55-45. As in Newspoll, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are down, approval three points to 49 per cent and disapproval up three to 33 per cent. A move like this in the first week of an election campaign would be a concern for Labor: it’s tempting to link it to “moving forward” overkill. However, Tony Abbott does even worse: approval down five to 35 per cent, disapproval up two to 46 per cent. Preferred prime minister is basically unchanged, Gillard up one to 51 per cent and Abbott down one to 26 per cent. Also covered are interest in watching the debate, interest in the election generally, and – interestingly – whether Peter Costello would have made a better Liberal leader than Tony Abbott, which gives 45 per cent yes and 26 per cent no.
Cud chewer @ 1534
Because there are times when somebody has to stick their head above the parapet, and gain more respect for doing so…. even if they do get it knocked off. And if somebody has been the butt of bigotry, their story is all the more powerful.
i think obrien thought abbott was a pratt
Surely, there are countless others out there who feel that:
Julia Gillard is such a massive disappointment, and she has achieved that
so very quickly.
After the elation of getting the first woman as PM (my own six-year-old
daughter said: “Is it really true that there has never been a woman prime
minister before?” and I realised fully the potency of the moment), she has
been profoundly, deeply, devastatingly ineffectual, inadequate, small target,
gutless, small not big vision, drone-like, uninspiring.
Frankly, if Julia Gillard were a bloke, without the first woman novelty factor,
we would all be tearing strips off her. She is articulate and assured in her
public presentation but that’s it folks. That’s all there is.
Psephos,
But there is more to it than that.
Gillard’s more than the work experience girl with a knife.
Cud
Male imperialism V Female nationalism
(im male as well)
[No, you missed the point. I’m making a distinction The attitude is now one that the party “wants to avoid losing the election”.]
Semantics. They want to win. How surprisement.
Gusface@1555
And a Gruff one as well – as per Delroy 🙂
[That type of attack will not do JG any harm. She has given no indication of being a feminist.]
really i dont think there is such a thing and this sister hood nonsence, really gets to me what does it mean any way.
any way going now nite.
[Frankly, if Julia Gillard were a bloke, without the first woman novelty factor,
we would all be tearing strips off her. She is articulate and assured in her
public presentation but that’s it folks. That’s all there is.]
Beats Abbott.
Frank Calabrese@1557
Speaking of Delroy – Issue of the Day – Politics and the GenGender Divide.
[After the elation of getting the first woman as PM (my own six-year-old
daughter said: “Is it really true that there has never been a woman prime
minister before?” and I realised fully the potency of the moment), she has
been profoundly, deeply, devastatingly ineffectual, inadequate, small target,
gutless, small not big vision, drone-like, uninspiring.]
An American friend once said to me: “If you vote for a Kennedy, you’ll get a Nixon.” Which basically means that often the best leaders are those who were not that inspiring in their assent to power (therefore they govern harder to prove themselves) and the ones who are inspiring when rising to power end up disappointing…
eden monaro a doddle for labor 61 to 39 this seat always decides the govt of the day
[she has been profoundly, deeply, devastatingly ineffectual, inadequate, small target,
gutless, small not big vision, drone-like, uninspiring.]
You mean she hasn’t changed Australia in 3 weeks? My god the lazy ineffectual bitch. What’s taking her so long?
No Gary, that’s not what I mean. Obviously.
Gary@1563
Gough and Lance Barnard have a LOT to answer for 🙂
@1548, well that’s all very interesting, but if it really does require a referendum then so be it. Next…
OH, and congratulations!
You join the prestigious likes of Truthy and Andrew Bolt by spewing out misogynistic “You only support her because she’s a skirt!” crap!
[eden monaro a doddle for labor 61 to 39 this seat always decides the govt of the day]
Yes but that could change at any given election. There’s nothing magical about these seats. If we polled Leichardt (which is another bellwether seat) and found Labor were headed for a loss there we couldn’t extrapolate that they will lose the election, just that they might lose Leichardt.
[After the elation of getting the first woman as PM (my own six-year-old
daughter said: “Is it really true that there has never been a woman prime
minister before?” and I realised fully the potency of the moment), she has
been profoundly, deeply, devastatingly ineffectual, inadequate, small target,
gutless, small not big vision, drone-like, uninspiring]
Now tell me what do you expect her to be like with the press we have the main game is win the election.
she is also very wise and professional and after the election then she can get on with perhaps what you want its just the same old thing people expected to much of Kevin and put him on some sort of pedestal.
Now doing the same to Julia after all she is a woman and a mere mortal like us who has the guts and the go in her to aspire to public office.
those that whinge better join up and try their luck at public office.
alias loves her really
Frank
whats the number
one last try
🙁
alias there’s no use spouting your lines here. It’s not going to convince anyone. Just be honest about your political beliefs and leave it at that.
[alias loves her really]
as much as TP does.
[Because there are times when somebody has to stick their head above the parapet, and gain more respect for doing so…. even if they do get it knocked off. And if somebody has been the butt of bigotry, their story is all the more powerful.]
In other words stick your head up, get it shot off and come back in a bodybag a hero. Hmm, there has to be a better way.
Frankly,
If Gillard was a bloke, I’d be scared, very scared. Why am I scared?
Gusface@1571
1300 800 222
🙂
I’m quite certain that this whole line of “how disappointing that Gillard hasn’t revealed her true revolutionary radical feminist socialist self now that she’s achieved power” is being run by Liberal stooges as a provocation against Labor. Gillard is a cautious, pragmatic, gradualist Labor politician, just like all the leaders Labor has ever had, and which is all she ever claimed to be. She’s not Rosa Luxemburg in disguise and she’s not going to play the Liberal Party’s game by suddenly lurching to the left.
Good night.
I think that Julia Gillard had a chance to bask in that moment of glory for a while as the nations first female PM but she fluffed it by rushing off to the polls too soon and having to clear the decks with too much haste. Not that I think the ALP will not win, but they may rue the day they didn’t wait until October.
I would, in fact, dearly love to be able to love her, in an entirely gender neutral fashion. The disappointment is even greater than when the US Supreme Court ruled against Al Gore in the 2000 election, and that is saying something.
[Frankly, if Julia Gillard were a bloke, without the first woman novelty factor,
we would all be tearing strips off her.]
she not Guenevere or Joan of arc or Cleopatra she is Julia Gillard educated girl in this age not a mythical figure for goodness sake. She is not there because she is a woman she just happened to be in the right place and the right time for goodness sake she has only been there what 6 weeks and to take over as pm and then announce an election in my book is pretty good going.
for any one male or female she is doing it her way
[eden monaro a doddle for labor 61 to 39 this seat always decides the govt of the day]
If only it were that easy cupidstunt (love that name).
Sooner or later there’s going to be an election when it won’t happen. Let’s hope it’s not this one.
An argument against Hyde vs Hyde applying in Australia is that it defines marriage in Christendom and section 116 prevents parliament from establishing religion and this would presumably have an effect the definitions in the rest of the constitution too.
The ‘Gillard is a feminist’ meme is so predictable it’s a bit disappointing. What next? They’ll drag out that black and white footage of her looking shifty that they used in their “We Love WorkChoices” campaigns?
[think that Julia Gillard had a chance to bask in that moment of glory for a while as the nations first female PM but she fluffed it by rushing off to the polls too soon and having to clear the decks with too much haste. Not that I think the ALP will not win, but they may rue the day they didn’t wait until October.]
is that right that was what kroger and bolt said.
Gary
Sometimes even a hedgehog needs to uncurl.
my say
JG is doing what she can
which is what all of us try to do
I hope
My Say @ 1584
I didn’t know that they had said that.
[I think that Julia Gillard had a chance to bask in that moment of glory for a while as the nations first female PM but she fluffed it by rushing off to the polls too soon and having to clear the decks with too much haste. Not that I think the ALP will not win, but they may rue the day they didn’t wait until October.]
And give the Libs and MSM more time to do the dirt on her. No thanks.
Tom, a law defining marriage as between a man and a woman doesn’t necessarily have anything to do with religion or establishing a religion. In reality many laws are based on morals that might be said to have a religious underpinning. The Court is not likely to rule every such law as unconstitutional.
OMG, Brumby has announced an actual climate policy with actual real stuff in it and targets n shit.
Im SO SCARED Bailieu will run a scare campaign and ….turn voters against Labor!!
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/brumby-plan-exposes-gillard-20100726-10sp6.html?autostart=1
Why has he departed from the magic empty feelgood slogan formula thats always worked so well at federal level? Didnt he see the bounce Julia got from the Citizens assembly?
me too @1581
[Sometimes even a hedgehog needs to uncurl.]
All very cute but says nothing about real politic.
[i read it here on pb re she should wait till october.]
why
[Im SO SCARED Bailieu will run a scare campaign and ….turn voters against Labor!!]
They can’t they agree with it. They’re saying Labor has ripped it off from them. LOL.
Of all the people out there, I wouldn’t have expected Fran Kelly to nail Abbott on climate change. She referred to his comment that the people’s council thing was ridiculous and that there is a representative people’s council already there, and it’s called the Parliament. As Kelly rightly notes, it was taken there and agreed to last year, but the Senate overruled it! What sort of representation is that?
lefty e,
It’s a ruse to take attention from the inherently racist paradigm that dominates the Victorian Government.
I’m surprised you can be so easily fooled.
[I think that Julia Gillard had a chance to bask in that moment of glory for a while as the nations first female PM but she fluffed it by rushing off to the polls too soon and having to clear the decks with too much haste. Not that I think the ALP will not win, but they may rue the day they didn’t wait until October]
Have you forgotten all the crap that was going on when she called the election? It was wall to wall AS and East Timor and whether Rudd was hard done by.
(Remember Laurie Oakes’ helpful contribution).
She had to go when she did, or we’d still be mired in all that.
[She referred to his comment that the people’s council thing was ridiculous and that there is a representative people’s council already there, and it’s called the Parliament. As Kelly rightly notes, it was taken there and agreed to last year, but the Senate overruled it! ]
Well the Senate is part of the Parliament?
The big diffrence lefty is that Brumby has an opposition that won’t be running a scare campaign against him on it. Even you can see that surely.
Darn @ 1581
They used to say it once about Denison but then that damn dam got in the way and the Libs won it in 1983.
At some stage EM will fall the wrong way. Denison had it for 40 or so years and it will be 40 if the ALP win EM and the country this time. 1972 being the EM starting date – ironic as it was held by Labor for almost all the long Liberal years.